What's up with Ceddanne?

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Cameron Tran said:

Bloom definetly jumped the gun with Bello. Hope he can develop into a high-end #3 but definitely not worth the 16-22M we'll be paying him

 

I see the point on Bello, but if he had/has a couple really good years, the whole idea can shift to it looking good.

He's making $2.5, this year, which would have been pre-arb.

$6M in '26 and $8.5M in '27 seems like very high arb contracts.

$16M in '28 is where it really starts looking very sketchy and risky. $19M in '29 with a $1M buyout for '30 is not a killer.

I'm hopeful he can make this deal look good. He might have a better chance at proving it that Rafaela.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Cameron Tran said:

I agree. There should be enough space for Rafaela to still get a solid amount of PAs while platooning against LHP and filling in at SS and 2B when needed. Love the glove as a late-inning defensive replacement. My question for you is do you trust WIlyer as an everyday player? Or should it be Duran, Rafaela and Anthony against LHPs? Don't love the idea of Anthony bouncing between LF and RF his rookie season, but he's been doing it all throughout the minors

Abreu has not proven he can hit LHPs well enough to break out of the platoon role. Duran has not done great vs lefties, either, so maybe he can get a few days off as Abreu or Rafaela get to play vs some LH'd starters.

I think Anthony needs to play near FT to be worth the call up, and I mean almost totally FT.

When Devers gets a day off, we could DH an OF'er (Duran or Anthony.)

[notin]

51 minutes ago, Cameron Tran said:

im confident he'll get atleast a little bit better with experience. Most of his batted ball data (minus all the groundballs) is strong. Plate discipline is something that comes with time and he can't be this bad forever. Still don't think his ceiling is anything higher than like fringe all-star, maybe like benintendi level. If he can become our new Brock Holt for the rest of the contract id consider that a win.

Ceddane’s contract is such that he need only average 1 fWAR per year to more than justify it.  HEs paid like a long term Kike Hernandez..

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes. I have had discussions with him over the deal, and it seems his main issue was about why the hurry? (Same with Bello.)

Bello's deal makes much more sense than Rafaela's. A light hitting defensive CFer doesn't make much in ARB or FA. His deal exceeds what he'd get if there was no extension IMO. Would he get 2/23 as a FA at age 29 if he's hitting less than 700 OPS? I guess we're comping JBJ and Kiermaier who had higher OPS. Maybe? 

Does it make sense that Bello bought out a FA year at 19M? What pitchers made more than 19M last season Buehler, Kikuchi, Martinez, Manaea, Severino... Yeah, Bello at 19M makes sense. They probably even pick up his 21M option the following year.

Bello's contract makes sense because of how expensive pitching is. It's not the same for CFers with Rafaela's skillset. 

[Hitch]

41 minutes ago, notin said:

Ceddane’s contract is such that he need only average 1 fWAR per year to more than justify it.  HEs paid like a long term Kike Hernandez..

Agreed. I don't see an issue with his contract all. 

[Kimmi]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's about getting better. You can get better without fixing  a "problem."

You can also make matters worse, not only for the short term but also for the long term, by making rash decisions.

[Kimmi]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes. I have had discussions with him over the deal, and it seems his main issue was about why the hurry? (Same with Bello.)

Damned if they do and damned if they don't.  It's a risk the team has to take.  It's easy to question why they extended a player so early when the player isn't playing up to people's expectations.  

[sk7326]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He's making $1M, this year and has a .4 fWAR and .6 bWAR. So far, so good with the contract.

RAF makes $2M, next year: that should be oksay.

Maybe, in 2027, when he makes $3.5M, it might be a little waste of money, if he's still here and playing just a strict utility role. 

The real issue might begin in 2028, and that assumes he has not improved beyond utility. ($5.5M)

2029: $7.5M (with salary inflation, maybe this is not all that bad.)

2030: $10.5M and 2031 at $13M look pretty bad, as of now. There is also a $4M buyout on the $16M club option for 2032, making that last year, essentially and possibly a $17M salary.

I'm not worried about his deal. It's not like the Price, Yoshi or Story deals.

 

This should be a pretty tradeable contract at minimum given yearly salary inflation.  Even now, the pathway to him being a perfectly reasonable starter (which would more than justify this contract) is pretty reasonable.  I mean, a .280 OBP won't cut it ... but a .300 OBP with the power and defense he has shown at CF does (at least for a number of teams).  

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Kimmi said:

Damned if they do and damned if they don't.  It's a risk the team has to take.  It's easy to question why they extended a player so early when the player isn't playing up to people's expectations.  

I had the same question the day the deal was signed. He needs to exceed expectations to make the deal worthwhile for the Sox.

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, notin said:

Ceddane’s contract is such that he need only average 1 fWAR per year to more than justify it.  HEs paid like a long term Kike Hernandez..

He's on pace for a 3-4 WAR season, thanks to his D.

[mvp 78]

17 hours ago, notin said:

Ceddane’s contract is such that he need only average 1 fWAR per year to more than justify it.  HEs paid like a long term Kike Hernandez..

They should just extend every 1 fWAR guy for 6/48 then because it'll be justified per FanGraphs' calculations. No negative impact to the payroll for that! 

[Hitch]

15 hours ago, Kimmi said:

Damned if they do and damned if they don't.  It's a risk the team has to take.  It's easy to question why they extended a player so early when the player isn't playing up to people's expectations.  

I was thinking this exact thing last night as Casas scuffled again before the big hit - if we'd signed him to an extension (and a meaty one at that), the complaints would be pouring in right now. 

There's a relatively simple idea that baseball fans in particular need to be more comfortable with than most sports fans I believe - you can make the right decision and still get the wrong outcome.

Revisionism can be a real pain in the arse in this sport. Mainly because fans in general have very short memories.

[mvp 78]

Just now, Hitch said:

I was thinking this exact thing last night as Casas scuffled again before the big hit - if we'd signed him to an extension (and a meaty one at that), the complaints would be pouring in right now. 

There's a relatively simple idea that baseball fans in particular need to be more comfortable with than most sports fans I believe - you can make the right decision and still get the wrong outcome.

Revisionism can be a real pain in the arse in this sport. Mainly because fans in general have very short memories.

What revisionism are we talking about here exactly? 

[Hitch]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They should just extend every 1 fWAR guy for 6/48 then because it'll be justified per FanGraphs' calculations. No negative impact to the payroll for that! 

They have to take risks with these kids. Some will work out and some won't. In fairness to you, I remember you being against the deal from early on, but an AVV of $8m is not going to break us if it isn't a roaring success. 

I'd rather these risks be taken than on say, the Story/Yoshida's of the world. 

[notin]

17 hours ago, Cameron Tran said:

Bloom definetly jumped the gun with Bello. Hope he can develop into a high-end #3 but definitely not worth the 16-22M we'll be paying him

 

Jumped the gun? Bloom didn’t extend Bello until 8 months after Boston fired him!  That’s a fair amount of patience in my book…

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

What revisionism are we talking about here exactly? 

Revisionism of almost every kind. From decisions around pitcher changes, to trades, to contract extension/offers. In every case you can make the right decision and get the wrong outcome. But in general fans will hammer the mistakes regardless, and often even forget that they supported such a move. It happens in all sports, but baseball seems uniquely open to the rule. 

[notin]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They should just extend every 1 fWAR guy for 6/48 then because it'll be justified per FanGraphs' calculations. No negative impact to the payroll for that! 

Exactly.

Its not the middling salaries on the 1 fWAR players that cause the payroll issues…

[mvp 78]

Just now, Hitch said:

They have to take risks with these kids. Some will work out and some won't. In fairness to you, I remember you being against the deal from early on, but an AVV of $8m is not going to break us if it isn't a roaring success. 

I'd rather these risks be taken than on say, the Story/Yoshida's of the world. 

I think you extend SOME of the young guys. Guys that have high ceilings. I just don't think Rafaela is that guy. While the contract is "worth it" per FanGraphs' calculations, the Sox would most likely pay him less if they went year to year. The reason you extend guys is to give the players security, while giving yourself a slight bargain. That's not happening with Rafaela. With Bello, I think the price was a little high, but for a starting pitcher with Bello's ceiling, it's fine. If they extended Dobbins and Fitts, I'd be fine with it too because of how expensive pitchers are (they'd most likely be way cheaper than Bello). 

Anthony and Mayer SHOULD be prime candidates for extensions. They are potentially future All Star guys. Same as Campbell. Those are the everyday guys that you try to lock up. I don't think you try to lock up future 8-9th hitters unless it's a discount and it wasn't here. You lock up the core of the team. I don't think Rafaela is that. It's not a knock on Rafaela either. He's a good player. He's just not a guy you're building a team around. 

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I think you extend SOME of the young guys. Guys that have high ceilings. I just don't think Rafaela is that guy. While the contract is "worth it" per FanGraphs' calculations, the Sox would most likely pay him less if they went year to year. The reason you extend guys is to give the players security, while giving yourself a slight bargain. That's not happening with Rafaela. With Bello, I think the price was a little high, but for a starting pitcher with Bello's ceiling, it's fine. If they extended Dobbins and Fitts, I'd be fine with it too because of how expensive pitchers are (they'd most likely be way cheaper than Bello). 

Anthony and Mayer SHOULD be prime candidates for extensions. They are potentially future All Star guys. Same as Campbell. Those are the everyday guys that you try to lock up. I don't think you try to lock up future 8-9th hitters unless it's a discount and it wasn't here. You lock up the core of the team. I don't think Rafaela is that. It's not a knock on Rafaela either. He's a good player. He's just not a guy you're building a team around. 

I think Anthony, and Mayer are going to be harder to extend than Campbell was.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I think Anthony, and Mayer are going to be harder to extend than Campbell was.

Probably. I doubt they get one done for Anthony. Maybe they can get one for Mayer. 

[notin]

17 hours ago, notin said:

Ceddane’s contract is such that he need only average 1 fWAR per year to more than justify it.  HEs paid like a long term Kike Hernandez..

The most important thing about the deals for Rafaela and Bello was the Sox were finally committing to long term contracts for pre-arb players, something they have continued with Campbell and Crochet…

[notin]

14 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I think Anthony, and Mayer are going to be harder to extend than Campbell was.

Reportedly Anthony has already been difficult, but I haven’t heard that anything has been attempted with Mayer.

Of course, it would really help to know the offer Anthony allegedly rebuffed.  Maybe he is reluctant to extend, but also maybe the Sox were just cheap…

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

The most important thing about the deals for Rafaela and Bello was the Sox were finally committing to long term contracts for pre-arb players, something they have continued with Campbell and Crochet…

Crochet wasn't pre-Arb, but I kind of agree. I would have less of a problem with the Rafaela extension if the money was half. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Reportedly Anthony has already been difficult, but I haven’t heard of anything has been attempted with Mayer.

Of course, it would really help to know the offer Anyhony allegedly rebuffed.  Maybe he is reluctant to extend, but also maybe the Sox were just cheap…

I haven't put much thought into it because I've heard several SOURCES say it's unlikely. 

[Hugh2]

Anthony strikes me as the type of guy who is going to bet on himself and wait out the market. 

If he signs an extension in Boston it's going to be for a lot.  And if you're betting on yourself, you know the closer to FA you are the more money you're going to get.  

If Anthony is the guy we hope he is, he's going to take over 1/2 a billion to sign him in about 4-5 years from now. 

That's just the type of player he strikes me as, and that ain't bad, it ain't bad to be like Campbell either and take the security.  I mean, Anthony did get about $2 million more than Campbell in the draft so he's got a little cushion to sit on and wait. 

[notin]

26 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think you extend SOME of the young guys. Guys that have high ceilings. I just don't think Rafaela is that guy. While the contract is "worth it" per FanGraphs' calculations, the Sox would most likely pay him less if they went year to year. The reason you extend guys is to give the players security, while giving yourself a slight bargain. That's not happening with Rafaela. With Bello, I think the price was a little high, but for a starting pitcher with Bello's ceiling, it's fine. If they extended Dobbins and Fitts, I'd be fine with it too because of how expensive pitchers are (they'd most likely be way cheaper than Bello). 

Anthony and Mayer SHOULD be prime candidates for extensions. They are potentially future All Star guys. Same as Campbell. Those are the everyday guys that you try to lock up. I don't think you try to lock up future 8-9th hitters unless it's a discount and it wasn't here. You lock up the core of the team. I don't think Rafaela is that. It's not a knock on Rafaela either. He's a good player. He's just not a guy you're building a team around. 

Cut Breslow some slack.  He was just getting started and is still relatively new to this whole “who do you extend” strategy.  Not like the Sox FO has anyone on board who has any relevant experience and can help…

[notin]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I haven't put much thought into it because I've heard several SOURCES say it's unlikely. 

Do those sources have names or does their credibility rely on their CAPITALIZATION?

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

Revisionism of almost every kind. From decisions around pitcher changes, to trades, to contract extension/offers. In every case you can make the right decision and get the wrong outcome. But in general fans will hammer the mistakes regardless, and often even forget that they supported such a move. It happens in all sports, but baseball seems uniquely open to the rule. 

Ive never done this

(Im revisioning my past revisionings)

[Hitch]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I think you extend SOME of the young guys. Guys that have high ceilings. I just don't think Rafaela is that guy. While the contract is "worth it" per FanGraphs' calculations, the Sox would most likely pay him less if they went year to year. The reason you extend guys is to give the players security, while giving yourself a slight bargain. That's not happening with Rafaela. With Bello, I think the price was a little high, but for a starting pitcher with Bello's ceiling, it's fine. If they extended Dobbins and Fitts, I'd be fine with it too because of how expensive pitchers are (they'd most likely be way cheaper than Bello). 

Anthony and Mayer SHOULD be prime candidates for extensions. They are potentially future All Star guys. Same as Campbell. Those are the everyday guys that you try to lock up. I don't think you try to lock up future 8-9th hitters unless it's a discount and it wasn't here. You lock up the core of the team. I don't think Rafaela is that. It's not a knock on Rafaela either. He's a good player. He's just not a guy you're building a team around. 

As a few of the posters have mentioned - Anthony looks like he will bet on himself. I think this assumption came from a report on Mass Live where he'd hinted it in a group interview. 

Not to say it won't happen obviously, but yeah that feels like it is going to be a tough one, and if he's as good as we're al hoping - tit'll be costly. Mayer will get done I think, but so far he's come with some worrying injury trends, so we'll have to see how that plays out, too. 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

They should just extend every 1 fWAR guy for 6/48 then because it'll be justified per FanGraphs' calculations. No negative impact to the payroll for that! 

Except Rafaela has been more than a 1 WAR player.

1.2 fWAR per 160

3.0 bWAR per 160.