A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

It's still way too early to know much, but sometimes you get a sense of what a team is and will be, by this time or by early to mid May. I'm not getting good vibes from this team, so far. The improvements on paper have largely not shown up on the field or box scores.

We do have 4 of our top 7 SP'ers on the IL, but we knew about a few and planned for it, this time, but still...

The offense has been a big issue, but the defense was supposed to be vastly improved (from worst to middle pack.)

The pen was the scariest, on paper, and they have done okay. 

You'd think playing the CWS would be a great time to "put it all together," but instead we lay an rotten egg.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They called up Sabol due to Wong's injury, but yes, they worry about the offense from Narvaez.

I was rooting for Zavala instead, because at least his throws can reach second base before midnight.

So what if Seby can't hit -- just about no one can anyway -- we need a catcher who can catch the pitch and not the hitter's damn bat.

The dumb thing -- certainly to an ignoramus like myself -- is that Seby bats righty, and so does Narvaez, but Sabol bats lefty -- and OMG, we can't carry an unbalanced catching duo that both whiff righty.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Cora just has to do better with his cliches after crap losses.

Brez sent him a book of quotes from Yale, but this isn't molecular biophysics. 

Though it may be harder to get the molecules moving when it's 20 degrees with the windchill...

Good one.

What more can a manager say? It's what he is doing and saying to the players that may have some effect, and on that front, it's hard to know.

I'm not sure how much Cora had to do with the coaching changes, but he probably was okay with them.

The players need to take ownership and play better. That is a truth. A manager cannot force players to play better. That's not to say they have no influence, but they can only do so much.

It may be close to the time for a line-up or roster shake-up, but Cora seems to be slower on this than many want him to be. Is it out of excessive loyalty, patience or something else? Are Anthony, Mayer, Romy or Grandal the answers?

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I was rooting for Zavala instead, because at least his throws can reach second base before midnight.

So what if Seby can't hit -- just about no one can anyway -- we need a catcher who can catch the pitch and not the hitter's damn bat.

The dumb thing -- certainly to an ignoramus like myself -- is that Seby bats righty, and so does Narvaez, but Sabol bats lefty -- and OMG, we can't carry an unbalanced catching duo that both whiff righty.

I'd rather have Zavala or Grandal than Sabol. I think once Grandal is ready, Sabol gets DFA'd.

[moonslav59]

I think one minimal line-up change Cora could try vs RHPs is putting Abreu up 4th and moving Casas to 6th or 7th. Casas looks totally lost. I know others do, too, but they aren't batting clean-up.

I'd like to see Campbell batting second, but the modern line-up philosophy points to Devers staying there. The modern theory also minimizes the 3 slot, so maybe Bregman should bat 4th (v LHPs) and 5th (v RHPs.)

Maybe I'm grasping at straws, and some studies have shown the line-up construction is not all that impactful, within reason. Adding new players like Anthony, Mayer or Grandal may help, but I'm not sure any of this happens in the next week or two.

How would this look?

vs RHP

L Duran (just have to hope he snaps out of his funk)

L Devers

R Bregman

L Abreu (up 1-2 slots)

R Campbell (up 2 slots)

L Casas (down 2 slots)

R Story (down 2 slots)

R Narvaez (hitting okay, so far)

R Rafaela (The K rate is down but so is the OPS)

vs LHPs

L Duran

R Bregman

R Refsnyder

L Devers

R Campbell

R Story

R Romy 1B

R Narvaez

R Rafaela (or Abreu)

 

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Good one.

What more can a manager say? It's what he is doing and saying to the players that may have some effect, and on that front, it's hard to know.

I'm not sure how much Cora had to do with the coaching changes, but he probably was okay with them.

The players need to take ownership and play better. That is a truth. A manager cannot force players to play better. That's not to say they have no influence, but they can only do so much.

It may be close to the time for a line-up or roster shake-up, but Cora seems to be slower on this than many want him to be. Is it out of excessive loyalty, patience or something else? Are Anthony, Mayer, Romy or Grandal the answers?

Sometimes a new voice in the clubhouse is all a team needs (Morgan Magic). I think Cora’s voice has just rang hollow, and this would be the 4th year in a row now if things don’t turn around. Anyone can say we need to do better. I know to some Cora is still resting on the laurels from 2018. Without a turnaround this year that will not be good enough anymore IMO.

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think one minimal line-up change Cora could try vs RHPs is putting Abreu up 4th and moving Casas to 6th or 7th. Casas looks totally lost. I know others do, too, but they aren't batting clean-up.

I'd like to see Campbell batting second, but the modern line-up philosophy points to Devers staying there. The modern theory also minimizes the 3 slot, so maybe Bregman should bat 4th (v LHPs) and 5th (v RHPs.)

Maybe I'm grasping at straws, and some studies have shown the line-up construction is not all that impactful, within reason. Adding new players like Anthony, Mayer or Grandal may help, but I'm not sure any of this happens in the next week or two.

How would this look?

vs RHP

L Duran (just have to hope he snaps out of his funk)

L Devers

R Bregman

L Abreu (up 1-2 slots)

R Campbell (up 2 slots)

L Casas (down 2 slots)

R Story (down 2 slots)

R Narvaez (hitting okay, so far)

R Rafaela (The K rate is down but so is the OPS)

vs LHPs

L Duran

R Bregman

R Refsnyder

L Devers

R Campbell

R Story

R Romy 1B

R Narvaez

R Rafaela (or Abreu)

 

It’s not going to stop all the K’s, but it can’t hurt anything, so any change at all is worth a shot.

[jdc69]

35 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Cora just has to do better with his cliches after crap losses.

Brez sent him a book of quotes from Yale, but this isn't molecular biophysics. 

Though it may be harder to get the molecules moving when it's 20 degrees with the windchill...

I thought this was some kind of inside joke, about the quote book from Yale. I don't like the sound of that. A good manager shouldn't need that and a GM shouldn't think that about his manager. 

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Sometimes a new voice in the clubhouse is all a team needs (Morgan Magic). I think Cora’s voice has just rang hollow, and this would be the 4th year in a row now if things don’t turn around. Anyone can say we need to do better. I know to some Cora is still resting on the laurels from 2018. Without a turnaround this year that will not be good enough anymore IMO.

Manager shake-ups do seem to work, sometimes. We all remember Morgan magic, although few of us view him as a really good manager. I'm just not si sure the manager is the cause of the silent bats and poor start by our rotation.

Over the last few years, it seems like the lack of spending and poor roster construction was the major beef, but certainly the loyalty to Kike at SS and other questionable Cora choices got a lot of playing time on this site. 

I don't see Cora as the problem, right now, and I'm far from certain a manager change would help (not that you are certain.) I'd rather see a shake up on 26 (promote Anthony or Mayer) or the line-up.

I'm skeptical on Hendriks, Bello or Gio giving us a big boost upon their return, but Newcomb & Criswell have let up 19 runs in 17 IP (12 ERs)

Errors and poor fielding is still killing us, despite some winter moves that looked promising. These guys are vets. It's hard for me to blame Cora for too many errors made by seasoned vets.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

It’s not going to stop all the K’s, but it can’t hurt anything, so any change at all is worth a shot.

I used to laugh at posters who would claim that the manager needs to have a sit down with a player and tell them to "take more pitches" or not "K so much," like it is that simple.

At some point, they players have to make the adjustments. We can be pretty certain, coaches and managers have been working with Rafaela since day one on being more selective at the plate. Nothing seemed to work, and I just can't believe that the answer was in finding the right coach or manager that would have gotten through to him, where others failed. (It's encouraging to see his K:BB ratio improve, this year, but did he get any better?) Posters have often spoke of Devers and his need to change his approach, and I have always questioned that position. Would I like to see him swing less at bad pitches? Of course, but messing with a successful hitters approach is playing with fire.

Sometimes, a roster shake up wakes up those demoted in slots. Is now the time to try it? I'd venture to say yes. My guess is Cora will not, today.

[dgalehouse]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Francona was also considered a player's manager though.  I think it can be a fine line to walk.  But continued sloppy play definitely reflects badly.  To me the big thing right now is that they took steps to improve our defense, but it's still lousy.  Breslow can't be happy about this.   

I think MLB managers are all pretty much " player's managers " these days. That is what teams seem to want. They do not want the more authoritarian type of manager that we used to see. And I think many of a manager's decisions are heavily influenced by input and " suggestions " from the ever-growing analytics departments. To me, results are what matters the most. Cora won it all in 2018, when he had a really great team, but he has not been able to win the division pennant since then. Overall, Alex is a good manager, although maybe not one of the best.  I still expect the Sox to win a very diminished A.L. East this year. And I think it is far too early for fans to be getting all nervous about the poor play and shaky start. The team will improve as the weather improves. Cora's job is absolutely safe, as it should be. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

29 minutes ago, jdc69 said:

I thought this was some kind of inside joke, about the quote book from Yale. I don't like the sound of that. A good manager shouldn't need that and a GM shouldn't think that about his manager. 

Of course I made it up, because the last thing we need is for anyone to try to mimic Breslow speaking to the press (sometimes his replies to questions are so drawn out that I think it's intentional -- in order to distract from not giving a literal answer the team doesn't want made public).

Brez knows the average attention-span is an endangered species these days. Maybe that's the biggest problem for Cora and his coaches when trying to help younger players improve... and also why the org loves Campbell so much: he listened!

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

I think MLB managers are all pretty much " player's managers " these days. That is what teams seem to want. They do not want the more authoritarian type of manager that we used to see. And I think many of a manager's decisions are heavily influenced by input and " suggestions " from the ever-growing analytics departments. To me, results are what matters the most. Cora won it all in 2018, when he had a really great team, but he has not been able to win the division pennant since then. Overall, Alex is a good manager, although maybe not one of the best.  I still expect the Sox to win a very diminished A.L. East this year. And I think it is far too early for fans to be getting all nervous about the poor play and shaky start. The team will improve as the weather improves. Cora's job is absolutely safe, as it should be. 

I think Cora is more likely to be promoted to a higher position with the Sox than fired.

I find it hard to blame  Cora for 2019. 

2020 was all on JH & Co.

2021's spending was absurdly low, and the team came very close to making the WS.

2022-2023 was on JH, Bloom and a weak and shallow roster.

2024 was a better roster, but the Gio injury and lack of major additions made it difficult for Cora to do much.

To me, 2025 is the first legitimate roster Cora has had since 2018. (2019's was good enough, but too many players were injured and underperformed. I guess some can blame Cora for underpermance and the whole resting the rotation in ST'ing, but I don't.)

Could we have done better with the roster we had? It's hard to say. I wouldn't say we underperformed expectations in 2020, 2022, 2023. Maybe 2024. We overperformed in '21.

When I look at some of the pens we had in recent years, I think Cora worked miracles. From 2021-2015, our pen is ranked 16th in fWAR.

IP in pen only w fWAR

146 Wink 1.1

142 Whit 2.7

112 Schreiber 2.0

104 Sawamura 0.2

99 Jansen 2.5

96 Martin 2.4

95 Brasier 0.5, 94 Benrardino 0.7, 94 Barnes 1.4, 78 Kelly -0.4, 70 Weissert 0.7

2021-2025 the Rotation is ranked 14th in fWAR. The IP leaders & fWARs:

560 Pivetta 6.6

376 Houck 7.2

372 Bello 4.8

355 Crawford 4.4

293 Nate 6.8 (missed about 30% of starts)

157 ERod 3.8

151 Sale 3.1

127 Wacha 1.5, 110 Richards 0.5, 109 Whitlock 1.8, 107 Paxton 1.3, 100 Perez 0.6

One could argue getting a 14th ranked pitching staff from these guys is a sign of plus management.

[dgalehouse]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Cora is more likely to be promoted to a higher position with the Sox than fired.

I find it hard to blame  Cora for 2019. 

2020 was all on JH & Co.

2021's spending was absurdly low, and the team came very close to making the WS.

2022-2023 was on JH, Bloom and a weak and shallow roster.

2024 was a better roster, but the Gio injury and lack of major additions made it difficult for Cora to do much.

To me, 2025 is the first legitimate roster Cora has had since 2018. (2019's was good enough, but too many players were injured and underperformed. I guess some can blame Cora for underpermance and the whole resting the rotation in ST'ing, but I don't.)

Could we have done better with the roster we had? It's hard to say. I wouldn't say we underperformed expectations in 2020, 2022, 2023. Maybe 2024. We overperformed in '21.

When I look at some of the pens we had in recent years, I think Cora worked miracles. From 2021-2015, our pen is ranked 16th in fWAR.

IP in pen only w fWAR

146 Wink 1.1

142 Whit 2.7

112 Schreiber 2.0

104 Sawamura 0.2

99 Jansen 2.5

96 Martin 2.4

95 Brasier 0.5, 94 Benrardino 0.7, 94 Barnes 1.4, 78 Kelly -0.4, 70 Weissert 0.7

2021-2025 the Rotation is ranked 14th in fWAR. The IP leaders & fWARs:

560 Pivetta 6.6

376 Houck 7.2

372 Bello 4.8

355 Crawford 4.4

293 Nate 6.8 (missed about 30% of starts)

157 ERod 3.8

151 Sale 3.1

127 Wacha 1.5, 110 Richards 0.5, 109 Whitlock 1.8, 107 Paxton 1.3, 100 Perez 0.6

One could argue getting a 14th ranked pitching staff from these guys is a sign of plus management.

Cora wasn't the manager in 2020. He was suspended and Ron Roenicke took the helm. Roenicke seemed disconnected and/or disinterested and the results were awful. I think this season will be a good test for Cora. The division is very winnable.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

Cora wasn't the manager in 2020. He was suspended and Ron Roenicke took the helm. Roenicke seemed disconnected and/or disinterested and the results were awful. I think this season will be a good test for Cora. The division is very winnable.

Good correction on 2020.

It was still JH & Co's fault.

 

[Duran Is The Man]

12 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Francona was also considered a player's manager though.  I think it can be a fine line to walk.  But continued sloppy play definitely reflects badly.  To me the big thing right now is that they took steps to improve our defense, but it's still lousy.  Breslow can't be happy about this.   

they're at the bottom every year in defense. the players come and go -doesn't matter who they are, they still suck. i blame Cora.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

they're at the bottom every year in defense. the players come and go -doesn't matter who they are- they still suck. i blame Cora.

The thing is defense is supposed to be the easiest to equate on paper to on the field, and yet this team looks worse than last year's team.

Bregman>Devers

Story> committee

Campbell> EValdez, Grissom & Co.

Rafaela FT  in CF> 2024

Duran FT in LF> 2024

Narvaez> McGuire

[Duran Is The Man]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The thing is defense is supposed to be the easiest to equate on paper to on the field, and yet this team looks worse than last year's team.

Bregman>Devers

Story> committee

Campbell> EValdez, Grissom & Co.

Rafaela FT  in CF> 2024

Duran FT in LF> 2024

Narvaez> McGuire

i  know. like i said....the player change but the one constant is Cora. i know he doesn't misplay grounders and flyballs or make errant throws but damn...

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i  know. like i said....the player change but the one constant is Cora. i know he doesn't misplay grounders and flyballs or make errant throws but damn...

Because he is the constant, it must be his fault?

He is actively sabotaging the defense?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

When a team leads the majors in both strikeouts and errors, it stinks. Ks and Es are the two most embarrassing failures on the diamond, immortalized in pop culture from "Casey at the Bat" to Charlie Brown. 

There's no "it's still early" if you can't catch the ball or hit the ball. That's a personnel issue.

It's not like when the temperatures warm up, they'll activate some heat-attracting magnets in glove pockets or bat barrels.

Swing-and-miss haunts the Red Sox in the field and batter's box more than any other team. Maybe by summer, Boston players can develop softer hands on defense and harder hits at bat -- but then opponents will also.

Some want to blame the manager for not motivating his roster. But what can be more motivating than playing to keep a job? The infielders and outfielders know there are guys in Worcester just as good or better than they are, just waiting for the call...

[notin]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think one minimal line-up change Cora could try vs RHPs is putting Abreu up 4th and moving Casas to 6th or 7th. Casas looks totally lost. I know others do, too, but they aren't batting clean-up.

I'd like to see Campbell batting second, but the modern line-up philosophy points to Devers staying there. The modern theory also minimizes the 3 slot, so maybe Bregman should bat 4th (v LHPs) and 5th (v RHPs.)

Maybe I'm grasping at straws, and some studies have shown the line-up construction is not all that impactful, within reason. Adding new players like Anthony, Mayer or Grandal may help, but I'm not sure any of this happens in the next week or two.

How would this look?

vs RHP

L Duran (just have to hope he snaps out of his funk)

L Devers

R Bregman

L Abreu (up 1-2 slots)

R Campbell (up 2 slots)

L Casas (down 2 slots)

R Story (down 2 slots)

R Narvaez (hitting okay, so far)

R Rafaela (The K rate is down but so is the OPS)

vs LHPs

L Duran

R Bregman

R Refsnyder

L Devers

R Campbell

R Story

R Romy 1B

R Narvaez

R Rafaela (or Abreu)

 

Or the Sox could bat Campbell leadoff in from of Devers, Bregman, Abreu, Casas, etc.  and bench/rest/(trade?) the sub-.600 OPS that seems to have forgotten how to field filling that role in the lineup now…

[Bellhorn04]

There has to be something desperately wrong with this team's offensive approach and coaching.

Casas's K/BB by season: 

2022 23/19 

2023  126/70

2024 77/30

2025 16/3

This is a guy whose plate approach was considered his biggest strength when he came up.  Now he's gradually morphing into another Middlebrooks/Dalbec.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

There has to be something desperately wrong with this team's offensive approach and coaching.

Casas's K/BB by season: 

2022 23/19 

2023  126/70

2024 77/30

2025 16/3

This is a guy whose plate approach was considered his biggest strength when he came up.  Now he's gradually morphing into another Middlebrooks/Dalbec.

 

The organization reportedly has at least one big sign posted somewhere -- minors, Florida, Boston? -- that says: "Hit The Ball In The Air"

Now think back to all those years when line drive hitters were all over our lawns. Coaches -- from Little League, high school, college, and pros -- always stressed top-hand dominant swings, to hit down on the ball, because that's what kept heads down and eyes on pitches...

... because batters who instead tried to elevate always got into bad habits like dropping back shoulders, stepping in the bucket, and ultimately taking their eyes off the pitch by yanking their heads too soon to follow the flight of the ball they just got under (or missed).

The modern strikeout epidemic isn't just because pitchers got better.

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The organization reportedly has at least one big sign posted somewhere -- minors, Florida, Boston? -- that says: "Hit The Ball In The Air"

Now think back to all those years when line drive hitters were all over our lawns. Coaches -- from Little League, high school, college, and pros -- always stressed top-hand dominant swings, to hit down on the ball, because that's what kept heads down and eyes on pitches...

... because batters who instead tried to elevate always got into bad habits like dropping back shoulders, stepping in the bucket, and ultimately taking their eyes off the pitch by yanking their heads too soon to follow the flight of the ball they just got under (or missed).

The modern strikeout epidemic isn't just because pitchers got better.

 

 

 

And the Sox only have 11 homers, with the MLB average being 15.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

There has to be something desperately wrong with this team's offensive approach and coaching.

Casas's K/BB by season: 

2022 23/19 

2023  126/70

2024 77/30

2025 16/3

This is a guy whose plate approach was considered his biggest strength when he came up.  Now he's gradually morphing into another Middlebrooks/Dalbec.

 

When I look at these numbers the 16 to 3 ratio is the second thing I notice.

The first is the small sample size.

That being said, I suggested demoting Casas down to 6 or 7 vs R and keep platooning Romy at 1B v L.

[Bellhorn04]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

When I look at these numbers the 16 to 3 ratio is the second thing I notice.

The first is the small sample size.

Obviously this year's sample is still small, but what I notice is the ratio getting worse each year.  

When I bring up the trend in the Sox strikeout numbers, one of the responses has been that it's more about the roster construction than anything to do with 'organizational philosophy'.  But Casas is supposed to be one of the guys with a good patient plate approach.   

Also, if we're constructing a team with a lot of guys with high swish rates, that kind of reflects a philosophy, doesn't it?

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

44 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And the Sox only have 11 homers, with the MLB average being 15.

The Red Sox' stats are irrefutable.

They prove to analytics departments what dumb fans like me watching and coaching amateur baseball have known forever: when you try to hit home runs, you hit less and strike out more.

Even Funky Winkerbean knows that.

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Obviously this year's sample is still small, but what I notice is the ratio getting worse each year.  

When I bring up the trend in the Sox strikeout numbers, one of the responses has been that it's more about the roster construction than anything to do with 'organizational philosophy'.  But Casas is supposed to be one of the guys with a good patient plate approach.   

Also, if we're constructing a team with a lot of guys with high swish rates, that kind of reflects a philosophy, doesn't it?

 

I'm not doubting the trend that the whole league seems to be following.

Is there any team not seeing their K rate go up over the past 2-4 years?

It does worry me. I miss the days of working counts, high OBPs and getting to the opp's pen by the 4th inning.

[Bellhorn04]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not doubting the trend that the whole league seems to be following.

Is there any team not seeing their K rate go up over the past 2-4 years?

What I always look at is the "standings".

2021 Red Sox were #20 in Ks - so better than average.

2022 #17

2023 #18

2024 #3

2025 #1 (Colorado has a higher rate per game)

 

[oldtimer]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The thing is defense is supposed to be the easiest to equate on paper to on the field, and yet this team looks worse than last year's team.

Bregman>Devers

Story> committee

Campbell> EValdez, Grissom & Co.

Rafaela FT  in CF> 2024

Duran FT in LF> 2024

Narvaez> McGuire

At the beginning of the season the Sox were looking for an improved defense and as you point out there were a number of changes which should have made that possible. There were some negatives that were associated with the defensive changes. 

Rafaela hadn't shown he could hit ML pitching. I had recommended they start him in AAA and bring up one of our stud prospects. Who know what would have resulted but clearly what we did hasn't worked to date?

Moving Devers from third should have helped but his hitting is less than stellar at this point. I expect Devers to always be a streaky hitter with natural gifts which overcome his tendency to swing at balls. We are paying a bundle to a guy who is a substandard fielder and a gifted but streaky power hitter. I think we did the right thing to move him to DH. 

Story is a higher paid guy who we hoped would be a superior fielder and could give us a solid bat with some power. It's early in the season, but he too is providing less than we hoped. We doe have Mayer who may  be worth a try.

Losing 3 to the White Sox should mobilize the management to attempt to get better. I hope they  don't wait too long.