The 2026 Red Sox Foundation & One Possible Plan

[Hugh2]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

Definitely QO Gio. No-brainer. Though I suspect they may work out a deal with him. He seems to love it here and feels comfortable.

Chapman is a little trickier. He's not getting 22m in FA I don't think, but you maybe just take the option to make sure he's yours for 1 more year. If you believe he can get anywhere close to this again it's another no-brainer.

No such thing as a bad 1 year deal and all that.

That's essentially my take.  If I end up overpaying for one year.....whatever.  At Chapmans age, if he signs a 3 year deal he could be an all star closer again next year and completely fall off a cliff.  I think theres more risk with a multi year deal than a 1 year. 

A lot of it depends on what the Sox want to do.  If they don't have any plans to reset the LT, then it's a no brainer to me. 

The other day people were making a strong argument against giving Giolito the Q.O. but even I found any validity in their arguments I still offer it for the same reason "no such thing as a bad 1 year deal"

 

We've seen time and time again how the pitching market surprises.  Almost no one would have guessed Pivetta would get and reject a Q.O. last year and yet here we are. 

[Bellhorn04]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

Definitely QO Gio. No-brainer. Though I suspect they may work out a deal with him. He seems to love it here and feels comfortable.

Chapman is a little trickier. He's not getting 22m in FA I don't think, but you maybe just take the option to make sure he's yours for 1 more year. If you believe he can get anywhere close to this again it's another no-brainer.

No such thing as a bad 1 year deal and all that.

No such thing as a bad 1 year deal is very questionable.  In some cases it just means it could have been worse.  Corey Kluber comes to mind.  

[Hugh2]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

No such thing as a bad 1 year deal is very questionable.  In some cases it just means it could have been worse.  Corey Kluber comes to mind.  

I mean to me this is just a semantics battle.  Corey Kluber is a fine example, because yeah......it could have been much worse.  I'm all for the low low risk one year deal.  Even if 50% of them are Corey Klubers you get the upside on the other guys, offer the QO, and get the draft pick and keep the pipeline pumping. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

I mean to me this is just a semantics battle.  Corey Kluber is a fine example, because yeah......it could have been much worse.  I'm all for the low low risk one year deal.  Even if 50% of them are Corey Klubers you get the upside on the other guys, offer the QO, and get the draft pick and keep the pipeline pumping. 

You make it sound like cake. 🙂

Just kidding.  I agree it's mostly semantics.

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You make it sound like cake. 🙂

Just kidding.  I agree it's mostly semantics.

Well I'd say it's quite the opposite of cake, because you're going to have your Klubers and your Buehlers, but whatever it's one year.  A market like Boston SHOULD be able to stomach those bad one year deals to get the good ones. 

My problem with the Kluber signing wasn't the move itself, it was the fact that was ALL THEY DID.  This year, CB2 didn't just go out and sign Buehler, he also traded for Crochett, AND extended him.  To me that makes all the difference in the world. 

[Hugh2]

also cake is good.....I want cake. 

[mvp 78]

56 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

No such thing as a bad 1 year deal is very questionable.  In some cases it just means it could have been worse.  Corey Kluber comes to mind.  

A big market team like the Sox should be able to eat a bad contract for one year. 

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

A big market team like the Sox should be able to eat a bad contract for one year. 

They can and they do.  As Hugh said, the real problem with the Kluber signing was that it was the only signing for the rotation that year.  

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

And have a nice stadium, now!

The Pirates have one of the nicest stadiums in MLB and that ownership group is one of the top 3 worst in the game. 

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The Pirates have one of the nicest stadiums in MLB and that ownership group is one of the top 3 worst in the game. 

It just makes the situation that much sadder.

I could be wrong, but I seem to remember that BAL and PIT did not even sell out playoff games back in the 70's. There seems to be something about those cities not being lovers of the game.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What was obnoxious about Bloom filling the shopping bag from the bargain bins is that for the price of just two Klubers, the Red Sox could have had one Eovaldi-type instead. 

Nobody is guaranteed; maybe none of us would have given Jordan Montgomery a ride from the airport to Fenway a few years ago, but I bet we'd all have chipped in a dollar each to hire Uber.

And now Nate is injured again, after a great year -- just like Sale before the playoffs last season... but everyone knows what I mean.

What we really don't understand are all the actual changes that Bailey and his staff make to improve new pitchers. There are stories behind everyone. Why is Bello better? Why are Pivetta and Priester better elsewhere? Why hasn't Harrison -- a guy Bailey worked with in the past -- evolved like Logan Webb? Did Giolito's body finally accept the alterations his mind bought into two years ago?

Whoever the Sox sign or trade for this winter to help the rotation, we have to trust they're guys management believes it can remodel into upgrades.

[notin]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

No such thing as a bad 1 year deal is very questionable.  In some cases it just means it could have been worse.  Corey Kluber comes to mind.  

The proper saying is “theres no such thing as a bad minor league deal.”  Not applicable to Mr. Chapman…

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

The Pirates have one of the nicest stadiums in MLB and that ownership group is one of the top 3 worst in the game. 

There could be a cause-effect thing here.  Maybe it’s such a nice stadium because it never gets trashed by large crowds of unruly fans…

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

There could be a cause-effect thing here.  Maybe it’s such a nice stadium because it never gets trashed by large crowds of unruly fans…

Yinzers... (said pejoratively)

[cp176]

Keeping Gio, Bregman and Chapman on this roster is a no brainer for me.  I have no idea how they do it necessarily nor how much it might cost but it just seems logical.  Once again, I would say that Bregman should get a forever contract if that is what it takes.  When his playing days are behind him, I would like to see him on the coaching staff in some capacity.  As for needs going forward - a top of the line starting pitcher and one big bat.  Not sure Ryan is the guy simply because of What Minnesota might want from us.  

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, cp176 said:

Keeping Gio, Bregman and Chapman on this roster is a no brainer for me.  I have no idea how they do it necessarily nor how much it might cost but it just seems logical.  Once again, I would say that Bregman should get a forever contract if that is what it takes.  When his playing days are behind him, I would like to see him on the coaching staff in some capacity.  As for needs going forward - a top of the line starting pitcher and one big bat.  Not sure Ryan is the guy simply because of What Minnesota might want from us.  

We have a lot of extensions kicking in, next year, but few costly arbs. We lost the Devers contract and will lose some contracts that brought us zero or negative value: $21M Buehler & $5M Hendriks. On the surface, it appears we should be able to afford Bregman, Chapman, Gio and one significant FA signing or trade for a higher cost player, but JH is a big unknown. 

I'd like to think he sees the window wide open and makes this a high spending season in his decades long trend of spending in cycles. I think we are more likely to "overpay" in players going to MIN for Ryan than overpaying by giving Cease, King or Framber a mega contract with 2-3 years more than should be. Ryan is not a financial burden, so trading for him allows us to keep our players and maybe add a less costly right-side infielder via free agency. Hell, Alonso will cost less than Framber or Cease.

[drewski6]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We have a lot of extensions kicking in, next year, but few costly arbs. We lost the Devers contract and will lose some contracts that brought us zero or negative value: $21M Buehler & $5M Hendriks. On the surface, it appears we should be able to afford Bregman, Chapman, Gio and one significant FA signing or trade for a higher cost player, but JH is a big unknown. 

I'd like to think he sees the window wide open and makes this a high spending season in his decades long trend of spending in cycles. I think we are more likely to "overpay" in players going to MIN for Ryan than overpaying by giving Cease, King or Framber a mega contract with 2-3 years more than should be. Ryan is not a financial burden, so trading for him allows us to keep our players and maybe add a less costly right-side infielder via free agency. Hell, Alonso will cost less than Framber or Cease.

We have a very good rotation right now and you are adding Tolle, Sandoval, Dobbins, k. craw, houck

We dont need Ryan.

 

[drewski6]

Crochet, Bello, Tolle, Gio, Sandoval, Dobbins, Crawford, Harrison, Houck, Criswell

Offseason should address the offense and bullpen.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

We have a very good rotation right now and you are adding Tolle, Sandoval, Dobbins, k. craw, houck

We dont need Ryan.

 

Houck is out until 2027. 

We have a great 3 SP'ers and Gio will likely be a FA, so that's 2.

This season, we had a rotation with about 12 pitcher depth, and we still needed to trade for May.

We need two Ryans.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Houck is out until 2027. 

We have a great 3 SP'ers and Gio will likely be a FA, so that's 2.

This season, we had a rotation with about 12 pitcher depth, and we still needed to trade for May.

We need two Ryans.

Tolle is a beast and we should bring Gio back.  Your #5 starter can be a .500 guy who doesnt start in the playoffs.  Between Sandoval, Crawford, Dobbins, one shoudl be fine enough for #5 starter with the other 2 serving as solid depth.  Plus more arms down on the farm.

Crochet, Bello, Tolle and Gio do the heavy lifting.  Meanwhile , we bat a catcher in the cleanup spot sometimes.  This team needs offense more than it does pitching.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Tolle is a beast and we should bring Gio back.  Your #5 starter can be a .500 guy who doesnt start in the playoffs.  Between Sandoval, Crawford, Dobbins, one shoudl be fine enough for #5 starter with the other 2 serving as solid depth.  Plus more arms down on the farm.

Crochet, Bello, Tolle and Gio do the heavy lifting.  Meanwhile , we bat a catcher in the cleanup spot sometimes.  This team needs offense more than it does pitching.

I was not counting Gio, when I said we need Ryan. Without Gio, we need two Ryans.

We went into this year with a solid 5 and another 6-7 depth starters:

Crochet, Houck, Bello, Gio and Buehler.

Depth: Crawford, Newcomb, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Criswell & Sandoval for AUG>

We also had Wink, Whitlock, Murphy and others who were considered swing men, before.

We traded Priester and added D May. We traded Newcomb and added Harrison.

We still struggle with our #4 and #5, now.

I don't want our # 4 & #5 to be a typical #4 and #5. That is not a winning startegy, as someone will get hurt or suck, and you end up with your 12th starter as your #4 or 5.

I'd like to see Crochet, Ryan, Bello, Gio & Keller.

Depth: Sandoval, Dobbins, Crawford, Fitts, Harrison, plus Tolle, Early & Perales.

[moonslav59]

Ooops

[drewski6]

57 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I was not counting Gio, when I said we need Ryan. Without Gio, we need two Ryans.

We went into this year with a solid 5 and another 6-7 depth starters:

Crochet, Houck, Bello, Gio and Buehler.

Depth: Crawford, Newcomb, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Criswell & Sandoval for AUG>

We also had Wink, Whitlock, Murphy and others who were considered swing men, before.

We traded Priester and added D May. We traded Newcomb and added Harrison.

We still struggle with our #4 and #5, now.

I don't want our # 4 & #5 to be a typical #4 and #5. That is not a winning startegy, as someone will get hurt or suck, and you end up with your 12th starter as your #4 or 5.

I'd like to see Crochet, Ryan, Bello, Gio & Keller.

Depth: Sandoval, Dobbins, Crawford, Fitts, Harrison, plus Tolle, Early & Perales.

So I think Tolle is a beast and needs to be in the top 4.  Between Sandoval, Dobbins, Crawford, Fitts, Harrison, Early & Perales - I think this handles 5-7

Then just resign Gio.  

This is very good, it doesnt scream to me that we should trade one of our only power hitters (Abreu) or our emotional leader (Duran)

Sho8uld we lose Gio, prob want a pitcher but I still dont think I trade Duran or Abreu. I would consider a trade  for Keller or resigning May for the #4 (should we not keep Gio).

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

So I think Tolle is a beast and needs to be in the top 4.  Between Sandoval, Dobbins, Crawford, Fitts, Harrison, Early & Perales - I think this handles 5-7

Then just resign Gio.  

This is very good, it doesnt scream to me that we should trade one of our only power hitters (Abreu) or our emotional leader (Duran)

Sho8uld we lose Gio, prob want a pitcher but I still dont think I trade Duran or Abreu. I would consider a trade  for Keller or resigning May for the #4 (should we not keep Gio).

I'm not so sure it's all that easy to say, "Just sign Gio," but of course one could say the same to me when I say, "Just trade for Ryan." One choice does not involve trading away a key player, so that looks better, on paper, but in reality, is JH really going to rework Bregman's deal, give Chapman a raise to stay here, pay all the new extensions and also pay Gio? I sure hope so, but even if he does, I still think we need Ryan, too.

I wrote about the long list of SP'er depth we had over the winter. Look what happened. We ended up with Newcomb in the rotation to start the season! Our "ace" from 2024 floundered then went on the IL and will miss 2026, too. Crawford missed the whole season, and our $21M solution pitcher was just demoted to the pen. Criswell filled in nicely, last year- on the IL now. Dobbins was kind of an unknown and might have been slotted 11th or 12th, and he went out for the season.

Now, we are supposed to count on the same names, but less of them with Buehler, Houck, and newcomb all gone to help us just stay even with this year? No disrespect, here, but count me out.

1. I think penciling in Tolle as a top 4 SP'er is a big risk, despite me thinking he may be as good as Ryan real soon. He may also have his inning restricted in 2026. 

2. Gio is not on the list until we sign him, so it's Crochet, Bello and maybe Tolle for 150 IP.

3. Your list of Sandoval, Dobbins, Crawford, Fitts, Harrison, Early & Perales should be our 5-7 starters not 4-7.

4. I see it like this:

Option A (We bring Gio back): Crochet, Ryan, Bello, Gio and Tolle, Sandoval, Dobbins, Crawford, Fitts, Harrison, Early & Perales as 5-7.

Option B (No Gio): Crochet, Ryan, Bello, Keller and Tolle, Sandoval, Dobbins, Crawford, Fitts, Harrison, Early & Perales as 5-7.

We need to look at improving our rotation- not keeping it about the same and hoping we have less injuries.

[Duran Is The Man]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not so sure it's all that easy to say, "Just sign Gio," but of course one could say the same to me when I say, "Just trade for Ryan." One choice does not involve trading away a key player, so that looks better, on paper, but in reality, is JH really going to rework Bregman's deal, give Chapman a raise to stay here, pay all the new extensions and also pay Gio? I sure hope so, but even if he does, I still think we need Ryan, too.

I wrote about the long list of SP'er depth we had over the winter. Look what happened. We ended up with Newcomb in the rotation to start the season! Our "ace" from 2024 floundered then went on the IL and will miss 2026, too. Crawford missed the whole season, and our $21M solution pitcher was just demoted to the pen. Criswell filled in nicely, last year- on the IL now. Dobbins was kind of an unknown and might have been slotted 11th or 12th, and he went out for the season.

Now, we are supposed to count on the same names, but less of them with Buehler, Houck, and newcomb all gone to help us just stay even with this year? No disrespect, here, but count me out.

1. I think penciling in Tolle as a top 4 SP'er is a big risk, despite me thinking he may be as good as Ryan real soon. He may also have his inning restricted in 2026. 

2. Gio is not on the list until we sign him, so it's Crochet, Bello and maybe Tolle for 150 IP.

3. Your list of Sandoval, Dobbins, Crawford, Fitts, Harrison, Early & Perales should be our 5-7 starters not 4-7.

4. I see it like this:

Option A (We bring Gio back): Crochet, Ryan, Bello, Gio and Tolle, Sandoval, Dobbins, Crawford, Fitts, Harrison, Early & Perales as 5-7.

Option B (No Gio): Crochet, Ryan, Bello, Keller and Tolle, Sandoval, Dobbins, Crawford, Fitts, Harrison, Early & Perales as 5-7.

We need to look at improving our rotation- not keeping it about the same and hoping we have less injuries.

aren't the chances of Gio's option borderline on kicking in? though unlikely and theoretically, the  Sox could hold him back a bit to trigger the club option for '26. wouldn't this give the Sox a bit of leverage in getting him to sign a new contract?

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

aren't the chances of Gio's option borderline on kicking in? though unlikely and theoretically, the  Sox could hold him back a bit to trigger the club option for '26. wouldn't this give the Sox a bit of leverage in getting him to sign a new contract?

He would need to get hurt, IMO, to not trigger the mutual option. The Sox will not limit his innings for the trigger clause to not happen. I am sure of that. He only need 21 IP in 5 or 6 more starts. 

I guess he could have a couple bad games, where they yank him after 1-3 IP, and then it becomes borderline, but I think the odds are he gets the option in his favor. If we are up 7 games with 10 to go, maybe they skip a start, but do you really want to get him mad?

(He shouldn't get mad, since he gave us nothing and earned $19M in 2024, so he owes us one. We shoulda made the clause 200 or 240 IP over 2 seasons.)

[moonslav59]

Our OF situation begs for relief:

Anthony- Has it all. He is a FT'er who can play all 3 OF positions, but likely best in corner OF.

Rafaela- Excellent defense, despie too many errors, lacks plate discipline but may be okay. Good runner.

Duran- Great speed, decent defense in LF, not so good batting vs LHPs.

Abreu- Very good defense in RF, may start batting vs LH SPs, next year.

Jh Garcia- Could be the RHB OF'er we have needed.

Campbell- LF is probably his best landing spot.

Refsnyder- corner OF vs LHPs only

Yoshida- emergency corner OF only

Only 3 can play in the OF and 1 can DH. Rafaela can play middle Infield but why waste his OF defense?

I gotta think someone not names Anthony and probably Rafaela is traded, this winter- maybe even two from this list. (Ref may retire & Masa might be DFA'd.)

 

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He would need to get hurt, IMO, to not trigger the mutual option. The Sox will not limit his innings for the trigger clause to not happen. I am sure of that. He only need 21 IP in 5 or 6 more starts. 

I guess he could have a couple bad games, where they yank him after 1-3 IP, and then it becomes borderline, but I think the odds are he gets the option in his favor. If we are up 7 games with 10 to go, maybe they skip a start, but do you really want to get him mad?

(He shouldn't get mad, since he gave us nothing and earned $19M in 2024, so he owes us one. We shoulda made the clause 200 or 240 IP over 2 seasons.)

i wasn't sure. thanks. and you're right, he does kinda "owe" us. very, very favorable contract for him.

[moonslav59]

Whodathunk we'd be begging for Gio to come back.

Think of all the grief Brez took for that signing that was linked to the Sale trade and cost savings that allowed us to "upgrade" from the Kluber like $10M/1 deals to $39M/2.

Still, $39M/1 was a great deal for Gio.

[drewski6]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Our OF situation begs for relief:

Anthony- Has it all. He is a FT'er who can play all 3 OF positions, but likely best in corner OF.

Rafaela- Excellent defense, despie too many errors, lacks plate discipline but may be okay. Good runner.

Duran- Great speed, decent defense in LF, not so good batting vs LHPs.

Abreu- Very good defense in RF, may start batting vs LH SPs, next year.

Jh Garcia- Could be the RHB OF'er we have needed.

Campbell- LF is probably his best landing spot.

Refsnyder- corner OF vs LHPs only

Yoshida- emergency corner OF only

Only 3 can play in the OF and 1 can DH. Rafaela can play middle Infield but why waste his OF defense?

I gotta think someone not names Anthony and probably Rafaela is traded, this winter- maybe even two from this list. (Ref may retire & Masa might be DFA'd.)

 

Our SP situation begs for relief:

Crochet - Has it all. A true top of the rotation piece who anchors your entire lineup both reg season and playoffs
Bello - Has emerged as a true #2.  Theyve even started letting him go through opposing lineups a third time, something only reserved for a few pitchers. 
Tolle - A stud of a prospect and a 6'6 lefty who dominates every stop.  A must have in your rotation next year
Gio - Will need to be resigned but really has come on as of late.  Looking like a #2 himself who prob slots in as our #4
Dobbinss - A rookie leaving quite the impression before an injury zapped the remainder of his sesaon. But he looks like he can pitch in MLB
Sandoval - A wildcard who last we saw was a #3 , might get squeezed due to all these studs
Criswell - A guy who has come to earn our trust if ever needed for a spot start
K. Crawford - Another forgotten man who should be much higher than way down here.  Dude was a #2 pitcher as recently as 2-3 years ago and now hes our what #8?
7 of our top 10 prospects are SP. One has been previously mentioned.  One is too young and one is prob for the pen. So heres another 4, pitchers 9,10,11,12
Fitts/Weis - not bad for #13,14

Oops forgot Kyle Harrison

Meanwhile, when I sort by OPS+, of the full-timers that are guaranteed to be here for next year - Abreu is second. Duran is third. They are only behind Anthony, who is likely to have a bit of a sophmore slump next year when the league adjusts

So we traded our best hitte this year (devers) and now you want to trade our new by default one of our best hitters because you can foresee us needing 12 pitchers when I just named you 15

Devalue offense much?

We need 2-3 good hitters, Id sign one and trade some of our surplus of arms for one.

Our lineup last night went 
Rookie
Guy who is going to opt out and we could lose
Story (not really a #3 guy and an injury risk, so we're not looking great here)
Journeyman
Journeyman
Career minor leaguer
Catcher 
Noodlebat
Rookie

But tell me how we need to trade offense because you want 5 excellent starers and 7 great ones behind them.