Article: Red Sox Rumors: Duran-Padres Link Grows Stronger, Bregman Trade Rumor Shot Down

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Campbell has a surplus value of $46mill

Keller has a surplus value of no $34.2 mill and Bednar somehow has a surplus value of $6.3mill, which is a lot for a guy who sucks.  But that Pitt package is worth $40.5mill, making Campbell an overpay, but not an egregious  one.  It’s certainly a viable deal, BTV or not, and one I can’t see Pitt rejecting. I wouldn’t make it myself as I still have faith in Campbell. 

Pitt could even put the deal by sending back Nick Yorke!

Yorke is the same age as Campbell and has a higher AAA OPS. 😩

[sk7326]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think the Sox want to utilize the farm for trades and call ups. I think some posters don't see any value in the farm except for trades (SUSPECTS!). A big reason you want to have starters be young guys you call up from AAA is that they cost very little and/or have no long term commitment for 6-7 years. 

If the Sox could deal from the farm to get a guy like Ryan and keep the MLB team rolling for the next 5 years, they'd do it. I just don't know if they have the ponies on the farm at the moment. The farm is taking a bit of a step back now that Mayer and Anthony are graduating. It's why I saw a story this morning that the Sox are more likely to get a lower end guy like Heaney/Galen that would cost a lot less and have a lower ceiling. 

LOL.  The farm is there to serve the big league club so you have to be pragmatic.

My guess is if the team trades, you are looking at that sort of next tier ... guys that probably have appeal to a significant number of teams.  If a team thinks Mikey Romero can step in and be a reasonable 2B/OF next season I could see that (he's still so young).  The Red Sox also have interesting guys like Valera and Soto who are just so far away (and Valera being a pitcher comes with the health risk).  And if a team's scouts or models liked Miguel Bleis, are they still in?  

And that probably is not going to get you a super premium guy.  I think the only way the Sox put in a Top 10 prospect is if we are talking about some guy who feels like he shouldn't be available (like Kris Bubic).

[notin]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sure? For what though? I wouldn't do it for a 2 month rental. 

Campbell has a surplus value of $46mill on BTV, as mentioned before.

His closest matches among SPs is Tanner Bibee, valued at $47.3mill.

Bibee is having a rough year, and is owed some $45 mill thru 2029 with an option for 2030.  Cleveland heavily backloaded this deal, a common tactic among small market teams, often with the plan to move the player before the yeas get to expensive.  
 

Would you trade Campbell for Bibee?  Would Cleveland?

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, sk7326 said:

LOL.  The farm is there to serve the big league club so you have to be pragmatic.

My guess is if the team trades, you are looking at that sort of next tier ... guys that probably have appeal to a significant number of teams.  If a team thinks Mikey Romero can step in and be a reasonable 2B/OF next season I could see that (he's still so young).  The Red Sox also have interesting guys like Valera and Soto who are just so far away (and Valera being a pitcher comes with the health risk).  And if a team's scouts or models liked Miguel Bleis, are they still in?  

And that probably is not going to get you a super premium guy.  I think the only way the Sox put in a Top 10 prospect is if we are talking about some guy who feels like he shouldn't be available (like Kris Bubic).

Romero is a good trade fit for some clubs. He is MIF with a lot of power. He doesn't have a clear path here and is closer to MLB (and Rule 5 issues) than others in the MIF pipeline. 

We're ok with dealing from prospects that are far away, but I think other teams aren't heavy into acquiring them unless it's as part of a package. There's just so much variance with those guys that's it's not worth it to teams that are actually trying to compete to give up MLB talent for them. 

I wonder how likely it is that they'd deal Perales considering his roster issues going into '26? 

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

Would you trade Campbell for Bibee?  Would Cleveland?

Yes. No idea about Cleveland. 

[notin]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yes. No idea about Cleveland. 

So?  Are you out of minutes this month?  Call them and find out!  Did you not understand the assignment here?

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

So?  Are you out of minutes this month?  Call them and find out!  Did you not understand the assignment here?

They have both my cell and my work number blocked. 

[harmony]

34 minutes ago, notin said:

Campbell has a surplus value of $46mill on BTV, as mentioned before.

His closest matches among SPs is Tanner Bibee, valued at $47.3mill.

Bibee is having a rough year, and is owed some $45 mill thru 2029 with an option for 2030.  Cleveland heavily backloaded this deal, a common tactic among small market teams, often with the plan to move the player before the yeas get to expensive.  
 

Would you trade Campbell for Bibee?  Would Cleveland?

Cleveland would be reluctant to take on Kristian Campbell's guaranteed salary of nearly $60 million, including $20 million in 2032 (including a $4 million buyout of a 2033 team option).

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/84877/kristian-campbell

Will Campbell still be in baseball in 2032?

The valuations at Baseball Trade Values are volatile and Campbell's valuation may be headed downward given his struggles this year at Triple A.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Hitch said:

Let's reign it in a bit. We don't really know what he's traded for yet - it's way too early. Secondly, most reports coming out at executive level saw the contract as a sunk cost and were surprised the Sox got what they did.

We were never getting a Ryan for Devers. Not a chance.  

Not even if Ryan had just 2 months control.

[notin]

19 minutes ago, harmony said:

Cleveland would be reluctant to take on Kristian Campbell's guaranteed salary of nearly $60 million, including $20 million in 2032 (including a $4 million buyout of a 2033 team option).

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/84877/kristian-campbell

Will Campbell still be in baseball in 2032?

The valuations at Baseball Trade Values are volatile and Campbell's valuation may be headed downward given his struggles this year at Triple A.

His struggles in 83 PA?

 They might not even be real struggles.  If he’s working on pitch recognition and hitting breaking pitches, his instructions could be something like “dont swing at fastballs unless you have two strikes.”    If thats the case, his AAA struggles are not real and the impact on his stats (lower BA/Slg and higher K%,BB% and OBP) would look a lot like his current line in Worcester now.

Not to mention, with only 83 OA, Hes one 4 for 4 day away from adding 80 points to that OPS…

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Romero is a good trade fit for some clubs. He is MIF with a lot of power. He doesn't have a clear path here and is closer to MLB (and Rule 5 issues) than others in the MIF pipeline. 

We're ok with dealing from prospects that are far away, but I think other teams aren't heavy into acquiring them unless it's as part of a package. There's just so much variance with those guys that's it's not worth it to teams that are actually trying to compete to give up MLB talent for them. 

I wonder how likely it is that they'd deal Perales considering his roster issues going into '26? 

Good points.

Maybe some team with less of a 40 man roster crunch going into 2026 might take Perales, but they won't give a lot to get him- maybe a Luis Garcia/Lucas Sims type pitcher.

As for closer to ML ready prospects, it does seem like teams no longer demand far away, high ceiling prospects. Arias, Clarke & Valera might be exceptions, as they may move to AA, soon, but even they may not bring back what we think they are worth.

Our top prospects in AAA & AA are...

Campbell (graduated)

3. Tolle (will be #1 when Anthony & Mayer graduate)

5. Perales (on 60 Day IL)

6. Jh Garcia (We are logjammed in the OF)

7. Tibbs (Checking him out at 1B, I hear)

10. Early, 11. Sandlin, 12. Romero (might be traded in a package)

19. Jordan (Rule 5, but 1B is a weak area.)

28. Ehrhard (OF blocked)

Easy throw-ins:

21. Uberstine, 23. Mullins, 24. Castro, 26. Wehunt, 31. Monegro (injured), 37. Drohan, 40. Alcantara, Rodgers, Dean, Hoppe

40 Man Borderlines (some on IL): I Campbell, Winckowski, Kelly, Guerrero, Burdi, Bernardino, Alcala

Grissom, Sogard, Eaton, Toro

Criswell or Murphy?

Casas?

Hendriks, Hicks & Buehler?

[Duran Is The Man]

4 hours ago, Hitch said:

Let's reign it in a bit. We don't really know what he's traded for yet - it's way too early. Secondly, most reports coming out at executive level saw the contract as a sunk cost and were surprised the Sox got what they did.

We were never getting a Ryan for Devers. Not a chance.  

we just see it differently. i think Devers was worth more in trade and others think he wasn't worth much at all. don't get me wrong, i'm glad he's gone; i just think the return should have been better.

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

we just see it differently. i think Devers was worth more in trade and others think he wasn't worth much at all. don't get me wrong, i'm glad he's gone; i just think the return should have been better.

He's a DH who is owed $250 million and has health and attitude issues.

[Duran Is The Man]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

He's a DH who is owed $250 million and has health and attitude issues.

you're right, he wasn't worth what they got. Brez flat out robbed the Giants.

[harmony]

21 minutes ago, notin said:

His struggles in 83 PA?

 They might not even be real struggles.  If he’s working on pitch recognition and hitting breaking pitches, his instructions could be something like “dont swing at fastballs unless you have two strikes.”    If thats the case, his AAA struggles are not real and the impact on his stats (lower BA/Slg and higher K%,BB% and OBP) would look a lot like his current line in Worcester now.

Not to mention, with only 83 OA, Hes one 4 for 4 day away from adding 80 points to that OPS…

Did the eight-year extension increase or decrease Kristian Campbell's trade value?

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, harmony said:

Did the eight-year extension increase or decrease Kristian Campbell's trade value?

Decrease,

[notin]

10 minutes ago, harmony said:

Did the eight-year extension increase or decrease Kristian Campbell's trade value?

I think it helps a lot.

His $7.5mill AAV is basically utility infielder money.  Years are longer, but his AAV is in the same neighborhood as what Jorge Polanco, Enrique Hernández and Jesse Winker got last year.  If he even lived up to half of his Top Ten hype, he’s a steal.  If not, he’s not immovable. 

Will Cleveland be happier paying Tanner Bibee $18mill in 2028 and $21mill in 2029 if he stays as the middling pitcher he’s been this season?  Or if he misses time due to TJ?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Campbell has a surplus value of $46mill

Keller has a surplus value of no $34.2 mill and Bednar somehow has a surplus value of $6.3mill, which is a lot for a guy who sucks.  But that Pitt package is worth $40.5mill, making Campbell an overpay, but not an egregious  one.  It’s certainly a viable deal, BTV or not, and one I can’t see Pitt rejecting. I wouldn’t make it myself as I still have faith in Campbell. 

Pitt could even put the deal by sending back Nick Yorke!

Bednar has an OPS Against or .621, this year. (It was over .900 in April, so he's been real good since then.) That's with a .342 BAbip, too!

Keller will be overpaid, but he's still just 29.

I'd probably give KC and Kelly for Keller & Bednar, but I think we could get both for Arias, Clarke, Early & Bleis.

(Imagine if anyone had said this in mid April.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

15 minutes ago, harmony said:

Did the eight-year extension increase or decrease Kristian Campbell's trade value?

Increase in April, decrease in May... ugh.

This is just like why last winter I told Moon that nobody would want to trade for Rafaela, because he was no longer making MLB minimum wage after signing a $50 million extension. 

Boy, that dynamic has shifted....

Bet someone would gamble on Campbell. Mike Kingery and Rusney Castillo didn't win awards for Minor League Player of the Year.

[moonslav59]

Would Mitch Keller be like bringing back Pivetta?

[Bellhorn04]

53 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

you're right, he wasn't worth what they got. Brez flat out robbed the Giants.

Jeez man, you really don't think the Giants are swallowing a lot there?  I sure do.  But we all see this stuff differently.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

They have both my cell and my work number blocked. 

That tracks…

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Jeez man, you really don't think the Giants are swallowing a lot there?  I sure do.  But we all see this stuff differently.

I actually didn’t like it much for Boston from a talent perspective, but the deal made sense all around…

[notin]

39 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Increase in April, decrease in May... ugh.

This is just like why last winter I told Moon that nobody would want to trade for Rafaela, because he was no longer making MLB minimum wage after signing a $50 million extension. 

Boy, that dynamic has shifted....

Bet someone would gamble on Campbell. Mike Kingery and Rusney Castillo didn't win awards for Minor League Player of the Year.

Scott Kingery?

there was a Mike Kingery, but he was a nondescript outfielder for Seattle in the 1980s.  Scott signed the big MLB deal out of college before playing a single professional game..

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

That tracks…

They eventually changed their name and logo, so I won in the end. I just don't know why they couldn't put me through to Roger Dorn. 

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

we just see it differently. i think Devers was worth more in trade and others think he wasn't worth much at all. don't get me wrong, i'm glad he's gone; i just think the return should have been better.

Yeah but on the other side of the argument to you are the Executives - the people Breslow has to convince. 

It's fine wishing we got more/different, but I think throwing around names like Ryan just isn't realistic. If Breslow had been able to get him he'd have done it and started picking his suit for the Executive of the Year dinner that afternoon.

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Did the eight-year extension increase or decrease Kristian Campbell's trade value?

I honestly can't call it. And the opposing views on this very page make me comfortable in that. 

Juts no idea.

[Bellhorn04]

47 minutes ago, notin said:

I actually didn’t like it much for Boston from a tangent perspective, but the deal made sense all around…

Nobody liked it from a tangent perspective. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Did the eight-year extension increase or decrease Kristian Campbell's trade value?

Now that's one that BTV can handle.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Bednar has an OPS Against or .621, this year. (It was over .900 in April, so he's been real good since then.) That's with a .342 BAbip, too!

Keller will be overpaid, but he's still just 29.

I'd probably give KC and Kelly for Keller & Bednar, but I think we could get both for Arias, Clarke, Early & Bleis.

(Imagine if anyone had said this in mid April.)

On the year Bednar has like a flat 2 ERA and like a 12.5 K/9, 13 saves so insurance if Chapman gets hurt. Great set up man. Prob close for us next year (his arb3 year)

Keller is like a 3.7-3.8 ERA pitcher, so like a good #3 thereabouts. Will slot in nicely in the middle of our rotation next 3 years.  I dont think hes overpaid at all, like 18m/cash per year but with like 15.5 lux tax hit.  Getting a 29 yr old solid #3 in free agency, you are looking at like 21m for 4-5 years. He provides good insurance if Gio or Bello struggle and can join our playoff rotation.  ALso will help us get there (playoffs).