A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Evidence of what?

I can't think players will not continue what they have donover 3 weeks for the rest of their careers?

I need to show evidence that players go through slumps and hot steaks?

Or do you want evidence that our defense looked better on paper going into 2025? I'm not claiming we are playing better D. We aren't.

Duran was off to a poor start, last April and had a great year. I can't think he might get better without having to prove it based on something I've seen in 3 weeks?

Casas has been horrible. There is no "evidence" based on 2025 to show you why he might get better. I guess you need to show me evidence that proves that all players off to horrific 3 week starts are doomed to continue sucking.

The only evidence I need to show is their record.

[Hugh2]

17 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

... league

(confession: I insisted on Verdugo in the Mookie deal, but also demanded a young pitcher, since LA cornered the world on stockpiling arms)

And there's probably some alternate universe where Verdugo turned into a complete stud.  We are in the wong timeline. 

[Hugh2]

8 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

The only evidence I need to show is their record.

I mean, if the season ended today we are in the playoffs.  Going by record we are in a pretty good spot. 

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I mean, if the season ended today we are in the playoffs.  Going by record we are in a pretty good spot. 

Unfortunately I have to concede Splintered's point on this one.  The Sox record has to be discounted for a relatively soft schedule, including all 7 of our 2025 games against the White Sox.

Which doesn't mean the Sox aren't capable of playing better than they have so far.  

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Unfortunately I have to concede Splintered's point on this one.  The Sox record has to be discounted for a relatively soft schedule, including all 7 of our 2025 games against the White Sox.

Which doesn't mean the Sox aren't capable of playing better than they have so far.  

That's fair, but then aren't we also saying that record isn't the only evidence? if there are other considerations. 

My expectations were for the Sox to be better this year.  That hasn't changed for me yet, but I'm concerned for a few players.  But at the end of the day it's April 22nd.  I'm concerned how these guys are playing on September 22nd. 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

13 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I mean, if the season ended today we are in the playoffs.  Going by record we are in a pretty good spot. 

Again, they have benefitted from a very easy early schedule and are 2-6 vs teams over .500

[Hugh2]

39 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Again, they have benefitted from a very easy early schedule and are 2-6 vs teams over .500

So there is more evidence than just their record then?

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

So there is more evidence than just their record then?

Umm, their record of 2-6?

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

So there is more evidence than just their record then?

And their record despite a very easy early schedule?

[notin]

54 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Unfortunately I have to concede Splintered's point on this one.  The Sox record has to be discounted for a relatively soft schedule, including all 7 of our 2025 games against the White Sox.

Which doesn't mean the Sox aren't capable of playing better than they have so far.  

And 9 of our first 25 games were started by Sean Newcomb, Richard Fitts, and Hunter Dobbins, none of whom were anticipated to be in the opening day rotation…

[notin]

47 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Again, they have benefitted from a very easy early schedule and are 2-6 vs teams over .500

Easy schedules still count.  KC was under .500 against non-White Sox teams last year, but still made the postseason.  Detroit was right there with them…

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

And 9 of our first 25 games were started by Sean Newcomb, Richard Fitts, and Hunter Dobbins, none of whom were anticipated to be in the opening day rotation…

Lack of hitting, and bad D has been the biggest problems.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

And there's probably some alternate universe where Verdugo turned into a complete stud.  We are in the wong timeline. 

For a few months in 2020, Verdugo looked like was going to be a star... at least, at 24 years old, a core member of the Red Sox going forward.

Never would have thought then that he'd be back in the minor at 28.

Posters rag on Benintendi for not becoming a star, but at least he's still in the majors, hitting a laser off a Chapman triple-digit fastball. When he took Dobbins deep last week, our household rejoiced that "Beni homered off Hunter" (the names of our two male dogs).

[Hugh2]

18 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

And their record despite a very easy early schedule?

If we are considering more than JUST their record then I'll throw my hat in the ring and point out it's April 22nd.  Throw whatever asterisk you want, right now they're a playoff team.  They are a .500 team that improved over the offseason and despite some slow starts have a winning record early. 

This team will be fine.  Get on the train, there's plenty of room. 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

14 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

If we are considering more than JUST their record then I'll throw my hat in the ring and point out it's April 22nd.  Throw whatever asterisk you want, right now they're a playoff team.  They are a .500 team that improved over the offseason and despite some slow starts have a winning record early. 

This team will be fine.  Get on the train, there's plenty of room. 

I am considering their record. They have been basically a .500 team against an easy schedule and are well below .500 against the better teams they have faced.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

34 minutes ago, notin said:

Easy schedules still count.  KC was under .500 against non-White Sox teams last year, but still made the postseason.  Detroit was right there with them…

That's great. And I don't know anyone that considered either of them to be top tier teams or true championship contenders.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

38 minutes ago, notin said:

And 9 of our first 25 games were started by Sean Newcomb, Richard Fitts, and Hunter Dobbins, none of whom were anticipated to be in the opening day rotation…

All teams have injuries.

[mvp 78]

38 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Umm, their record of 2-6?

This stat is relatively meaningless, especially early in the season. 

Cardinals are 9-14. If they had swept the Sox, instead of the other way around, you could say the Sox were 2-9 against teams above .500. If BAL swept the Sox, they'd be above .500. If the Sox beat TOR one more time, they would be a below .500 team. 

If the Sox were beating up on all these teams, they opponents would mostly be below .500 and you could say "they haven't played anybody." If the Sox were doing worse than they are now, they'd have an even worse record against teams above .500. It's just a function of the season being only a few weeks long. 

[Nick]

When it comes to Boston Red Sox, there is no such thing as "easy schedule". It's a myth.

Hell we can't even play .500 ball at home.

It's a bottom line game. We are in the playoffs if the season ended today.

We should be getting better as new comers become acclimated to Fenway and others come off the injured li

 

[Hugh2]

11 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

I am considering their record. They have been basically a .500 team against an easy schedule and are well below .500 against the better teams they have faced.

well below......in 8 games. 

[notin]

45 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Lack of hitting, and bad D has been the biggest problems.

And there are a few key contributors there, headlined by Casas and Duran.

Some of the D has been outright bad, but the Sox are 10th in DRS.  OAA agrees with your assessment and ranks them 27th.  Over much larger samples, I expect these rankings to get much closer to each other…

 

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

well below......in 8 games. 

But at this point in the season, that bad record is self-dependent. Had they won 1 more game against Toronto, for example, Toronto would be a .500 team you didn’t count. Had St. Louis beaten them a couple times, St. Louis would be a team you did count.

It’s too early to consider teams over .500 as a metric of anything.  One series vs most teams can push them to either side of that benchmark…

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

And there are a few key contributors there, headlined by Casas and Duran.

Some of the D has been outright bad, but the Sox are 10th in DRS.  OAA agrees with your assessment and ranks them 27th.  Over much larger samples, I expect these rankings to get much closer to each other…

 

Unlike Casas, Duran is still making loud contact and should turn it around with some bad luck regression. I think he heats up when the weather gets a little warmer. He didn't really turn it on until June last year. 

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

But at this point in the season, that bad record is self-dependent. Had they won 1 more game against Toronto, for example, Toronto would be a .500 team you didn’t count. Had St. Louis beaten them a couple times, St. Louis would be a team you did count.

It’s too early to consider teams over .500 as a metric of anything.  One series vs most teams can push them to either side of that benchmark…

Don't be stealing my posts bro. 

[jdc69]

Obviously we have some people playing under their abilities but I'm personally glad the pitching is improving. Yes we've been playing the White Sox, so shouldn't put too much stock into any winning but after all the hand wringing, we are only a game and a half out of first place in our division. 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

This stat is relatively meaningless, especially early in the season. 

Cardinals are 9-14. If they had swept the Sox, instead of the other way around, you could say the Sox were 2-9 against teams above .500. If BAL swept the Sox, they'd be above .500. If the Sox beat TOR one more time, they would be a below .500 team. 

If the Sox were beating up on all these teams, they opponents would mostly be below .500 and you could say "they haven't played anybody." If the Sox were doing worse than they are now, they'd have an even worse record against teams above .500. It's just a function of the season being only a few weeks long. 

If it weren't for the bullet, JFK would have enjoyed a nice afternoon ride in a convertible.

Bottom line is that's what we have to go by until, or if, it changes.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

If it weren't for the bullet, JFK would have enjoyed a nice afternoon ride in a convertible.

Bottom line is that's what we have to go by until, or if, it changes.

Bottom line, it's meaningless this early in the season. They've played 3 in division series and TEX, a team that will probably get to the playoffs. I'm not going to be upset that they are 2nd place in the division and above .500 at this point in the season even though Casas, Duran, Rafaela, Devers and every Catcher hasn't been able to hit a lick. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

45 minutes ago, notin said:

And there are a few key contributors there, headlined by Casas and Duran.

Some of the D has been outright bad, but the Sox are 10th in DRS.  OAA agrees with your assessment and ranks them 27th.  Over much larger samples, I expect these rankings to get much closer to each other…

 

Duran leads all outfielders in CBDC, but it's still now.

(key: Charlie Brown Dropped Catches)

[Nick]

Pitching

I'm assuming Kelly gets sent down when Bello is activated.

Crochet, Buehler, Houck, Bello, Newcomb.............Fitts, Dobbins on the wings.

Do we move Fitts to the bullpen when Giolitto and Crawford return? Or do we stretch him out and keep in AAA? 

I really like Fitts. He could be very valuable in the pen as opposed to AAA.

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Duran leads all outfielders in CBDC, but it's still now.

(key: Charlie Brown Dropped Catches)

I think George Springer is in the lead. He is only 3 for 6 on catches with a difficulty rating of 1 star (95% probability). Duran is 5 for 6.