Article: Red Sox Rumors: Duran-Padres Link Grows Stronger, Bregman Trade Rumor Shot Down

[notin]

18 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

Which if you think about it is a completely true statement on his part.

Especially if he thinks errors are meant to validate defense.  They’re not.  Their purpose is to explain baserunners who got on base (or took an extra base) on a batted ball due to poor defensive play.  That’s why no error is awarded if a flyball is dropped but a runner is forced out a second.  Or on a flubbed double play grounder that only gets one runner.  Using errors to evaluate defense is like using wild pitches to determine pitcher control…

[sk7326]

7 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

This post is nothing but a load of insults.  

It's also incorrect.  The premise that teams are backing away from data is completely wrong.  Hell, the team this forum was built to argue about just had a big purge of its scouting department!  The Astros killed their pro scouting staff.  Other teams are doing that and leaning more into StatCast.  Other teams that use lots of scouting aren't skimping on the data necessarily - heck the Rays of all teams have been on the forefront of big spending on scouts as well as the analytics.

Now he is right that "how do you turn data into performance" is the most important thing - but yes, teams are showing players what their launch angle is and measuring their adjustments accordingly.  It'd be stupid not to.  Also, the assertion that teams use data for things other than something like WAR is kind of a tautology.  He seems particularly mad at WAR, though not even the companies that calculate it would tell you that it is like 0.1th of a win accurate or anything when assessing player value.  

That said, he has also explicitly blamed DEI for Alex Cora being the Red Sox manager - so I kind of know how much faith to put into his analysis.

[notin]

On 7/13/2025 at 11:53 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

Sure, it's a recorded fact that the official scorer called it an error. But that call is what you are referring to as a guess.  By the same token there are recorded facts that metrics people determined it was a routine play, difficult play or whatever.

There is absolutely no difference between the two types of determinations.

The only difference is errors appear in a box score; defensive runs saved do not…

[dgalehouse]

Every entity has it's own culture. TalkSox is no exception. A fairly small group of posters comprise the majority of the content. These posters will argue a bit with each other, but they are actually pretty like- minded. Cut from the same cloth, if you will. They would tend to agree on most issues, whether baseball or anything else.  And they definitely are pro analytics and metrics in baseball, much more so than the average baseball fan would be. So, when someone comes on with an opposing opinion, they will kind of team up and go after the would be maverick. The condescending attitude appears.    A different school of thought is not very welcome.  I'm not complaining about it. It's just my observation and my opinion. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, dgalehouse said:

Every entity has it's own culture. TalkSox is no exception. A fairly small group of posters comprise the majority of the content. These posters will argue a bit with each other, but they are actually pretty like- minded. Cut from the same cloth, if you will. They would tend to agree on most issues, whether baseball or anything else.  And they definitely are pro analytics and metrics in baseball, much more so than the average baseball fan would be. So, when someone comes on with an opposing opinion, they will kind of team up and go after the would be maverick. The condescending attitude appears.    A different school of thought is not very welcome.  I'm not complaining about it. It's just my observation and my opinion. 

In this case there's a wild amount of condescension coming from the other side.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

In this case there's a wild amount of condescension coming from the other side.

And condensation is the part of the water cycle that forms clouds. I know I'm off a few letters, but most of the arguments here get cloudy eventually...

[Hitch]

8 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

This post is nothing but a load of insults.  

I honestly have no idea why any of you waste time interacting with him. He's either a (successful) troll, or a condescending fool for whom it is impossible to see oneself as wrong about anything. 

Either way, he's a waste of time. 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

10 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

This post is nothing but a load of insults.  

I know but I have forgiven you.  Please stop harassing me and things should work out great.  Too many good guys on the site to give it up because I am being harassed by a moderator.  I will ask nicely once again for you to simply lay off the insults and if you want to push your beliefs on people please do it elsewhere.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

2 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

Every entity has it's own culture. TalkSox is no exception. A fairly small group of posters comprise the majority of the content. These posters will argue a bit with each other, but they are actually pretty like- minded. Cut from the same cloth, if you will. They would tend to agree on most issues, whether baseball or anything else.  And they definitely are pro analytics and metrics in baseball, much more so than the average baseball fan would be. So, when someone comes on with an opposing opinion, they will kind of team up and go after the would be maverick. The condescending attitude appears.    A different school of thought is not very welcome.  I'm not complaining about it. It's just my observation and my opinion. 

Well said.  If people don't agree with an opinion, they should be mature enough to either not respond or do it politely.  That's not been my experience so I gravitate to the more mature participants that can discuss things as adults and let the insulting, immature group go off by themselves and discuss the topics that have absolutely no merit to me.  Thanks for your comment.

[jad]

10 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Thanks for dropping by to let us know that you're above it all. 😇

Ha ha!  Actually, I wouldn't give myself that credit, since I haven't even gotten to the level where I understand what anyone is arguing for.

[Soxlover]

I estimate he doesn’t know what estimate means.

 

[Soxlover]

On 7/14/2025 at 11:00 AM, mvp 78 said:

A lot of metrics and advanced stats are facts. It seems like you just don't like them. 😎

And things like OBP and even out dated RF/9 are solid facts.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

10 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Thanks for dropping by to let us know that you're above it all. 😇

So Jad gives you an opinion you don't like so you insult him?  Thanks for proving my point.  Why not just let Jad have his opinion without the dig?  You are a moderator.  That should not be a synonym for chief insulter.

Chill and let people say what they think without brow beating them.

Jad, I agree with you.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

In this case there's a wild amount of condescension coming from the other side.

Not true.  It's just an exceptionally large gap in maturity.  Your insults are non-stop.  And then you play the condescension card simply because I know light years more about baseball than you.  That's what happens when you have 30 to 50 more years in the game than the other person.  It's called experience not condescension.

This will all stop when you stop the cheat shots.  It's really that simple because I don't care about your opinions on topics you don't grasp but think you do because inexperience provides that misconception of your knowledge.   In 30 years, all this will make sense to you but right now you are simply a part of an entitled generation that believes they know more despite the huge difference in experience. 

The concept of respect related to experience is non-existent in your generation which is why I simply want to discuss baseball with people have a similar level of experience and you should do the same.  I just ask that you stop brow beating me to conform to your inexperienced beliefs.  Freedom of thought is an important concept in this country.  Please extend me that courtesy as one of the commandants of this website  

[moonslav59]

On 7/13/2025 at 9:57 AM, Sawxfan said:

Using errors and fielding % as a metric to judge defensive value in 2025 is laughable! Outs Above Average, Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating, etc. are far better metrics to use when assessing the defensive value of a player. Rafaela is by far the best defensive CF on the Red Sox, and arguably the best defensive CF in MLB! 

Yes, indeed. Rafaela in CF is a no brainer, The data shows he is farsuperior.

Abreu is a fantastic defender in an extremely difficult Fenway RF. He barely gets a chance to hit lefties, unless as RP'ers. He still needs to prove he can hit them to become a FT'er, but it's not like Duran has done well vs lefties in a far larger sample size. He's looked better than Abreu v L, but got worse, this year as Abreu seems to be improving. Since we have Ref, Abreu's weak area is covered, and it's not like we'd cut or bench Ref, if Anthony caused Abreu to be traded away.

To me, vs RHPs:

Abreu is our best OF'er (O+D) Duran is second and Rafaela looks 3rd, right now, but Anthony needs to be playing FT. I have no idea who to sit to get Anthony playing v R, but it's not Abreu.

vs LHPs, assuming Ref DHs vs lefties...

Rafaela is probably our best, followed by Anthony, then Duran slightly over the better defender in Abreu.

When you consider we face RHPs about 70%, this looks like a very close call, all around, with Anthony's ceiling carrying a lot of weight.

Tough call, but someone needs to go, if Yoshida-Ref DH.

[Larry Cook]

A writer suggested we trade Duran to San Diego for salas and moonhorn! 
then we flip those two to the twins plus Fitts and arias for Ryan!!!

 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

A writer suggested we trade Duran to San Diego for salas and moonhorn! 
then we flip those two to the twins plus Fitts and arias for Ryan!!!

I'd do it and feel way better, if Brex extends Ryan.

[moonslav59]

To PHI: Duran, Mullins & Bernardino

To BOS: Ryan & Strahm

To MIN: Fitts, Abel, Romero & Sandlin (or maybe Abel, Clarke & Arias)

[Larry Cook]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

To PHI: Duran, Mullins & Bernardino

To BOS: Ryan & Strahm

To MIN: Fitts, Abel, Romero & Sandlin (or maybe Abel, Clarke & Arias)

I think everybody is happy with this trade if the twins think highly of Abel!!!

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I think everybody is happy with this trade if the twins think highly of Abel!!!

I'm really falling for Ryan. Probably, too much.

My offers may be too much, but as long as we keep Anthony, Mayer, Tolle, Campbell and hopefully Gracia & Arias, I think I may be in. I'd hate to lose Arias & Garcia and even Clarke or Valera, but one might have to go, along with Duran (or Abreu.)

 

 

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure I'd do this, but would you?

Anthony, Campbell, Sandlin, Paez & Mullins

for

Skenes & Bednar

(Would you sub Clarke, Valera or Perales for Paez or Mullins?)

[moonslav59]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Anthony, Campbell, Sandlin, Paez & Mullins

for

Skenes & Bednar

(Would you sub Clarke, Valera or Perales for Paez or Mullins?)

Yipee! We get to keep Duran & Abreu!

[Duran Is The Man]

32 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm really falling for Ryan. Probably, too much.

My offers may be too much, but as long as we keep Anthony, Mayer, Tolle, Campbell and hopefully Gracia & Arias, I think I may be in. I'd hate to lose Arias & Garcia and even Clarke or Valera, but one might have to go, along with Duran (or Abreu.)

 

 

too bad Brez didn't trade Devers for Ryan, instead of a grab bag of prospects and a salary dump.

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

too bad Brez didn't trade Devers for Ryan, instead of a grab bag of prospects and a salary dump.

MIN could not afford Devers.

[Hitch]

5 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

too bad Brez didn't trade Devers for Ryan, instead of a grab bag of prospects and a salary dump.

It's not like in video games where you just pick the player you want and get him. Devers wasn't a fit for the Twins in any way. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Anthony, Campbell, Sandlin, Paez & Mullins

for

Skenes & Bednar

(Would you sub Clarke, Valera or Perales for Paez or Mullins?)

I wouldn't trade Anthony for Skenes straight up.

Teams simply cannot afford to swap a top-rated position player who can impact every game for at least the next six years for a guy who might play once a week during that time -- if that pitcher doesn't suffer one season-ending elbow surgery or several shorter IL stints that are now typical of virtually every modern arm.

Anthony may be the Red Sox best offensive player by the end of this season, and for years to come. His plate discipline and hard hit rate are already a combination that promises stardom... 

Mayer looks like a future Gold Glover somewhere with decent pop; The Password could supply power but have holes in his swing; Campbell may figure it out in the box, but never find a position on the field -- but of all them, Roman looks like the real deal... in every sample size he's had as a pro so far.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I wouldn't trade Anthony for Skenes straight up.

Teams simply cannot afford to swap a top-rated position player who can impact every game for at least the next six years for a guy who might play once a week during that time -- if that pitcher doesn't suffer one season-ending elbow surgery or several shorter IL stints that are now typical of virtually every modern arm.

Anthony may be the Red Sox best offensive player by the end of this season, and for years to come. His plate discipline and hard hit rate are already a combination that promises stardom... 

Mayer looks like a future Gold Glover somewhere with decent pop; The Password could supply power but have holes in his swing; Campbell may figure it out in the box, but never find a position on the field -- but of all them, Roman looks like the real deal... in every size sample he's had as a pro so far.

I agree.  You don't trade guys like Anthony or Mayer.

(Ducks the incoming "I'd trade anybody in the right deal" posts.)

[Hitch]

I'd trade Mayer for Skenes. In a heartbeat. 

Anthony, no chance. 

[notin]

17 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

In this case there's a wild amount of condescension coming from the other side.

It seems to me like if the pro-metric folks promote their viewpoint, thats condescension.  If the pro-baseball card stat side promotes their viewpoint, that’s just defending their opinion.

I’m not complaining.  Just an observation…

[notin]

7 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I'd trade Mayer for Skenes. In a heartbeat. 

Anthony, no chance. 

It will take a lot more than Mayer.

Would you trade Mayer, Campbell and Tolle?