The .500 Boston Red Sox

[Jasonbay44]

2 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Sox payroll is currently $192M, ranked 13th in MLB.  It was the highest in MLB during DD's time in Boston.

Of that $192M, $73M is on the IL, plus other payees are also not on the active roster.  The active roster payroll is $105M, 19th in MLB.  

You could be right about Devers and 40-40, but that's only because the pitching stinks.  When it's good, the Sox can be very good.   

Who do you plan on selling?  Bello?  Bregman?  Crochet?  Anthony?  Mayer?  Campbell?  Narvaez?  Rafaela?  Abreu?  

Selling young guys on cheap deals makes no sense. The guys who would be sold would be guys like Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson who are older and on 1 year deals. 
 

possibly Bregman if they don’t think an extension is realistic. All the other guys huh me ruined are rookies, or on long term deals. 

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

Essentially, the Sox are still trying to get back to where they were before the asinine decision to fire Dombrowski. But giving up on the season at this point is not something any fan should do. All of the opposing teams have big problems themselves. There is always a chance. 

The reason to give up on the season would primarily be that we are under .500 and sinking past the halfway point. Not the talent level.  Its more about the whole we've dug into.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, notin said:

You’ve combined Hicks and Harrison into one pitcher.

Harrison is in Worcester, true.  But he doesn’t make $12.5mill; he makes the league minimum.  
 

Hicks does make $12.5mill, but he’s on the Injured List with some sort of toe injury…

Fact remains: we were at a turning point/crucial point in the season when Devers was traded for nothing that has helped the MLB club, and its looking like another disappointing year.

2 disappointments for 2 years in Brez.

Such a waste of the year that Crochet gave you. Yankees Crochet (Cole) hasnt pitched an inning this year. If your ace makes every start in 2025, you just cannot waste that.

[dgalehouse]

It's not that deep of a hole. One game under .500.  Six behind the Yankees. Two games out of a wide open wild card race. 81 games still to play. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, dgalehouse said:

It's not that deep of a hole. One game under .500.  Six behind the Yankees. Two games out of a wide open wild card race. 81 games still to play. 

Are there many teams under .500 at the halfway point that have won a WS? Any? 

Even the '06 83-78 Cardinals that some posters trot out were 44-37 and leading their division at this point. 

[moonslav59]

Did someone say "obsessive?"

I resemble that remark.

There is no way I ever stop being a Sox fan, until I kick the can. If I could make it through 3+ decades of futility and bonehead management combined with stingy owners, I can make it through whatever lies ahead.

No doubt, the tease we got from 2004 to 2018, spoiled us, and this is now year 7 of "wait till next year" hitting us in June, July and sometimes August (except for 2021.) This is not fun, at all. It seems like less fun than those other decades of futility, but to me, there is one saving grace: our farm, group of young & controlled players and the hint that JH may be back to spending more than the last 5-6 years. The fact is, even after trading Devers, we are still at or over the tax line, depending on what site you look at.

I'm still optimistic about our future- just not really the immediate one (2025.) If I knew JH would allow us to go "all in" this winter, I'd be more than fine with a fire sale of all FAs-to-be plus maybe one or two of the 2 year guys, left- like Duran. Since I don't trust that to happen, I'm having mixed feelings about being buyers, sellers or both. Even standing pat makes some sense, if it looks like returning players are playing well.

"It's a mixed up, muddled up, shook up world..."

[Duran Is The Man]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The reason the Sox didn't get a massive haul is because the massive amount of dollars attached to the contract. 

so you're saying that the Padres wouldn't have given up as much to the Nationals had Soto already been signed to ...oh, i dunno...a 10 year, $313M contract????

[Duran Is The Man]

3 hours ago, notin said:

You’ve combined Hicks and Harrison into one pitcher.

Harrison is in Worcester, true.  But he doesn’t make $12.5mill; he makes the league minimum.  
 

Hicks does make $12.5mill, but he’s on the Injured List with some sort of toe injury…

making him the perfect Red Sox trade/FA candidate. LOL.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Are there many teams under .500 at the halfway point that have won a WS? Any? 

Even the '06 83-78 Cardinals that some posters trot out were 44-37 and leading their division at this point. 

The 2005 Astros were 37-44 after 81 games en route to losing the 2005 WS to the White Sox.

The 2019 Nationals were 41-40 after 81 games...

[notin]

35 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

making him the perfect Red Sox trade/FA candidate. LOL.

I listed him among them.  I think Duran, Chapman, Wilson and, if healthy, Hicks…

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

so you're saying that the Padres wouldn't have given up as much to the Nationals had Soto already been signed to ...oh, i dunno...a 10 year, $313M contract????

If Juan Soto was signed to a 10 year, 500M contract at the time. I think that'd be a fairer comp. 

[Kimmi]

On 6/24/2025 at 5:22 PM, drewski6 said:

I agree 100%. After the Bregman signing I found myself quite optimistic, and was up until the devers trade.  Not trying to harp on that or bring it back up, but it was a turning point for me. I became much less optimistic that theyll figure it out this year (or next)

Yes, I think that trading Devers was the turning point for the majority of fans.  It's hard to be optimistic after our recent stretch of play.  With the beginning of each new game, I remain hopeful, until we lose.  LOL

[Kimmi]

On 6/24/2025 at 5:30 PM, moonslav59 said:

I still think this team is better than .500, and the run differential hints at that being true.

With so many teams that were better than us in 2024, doing nothing or even getting worse over the winter, I expected better than 40 and 40.

I'm still optimistic, but we've seen too many recent Sox teams get worse in AUG & SEPT, so I have my doubts about 2025.

I'm with you.  I still have a hard time believing this team has played as poorly, or inconsistently, as it has.  Maybe this is the year that we hit our stride after the All-Star break instead of getting worse.  One can hope, anyway.

We now have 4 teams we have to pass in order to get into the wildcard, but the good news is that we have a better run differential than 3 of those teams.  Maybe our luck will even out.

[dgalehouse]

Baseball is a funny game. Many of the results are not decisive. The Sox have lost a lot of close ones. Often it comes down to making one big play or getting one big hit with runners on. More often than not, the Sox have not come up big in key situations. But it does show that it doesn't take all that much to turn things around. 

[Kimmi]

On 6/24/2025 at 8:25 PM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

That's where the disappointments of this decade have carried over. Everyone acknowledged the acquisitions that would lead to improvement -- and most of them have played like All-Stars: Chapman, Crochet and Bregman.

Unfortunately, the Big Three rookies have been less Lynn and Rice, and more snips and snails and puppy dog tails. Somehow, Boston leads the league in errors again without Raffy playing a single inning in the field.

There's still time, obviously. But before the season, if fans were told the Sox would be 40-40 at the end of June after just losing Devers forever, the outlook would have to be more on the gloomy side.

As I just posted, I can't believe this team is playing as poorly as we've played.  There have been so many disappointments and a lot of frustration.  I am trying to find ways to stay optimistic, but it does get harder with each series that we lose.

[Kimmi]

On 6/25/2025 at 3:52 PM, dgalehouse said:

It's not that deep of a hole. One game under .500.  Six behind the Yankees. Two games out of a wide open wild card race. 81 games still to play. 

It's not over by a long shot.  A lot can and does happen in a matter of a couple of weeks.

We've witnessed that in both directions just recently with a pretty good run followed up by a pretty bad run.

Keep the faith.

[dgalehouse]

A number of games coming up with some of the weaker N.L. teams.  For the Sox chances, this could be a case of now or never.

[Kimmi]

On 6/25/2025 at 3:57 PM, mvp 78 said:

Are there many teams under .500 at the halfway point that have won a WS? Any? 

Even the '06 83-78 Cardinals that some posters trot out were 44-37 and leading their division at this point. 

Were there any teams that came back from an 0-3 deficit in the ALCS to win a WS before the Red Sox did it?

The defense rests.

[moonslav59]

2025 Run Differential

112 NYY

99 DET

69 TBR

46 HOU

17 BOS & SEA

12 TEX

-3 TOR

-14 MIN

-37 KCR

-49 LAA

 

 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

14 hours ago, Kimmi said:

Were there any teams that came back from an 0-3 deficit in the ALCS to win a WS before the Red Sox did it?

The defense rests.

I play the lottery but I don't count on it as a retirement plan.

The defense, like the sox', is weak.

[Kimmi]

7 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

I play the lottery but I don't count on it as a retirement plan.

The defense, like the sox', is weak.

One of the many beautiful things about this game of baseball that we love is that it is so random and so unpredictable.  Anything can happen.

Don't rain on my parade.

 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

43 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

One of the many beautiful things about this game of baseball that we love is that it is so random and so unpredictable.  Anything can happen.

Don't rain on my parade.

 

I'm just being realistic.

[Bellhorn04]

16 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

I'm just being realistic.

Your realism comes with a side order of Yankee fan bias.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Your realism comes with a side order of Yankee fan bias.

Hardly.

Relying on things that rarely ever happen is not a realistic approach.

Pretty simple.

[Bellhorn04]

23 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Hardly.

Relying on things that rarely ever happen is not a realistic approach.

Pretty simple.

The 2025 Red Sox probably have a 20-30% chance of making the playoffs as of today, depending on which projection system you look at.  That's not really winning the lottery stuff.  

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The 2025 Red Sox probably have a 20-30% chance of making the playoffs as of today, depending on which projection system you look at.  That's not really winning the lottery stuff.  

fangraphs has them at 18.5%, 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

fangraphs has them at 18.5%, 

B-R has 30.2%.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

B-R has 30.2%.

They need their heads examined.

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

They need their heads examined.

None of those %s mean much.

The Sox are 2.5 games out a Wild Card spot with 76 games left.  That's far from out of it.  If you want to say it's a 20% chance, that's reasonable.

It's not winning the lottery odds, more like winning money at the casino odds.

 

 

[vegasbob]

On 6/25/2025 at 10:42 AM, mvp 78 said:

 

Maybe we can make a deal for Loperfido ?