A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

They traded for Crochet and signed Bregman. The rest of the roster was kind of left up in the air and not in a good way. 

So....their best position player and best pitcher.

[drewski6]

Moon - dont get why you left-turned.

Moon- worst case , even if we dont win division - cant be mad at lack of trying
mvp - they only brought in bregman and crochet
Moon -starts talking about the farm

That last part is where you start losing me. My response to MVP would have been getting Bregman and Crochet is an awful lot of trying

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

So....their best position player and best pitcher.

Breslow gets a lot of credit for adding those two and the two extensions. HOWEVER, he had a middling team to work with that had injured players (Crawford, Gio, Devers) and guys that are clogging up the 40 man roster (Masa, Story, Casas?) that are preventing Breslow from having a clear path to promote long term solutions of Anthony and Mayer. The Catching is terrible. The defense has been terrible. The team strikes out every time I look up from my phone. Just adding 2 good to great players doesn't even make this team a lock for the playoffs! Breslow needed to make other deals this offseason and he was unable to do so. This isn't hindsight is 50/50. Many of us wanted to see trades happen to clear these paths! 

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Moon - dont get why you left-turned.

Moon- worst case , even if we dont win division - cant be mad at lack of trying
mvp - they only brought in bregman and crochet
Moon -starts talking about the farm

That last part is where you start losing me. My response to MVP would have been getting Bregman and Crochet is an awful lot of trying

I never said they "didn't try." I said they "only figured out 3b" and traded for a TOTR starter. All the other problems with the roster from previous years still exist. No RHB. Bad defense. Story health question marks. Masa not fitting on the roster. Casas not performing for a full year. A closer nobody is comfortable with for many reasons.

We assumed that Campbell was going to take over 2B when he made the Opening Day roster and that didn't even happen. It's still a revolving door there! 

Is Rafaela the CFer going forward? Nobody knows!

Is Duran the LFer going forward? Nobody knows!

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Old Red said:

On paper? To me the eye test says this team isn’t even as good as their present 10-10 record. As I said before the last series with the White Sox that even if the Red Sox pull out the brooms, and sweep Chicago out of town it will be nothing more than MEH IMO. Needing more luck to only go 3-4 in one-run games?  All the swings, and misses with the bats, and all those errors they could have used more skills, and fundamentals.🤭

You think this team is worse, "on paper," than the past few years teams?

No doubt, on the field, they have not looked very good. "Better" is a relative term, and I can understand thinking they look worse than 10-10, but it sounds like you are trying to have it both ways. For years, you always claim the record is all that matters. If that is true, then this team is better than '22, '23 and equal to '24, as of now.

[Nick]

AL OPS Rankings by Positions (Qualified except for Catchers, used 37 AB, gave me 14 catchers)

3B .929 (1st out of 8), 5 over .700 (Bregman) We are still 1st if we go by position.

2B .900 (1st out of 12), 3 over .700 (Campbell) We are 8th if we go by position.

RF .959 (2 out of 8), 8 over .700 (Abreu) We are 2nd if we go by position.

SS .767 (5 out of 11), 6 over .700 (Story) We are 6th if we go by position.

DH .684 (5 out of 9), 3 over .700 (Devers) We are 7th if we go by position.

LF .638 (9 out of 11), 7 Over .700 (Duran) We are 10th if we go by position.

CF .520 (5 out of 6), 2 over .700 (Rafaela) We are 12th if we go by position.

1B .509 (12 out of 14), 8 over .700 (Casas) We are 10th if we go by position. Our back up helps.

CC .500 (11 out of 14), 5 over .700 (Narvaez)  We are 14th if we go by position.

19 teams in 2024 had .700+ OPS. 

I don't have the stats in front of me from last year but I believe Bregman, as of now, is off to much faster start. I also just enjoy not having to watch Devers play 3B. 

I understand that Campbell is multi talented, BUT, why not just leave a .900 OPS guy that may win the Rookie of the Year especially if he masters at 2B. We bitched for what a decade about the lack of stability at that position? Why mess it up?

Also take a note that we are ranked 8th, if we go by position. Just make it 1st by keeping Campbell there. Where in the hell are our analytic guys? STUPID.

If we need an outfielder, bring up Anthony. 

I'm from basketball country and we used to say that only person that can stop Jordan in college was his head coach.

Only people that can stop Anthony is Bres and Cora. 

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Moon - dont get why you left-turned.

Moon- worst case , even if we dont win division - cant be mad at lack of trying
mvp - they only brought in bregman and crochet
Moon -starts talking about the farm

That last part is where you start losing me. My response to MVP would have been getting Bregman and Crochet is an awful lot of trying

I wasn't conceding the point that the MLB roster is not improved, just because I mentioned the farm.

I have been talking improvement all winter long.

I have claimed that the team improved or kept even the defense (on paper) at every position.

I have claimed the offense should be better than the .500 team of 2024.

I have claimed this is the deepest rotation depth I have ever seen on a Sox team and that the top 5-6 are damn good. (I mentioned we were the only team in MLB with 6 SP'ers projected with an fWAR or 1.1 or better.)

I've blasted the pen choices, and might end up being wrong about it.

We have a solid everyday player set-up with depth at every position, except Catcher and 1B (if Devers is out of 1B consideration.)

I have not given up on Casas at 1B. MVP mentions he's never played a full season, which is correct, but he did "qualify" in 2023.

Our 2B situation is easily in the best shape since Pedey was healthy, unless you count when Story played a half season there.

Our SS position might be questionable, due to Story's health issues, but the guy who just criticized it, also projected a 4 fWAR for Story in 2025. We also have a national top prospect who plays SS.

Bregman at 3B and Devers at DH are top 5 in MLB.

Our OF is young, controlled and have already shown about enough to justify being optimistic. Duran, Abreu, Rafaela and Anthony/Campbell are way more than fine with me.

There, was that enough of a rebuttal?

I have zero concerns about our everyday situation, except catcher. The now and the future.

[Kimmi]

22 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The man has nothing in Sir Isaac.

I can't really argue with that.

[Nick]

In my mind we had to fix 4 things going into 2025. To me we have done it.

Q1, fix defense and replace power bat while playing 3B. Bregman.

Q2. finally find a 2B going forward. Campbell.

Q3. Bring in another reliever that can close. Chapman.

Q4. Bring in a true ace so that we push down everyone else. I call this the Moon Rule. Get a starter at #1. Crochet.

Catching, we knew Wong had to improve defensively but we thought he'd hit better than an average catcher.

1st Base, I am a big fan, noting we have 4 more years of team control. When he is not hitting, he is slow and looks unathletic. 

LF, I did not think Duran would match last year's production. But I still think he should be one of elite lead off hitters.

CF, if Duran and Casas hit, Sox can carry him offensively because of his stellar defense. Not so much if they are struggling.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

So....their best position player and best pitcher.

Last year, our 2B position looked like this to start teh season:

E Valdez

Reyes

Grissom, DHam

Anyone who thinks this year's 2B situation is not just better, but pretty damn good is being overly critical or pessimistic.

We had the worst defense at 3B in MLB- now we are top 5-10. "Same bad D?" I'll take Devers/Bregman over Devers/Yoshida 24/7/365.

SS is still a question, as always, but I'm glad Mayer is near or at ML readiness. (BTW, Bogey has a .745 OPS w SDP and still is a minus on D.)

I have no worries about the OF. Sure, Rafaela's O is in doubt, but we have Anthony, Refsnyder and Campbell in reserve. Abreu looks more "sure" now, than last April, when one poster complained about him "kicking the ball all over RF." Duran is off to a poor start after 20 games, and apparently, he's now an unknown and a worry.

C : Wong, Narvaez, Grandal

1B: Casas, Romy (Devers?)

2B: Campbell, Mayer, DHam/Romy, Grissom (Bregman)

3B: Bregman, Devers, Mayer/Campbell/Story

SS: Story, Mayer

LF: Duran, Yoshi, Refsnyder (Anthony)

CF: Rafaela (Duran, Anthony)

RF: Abreu, Refsnyder (Rafaela, Anthony)

DH: Devers (Yoshida/Refsnyder/Casas)

This may not look like the best everyday player depth chart, but it's good enough for me. It's young. It's inexpensive, except for Story, Yoshi and Devers. Hardly anyone becomes a FA, soon, except Bregman & Refsnyder.

The future of the pitching is what is at question.

[Kimmi]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We gotta take 3 of 4 vs the CWS.

At least.  Being at home, anything less than that would be heartbreaking.  Then again, the White Sox have 4 wins and 2 of them are against us.  🙄

With winning the last 2 games against the Rays, now is a great time to really get some momentum going.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

At least.  Being at home, anything less than that would be heartbreaking.  Then again, the White Sox have 4 wins and 2 of them are against us.  🙄

With winning the last 2 games against the Rays, now is a great time to really get some momentum going.

It's still too early to think a series is make or break, but this seems to be so, here.

[moonslav59]

No doubt, the roster construction has some serious issues among the everyday player side.

Paying a DH $30M a year is not ideal.

Paying $18M a year to someone else who is basically a DH only player only makes it worse.

Paying $23M a year to a SS who hardly ever plays is a serious issue.

None of this is on Breslow, not that this is what the talk is about, but I do think Brez is making the most out of those 3 cards handed to him.

Bloom never had the guts to move Devers off 3B.

Yoshida would still be the DH, if Bloom was still here.

Story has to given the chance to stay healthy. The question about SS or 2B is out there- maybe 3B, but what else can Brez/Cora do, there?

I'm glad we didn't trade Abreu as many of us suggested. I do wonder if sticking with Rafaela as the FT CF is a good idea, but I'm fine with waiting for Anthony's service time clock to tick.

How can any GM or manager not stick with Duran?

We did have a chance to move Casas, so that is fair game, but let's see who has the last word on his 2025 season.

Campbell at 2B (and some CF) was the right choice, IMO. I'm pretty confident he will do very well. I'm pretty damn high on Anthony & Mayer, too.

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I never said they "didn't try." I said they "only figured out 3b" and traded for a TOTR starter. All the other problems with the roster from previous years still exist. No RHB. Bad defense. Story health question marks. Masa not fitting on the roster. Casas not performing for a full year. A closer nobody is comfortable with for many reasons.

We assumed that Campbell was going to take over 2B when he made the Opening Day roster and that didn't even happen. It's still a revolving door there! 

Is Rafaela the CFer going forward? Nobody knows!

Is Duran the LFer going forward? Nobody knows!

What did you want them to do about Story exactly? Having a respected veteran with a top prospect backing him up is not a terrible spot. But what should Breslow have done at SS? He can't move that contract. Nobody is taking our expensive, injury prone player on.

There's also a fair bit of revisionism going on with Casas. I was one of few who wanted him traded. Most thought he was a potential 30-40 HR guy. To say we haven't sorted 1B is a little off. We tried to trade him, found out the league dosesnt see the same value and we went with the kid with supposed big upside. 

Masa - clearly we couldn't give him away.. 

You're acting like it's a computer game and we should just fix whatever deficiencies we have because we can.

There's things to fix but we've got a couple of bad contracts, players rated higher by our fans than other GMs and fixing everything takes time.

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, Hitch said:

 

There's things to fix but we've got a couple of bad contracts, players rated higher by our fans than other GMs and fixing everything takes time.

I like this statement as a summary of where we are.

I truly believe we are going in the right direction. It took longer than I hoped and expected. Mistakes were clearly made and discussed over and over.

We stayed true to the farm building, all along. The highest prospect traded before the Crochet deal was Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber. We traded for way more prospects than we traded away.

We got a late start on building up the staff, but some of DD's pitchers matured pretty well, and Bloom added a few helpful arms and promising pitching prospects while botching other things along the way. 

He also drafted well, and it was not just higher picks due to losing so much. Anthony was drafted w the ERod comp pick, and Campbell was the comp pick for losing Bogey.

[Larry Cook]

How do we rework the roster to get Anthony in Boston? 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

How do we rework the roster to get Anthony in Boston? 

We can't bring up a 20-year old kid now.

His longball power could ruin the Red Sox batting order for life!

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

We can't bring up a 20-year old kid now.

His longball power could ruin the Red Sox batting order for life!

Apparently the reason Anthony is DHing is because he has a sore shoulder. Boston can not bring him up unless he can play the outfield. 
 

We already have a guy with sore shoulders clogging up the DH spot!!!!  When do we send Devers to get an MRI????  This is embarrassing 

[Hitch]

7 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Apparently the reason Anthony is DHing is because he has a sore shoulder. Boston can not bring him up unless he can play the outfield. 
 

We already have a guy with sore shoulders clogging up the DH spot!!!!  When do we send Devers to get an MRI????  This is embarrassing 

So your position is that Devers, the Red Sox and their medial staff are all lying to us that Devers shoulders are okay? And we keep playing him despite the fact he's hurt?

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

So your position is that Devers, the Red Sox and their medial staff are all lying to us that Devers shoulders are okay? And we keep playing him despite the fact he's hurt?

None of us have any idea what's going on with Devers's shoulders.

But he has a .684 OPS and only 1 home run in 20 games.  Sure doesn't seem like he's fully operational.

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

There, was that enough of a rebuttal?

You don't need lessons on how to argue, that's for sure. 

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

So your position is that Devers, the Red Sox and their medial staff are all lying to us that Devers shoulders are okay? And we keep playing him despite the fact he's hurt?

They did it with Kutter all last season. Raffy's shoulder was so sore that he didn't pick up a bat all offseason. Now he's a shell of himself. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

None of us have any idea what's going on with Devers's shoulders.

But he has a .684 OPS and only 1 home run in 20 games.  Sure doesn't seem like he's fully operational.

Aside from the STL series, it's been a nightmare. 

[drewski6]

18 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I never said they "didn't try." I said they "only figured out 3b" and traded for a TOTR starter. All the other problems with the roster from previous years still exist. No RHB. Bad defense. Story health question marks. Masa not fitting on the roster. Casas not performing for a full year. A closer nobody is comfortable with for many reasons.

We assumed that Campbell was going to take over 2B when he made the Opening Day roster and that didn't even happen. It's still a revolving door there! 

Is Rafaela the CFer going forward? Nobody knows!

Is Duran the LFer going forward? Nobody knows!

I think youve been spending a little too much time palling around with Red. No malice directed at either.

But having things figured out is fluid. Things that were figured out become unfigured out  and things you didnt think could be figured out become figured out.

I embrace the redundancy, the options, the fluidity, the depth. Im less of a quality over quantity guy these days, cuz Ive realized you dont ever really know who is going to break out and who is going to bust out.

I really like this team, and I know things have been frustrating. But if Devers , Casas , Duran and Houck were all playing like they have been but in a world where we didnt go get Bregman, clear a spot for Campbell (kind of, I know thats a reach but they did keep him up) , get Crochet, get the bullpen guys....We'd be a lot worse off.

Im still enthusiastic about this year, and Im enjoying it.  ANd I like the fact that there are still some things that are yet to be figured out. It adds to the intrigue ( for me) .

[Bellhorn04]

30 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I think youve been spending a little too much time palling around with Red. No malice directed at either.

But having things figured out is fluid. Things that were figured out become unfigured out  and things you didnt think could be figured out become figured out.

I embrace the redundancy, the options, the fluidity, the depth. Im less of a quality over quantity guy these days, cuz Ive realized you dont ever really know who is going to break out and who is going to bust out.

I really like this team, and I know things have been frustrating. But if Devers , Casas , Duran and Houck were all playing like they have been but in a world where we didnt go get Bregman, clear a spot for Campbell (kind of, I know thats a reach but they did keep him up) , get Crochet, get the bullpen guys....We'd be a lot worse off.

Im still enthusiastic about this year, and Im enjoying it.  ANd I like the fact that there are still some things that are yet to be figured out. It adds to the intrigue ( for me) .

I think the Red Sox front office has done a great job lowering our expectations.  

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

So your position is that Devers, the Red Sox and their medial staff are all lying to us that Devers shoulders are okay? And we keep playing him despite the fact he's hurt?

My position is Devers swing is not right!!!! To my eyes there is a hitch in the beginning of his swing, that tells me it is a physical thing!!! 
Maybe it becomes easier for him in warm weather, but why not have the MRI and get all the facts first! 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think the Red Sox front office has done a great job lowering our expectations.  

One expectation that the front office may be intentionally deceiving the fanbase about: injuries that severely depleted the swings of Boston's two main power hitters last year are totally healed and no longer an issue.

Any adult who has ever played any sport regularly -- even at a rec league level -- knows that nagging injuries never go away entirely; we just have our good days and our bad weeks. Athletes are still capable of competing at anywhere from 50-75%, but no one is ever 100% again after about age 25 (in the testing era).

Batters who hurt their core like Casas in the very motion that makes them good, or continually traumatize their shoulders in such a violent motion like Devers trying to pull, may never be as good again (it hurts my shoulders just watching Raffy swing and miss).

Pro hitters constantly adjust, and Casas and Devers have shown they can produce by containing their contact to the opposite field. But it appears they're just not interested in too much of that...

[drewski6]

27 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think the Red Sox front office has done a great job lowering our expectations.  

Im not sure Im happy because my expectations have been lowered (but I dont rule it out)

The truth is - they went out and got the 2 players I wanted (Bregman didnt start on the list but he was added to my list after I realized that we werent getting Soto, at the time I also wanted an OF - and Im glad I didnt get that wish)

[harmony]

In the small sample to date, this season the Red Sox have posted an OPS+ 100 (ninth in the league) and an ERA+ of 102 (eighth in AL):

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2025.shtml

[Randy Red Sox]

On 4/14/2025 at 8:25 PM, Duran Is The Man said:

yep. and i was adamant that he not be traded over the winter. too bad it didn't happen. he's utterly useless.

Casas is still young. I wish the Sox would deal Story for a solid C or C prospect and promote Mayer.