A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Hugh2]

9 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Bello in the same boat as houck for the first half of this year. 

I wouldn't put Bello in Houck boat just yet.  This is Bellos spring training, so I don't care so much about the results. 

I mean, obviously you want to see better results, but I won't panic until he's had a few mlb starts and doesn't look as sharp. 

[Bellhorn04]

So in this last series we scored 9 (average 3.00 per game, lousy), gave up 20 (average 6.67 per game, lousy) but won 2 out of 3.

Just another reminder that in baseball the data is derived from the games, but the games aren't derived from the data.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We've only played poorly half the time! 

Hopefully we're not exactly like the 2024 Even Stevens.

The Big Bully White Sox are coming up for 4 games, so now we’ll get to see if they still have the Red Sox number, or if the Red Sox will still be riding high off that 2 game winning streak.

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So in this last series we scored 9 (average 3.00 per game, lousy), gave up 20 (average 6.67 per game, lousy) but won 2 out of 3.

Just another reminder that in baseball the data is derived from the games, but the games aren't derived from the data.

Wilyer is at 1 fWAR already. Steamer projected him for 1.4 fWAR for the whole season with terrible defense. 

The games are always more important. The data can give us some insight and some fun quirks, but it doesn't predict the future anymore than the magic 8 ball that sits on my daughter's desk. 

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The Big Bully White Sox are coming up for 4 games, so now we’ll get to see if they still have the Red Sox number, or if the Red Sox will still be riding high off that 2 game winning streak.

🧹

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

39 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We've only played poorly half the time! 

Hopefully we're not exactly like the 2024 Even Stevens.

Ya, and while a few of those wins were entertaining, it sure seems like more of the losses were exitaining (as in: fans heading for the exits, or leaving the big screen room, or at least changing the channel).

A couple things that have to happen in the next 142 for a postseason stretch drive: 1. quality winning streaks that propel the Sox to a record that's lands between five to nine wins better than break-even 71-71;

2. legitimate recruits at the deadline that will supply both depth and a spark to the rotation and/or bullpen, clubhouse and roster to finally end the most ugly, underrated problem with this franchise since 2021 -- giving up and going through the motions.

Legitimate recruits are players who are good this year, and not used-to-be, or might-be-again next season after rehabbing a current injury.

And if the front office thinks there's really a chance this summer, such acquisitions will require more painful transactions.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We've only played poorly half the time! 

Hopefully we're not exactly like the 2024 Even Stevens.

On paper, I think we look better, while several AL teams who finished ahead of us look worse or the same.

We've played 7 one-run games and are 3-4, so maybe with a little luck, we could have been 11-9 (projected 88 win team) or 12-8 (projected 96 win team.) We are 2-1 in extra inning games.

We have a stretch where we should do better than .500:

4 CWS

3 SEA

3 @ CLE and 3@ TOR

3 MN & 3 TX

3@KC & 3 @ DET

Mid May, the real fun begins: ATL, NYM, BAL, MIL, ATL, LAA then 6 of 6 gms vs NYY.

[Hitch]

Let's hope April's Braves are also May's Braves. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

We have a stretch where we should do better than .500:

How many times have we said this before only to be let down? 

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

On paper, I think we look better, while several AL teams who finished ahead of us look worse or the same.

We've played 7 one-run games and are 3-4, so maybe with a little luck, we could have been 11-9 (projected 88 win team) or 12-8 (projected 96 win team.) We are 2-1 in extra inning games.

We have a stretch where we should do better than .500:

4 CWS

3 SEA

3 @ CLE and 3@ TOR

3 MN & 3 TX

3@KC & 3 @ DET

Mid May, the real fun begins: ATL, NYM, BAL, MIL, ATL, LAA then 6 of 6 gms vs NYY.

On paper? To me the eye test says this team isn’t even as good as their present 10-10 record. As I said before the last series with the White Sox that even if the Red Sox pull out the brooms, and sweep Chicago out of town it will be nothing more than MEH IMO. Needing more luck to only go 3-4 in one-run games?  All the swings, and misses with the bats, and all those errors they could have used more skills, and fundamentals.🤭

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

On paper? To me the eye test says this team isn’t even as good as their present 10-10 record. As I said before the last series with the White Sox that even if the Red Sox pull out the brooms, and sweep Chicago out of town it will be nothing more than MEH IMO. Needing more luck to only go 3-4 in one-run games?  All the swings, and misses with the bats, and all those errors they could have used more skills, and fundamentals.🤭

OTOH pulling themselves off the mat and winning the last 2 against the Rays showed something.

I'll just go with Parcells here: we are exactly what our record says. 

[mvp 78]

I think we have a platoon partner for Carlos Narvaez:

 

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

How many times have we said this before only to be let down? 

Indeed, then we beat the tougher teams.

Same with scrub pitchers vs good ones.

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

How many times have we said this before only to be let down? 

We gotta take 3 of 4 vs the CWS.

[harmony]

The Athletic's poll of baseball executives ranked the Red Sox front office 18th in MLB:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6273808/2025/04/16/mlb-top-10-front-offices-executive-vote/

Subscription required.

Quote

Their lone voter praised them for strong amateur scouting and patience in offseason markets – but admitted to being puzzled about who, specifically, to cite: “Do you give credit to Chaim (Bloom) for the drafts and some of the trades to get them here? Do you give credit to Theo (Epstein) and Chaim and Dave Dombrowski and Breslow? They have all kind of contributed to this monster.”

 

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OTOH pulling themselves off the mat and winning the last 2 against the Rays showed something.

I'll just go with Parcells here: we are exactly what our record says. 

If they can’t win this year that’ll be a very bad sign. The Big Bad A.L. East is the weakest it’s been in years IMO, and probably the whole AL for that matter too. Anything less that a winning-postseason team will be another wasted year.

[moonslav59]

While Theo still has a lingering "presence," I'm not sure I give him any credit or blame for today's executive situation.

In the last 7 years, we've seen Dave D, Bloom & Brez at the helm of personnel decisions, but to varying degrees Kennedy, JH and others have had their hand in financial and other choices made over the years.

The big blunder was Betts, but the Sale extension and other bigger moves and non moves have been troublesome (Story, Yoshi & the Bogey situation to name three.)

The big plus has been the rather rapid improvement of the farm and the more recent years with pitching upgrades.

I like how our roster is set up. We have the everyday positions, seemingly locked up for many years- most at pre-arb and arb costs. Only Devers, Story and Yoshi cost a lot for 2+ years more.

The pitchings is much more unknown, but we have some good young and younger pitching and no long term commitments, except for Crochet, who is pretty young.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Old Red said:

If they can’t win this year that’ll be a very bad sign. The Big Bad A.L. East is the weakest it’s been in years IMO, and probably the whole AL for that matter too. Anything less that a winning-postseason team will be another wasted year.

It will suck, bigtime, but at least I won't blame management for not really trying hard to build a winner.

I know that doesn't ease the pain, but I think we have turned the corner and are now on an upswing. I've been wrong, before, so we'll have to see how "on paper" translates to reality and how the "suspects," as youcall them, pan out.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It will suck, bigtime, but at least I won't blame management for not really trying hard to build a winner.

I know that doesn't ease the pain, but I think we have turned the corner and are now on an upswing. I've been wrong, before, so we'll have to see how "on paper" translates to reality and how the "suspects," as youcall them, pan out.

They traded for Crochet and signed Bregman. The rest of the roster was kind of left up in the air and not in a good way. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They traded for Crochet and signed Bregman. The rest of the roster was kind of left up in the air and not in a good way. 

The homegrown players were a vast improvement over the post Betts roster of 2020.

The farm is leaps and bounds better.

The Houck, Bello & Crawford trio, while not looking so good, right now, has been the best SP'er trio from in the system in a very long time. Guys like Whitlock, Slaten and a few other pen arms are nice, too.

[mvp 78]

29 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The homegrown players were a vast improvement over the post Betts roster of 2020.

The farm is leaps and bounds better.

The Houck, Bello & Crawford trio, while not looking so good, right now, has been the best SP'er trio from in the system in a very long time. Guys like Whitlock, Slaten and a few other pen arms are nice, too.

The farm is better, but they are hoping that things fall into place. 

2B? No plan at the moment? Campbell splits time as a utility guy for some infernal reason.

1B? Casas has never played a full productive season. 

SS? Story has never played a full productive season here. Mayer is available at some point, but he doesn't have a great health record either.

DH? Masa wasn't traded and now sits in AAA. Devers is the DH, but wasn't told he was the DH until he got to ST.

LF? Duran for now? Roman Anthony has played more LF than anywhere else this year.

CF? The starter and Cora favorite is Rafaela, but he is benched for Campbell.

RF? Abreu who gets platooned for Refsnyder who can't play a lick of defense. 

C? Stinks.

The only position they really figured out was 3b. And that guy has an opt out this offseason!!!

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The farm is better, but they are hoping that things fall into place. 

2B? No plan at the moment? Campbell splits time as a utility guy for some infernal reason.

1B? Casas has never played a full productive season. 

SS? Story has never played a full productive season here. Mayer is available at some point, but he doesn't have a great health record either.

DH? Masa wasn't traded and now sits in AAA. Devers is the DH, but wasn't told he was the DH until he got to ST.

LF? Duran for now? Roman Anthony has played more LF than anywhere else this year.

CF? The starter and Cora favorite is Rafaela, but he is benched for Campbell.

RF? Abreu who gets platooned for Refsnyder who can't play a lick of defense. 

C? Stinks.

The only position they really figured out was 3b. And that guy has an opt out this offseason!!!

I would say this sums things up pretty well. A $30M DH, and an $18M Masa just hanging out somewhere. It’s amazing with all the scenarios that so few positions aren’t really set, or locked down, and probably won’t be anytime soon.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

51 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The homegrown players were a vast improvement over the post Betts roster of 2020.

The farm is leaps and bounds better.

The Houck, Bello & Crawford trio, while not looking so good, right now, has been the best SP'er trio from in the system in a very long time. Guys like Whitlock, Slaten and a few other pen arms are nice, too.

Let's also keep in mind that all those last place finishes put the Sox in a position to draft better players the past half decade. 

None of those young prospects are stars in the majors yet -- but Monegro struck out 9 in 4 IP in frozen Hartford last night.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I would say this sums things up pretty well. A $30M DH, and an $18M Masa just hanging out somewhere. It’s amazing with all the scenarios that so few positions aren’t really set, or locked down, and probably won’t be anytime soon.

They still need to figure out Story/Masa if they really want to make room for all of the big 3. If they move on from Casas as well, it clears up even more room and makes the roster more manageable. 

OF Duran/Anthony/Abreu/Rafaela

IF Bregman/Mayer/Campbell/Devers

DH Cheap Platoon/Rotation of above? 

 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Let's also keep in mind that all those last place finishes put the Sox in a position to draft better players the past half decade. 

None of those young prospects are stars in the majors yet -- but Monegro struck out 9 in 4 IP in frozen Hartford last night.

We're told that Yordanny is going to hit his ceiling and get challenged at some point, but we haven't seen it yet. He may end up breezing through AAA at this point.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

They still need to figure out Story/Masa if they really want to make room for all of the big 3. If they move on from Casas as well, it clears up even more room and makes the roster more manageable. 

OF Duran/Anthony/Abreu/Rafaela

IF Bregman/Mayer/Campbell/Devers

DH Cheap Platoon/Rotation of above? 

 

You also have the Bregman situation, and will he, or won’t he.

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You also have the Bregman situation, and will he, or won’t he.

If he opts out, there's a good chance the Sox full court press on him and bring him back if they liked what they saw this year. 

[Old Red]

51 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They still need to figure out Story/Masa if they really want to make room for all of the big 3. If they move on from Casas as well, it clears up even more room and makes the roster more manageable. 

OF Duran/Anthony/Abreu/Rafaela

IF Bregman/Mayer/Campbell/Devers

DH Cheap Platoon/Rotation of above? 

 

I guess a good situation would be if Story had a good healthy year, and then opted out.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I guess a good situation would be if Story had a good healthy year, and then opted out.

Would he get more than 2/50 on the open market? He'll be 33 and probably has 3-4 years left at most. Would he believe he could get 4/70 (i.e. more years at lower AAV)? 

Christian Walker got 3/60 at age 34 last offseason. Teoscar got 3/66 at age 32. 

The FA class doesn't look very promising, so maybe he thinks he can score a deal? IDK.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

The farm is better, but they are hoping that things fall into place. 

2B? No plan at the moment? Campbell splits time as a utility guy for some infernal reason.

1B? Casas has never played a full productive season. 

SS? Story has never played a full productive season here. Mayer is available at some point, but he doesn't have a great health record either.

DH? Masa wasn't traded and now sits in AAA. Devers is the DH, but wasn't told he was the DH until he got to ST.

LF? Duran for now? Roman Anthony has played more LF than anywhere else this year.

CF? The starter and Cora favorite is Rafaela, but he is benched for Campbell.

RF? Abreu who gets platooned for Refsnyder who can't play a lick of defense. 

C? Stinks.

The only position they really figured out was 3b. And that guy has an opt out this offseason!!!

Dated outlook. Nobody cares about "set positions".  Good hitters who are positionally versatile is what you want and its what we got. Sure I second guess some of the decisions like Campbell in OF, but it does not imply that hes not a good major leaguer. And his versatility is an asset.

Team is fun again.