A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

Good to see SEA lose.

DET is taking a real nosedive. CLE beat 'em.

As of now, we are tied w SEA and HOU, but HOU is beating TEX.

NYY is up 1.5 on us and is about to win.

CLE is -2.5 and have won 9 of 10!

 

[moonslav59]

Great to see Duran heat up. Breggie hit the ball hard a couple times. Ref is da man!

Story keeps coming through.

How about Lowe on base 4 times!

Props to Yoshida for shutting me the F*** UP!

This pen has been shockingly amazing, and dare I say it, Cora has done a masterful job getting many of these guys to do well in teh roles he puts them in.

7 RP'ers used, tonight!

5.2 IP

5 hits (2 allowed by Chapman!)

1BB after Gio walked 5!

And of course the big goose egg on runs allowed to a damn good hitting team!

Now, don't ease off the throttle. Gotta take the day game, tomorrow!

[moonslav59]

Weird how a month ago, it looked like everyone was hoping and praying we'd find a way to bring Gio and Breggie back, next year. Now, it's kinda... meh?

[moonslav59]

Gio's option was met, tonight:

2026:$14M club option if Giolito exercises 2025 option (2026 becomes $19M mutual option with $1.5M buyout if Giolito has 140 innings in 2025 – MET)

[cp176]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Weird how a month ago, it looked like everyone was hoping and praying we'd find a way to bring Gio and Breggie back, next year. Now, it's kinda... meh?

I’m still that guy.  I think that we need them both going forward.  

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Good to see SEA lose.

DET is taking a real nosedive. CLE beat 'em.

As of now, we are tied w SEA and HOU, but HOU is beating TEX.

NYY is up 1.5 on us and is about to win.

CLE is -2.5 and have won 9 of 10!

 

Sox own a tiebreaker vs CLE. If the Sox go 5-5, CLE needs to go 9-2 I believe. 

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Weird how a month ago, it looked like everyone was hoping and praying we'd find a way to bring Gio and Breggie back, next year. Now, it's kinda... meh?

Long season for Gio coming off an injury. Not surprised he's slowing down at the end TBH. If they could bring him back, he'd probably hold up better over a full season next year. 

[Hugh2]

I would love Giolito for another year, but I don't feel as strongly about a long term deal. 

I think you offer him the Q.O. and if he walks Ces La Vie. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, cp176 said:

I’m still that guy.  I think that we need them both going forward.  

I'd like them both back, too, but I'm not as sure as I was a month ago. I'd rather have Ryan than Gio. Keller might be about equal.

FA pitchers tend to be grossly overpaid and for 2-3 years too long.

[Bellhorn04]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Weird how a month ago, it looked like everyone was hoping and praying we'd find a way to bring Gio and Breggie back, next year. Now, it's kinda... meh?

It's not really weird.  Both veterans on short term deals, great for stretches and not so great for others (baseball being the humbling grind that it is) and fans being the fair weather friends they are...nope, not weird, totally predictable in fact.

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox own a tiebreaker vs CLE. If the Sox go 5-5, CLE needs to go 9-2 I believe. 

Good to know on the tie breaker.

CLE has 4 more games vs DET and are 4 GB in the loss column. After today's game at DET, they play 4 at MIN, day off and then a tough 6 game homestand vs DET & TEX.

DET does not have it any easier: today v CLE, 3 v ATL, day off then 3 at CLE & 3 at BOS.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I would love Giolito for another year, but I don't feel as strongly about a long term deal. 

I think you offer him the Q.O. and if he walks Ces La Vie. 

Agreed.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's not really weird.  Both veterans on short term deals, great for stretches and not so great for others (baseball being the humbling grind that it is) and fans being the fair weather friends they are...nope, not weird, totally predictable in fact.

It's a bit uncommon that two vets having a really good season, in their prime, both slump pretty badly at the same time. The weirdest part of it is how epic the Breggie slumps is:

.438 OPS for Bregman since AUG 23 (.516 in last 30 days)

Gio's "slump" is more about the uptick in BBs:

18 BB in 33.2 IP in the last 30 days. (3.68 FIP)

34 BB in 106.2 IP beforehand, but a 4.33 FIP

[drewski6]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Weird how a month ago, it looked like everyone was hoping and praying we'd find a way to bring Gio and Breggie back, next year. Now, it's kinda... meh?

I still want Gio

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's not really weird.  Both veterans on short term deals, great for stretches and not so great for others (baseball being the humbling grind that it is) and fans being the fair weather friends they are...nope, not weird, totally predictable in fact.

What's weird is why anyone would want to jump off a bandwagon. It's tunes.

Unless the music was really bad -- but then what possible improvements could cause fans to jump back on? Ringo instead of Pete Best? Drummers are usually behind singers and guitars. A new singer? Both leads for AC/DC had screechy voices; or was that Rush... Van Halen lost a high-pitched scream. Daisy Jones made the Six.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

I still want Gio

At the QO cost, sure. I'm not sure what he gets on the FA market. I'd be interested.

[oldtimer]

Back from 2 weeks traveling in Canada. I followed the Sox when possible. I still have questions about the Sox management and decision making. Decision making surfaced again in the game where Cora removed Early, but I'm thinking more in terms of long term decisions. Failure to add a big bat when we needed one. Failure to bring Anthony up early and then failure to develop Password who was another potential big bat. The Sox offense looks anemic and could and should have been bolstered.  The Sox has suffered numerous injuries but so have other teams. One run losses too often. They may well bite us. If we fail to make the playoff again, i would recommend replacement of Cora. 

[MADSTORK]

How do you figure Garcia wasn’t developed? He was called up for a few days and rode the bench..

failure by upper management at moment is not giving the top positional prospects a chance to compete at the ML level.

see Garcia and Campbell who should have been recalled weeks ago because of the lack of offense..

Grant it minus Mayer Anthony and Abreu being out doesn’t help, but there are far better options with the above than the beer leaguers you have up with a combined ops less than 650 in the current lineup..

 

I had this Team at 78 wins, they have exceeded my and everyone else’s expectations.

Even if Anthony and Abreu return, Team doesn’t have enough Offense to win a series let alone only one legit SP who could win a playoff game by himself..

Indians making a strong run Mariners have better SP

I quote the great Tito Francona

”good luck with that”

 

 

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, MADSTORK said:

How do you figure Garcia wasn’t developed? He was called up for a few days and rode the bench..

failure by upper management at moment is not giving the top positional prospects a chance to compete at the ML level.

see Garcia and Campbell who should have been recalled weeks ago because of the lack of offense..

Grant it minus Mayer Anthony and Abreu being out doesn’t help, but there are far better options with the above than the beer leaguers you have up with a combined ops less than 650 in the current lineup..

 

I had this Team at 78 wins, they have exceeded my and everyone else’s expectations.

Even if Anthony and Abreu return, Team doesn’t have enough Offense to win a series let alone only one legit SP who could win a playoff game by himself..

Indians making a strong run Mariners have better SP

I quote the great Tito Francona

”good luck with that”

Campbell can't hit a FB above 92 mph. What's he gonna do in MLB that's better than what the Sox are putting out there right now? 

[moonslav59]

Red Sox Series Record since Abreu went down, after Anthony:

3-1 NYY

4-0 BAL

1-2 PIT

1-2 AZ

2-1 ATH

1-2 NYY

1-2 ATH

We've won 3 series and lost 4 (all by 1 game.)

Overall record: 13-10

This team's M.O. is ups and downs, yet the doom and gloomers assume the M.O. changes bases on two lost series 2 games to 1.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

How's this: if the Red Sox can just win 4 and lose 5 the rest of the way, they can still limp into the playoffs with 87 wins -- unless Cleveland goes 7-3.

If the Guardians go 6-4 and wind up tied with the Sox, they'd be out of luck since Boston has won the tiebreaker.

But if the Tigers keep choking and only win two more games, the Guards could win the Central. And then the results of the final Sox-Tigers series would determine the tiebreaker between Boston and Detroit for the last Wild Card.

It is doubtful the Sox and their flaccid bats will take two out of three in Tampa, and then another two of three in Toronto. But hopefully their pitching will be able to salvage a W in each city.

At least the last three with Detroit are at Fenway, including weekend day games on both Saturday and Sunday on the final two days of the regular season. We can win that series, right? Right?!?!

[moonslav59]

This was CLE's line-up by OPS, yesterday:

.705

.644 (The "best hitter slot")

.860

.599 (Mr. Cleanup)

.790

.647

.462

.624

.510

.600

That's a 3 Wong and 3 DHam line-up.

[moonslav59]

 

No doubt the Sox have been in a pretty long slump- maybe dating back to the Anthony or Abreu injuries, but we are not alone.

Team OPS in last 7, 14 and 28 Days:

.684/.694/.734 BOS (year .747)

.548/.659/.709 DET (year .735)

.657/.658/.762 TOR (year .762)

.717/.707/.798 TBR (year .717) Only the Rays are hitting better than they did earlier in the season, out of teams we are going to face to end the 2025 season.

HOU is worse than the Sox in the 14 day (.688) and 28 day sample (,718) but are better over the last 7 days (.743.)

CLE is worse in the 28 day (.648) but better in 14 (.730) and 7 day (.736) samples.

NYY & SEA are better in all 3 samples.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Might as well ask: can Crochet make three more starts? 

Tonight vs. Tampa, then Wednesday in Toronto on 4 days rest, then the final game of the season vs. Detroit on... 3 days rest. 

If it's a must-win to make the playoffs, will the front office refuse to let Cora not use their ace?

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Might as well ask: can Crochet make three more starts? 

Tonight vs. Tampa, then Wednesday in Toronto on 4 days rest, then the final game of the season vs. Detroit on... 3 days rest. 

If it's a must-win to make the playoffs, will the front office refuse to let Cora not use their ace?

Depends on how he looks the next two starts. Could be more important to go with a guy like Early in Game 162 and rest Crochet for the WC? 

xFIP since ASB:

Early 1.43

Crochet 2.36

Tolle 3.71

Bello 4.32

Giolito 5.02

[Deja Doh]

9 games left and we have a 1 game advantage in the loss column over Cleveland for the last wild card slot.  Seattle and Houston still have 3 games against each other with the Mariners ending up with 3 games at home against the Dodgers.

[mvp 78]

Just now, Deja Doh said:

9 games left and we have a 1 game advantage in the loss column over Cleveland for the last wild card slot.  Seattle and Houston still have 3 games against each other with the Mariners ending up with 3 games at home against the Dodgers.

1 game advantage AND hold the tiebreaker. 

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

This was CLE's line-up by OPS, yesterday:

.705

.644 (The "best hitter slot")

.860

.599 (Mr. Cleanup)

.790

.647

.462

.624

.510

.600

That's a 3 Wong and 3 DHam line-up.

Hey look at all the noodlebats on a team that sold off on the deadline, but is still better than the rest of the absolute dog-crap AL somehow.  Maybe we can sneak in this year or next with noodle-bats also? Why even try to win? You see teams trying to lose (selling-off) and sneaking in.

*This isnt directed at you , this is directed at MLB

If we cant win, go Dodgers!  I will not root for GMs selling off and cheap owners.  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Depends on how he looks the next two starts. Could be more important to go with a guy like Early in Game 162 and rest Crochet for the WC? 

xFIP since ASB:

Early 1.43

Crochet 2.36

Tolle 3.71

Bello 4.32

Giolito 5.02

Sox need to win at least 4 of the final 9 to make it... as long as Cleveland doesn't play .700 in the last 10 (Guards go 7-3 and we're out).

So Boston needs 3 wins on Crochet Days, and hopefully one from Early or Gio. I have no confidence right now in Bello-up.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Hey look at all the noodlebats on a team that sold off on the deadline, but is still better than the rest of the absolute dog-crap AL somehow.  Maybe we can sneak in this year or next with noodle-bats also? Why even try to win? You see teams trying to lose (selling-off) and sneaking in.

*This isnt directed at you , this is directed at MLB

If we cant win, go Dodgers!  I will not root for GMs selling off and cheap owners.  

MLB loves this.

Sad but true.