A disclaimer before I start, Duran has a history of starting off slow. So, what we're seeing now from him isn't an anomaly by any means. In April and May last season, he slashed 262/324/448/772. These numbers are respectable at best and don't reflect Duran's true offensive value. It wasn't until June last year when Duran started to turn things around offensively, accumulating a 1.064 OPS with 7 HRs. Therefore, it's not a stretch to say Jarren will heat up in the summer months as he typically does. Still, Jarren's numbers are down quite noticeably this season even with the small sample size. Let's break it down:
Jarren has struggled mightily vs lefties; He is whiffing 32% of the time while mustering a distasteful .263 OBP against southpaws; he has always struggled against with the lefty/lefty matchup, but for some reason this year he hasn't been picking them up as easy
It's not a contact issue, as his Barrel% vs LHP is actually better than it is vs RHP (7.7% vs 5.9%) as well as most other contact/outcome stats
Rather, it is a plate discipline issue. Duran is walking only 3.5% vs LHP and 5.2% overall. The league average is 8.8%. Jarren's O-Z contact% vs LHP is 52.3, 16th percentile in the league
So, he's driving balls in the zone well against lefties, but for whatever reason he is swinging and missing more than last year on balls. I'm not sure if this is a mechanics issue or a new approach, or maybe he's just not picking up the pitch out of the hand as easy.
Duran's struggle on pitches outside of the zone vs LHP mostly comes down to two pitches: inside fastballs and outside sliders. Conversely, against RHP it's the low changeup
The fastball/slider combo from LHP completely has Duran out of wack--he's hitting 188/235/313 vs LHP fastballs and owns a 43% K rate vs LHP sliders--not good:(
I'd like to see Jarren wait for lefties to come in the zone on him; this might mean taking until the pitcher throws a strike. Correspondingly, waiting for his pitch might translate to more walks=more steals=more runs!
Thanks for reading and let's hope Jarren can get the burners going as the season heats up. F*ck 'em!