A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, notin said:

And 9 of our first 25 games were started by Sean Newcomb, Richard Fitts, and Hunter Dobbins, none of whom were anticipated to be in the opening day rotation…

Injured pitchers are a pretty commonplace issue these days.  

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Injured pitchers are a pretty commonplace issue these days.  

I think I'd rather Fitts and Dobbins than Gio going forward anyway. 🤔

[jdc69]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Injured pitchers are a pretty commonplace issue these days.  

Yet they pitch much less

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, jdc69 said:

Yet they pitch much less

The problem is they throw a lot harder and put a lot more spin on the ball.

Fitts reportedly added a couple MPH to his fastball since last year - but now he's injured.

[notin]

18 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Injured pitchers are a pretty commonplace issue these days.  

Losing 60% of your rotation before opening day isn’t, however…

[notin]

8 minutes ago, jdc69 said:

Yet they pitch much less

And throw much harder.  In the last 10 years, the average fastball is 3mph faster…

[notin]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think I'd rather Fitts and Dobbins than Gio going forward anyway. 🤔

Keep them all.  They’ll all be needed at some point.

And this makes the Priester trade more questionable…

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Losing 60% of your rotation before opening day isn’t, however…

60%?  Crochet, Houck and Buehler have made their starts.  

[jdc69]

19 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The problem is they throw a lot harder and put a lot more spin on the ball.

Fitts reportedly added a couple MPH to his fastball since last year - but now he's injured.

I've heard that but I don't see much difference in scoring numbers. They say scoring has gotten less but looking at scoring season to season, it's somewhat lower lately but has been a lot lower throughout the years. I'm kind of going off Nolan Ryan's philosophy that pitchers should pitch deeper into games. Pitchers throw their arms into injury smacks of them being the muscle of the machine while the unseen analytical team are the brains. The players and managers should be the muscle and the brains. 

[Bellhorn04]

29 minutes ago, jdc69 said:

I've heard that but I don't see much difference in scoring numbers. They say scoring has gotten less but looking at scoring season to season, it's somewhat lower lately but has been a lot lower throughout the years. I'm kind of going off Nolan Ryan's philosophy that pitchers should pitch deeper into games. Pitchers throw their arms into injury smacks of them being the muscle of the machine while the unseen analytical team are the brains. The players and managers should be the muscle and the brains. 

It's an indisputable fact that velocity and spin have increased a lot and everyone agrees it's put a lot more stress on pitcher's arms.

And pitchers aren't getting all these surgeries just for fun.

Nolan Ryan is not a good source because he was a freak of nature.  That's a compliment.

Looking at run scoring over the years is fair and would require a deeper dive.

 

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Once they decided they wouldn't be signing him it made sense to trade him, I'm not arguing with that, that's never been my issue.  I always thought it was strange that the trade came so late, though.  When the Padres traded Soto it happened on December 7.  Betts wasn't traded until February 10.  Maybe the Sox were worried about the effect on ticket sales, is the only thing I can figure.

Maybe they held out, thinking a better offer might come in.

Hard to know.

As it turned out, the comp pick returns for ERod (Anthony) and Bogey (Campbell) turned out better than Verdugo, Wong and the syndrome.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Keep them all.  They’ll all be needed at some point.

And this makes the Priester trade more questionable…

I think the value of Y Rod was just too much to turn down.

We still have better rotation depth than just about every team if not all of them.

[dgalehouse]

5 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Unfortunately I have to concede Splintered's point on this one.  The Sox record has to be discounted for a relatively soft schedule, including all 7 of our 2025 games against the White Sox.

Which doesn't mean the Sox aren't capable of playing better than they have so far.  

 The inimitable John Sterling explained it in three words. " That's baseball,  Suzyn."   There is much more randomness and just plain luck involved in a baseball game than there is in most other sports. You can lose to the worst team in the league, then beat one of the best. It happens quite a bit. Over the long season, it should become clearer as to who are the contenders and who are the pretenders. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

13 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's an indisputable fact that velocity and spin have increased a lot and everyone agrees it's put a lot more stress on pitcher's arms.

And pitchers aren't getting all these surgeries just for fun.

Nolan Ryan is not a good source because he was a freak of nature.  That's a compliment.

Looking at run scoring over the years is fair and would require a deeper dive.

 

Ryan also played in a different era... for half a decade into his 40s he was teammates with guys like Ivan Rodriquez, Rafael Palmiero, Juan Gonzalez, even Jose Canseco. That was a compliment then, but not so much in retrospect.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's an indisputable fact that velocity and spin have increased a lot and everyone agrees it's put a lot more stress on pitcher's arms.

And pitchers aren't getting all these surgeries just for fun.

Nolan Ryan is not a good source because he was a freak of nature.  That's a compliment.

Looking at run scoring over the years is fair and would require a deeper dive.

How come all these new guys can't throw as hard and as many pitches as the greatest pitchers of all time?!?!?

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

60%?  Crochet, Houck and Buehler have made their starts.  

Better to say they lost 50% of their top 6 starters, on paper.

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Unfortunately I have to concede Splintered's point on this one.  The Sox record has to be discounted for a relatively soft schedule, including all 7 of our 2025 games against the White Sox.

Doesn't it seem a bit contradictory, when some of us claimed we were better than our record showed, due to the unbalanced schedule and playing so many ALE teams, and Red shot down that point?

Now, the weak schedule says we are worse than our record shows?

I'd say you can't have it both ways.

That being said, I do think we were better back then, and are worse than our record shows, now. At least this position is consistent.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

How come all these new guys can't throw as hard and as many pitches as the greatest pitchers of all time?!?!?

What was Ryan's spin rate?

[jdc69]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That being said, I do think we were better back then, and are worse than our record shows, now. At least this position is consistent.

You don't think, talent wise, we are a playoff caliber team?

[Hitch]

18 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

No one is arguing Mayer "needs to come up." There is no thread on the forum like the one titled "Roman Anthony SHOULD be on the big league roster." 

Marcelo Mayer outplayed both Anthony and Kristian Campbell for a month in Spring Training, and is clearly as good as any other Red Sox infielder with his glove and arm in the majors right now.

"The mental side of the pressure" for Mayer was knowing he earned and thereby deserved a spot on Boston's roster, but had to go back to Worcester to bide his time (at least, that's what he said to the press).

Mayer is MLB ready, and might already even be at Chase Meidroth's level if he played in another organization and wasn't blocked at his position by Boston's current leader in batting average and slugging percentage. 

Then again, we know that's not the only reason, because the Red Sox owe their current shortstop over $80 million dollars... 

 

What do you mean no one is arguing Mayer needs to come up. You've literally been calling for him to come up to energise the teams offence. This post I'm replying to is saying he deserves to be in the big leagues.

How did he earn his spot? Spring Training? Have you always been of the mindset that ST stats matter? Or is this a new thing because you want to back up this point? Genuine question as you'd be very much in the minority in thinking ST stats matter for hitters much at all. The fact Campbell was given the job over him shows (quite rightly so far) that he was the guy to give the job to based off far more than meaningless baseball against pitchers trying to throw 5 curve balls in a row to get their feel.

Mayer didn't face a pitch in AAA after promotion and has lost substantial development time to injuries. He may well have got a place at a roster as terrible as the White Sox's, but that's another point against him isn't it? He's not at the White Sox, he's with us and has not proven he's better than Story, has not proven he's better than Bregman, and has not proven he's better than Campbell. He could replace Hamilton I guess, but then I think they see him as a full timer and don't want to burn a year on him being a utility guy. Plus as evidenced below - he's just not done enough either way.

Story - BA: 318 OBP: 348, OPS: 866

Bregman - BA: 297, OBP: 375, OPS: 880

Campbell - BA: 316, OBP: 418, OPS: 918

Mayer - BA: 223, OBP: 273, OPS: 684

 

Honestly, I'm not entirely sure you know what you're arguing for here. In consecutive posts you've said firstly that Mayer and Story have had similar seasons so far, and secondly that he's not in the Bigs because he's blocked at his position by Boston's current leader in batting average and slugging percentage. I mean, come on. 

In time Mayer will get here and prove to be very good I've no doubt, and there's certainly a case for Anthony to come up soon, even if the amount of weight behind him being some sort of saviour is concerning to me. But Mayer just isn't there right now. And he's got to work very hard to disprove this, or wait for injuries, which in fairness will inevitabley come. 

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Keep them all.  They’ll all be needed at some point.

And this makes the Priester trade more questionable…

I'm usually very much for keeping as much pitching around as possible, but the value they got out of that deal was crazy. 

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I'm usually very much for keeping as much pitching around as possible, but the value they got out of that deal was crazy. 

Hopefully.  Rodriguez isnt ranked anywhere yet.  But a 19yo raking in A+ is not nothing.  Still, I don’t get too worked up over most prospects in A ball.  It wasn’t so long ago Miguel Bleis captivated us all…

[Hitch]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Hopefully.  Rodriguez isnt ranked anywhere yet.  But a 19yo raking in A+ is not nothing.  Still, I don’t get too worked up over most prospects in A ball.  It wasn’t so long ago Miguel Bleis captivated us all…

Yeah, but it wasn't even that part of it really. The extra draft pick and bonus pool money that comes with it was the real get I think. I'm really surprised they got that much. 

[mvp 78]

34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

What was Ryan's spin rate?

High.

 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Hopefully.  Rodriguez isnt ranked anywhere yet.  But a 19yo raking in A+ is not nothing.  Still, I don’t get too worked up over most prospects in A ball.  It wasn’t so long ago Miguel Bleis captivated us all…

SoxProspects have him ranked 17th.

[Nick]

Is it time to trade Grissom now that he's heating up in the minors?

I like Hamilton for his speed as much as anyone else here, but is it enough? 

Essentially we carry 3 bench players. We need Romy because of Casas. Plus he can play other positions. I see Mayer as a backup for Story getting hurt or next year at 3B if Bregman opts out. Then you have Refsnyder. Unless there's another option at 1B Romy stays. Refsnyder is hitting too well. I can't ever see us parting ways with him. That leaves Hamilton who still has 1 option remaining. 

Is Grissom better than Hamilton right now?

 

[Hitch]

2 minutes ago, Nick said:

Is it time to trade Grissom now that he's heating up in the minors?

I like Hamilton for his speed as much as anyone else here, but is it enough? 

Essentially we carry 3 bench players. We need Romy because of Casas. Plus he can play other positions. I see Mayer as a backup for Story getting hurt or next year at 3B if Bregman opts out. Then you have Refsnyder. Unless there's another option at 1B Romy stays. Refsnyder is hitting too well. I can't ever see us parting ways with him. That leaves Hamilton who still has 1 option remaining. 

Is Grissom better than Hamilton right now?

 

What do you think we get for Grissom? Because I would bet very little at the moment. 

And we can't really bring him up to replace Hamilton, as he's a poorer defender at almost every spot. His best bet is getting reps and impressing at 1B. 

[Nick]

4 minutes ago, Hitch said:

What do you think we get for Grissom? Because I would bet very little at the moment. 

And we can't really bring him up to replace Hamilton, as he's a poorer defender at almost every spot. His best bet is getting reps and impressing at 1B. 

Romy can play 2B also in addition to 1B. 

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, jdc69 said:

You don't think, talent wise, we are a playoff caliber team?

We have "played worse" than our record shows, now, is what I meant.

Yes, I think we are a playoff team, on paper, but have played like crap against weaker teams than we have in past years.

I like this team.

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, Nick said:

Romy can play 2B also in addition to 1B. 

When we call up Anthony, Rafaela becomes higher depth than DHam at 2B, SS and 3B. He's also above Romy v RHPs. Romy can play 1B, so I think he stays over DHam. Rafaela can also steal bases, but not like DHam.

If Casas is heating up, Grissom is losing the outside chance he could be called up to play 1B w Romy.

I'm not sure how much raking in AAA improved Grissom's trade value, and there is no hurry to trade a middle infielder, just yet, but the day might ne near.