A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

The next week:

BOS: OFF, 3 v ATL, 3 at TBR

HOU: 3 v TEX, OFF, 3 v SEA (somebody will lose 3-6 games)

TEX: 3 at HOU, OFF, 3 v MIA

SEA: OFF, 3 @ KCR, 3 @ HOU

NYY: (No days off) 3 @ MIN, 4 @ BAL, 

[moonslav59]

With the day off, do we rest our top 3 SP'ers by giving them an extra day off, or do we have Early & Tolle pitch a piggyback start, and go with out best 3 sooner, so maybe we get an extra start from one at the end, if needed.

We have another day off to come.

Max best 3 

OFF

ATH Early/Tolle

ATH GIO

ATH Bello

@TBR Crochet

@TBR Early/Tolle

@TBR GIO -1

OFF

@TOR Bello

@TOR Crochet 

@ TOR Early

DET GIO

DET Bello -1, if needed (or Tolle)

DET Crochet -1, if needed or Bello/Harrison

 

Rest 3

OFF

ATH Early

ATH Tolle

ATH Gio + 1Bello

@TBR Bello + 1

@TBR Crochet + 1

@TBR Early/Tolle

OFF

@TOR Gio

 

@TOR Bello 

@ TOR Crochet

DET Early

DET Tolle

DET Gio (Harrison)

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

The next week:

BOS: OFF, 3 v ATL, 3 at TBR

HOU: 3 v TEX, OFF, 3 v SEA (somebody will lose 3-6 games)

TEX: 3 at HOU, OFF, 3 v MIA

SEA: OFF, 3 @ KCR, 3 @ HOU

NYY: (No days off) 3 @ MIN, 4 @ BAL, 

Thanks.  

[moonslav59]

Here is a good one: what current Sox pitcher has a -0.65 FIP but a 1.200 WHIP?

Another one: We have 8 pitchers with an FIP under 2.90, which one is not one of them? Slaten, Wilson or Moran?

One more: We all can guess correctly at Chapman leading the team in hits/9 IP (3.9,) but guess who is in the next group of 3?

Crochet, Whitlock & Bello?

Slaten, Bernardino & Gio?

Guerrero, Murphy & Matz?

[moonslav59]

The biggest remaining series that may shape the AL WC standings:

TEX at HOU (starting tonight: loser of series might end up out.)

SEA at HOU

BOS at TOR

BOS v DET

SEA at KCR

SEA v LAD

TEX at CLE (might be out by this last series in season)

 

[moonslav59]

MLB.com projected two Sox GG winners. Here are their write-ups:

RF: Abreu: Seeking his second straight Gold Glove, Abreu touts an elite combination of range and arm strength. Abreu has made more five-star catches (eight) than anyone not named Pete Crow-Armstrong, an impressive accomplishment for a corner outfielder. Not to mention, his average arm strength is 94.3 mph, good for the 98th percentile. Should Abreu and Rafaela each win a Gold Glove, they would become the first pair of Red Sox outfielders to win Gold Gloves in the same season since Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. in 2018.

CF: Rafaela: Rafaela has split time between second base and center field, but injuries to Wilyer Abreu and Roman Anthony have shifted the 24-year-old back to center on a full-time basis. That's good news for the Red Sox, because he's elite in the outfield. He's been worth +19 Outs Above Average, tied with Pete Crow-Armstrong for the most among outfielders. Much of his value derives from his excellent jumps, as his average jump is 5.2 feet better than average.

 

[Randy Red Sox]

On 9/15/2025 at 11:20 AM, moonslav59 said:

With the day off, do we rest our top 3 SP'ers by giving them an extra day off, or do we have Early & Tolle pitch a piggyback start, and go with out best 3 sooner, so maybe we get an extra start from one at the end, if needed.

We have another day off to come.

Max best 3 

OFF

ATH Early/Tolle

ATH GIO

ATH Bello

@TBR Crochet

@TBR Early/Tolle

@TBR GIO -1

OFF

@TOR Bello

@TOR Crochet 

@ TOR Early

DET GIO

DET Bello -1, if needed (or Tolle)

DET Crochet -1, if needed or Bello/Harrison

 

Rest 3

OFF

ATH Early

ATH Tolle

ATH Gio + 1Bello

@TBR Bello + 1

@TBR Crochet + 1

@TBR Early/Tolle

OFF

@TOR Gio

 

@TOR Bello 

@ TOR Crochet

DET Early

DET Tolle

DET Gio (Harrison)

i would be using Early far before Tolle.  if the latter doesn't develop at least a good 2nd pitch with some separation from his FB he is nothing more than a #4-5 SP at best.

[illinoisredsox]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i would be using Early far before Tolle.  if the latter doesn't develop at least a good 2nd pitch with some separation from his FB he is nothing more than a #4-5 SP at best.

Disagree on Tolle.  If he doesn't develop a second pitch, he has no future in MLB period.  Major League hitters will destroy him.  If he only develops a competent second pitch, he's a middle reliever at best.  He's a long way from being a major league starter right now and will need another year if not 2 in the minors.

Early didn't have overpowering stuff as a kid and thus learned early (no pun intended) how to use pitch selection and control to set hitters up.  Once he put on some weight, his fastball increased, but he still knows how to pitch.  His ceiling is probably a #3 because he doesn't have a devastating first pitch, but he can be very successful.

[moonslav59]

It's kinda funny how GMs and scouts are routinely bashed for "missing" on draft picks, especially high ones, yet every one of us thought Tolle was our best pitching prospect, including me.

I had offered Abreu, Early and Sandlin for Ryan.

[mvp 78]

Sox offense with Devers: 103 wRC+

Sox offense with Anthony: 104 wRC+

Sox offense since Anthony injury: 83 wRC+

This offense needs to be led by a big bat and nobody is able to step up right now. 

[notin]

47 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's kinda funny how GMs and scouts are routinely bashed for "missing" on draft picks, especially high ones, yet every one of us thought Tolle was our best pitching prospect, including me.

I had offered Abreu, Early and Sandlin for Ryan.

At one point on the other board, some folks thought Kason Gabbard was the better LHP prospect over Jon Lester.

Small sample sizes.  They can mislead you…

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

At one point on the other board, some folks thought Kason Gabbard was the better LHP prospect over Jon Lester.

Small sample sizes.  They can mislead you…

No excuse for that. SoxProspects did exist back then! I remember being excited when Papelbon and Lester were called up. 

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

At one point on the other board, some folks thought Kason Gabbard was the better LHP prospect over Jon Lester.

Small sample sizes.  They can mislead you…

True. Prospect and draftee rating and rankings are often based on how hard a guy can throw or how much break he gets on his breaking pitches, and not so much on college or HS ERA or WHIP.

It's easy to be mislead, and these guys are human- both the pitchers be evaluated and the people doing the evaluations.

For all the talk of how bad our farm had gotten with acquiring and developing young pitchers, and rightfully so, I feel like a shift began a few years back and the trend can just about be called "over."

Call it luck or whatever, things started changing when Houck came up and showed some skills. DD got a lot of grief for "emptying the farm," but he did keep or add some arms that turned out to be pretty good, and certainly better than we had seen for quite a few years after Lester. Crawford and Bello, added to Houck were the best trio of SP'ers from our farm in a long, long time.

Then, Bloom acquired Whitlock (Rule 5) and guys like Pivetta, Kelly and Wickowski- not great, but better than much of what we had before. (Pivetta was not a prospect.) He also drafted Early, Dobbins, Valera, Guerrero and others

Perales has yet to get a shot, due to injuries, and we did see several rather highly touted pitching prospects fizzle out- like Mata, Groome, DHern & TWard. The Brez regime has marked a major push towards acquiring young and promising pitchers Trades landed us Slaten, Fitts, Priester, Fajardo, Holobetz,  Weissert, Sandlin, Harrison, J Bello, I Campbell, Moran and others in just 2 years. The amount of pitchers taken in the draft was astounding, and larger IFA bonuses were paid to pitchers than in recent years.

If Houck was not out for the 2026 season, we might have seen 4 homegrown SP'ers in the rotation with Crochet (Houck, Bello, Crawford, Dobbins, Early, Tolle...)

Soxprospects.com has 7 of our top 9 prospects as pitchers! 5 of the next 11 are pitchers, too. Holobetz, Delzine, Mullins and others may crack the top 20, soon.

Now, it seems we need to focus on acquiring a couple big bats to rebalance the roster.

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No excuse for that. SoxProspects did exist back then! I remember being excited when Papelbon and Lester were called up. 

In sp.com's first rankings list, they had....

3. Jorge de la Rosa

5. Dumatrait

7. Lester

By the end of 2003, it was...

1. Jorge de la Rosa

2. Lester

3. Youk

4. Shoppach

5. C Spann

6. HanRam

7. D Murphy

8. Delcarmen

Lester was #1 by the start of 2004, but Abe Alvarez passed him and was a head of Papelbon at #5 in midd '04.

By the end of 2005:

1. Papelbon

2. lester

3. Anibal Sanchez

5. C hansen

6. Delcarmen

10. Pauley, 15. Alvarez, 17. Buchholz

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I was a little harsh on Weissert. He has stranded an inherited runner since August 1 -- 1 out of 5 -- at least that's not a complete total failure.

The bigger problem is the Sox are 6 for 47 with runners in scoring position in the last 5 games, and have hit only 8 home runs in the past two weeks.

A lot of fans are blaming damaged goods Bregman, because he once hit 40 HRs and makes the same AAV as Judge. But combined with injuries to other key producers, no one can expect the O to suddenly become more powerful.

We're at a crossroads -- one sign points to the postseason, the other to choke season. Will management just stand by in the dugout and hope some pitches find the sweet spot of the Boston bats? Or will coaches finally force batters to choke up, shorten up, and make contact -- even bunt for a hit once in awhile -- to put the damn ball in play?

We can't have bases loaded with no outs and not score anymore. Not if they want to keep playing in October.

p.s. If Henry signs both Schwarber and Alonso this winter, I'll buy him a whole box of cigars he can smoke in front of his fireplace

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

It's kinda funny how GMs and scouts are routinely bashed for "missing" on draft picks, especially high ones, yet every one of us thought Tolle was our best pitching prospect, including me.

I had offered Abreu, Early and Sandlin for Ryan.

I mean, Tolle looks the part.

[drewski6]

58 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox offense with Devers: 103 wRC+

Sox offense with Anthony: 104 wRC+

Sox offense since Anthony injury: 83 wRC+

This offense needs to be led by a big bat and nobody is able to step up right now. 

Closest we have at present is probs Story (yes this is too much to ask of Story)

I would also submit that asking RA to be that big bat next year is asking too much of RA

[moonslav59]

I think we need Bregman, Story and Duran to all hit over .750 and maybe .800+.

Our next hope is Abreu's return.

Narvaez, Romy & Ref can only do so much.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Closest we have at present is probs Story (yes this is too much to ask of Story)

I would also submit that asking RA to be that big bat next year is asking too much of RA

Asking WAY too much of Story. I think we should be happy that he made it to mid-September without hitting the IL. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Asking WAY too much of Story. I think we should be happy that he made it to mid-September without hitting the IL. 

Just asking him to do what's he been doing for 3+ months:

.827 June

.870 July

.817 August

.938 Sept & counting

Since June 1st: .851

.295 17 68 in 375 PAs

The guy goes .938 in SEPT and his OPS only goes up from .744 to .749 (actually .731 on Aug 31st)

[Larry Cook]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox offense with Devers: 103 wRC+

Sox offense with Anthony: 104 wRC+

Sox offense since Anthony injury: 83 wRC+

This offense needs to be led by a big bat and nobody is able to step up right now. 

Do we need to put pictures of Bregman and rafeala on milk cartons????

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's kinda funny how GMs and scouts are routinely bashed for "missing" on draft picks, especially high ones, yet every one of us thought Tolle was our best pitching prospect, including me.

I had offered Abreu, Early and Sandlin for Ryan.

Keeping Early might be a good idea.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

,,

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Just now, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

....

 

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox offense with Devers: 103 wRC+

Sox offense with Anthony: 104 wRC+

Sox offense since Anthony injury: 83 wRC+

This offense needs to be led by a big bat and nobody is able to step up right now. 

Abreu is due back soon? and perhaps he can at least bring a medium size bat.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

 

Abreu is due back soon? and perhaps he can at least bring a medium size bat.

He's listed as day-to-day. There was talk he might be ready by the A's series of the weekend series.

Cora, yesterday,

“(Abreu hit on Monday). He was a little bit sore, but not tight,” Cora said, as transcribed by Christopher Smith of MassLive. “I think it’s more about the workload on Sunday. He walked in (Tuesday) and said he felt better, so we’ll see what’s on the table and see where we’re at.”

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

He's listed as day-to-day. There was talk he might be ready by the A's series of the weekend series.

Cora, yesterday,

“(Abreu hit on Monday). He was a little bit sore, but not tight,” Cora said, as transcribed by Christopher Smith of MassLive. “I think it’s more about the workload on Sunday. He walked in (Tuesday) and said he felt better, so we’ll see what’s on the table and see where we’re at.”

Abreu is a slow healer. Let him slow heal somewhere else next season.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Abreu is a slow healer. Let him slow heal somewhere else next season.

Wow.

The guy is about to win a GG and was our HR leader before the injury.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Wow.

The guy is about to win a GG and was our HR leader before the injury.

Ya gotta trade something to get something. And stop with the fake surprise. You have him in most of your trade packages.

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Ya gotta trade something to get something. And stop with the fake surprise. You have him in most of your trade packages.

Not because he's milking an injury.

It's because others have talked me out of trading Duran.

[cp176]

Abreau should be in the lineup tonight.  I’m sorry but this is not the time to baby these guys.  Kind of like the move to replace Early lsat night after 80 pitches.   Cora is great with his players and people in general but many of his in games moves are for me quite puzzling