The 1B Predicament

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

23 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Kristian Campbell's defensive WAR at 2b is -0.6, so why not move him to an easier infield position? 

Umm, he's slashing .207/.292/.319 in his last 30 games.

The question with campbell is not whether he needs to be moved to 1B, but whether he needs to be sent back down.

[notin]

25 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Casas was having a terrible season, WAR -0.8.  His injury was tantamound to a godsend.  Gonzalez's OPS is 200 points higher than Casas' .580 this season and he is due back this weekend.  

Right now I'm convinced the best option for Raffy is to leave him at DH if for no other reason than that he is paid to hit and does so.  Meanwhile, there is no need to acquire a first baseman.  

For example,  if you don't like Gonzalez, Kristian Campbell's defensive WAR at 2b is -0.6, so why not move him to an easier infield position?  This would allow Breslow to bring up Mayer to play SS or 2B.  

The bigger picture right now is that pitching is the team weakness and debating who plays 1b is just silly.  In the American League just 2 teams, NYY and Clevland, have scored more runs than the Sox.  Also in the AL, however, only 3 teams have given up more runs than the Sox.  

Romy Gonzalez is ok for a stopgap or platoon option, but he didn’t get released by the worst team in MLB history for being overly talented.  At some point, the Sox should address 1b if Devers never relents (which he might).

But the more pressing area needs are the bullpen and someone to replace Houck in the rotation.  Hopefully the latter need will be filled by someone returning from the IL at some point.
 

And maybe the former one as well..

[notin]

3 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Umm, he's slashing .207/.292/.319 in his last 30 games.

The question with campbell is not whether he needs to be moved to 1B, but whether he needs to be sent back down.

Keep him up. Spell him occasionally with Hamilton. Whats he going to learn in AAA, besides that he can crush the pitching there?

[Thomas Healy]

2 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

More than anyone, John Henry is responsible for the current state of the Red Sox. Sometime in 2019 he decided that he was spending too much of his money on the team and he wanted to change direction and go with something more " sustainable ".  Firing Dombrowski and bringing in  Bloom will have a special place in the annals of dumb moves. It has resulted in several mediocre  seasons and a largely disgruntled fan base.  This off season , he evidently realized that and at least somewhat changed course again. I see this team as finally getting back on track to the good times. And I have faith that Craig Breslow knows what it takes and has the ability to succeed, the shaky start to this season notwithstanding.

Anyone else not have faith in Craig, Maybe faith isn't the right word, but there's something off about him. As a former player, I think he should be doing a better job at communication with the players. Obviously the Devers situation(s) is where he has lost some of his reputation. The Netflix doc gave me this contorted view of Bres. I feel like he is too PR trained at times so he comes off as just another front office schmuk. He knows the game well and is a very intelligent guy, but idk something seems off. Anyone have this thought or am I just going crazy?

[dgalehouse]

What are the calculations that derive a  defensive WAR of -0.6 for Campbell? I had him figured for no worse than -0.4.  Guess I missed a couple of plays. 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Keep him up. Spell him occasionally with Hamilton. Whats he going to learn in AAA, besides that he can crush the pitching there?

what is he doing for the team here besides being a black hole in the lineup?

[Bellhorn04]

52 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Casas was having a terrible season, WAR -0.8.  His injury was tantamound to a godsend.  Gonzalez's OPS is 200 points higher than Casas' .580 this season and he is due back this weekend.  

Right now I'm convinced the best option for Raffy is to leave him at DH if for no other reason than that he is paid to hit and does so.  Meanwhile, there is no need to acquire a first baseman.  

For example,  if you don't like Gonzalez, Kristian Campbell's defensive WAR at 2b is -0.6, so why not move him to an easier infield position?  This would allow Breslow to bring up Mayer to play SS or 2B.  

The bigger picture right now is that pitching is the team weakness and debating who plays 1b is just silly.  In the American League just 2 teams, NYY and Clevland, have scored more runs than the Sox.  Also in the AL, however, only 3 teams have given up more runs than the Sox.  

Shout out for the use of 'tantamount'. 🙂

[illinoisredsox]

28 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Umm, he's slashing .207/.292/.319 in his last 30 games.

The question with campbell is not whether he needs to be moved to 1B, but whether he needs to be sent back down.

Pitchers have adjusted to him; he now has to adjust to what they’re doing.  That’s not going to happen in AAA.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

2 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

Pitchers have adjusted to him; he now has to adjust to what they’re doing.  That’s not going to happen in AAA.

That remains to be seen. He looks overmatched.

[Old Red]

21 minutes ago, Thomas Healy said:

Anyone else not have faith in Craig, Maybe faith isn't the right word, but there's something off about him. As a former player, I think he should be doing a better job at communication with the players. Obviously the Devers situation(s) is where he has lost some of his reputation. The Netflix doc gave me this contorted view of Bres. I feel like he is too PR trained at times so he comes off as just another front office schmuk. He knows the game well and is a very intelligent guy, but idk something seems off. Anyone have this thought or am I just going crazy?

Remember that Brez was only the 12th pick in the 2024 HOBO draft, because so many potential candidates turned down an interview for the job to begin with, and that was after Sam said that Boston would be where everyone would want to go to.

[illinoisredsox]

17 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

That remains to be seen. He looks overmatched.

For one thing, he should be batting much lower in the lineup; he certainly should not be hitting cleanup.

Maybe you should go back a couple decades and take a look at how Pedroia started out his first 50-55 career games over the last month of 2006 and the first month of 2007.  That .190 batting average just screamed future Rookie of the Year, MVP and All-Star, didn’t it?

I’m not saying Campbell become a Pedroia type player.  I am saying you can’t tell jack from a player’s first couple months, and any fan who thinks they can has an extremely overrated view of themselves.

[Hugh2]

Campbell is obviously struggling, he’s young, and the Sox are going to commit to him working through it.  The extension speaks for itself.

 

They’re not going to ask him in his rookie season, in the midst of his first adjustment to also slide over and play a position he’s never played before.  
 

the Sox have been relatively open and transparent with their plan for their young talent.  It’s not going to be ,Campbell at 1st.  

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

32 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

For one thing, he should be batting much lower in the lineup; he certainly should not be hitting cleanup.

Maybe you should go back a couple decades and take a look at how Pedroia started out his first 50-55 career games over the last month of 2006 and the first month of 2007.  That .190 batting average just screamed future Rookie of the Year, MVP and All-Star, didn’t it?

I’m not saying Campbell become a Pedroia type player.  I am saying you can’t tell jack from a player’s first couple months, and any fan who thinks they can has an extremely overrated view of themselves.

What the midget did a couple of decades ago has nothing to do with campbell.

[illinoisredsox]

1 hour ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

What the midget did a couple of decades ago has nothing to do with campbell.

You are a Tellarite; you do not argue for reasons, you simply argue.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Casas was having a terrible season, WAR -0.8.  His injury was tantamound to a godsend. 

I don't see it that way. I still think Casas will end up being a very good MLB hitter- maybe as a DH and maybe somewhere else.

[notin]

3 hours ago, Thomas Healy said:

Anyone else not have faith in Craig, Maybe faith isn't the right word, but there's something off about him. As a former player, I think he should be doing a better job at communication with the players. Obviously the Devers situation(s) is where he has lost some of his reputation. The Netflix doc gave me this contorted view of Bres. I feel like he is too PR trained at times so he comes off as just another front office schmuk. He knows the game well and is a very intelligent guy, but idk something seems off. Anyone have this thought or am I just going crazy?

 Can’t it be both?

[notin]

3 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

what is he doing for the team here besides being a black hole in the lineup?

Campbell just needs to learn to adjust to MLB pitching.   There’s only one place he can do that.  He’s not going to do that in AAA any more than he is at Dave and Buster’s…

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

11 hours ago, illinoisredsox said:

You are a Tellarite; you do not argue for reasons, you simply argue.

BS, I made a true statement.

What one player did a couple of decades ago has nothing to do with any other player, pretty simple.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

14 hours ago, notin said:

Keep him up. Spell him occasionally with Hamilton. Whats he going to learn in AAA, besides that he can crush the pitching there?

Sometimes players need to be sent down to find their stroke and their confidence.

Happens all the time.

[harmony]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't see it that way. I still think Casas will end up being a very good MLB hitter- maybe as a DH and maybe somewhere else.

Triston Casas almost certainly will be tendered a contract for 2026 but the contract negotiations for his first arbitration season could be interesting. Given the wide range of his perceived value, and his idiosyncratic persona, the arbitration process may well go to a contested hearing.

Or not. 

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, notin said:

Campbell just needs to learn to adjust to MLB pitching.   There’s only one place he can do that.  He’s not going to do that in AAA any more than he is at Dave and Buster’s…

Anthony and Mayer will have to do the same at some point. I think pushing Campbell to 4th was dumb, especially when his numbers were slipping at that point. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Triston Casas almost certainly will be tendered a contract for 2026 but the contract negotiations for his first arbitration season could be interesting. Given the wide range of his perceived value, and his idiosyncratic persona, the arbitration process may well go to a contested hearing.

Or not. 

My guess is we trade him, but waiting for him to be healthy may (or may not) increase his value.

I'm not sure what sort of roster crush we might be under, this winter or by opening day, but we have quite a few deals expiring, this winter.

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Anthony and Mayer will have to do the same at some point. I think pushing Campbell to 4th was dumb, especially when his numbers were slipping at that point. 

Agreed, but everyone is sucking in that slot.

I get the idea that the number 2 slot is where your best batter should be slotted, but maybe that is Bregman, and we could slot Devers 4th, where power is needed most.

1. L Duran

2. R Bregman

3. L Abreu/ R Refsnyder

4. L Devers

5. R Campbell (1B)

6. L Mayer

7. R Story

8. R Narvaez

9. R Rafaela (or call up Anthony and bat him 6th,)

Ideally, if Campbell starts hitting again, he could bat 2nd .

 

[Old Red]

49 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Anthony and Mayer will have to do the same at some point. I think pushing Campbell to 4th was dumb, especially when his numbers were slipping at that point. 

I think Cora was just throwing things against the wall, and wanted to see if Campbell could stick after watching Casas, Story, and Abreu not being able to batting 4th.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, but everyone is sucking in that slot.

I get the idea that the number 2 slot is where your best batter should be slotted, but maybe that is Bregman, and we could slot Devers 4th, where power is needed most.

1. L Duran

2. R Bregman

3. L Abreu/ R Refsnyder

4. L Devers

5. R Campbell (1B)

6. L Mayer

7. R Story

8. R Narvaez

9. R Rafaela (or call up Anthony and bat him 6th,)

Ideally, if Campbell starts hitting again, he could bat 2nd .

 

What's to say that devers won't refuse to bat 4th?

[Old Red]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

My guess is we trade him, but waiting for him to be healthy may (or may not) increase his value.

I'm not sure what sort of roster crush we might be under, this winter or by opening day, but we have quite a few deals expiring, this winter.

At the moment Casas has little to no trade value, and at the moment the Red Sox has NO long term solution at 1B, so there are more than one scenario out there on what happens with Casas.

[mvp 78]

Cora to try a new lineup tonight:

1 Duran

2 Devers

3 Bregman

5 Abreu

6 Campbell

7 Story

8 Sogard

9 Narvaez

10 Rafaela

Should get them out of their 4 hole slump.

[harmony]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

My guess is we trade him, but waiting for him to be healthy may (or may not) increase his value.

I'm not sure what sort of roster crush we might be under, this winter or by opening day, but we have quite a few deals expiring, this winter.

A potential trade partner might be wary of the arbitration process with Triston Casas.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

What's to say that devers won't refuse to bat 4th?

So negative.

He's batted 4th a lot, over the years, including nearly 3 X the amount as the second slot in 2024.

 

[mvp 78]

28 minutes ago, harmony said:

A potential trade partner might be wary of the arbitration process with Triston Casas.

Why? How is it different than any other player? 

Casas has a number. The team has a number. A third party determines which number they like better. Where's the rub?