Extend or trade Bregman and Chapman

[Sox 42]

Offer both extensions before the trade deadline.  1 year for Chapman and 4 year for Bregman.  Hope for home team discount.  If they decline - trade them before deadline.  This is the business sell high theory as the return should be significant,  Both are expected to become free agents after the season.  If so the Sox can bid for their services like the other teams.

[moonslav59]

I'd give Chapman $12M/1 with a second year club option at $12M with a $2M buyout. (Basically, $14M/1 or $24M/2.)

I agree on Bregman. I'd love 3, but 4 gets him to sign, IMO.

[Sox 42]

You and me moonslav59

[Charlie Hoke]

I don't think Bregman has been here long enough to give us a home town discount, especially with his agent being Scott Boras, who always seems to be looking to maximize his agent fee, which means maximizing a player's contract amount. :(

For Chapman, the question is how much will a 38 year old closer have in the tank for the next year or two?

[Jasonbay44]

3 hours ago, Charlie Hoke said:

I don't think Bregman has been here long enough to give us a home town discount, especially with his agent being Scott Boras, who always seems to be looking to maximize his agent fee, which means maximizing a player's contract amount. :(

For Chapman, the question is how much will a 38 year old closer have in the tank for the next year or two?

That is my issue with Chapman. What he is doing at age 37 is phenomenal and almost unheard of, at least velocity wise but Father Time catches up with everyone eventually. Almost no one leaves the game on top and sometimes it’s hard to predict when it will happen. Justin Verlander is currently one of worst pitchers in baseball

[Hitch]

I'd trade Chapman even if we have a winning record between now and the deadline. 

I get why that horrifies people but if you land it in the way previous organisations have - there will be several moments across the next 4/5 years where you'll say to yourself - can you believe we got this for 3 months of Chapman?

That's not to say we will land it, but you can't let fear guide that decision. You don't get these opportunities often. You have to take them. 

[Hitch]

Also, I think we're heading exactly for where we don't want to be - around .500 and not knowing what the best course of action is with our assets, ending up with us picking  a middle lane again. 

With luck, we pick up some wins over the next 8 days - I fear we won't get many and that the ASB has killed the momentum. 

[Hugh2]

You're almost certainly trading them then if you demand a home team discount. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

I'd trade Chapman even if we have a winning record between now and the deadline. 

I get why that horrifies people but if you land it in the way previous organisations have - there will be several moments across the next 4/5 years where you'll say to yourself - can you believe we got this for 3 months of Chapman?

That's not to say we will land it, but you can't let fear guide that decision. You don't get these opportunities often. You have to take them. 

Chapman deadline trades have yielded Gleyber Torres and Cole Ragans.  Torres has been a decent player but Yankee fans were fine seeing him go.  Ragans had a great 2024 but is having a nightmare 2025.

There are no guarantees that trading Chapman would bring back anything that would excite you 2-3 years from now.  In return for that chance you're giving up on a season and all the time, money and emotion that's invested in it.

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Chapman deadline trades have yielded Gleyber Torres and Cole Ragans.  Torres has been a decent player but Yankee fans were fine seeing him go.  Ragans had a great 2024 but is having a nightmare 2025.

There are no guarantees that trading Chapman would bring back anything that would excite you 2-3 years from now.  In return for that chance you're giving up on a season and all the time, money and emotion that's invested in it.

Torres was the Cubs No1 prospect and went on to become an all star. Ragans had a season and a bit with the Royals when he had an ERA of 2.90 and 7.6 WAR. Yes he's struggled this year, but was also recently diagnosed with a rotator cuff tear and shut down. 

If you're telling me we can get pitching like that or a No1 prospect who goes onto be an all star - count me in.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

Torres was the Cubs No1 prospect and went on to become an all star. Ragans had a season and a bit with the Royals when he had an ERA of 2.90 and 7.6 WAR. Yes he's struggled this year, but was also recently diagnosed with a rotator cuff tear and shut down. 

If you're telling me we can get pitching like that or a No1 prospect who goes onto be an all star - count me in.

To each their own.  I've had enough of the future-gazing.  But the fact I'm pushing 70 might have something to do with that.

[notin]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

To each their own.  I've had enough of the future-gazing.  But the fact I'm pushing 70 might have something to do with that.

If the Sox extend Chapman, his fastball might be pushing 70 at some point as well.

Would getting the next Gleyber really be “future gazing”?  He posted 3.4 bWAR as a rookie and made the All Star team…

 

[Hitch]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

To each their own.  I've had enough of the future-gazing.  But the fact I'm pushing 70 might have something to do with that.

I hear you - I understand why people like yourselves feel that way. It just feels too good an opportunity to get something we usually could not get at this kind of price. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Looking at them right now, which guy is more likely to break down sooner in the next few years: Chapman the physical specimen or Bregman the hobbling hobbit?

[Duran Is The Man]

40 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

To each their own.  I've had enough of the future-gazing.  But the fact I'm pushing 70 might have something to do with that.

same here. some people tend to forget how few prospects every make it as productive every day players.

for every Chapman, or Bregman or Devers, there are about a thousand Jeter Downs.

[notin]

13 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Looking at them right now, which guy is more likely to break down sooner in the next few years: Chapman the physical specimen or Bregman the hobbling hobbit?

History says the 38yo whose career depends on his ability to sling his arm such that his hand is traveling at 102mph…

[moonslav59]

I'd offer Chapman $12M/1 with a team option for 2027 at $12M with a $2M buyout.

He gets $14M/1 or $24M/2.

[mvp 78]

Chapman hadn't had an ERA below 3 since 2019. He's turning back the clock this year, but I wouldn't expect him to keep it up for a few more years beyond this. He has a career low WHIP this season. This is the best he's ever pitched. Enjoy it while it lasts IMO. His performance is house money right now. 

[notin]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Chapman hadn't had an ERA below 3 since 2019. He's turning back the clock this year, but I wouldn't expect him to keep it up for a few more years beyond this. He has a career low WHIP this season. This is the best he's ever pitched. Enjoy it while it lasts IMO. His performance is house money right now. 

… which is why I wouldn’t rule out dealing him.

If it was me, I would only deal him for MY price.  Not necessarily for best offer as I would be content holding him.  But if, say, Philly offer Andrew Painter, I’m shipping Aroldis out.  Not that in reality I expect that offer.  (Painter was chosen because, among MLB.com top 100 pitching prospects on teams that need a closer, Painter’s #19 ranking was the closest to Gleyber Torres’ 2016 MLB.com ranking of 28.)

It’s not the only offer I’d accept.  But it’s an example..

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

… which is why I wouldn’t rule out dealing him.

If it was me, I would only deal him for MY price.  Not necessarily for best offer as I would be content holding him.  But if, say, Philly offer Andrew Painter, I’m shipping Aroldis out.  Not that in reality I expect that offer.  (Painter was chosen because, among MLB.com top 100 pitching prospects on teams that need a closer, Painter’s #19 ranking was the closest to Gleyber Torres’ 2016 MLB.com ranking of 28.)

It’s not the only offer I’d accept.  But it’s an example..

For a team that is trying to compete for the playoffs and has not reasonable replacement for closer, I'm not sure they can trade him at this point. If they didn't go on the 10 game winning streak, it was definitely on the table. This team would have to completely fall apart for them to deal him. I think they are buyers at this point. 

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

… which is why I wouldn’t rule out dealing him.

If it was me, I would only deal him for MY price.  Not necessarily for best offer as I would be content holding him.  But if, say, Philly offer Andrew Painter, I’m shipping Aroldis out.  Not that in reality I expect that offer.  (Painter was chosen because, among MLB.com top 100 pitching prospects on teams that need a closer, Painter’s #19 ranking was the closest to Gleyber Torres’ 2016 MLB.com ranking of 28.)

It’s not the only offer I’d accept.  But it’s an example..

You aren't getting any offer close to Painter for Chapman, IMO.

 

[Jean-Sébastien Blouin]

I would check to see what I can get for both while negotiating especially for Bregman. I would look at what Boras wants for Chapman and seek a good trade to get a starter or a solid younger reliever because at his age I'm not sure he'll have such a good season next year.

[Bellhorn04]

8 hours ago, notin said:

If the Sox extend Chapman, his fastball might be pushing 70 at some point as well.

Would getting the next Gleyber really be “future gazing”?  He posted 3.4 bWAR as a rookie and made the All Star team…

 

To me 'future gazing' and 'wait till next year' can be one and the same.  Trading Chapman is a wait till next year move.

Gleyber has averaged 3.0 bWAR per 162 games.  A little above average but he hasn't lived up to expectations.