A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

My point often is that the money is always crazy, and will only get crazier.  I don't think that will change with or without a LT, I'm sure it certainly won't be moving down. 

I don't really understand where all the new money keeps coming from.  You always have to follow the money, right?  Obviously there are some huge regional cable deals, but MLB just lost its contract with ESPN.  

A lot of it is advertising.  It's all over the parks now and even on the darn uniforms. 

Another big chunk that guys like Rob Manfred and Roger Goodell don't really like to talk about is gambling.  There's a sucker born every minute and a lot of them are into sports.  It's just like collecting tax.  A steady stream of revenue.  Idiot Tax.   

[mvp 78]

 

[mvp 78]

Anyone want to revisit the last few appearances for Robert Stock when he played for BOS? 

*typing Robert Stock Game Log 2020 into baseball reference and my laptop screen turns in to the ark of the covenant from Raiders of the Lost Ark*

[mvp 78]

https://www.mlb.com/news/robert-stock-journey-to-red-sox-spring-training

[moonslav59]

I read somewhere that Crawford may not be ready until the end of May or even June. Maybe he could be added to the 60 Day IL, if we need to add someone to the 40.

I must admit, I would not have guessed Stock's addition to the 40.

[drewski6]

8 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Wilyer Abreu makes $749,500 this season.

I had the pleasure to watch two future Hall of Famers, Dwight Evans and Mookie Betts, play a lot of rightfield for the Red Sox. And I never saw a better throw from RF to 3B than Abreu's last night that nailed Nootbar.

The baserunner was only 20 feet from the bag when Wilyer let it fly... directly on a line into Bregman's glove meeting the sliding Lars...

Vlad, now making half a billion dollars, is a DH.

Your name (and final sentence) leads me to believe that you underrate a good DH, but that aside.

Id rather talk about your first two sentences. Is the transition/segway (not a word?) a message that Abreu is a third future HOF right-fielder?

I stopped at MVP votes. Did I just get one-upped?

[drewski6]

On 4/6/2025 at 2:16 PM, moonslav59 said:

Great post. I started having serious doubts about JH being all in, ever again, but I think he sees a pretty wide open window, right now. We have a healthy mix of kids & vets. We have many key players under control for a long time, and those that are not seem like they can be replaced without a need to spend more money than the cost, now.

The Sp'er depth behind Crochet is about as deep as I have ever seen since I started following the Sox in the early 70's. We may not have the best 3 or 4 or even 5 in the past 50 years, but they look pretty good. I mentioned the lack of spending on SP'ing and notin pointed out the lack of trades for top ones overlapped the low spending. The Crochet trade and extension is the centerpiece of the turnaround, but it is not the whole story.

The Gio signing was the biggest contract handed out to a SP'er by the Sox, since the Sale extension and Nate re-signing in 2019. While he may not turn out to be a plus, it was a significant investment marker.

The Buehler $21M AAV was the biggest since Sale (until Crochet's topped it.)

The trades for Fitts, Priester and Sandlin were further signs of a renewed focus on obtaining young pitchers to make up for the lack of them in our farm system. The Criswell, Fulmer, Slaten, Weissert, I Campbell and other moves shows the desire to deepen the depth of the rotation and pen.

Some of the names on the list I am about to show are longshots, and some will not make it as plus pitchers for the big club. Some may argue having a deep quantity of mediocrity is not a winning strategy, but I will argue that mediocrity in depth is better than crappy depth, and we look pretty good, in terms of quality with out top 6-8 SP'ers and 4-5 RP'ers.

SP: Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Bello, Giolito, Crawford

ML Ready: Fitts, Newcomb, Priester, Criswell, Fulmer, Winckowski, Dobbins, Drohan, Stock

Prospects: Perales, Valera, Sandlin, Early, Tolle, Paez, Clarke, D Reyes, Cason, Wehunt, Monegro, Aita,, Mullins, Delzine, Tygart, Ingrassia

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Hendriks, Wilson

Bernardino, Kelly, Weissert, (SP'ers from above) Guerrero, I Campbell, Penrod

2nd tier: Mata, Moore, Harris, Adanes, Burdi, Adams, de Leon

Prospects: Fajardo, Y Cruz, Hoppe, Olds (SP'ers)

Which of the prospects are  your favorites?

[jad]

50 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't really understand where all the new money keeps coming from.  You always have to follow the money, right?  Obviously there are some huge regional cable deals, but MLB just lost its contract with ESPN.  

A lot of it is advertising.  It's all over the parks now and even on the darn uniforms. 

Another big chunk that guys like Rob Manfred and Roger Goodell don't really like to talk about is gambling.  There's a sucker born every minute and a lot of them are into sports.  It's just like collecting tax.  A steady stream of revenue.  Idiot Tax.   

Yes, but pro sports do not make any money directly from gambling, right?  Gambling only 'increases interest' which in turn generates revenue.  Is there any way to calculate what that is?

 

 

 

[drewski6]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I read somewhere that Crawford may not be ready until the end of May or even June. Maybe he could be added to the 60 Day IL, if we need to add someone to the 40.

I must admit, I would not have guessed Stock's addition to the 40.

Robert may be the only stock going up these last couple days
 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Which of the prospects are  your favorites?

The big 3 are hard to not talk about, first, but I have always been higher on Cespedes than most. I also like Arias and the Garcia brothers.

The pitching is hard to project. I like that we have so many with varying levels of promise and upside, but Early, Valera, D Reyes & Delzine are the ones I am watching the closest, this summer.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Robert may be the only stock going up these last couple days
 

Cardboard and marker companies report gains for sign makers in all the protest rallies. 

I'm not saying Abreu will be a Hall of Famer -- or even a Red Sox at the end of this season -- but that throw last night was Cooperstown quality.

 

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Cardboard and marker companies report gains for sign makers in all the protest rallies. 

I'm not saying Abreu will be a Hall of Famer -- or even a Red Sox at the end of this season -- but that throw last night was Cooperstown quality.

It sure was! He's made a lot of strong throws, before, but that was... WOW!

[Larry Cook]

Criswell demoted to Worcester. He was the man wearing the red security shirt on the original Star Trek landing party!!! 
now stock or newcomb gets to wear it in until bello is ready to return 

[moonslav59]

Newcomb may be ahead of Stock & Fitts.

My guess is Stock or Fitts is demoted for Bello, and the other for Hendriks.

Gio replaces Newcomb, if he gets healthy and Newcomb is not looking great.

Crawford might be out until May>June.

[moonslav59]

Gio pitches for Woo on Tuesday.

[Larry Cook]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Gio pitches for Woo on Tuesday.

The pitch count should be closer to 50 ???

[mvp 78]

8 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

The pitch count should be closer to 50 ???

I think that's about what he pitched last time? 50/3 IP was the first time out goal for him and Bello. At some point, it needs to get cranked up a little higher as there is a deadline for how long they can stay rehabbing in AAA.

[Old Red]

47 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think that's about what he pitched last time? 50/3 IP was the first time out goal for him and Bello. At some point, it needs to get cranked up a little higher as there is a deadline for how long they can stay rehabbing in AAA.

30 days should be more than enough time.

[moonslav59]

Fitts looked pretty shaky, last night. I'm hoping he gets only one more start.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Fitts looked pretty shaky, last night. I'm hoping he gets only one more start.

Are we really counting on Gio to be much better?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

16 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Are we really counting on Gio to be much better?

Hoping. According to his contract, if Giolito is good enough, he gets to leave Boston... but if he's bad, he'll stay.

Breslow has learned a lot since his first offseason as CBO. Now he signs good players to stay.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Hoping. According to his contract, if Giolito is good enough, he gets to leave Boston... but if he's bad, he'll stay.

Breslow has learned a lot since his first offseason as CBO. Now he signs good players to stay.

If he's mediocre, he stays. If he's bad, he's gone. If he's great, he's gone.

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Are we really counting on Gio to be much better?

Kinda sorta. More hope than reason.

It's a small sample size on Fitts (4.50 ERA and 1.333 WHIP w 8Ks and 0BBs in 12 IP.)

Gio's last 2 seasons were very uninspiring and look worse than the Fitts numbers: 4.89/ 1.370, but he's only 30 and had a nice stretch from 2019-2021 (seems so long ago)

3.47 ERA 1.076 WHIP (3.54 FIP)

Who knows if he can come close to those numbers from years ago?

I'm hoping Bello gets the call, and Newcomb pitches well enough to keep Gio out of the rotation.

[Old Red]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Kinda sorta. More hope than reason.

It's a small sample size on Fitts (4.50 ERA and 1.333 WHIP w 8Ks and 0BBs in 12 IP.)

Gio's last 2 seasons were very uninspiring and look worse than the Fitts numbers: 4.89/ 1.370, but he's only 30 and had a nice stretch from 2019-2021 (seems so long ago)

3.47 ERA 1.076 WHIP (3.54 FIP)

Who knows if he can come close to those numbers from years ago?

I'm hoping Bello gets the call, and Newcomb pitches well enough to keep Gio out of the rotation.

I wouldn’t put to much into Fitts outing last night. His control was off, but that was crappy weather to pitch in too.  I know Gio was a good pitcher at one time, but when last seen he was a HR Derby pitcher. Aside from any setbacks Bello should be up maybe after 1 more start . 

[notin]

18 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Your name (and final sentence) leads me to believe that you underrate a good DH, but that aside.

Id rather talk about your first two sentences. Is the transition/segway (not a word?) a message that Abreu is a third future HOF right-fielder?

I stopped at MVP votes. Did I just get one-upped?

MVP votes are unlikely.  Player of the Month for April is probably his ceiling…

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I wouldn’t put to much into Fitts outing last night. His control was off, but that was crappy weather to pitch in too.  I know Gio was a good pitcher at one time, but when last seen he was a HR Derby pitcher. Aside from any setbacks Bello should be up maybe after 1 more start . 

It's not just about last night. I'm just not sure he has the stuff to be anything better than a 4/5 SP'er.

We could use a good 4/5 pitcher, but there are some not-so-good ones, too.

I think he will get another start or two, and even a 3-4 game sample size is not much to work with, but I'd prefer to see Bello, when he is ready. I'm not sure Gio deserves anything, but he will likely get his shot when ready- like it or not.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

MVP votes are unlikely.  Player of the Month for April is probably his ceiling…

People dont usually hit their ceiling their first month of their sophmore season

[drewski6]

19 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't really understand where all the new money keeps coming from.  You always have to follow the money, right?  Obviously there are some huge regional cable deals, but MLB just lost its contract with ESPN.  

A lot of it is advertising.  It's all over the parks now and even on the darn uniforms. 

Another big chunk that guys like Rob Manfred and Roger Goodell don't really like to talk about is gambling.  There's a sucker born every minute and a lot of them are into sports.  It's just like collecting tax.  A steady stream of revenue.  Idiot Tax.   

I made a lot of money betting on Celtics (when they won the championship) and horses*

*I lost every cent betting against LeBron individual over/under (points, rebounds, assists) subsequent season.  

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's not just about last night. I'm just not sure he has the stuff to be anything better than a 4/5 SP'er.

We could use a good 4/5 pitcher, but there are some not-so-good ones, too.

I think he will get another start or two, and even a 3-4 game sample size is not much to work with, but I'd prefer to see Bello, when he is ready. I'm not sure Gio deserves anything, but he will likely get his shot when ready- like it or not.

I agree that Fitts is probably a backend of the rotation pitcher. Gio’s contract will get him his chances if nothing else.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I made a lot of money betting on Celtics (when they won the championship) and horses*

*I lost every cent betting against LeBron individual over/under (points, rebounds, assists) subsequent season.  

I bet a little on football, mostly just point spreads.  I look at it as an entertainment expense because I know over the long run I'm going to lose.  It's basically like flipping coins, but when you win you get 14 dollars and when you lose they get 15 dollars, that kind of thing.  It's a government gambling service - so, like I say, Idiot Tax.