A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

These cycles take approximately 5 years.  In other cities, there might have been a 100% tear-down, but in Boston, there has to be an attempt to remain competitive while building up the farm.  That attempt to remain competitive has to be within the parameters of keeping long-term sustainability the priority.  That usually means no big free agent signings.  If you're lucky, you can get to the playoffs, or even win a WS during that "rebuild" time.

IMO, both Cherington and Bloom were at the point where the team was ready to go for it.  Neither got the chance to see their hard work come to fruition.  I was not a fan of Dombrowski, but I do like Breslow.

The pendulum swung so far from Ben to DD to Bloom.

It's not just money spent, although Ben spent a lot, but major trades and the whole over 30 pitcher theme change.

I thought Bloom got a bad rap for many things that were not really his fault, and consideration should be given to what should have been expected when signing $10M/1 contracts and not much more. However, he did fail to deliver on somethings I think he was signed to do; namely continue finding gems in the rough, like Rays continuously did for the years he was there.  He found a few , like Whitlock, Pivetta, Wacha, Renfroe, Duvall, Abreu and others, but he missed the boat on too many.

As I pointed out, what are the expectations on $10M/1 pitchers, or less? It's not much, but he swung and missed, badly on almost all his biggest contracts:

$140M/6 Story and about $100M/5 on Yoshida, counting the fees. Then, $10M/1 on Kluber & Richards. The Barnes extension. He did well with Jansen, Martin and Wacha. That's not a good rate.

What he did very well was draft and some IFA signings, but he had higher draft picks than Ben & DD had on a consistent basis. To me, that was his number one task, and it looks like he did pretty well, but that is still TBD. Also, not trading guys like Houck, Bello, Crawford, Duran and others might be an overlooked plus.

In general, he gets a speculative A to B+ on farm building, but a solid D on "staying competitive along the way. 2021 was special, but 3 last places has to bring this to a D+, at most. Does that mean he gets a C. overall? That depends on one's perspective and ideas of what the goals should have been, but maybe not what the actually were, behind closed doors.

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, Nick said:

I heard the NESN guy say he needs two days of rest when he pitches 2 IP. So NO.

He pitched 2 innings on 3/27, 3/31 and 4/3. Not every other day.

Yes, I realized my folly. 3 appearances in 7 games might look close to every other day, but 1, 4 and 7 is every 3 days.

[Hitch]

12 hours ago, Kimmi said:

I know most people are not fans of Bloom, but the dislike for him really has me baffled.  Always has baffled me.  Needless to say, I was and am a very big Bloom fan.

Actually, I take that back.  I'm not really baffled by the dislike.  Most fans have a different team building philosophy than I have.  Not that there's anything wrong with that.

I think we have very similar philosophy's on how to build and run a successful club, and I like(d) Bloom, and always subscribe the view that judging anyone has to be over a much larger timeline than the time they were solely hired. 

Bloom got a lot right, but my biggest issue with him as that he was too hesitant and overthought things (I've seen MassLive release articles suggesting the same thing). There were chances to supercharge our rebuild by selling at two deadlines and he couldn't being himself to make the decision and stand by it, instead taking the middle road that got us nowhere. 

If he learns from that, he'll be a successful Exec I've no doubt. 

[Bellhorn04]

I can honestly say I've had enough of talking about Bloom.  The bottom line was back to back 78-84 seasons. 

Breslow is starting to look really good to me.  Following up the Crochet trade with an extension that looks exactly right.  Locking up Campbell for very reasonable money.  Fixing the infield defense.    

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I can honestly say I've had enough of talking about Bloom.  The bottom line was back to back 78-84 seasons. 

Breslow is starting to look really good to me.  Following up the Crochet trade with an extension that looks exactly right.  Locking up Campbell for very reasonable money.  Fixing the infield defense.    

Breslow looks great to me. Good mix of smart analytic's guy with being a player and already lived the life of a player. 

Also, decisive. I don't give a damn on the people we missed out on, I'm just glad we got him. 

[Bellhorn04]

From what I've read Breslow consulted a lot with Theo during the Bregman negotiations.

Nice to know that Theo is in fact involved again.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I can honestly say I've had enough of talking about Bloom.  The bottom line was back to back 78-84 seasons. 

Breslow is starting to look really good to me.  Following up the Crochet trade with an extension that looks exactly right.  Locking up Campbell for very reasonable money.  Fixing the infield defense.    

He got the team to .500 and signed a few extensions after trading for an ACE. The farm system is starting to lean heavily on pitching dev. I have no complaints. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I can honestly say I've had enough of talking about Bloom.  The bottom line was back to back 78-84 seasons.    

To me "the bottom line" involves a lot of context, but he did fail to do better than 78-84 with a budget more than most teams.

[Bellhorn04]

The thing I can't forgive Bloom for was spending a ton of money on 2 DHs, Yoshida and Turner, while only spending $10 million on the rotation.  The fact that Kluber turned out to be totally cooked was the icing on that cake.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The thing I can't forgive Bloom for was spending a ton of money on 2 DHs, Yoshida and Turner, while only spending $10 million on the rotation.  The fact that Kluber turned out to be totally cooked was the icing on that cake.

Indeed, even with some sort of restriction on long term spending on pitchers, he still could have spent more on pitching than everyday players. (Story got even more than Yoshida, but together the Sox will spend over $340M.) The Devers extension was further spending on non pitchers.

His largest pitching contracts were:

$32M/2 Jansen '23 RP

$19M/2 Barnes extension '22 RP

$18M/2 Martin '23 RP

$10M/1 Richards '21

$10M/1 Kluber '23

$10M/2 Paxton '22

$8M/2 Diekman '22 (traded for McGuire) RP

$7M/1 Wacha '22

$6M/1 Perez '20

$5M/1 Perez '21 & Hill '22

Many of the higher paid pitchers were pen arms (top 3.) Bloom spent more on Yoshida than all his SP signings combined. Bloom spent more on Story than his top 10 pitcher signings combined. He spent more on Devers than all his pitching signings and extensions- maybe even arbs, too.

 

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The thing I can't forgive Bloom for was spending a ton of money on 2 DHs, Yoshida and Turner, while only spending $10 million on the rotation.  The fact that Kluber turned out to be totally cooked was the icing on that cake.

On top of this, he focused the farm building on everyday players, too.

[vegasbob]

On 4/2/2025 at 8:11 AM, dgalehouse said:

The first few games of a season are always given more importance than they deserve. The Sox have a good team. I have no doubt that they will get their act together and start winning before too long. 

The value of a win or a loss at the beginning of a season is exactly the same as on September 30. 

The difference between losing or winning now is that the team has many more chances to overcome its deficits ,  leading to the age-old rationalization , "It's early" . 

Yes, the Red Sox as a team  and roster with depth, is much better than the teams of 22/23 and even the .500 boys of '24.

[vegasbob]

When it came to pitching , Bloom knew nothing and acted accordingly.    Breslow starts from a whole different place , and has the luxury of a loaded AAA team to provide depth .  Overall ,  the development of drafted, cost controlled pitching is still lagging.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

The value of a win or a loss at the beginning of a season is exactly the same as on September 30. 

The difference between losing or winning now is that the team has many more chances to overcome its deficits ,  leading to the age-old rationalization , "It's early" . 

Yes, the Red Sox as a team  and roster with depth, is much better than the teams of 22/23 and even the .500 boys of '24.

I mock "it's early" because someone says it every month in baseball, or if something wakes them up at 3 or 4 AM, or even 2 AM if you fell asleep at 7 or 8... but if you get home at 2 AM, it's late.

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

When it came to pitching , Bloom knew nothing and acted accordingly.    Breslow starts from a whole different place , and has the luxury of a loaded AAA team to provide depth .  Overall ,  the development of drafted, cost controlled pitching is still lagging.

Bloom's good pitching acquisitions:

Martin Perez

Jeffrey Springs

Nick Pivetta

Adam Ottavino

Michael Wacha

Rich Hill

John Schreiber

Matt Strahm

Garrett Whitlock

Brennan Bernardino

The problem is that those guys were all spread out over 4 years and most had limited upside on one year deals. He threw enough stuff at the walls that some would stick, but the pitching always kind of lagged. 

Instead of going cheap in '22, they would have been better off going large on Gausman as many people wanted. They ended up going over the CBT anyway. Then don't be el cheapo and give Eflin a larger offer in '23 when Eovaldi comes off the books. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Bloom's good pitching acquisitions:

Martin Perez

Jeffrey Springs

Nick Pivetta

Adam Ottavino

Michael Wacha

Rich Hill

John Schreiber

Matt Strahm

Garrett Whitlock

Brennan Bernardino

The problem is that those guys were all spread out over 4 years and most had limited upside on one year deals. He threw enough stuff at the walls that some would stick, but the pitching always kind of lagged. 

Instead of going cheap in '22, they would have been better off going large on Gausman as many people wanted. They ended up going over the CBT anyway. Then don't be el cheapo and give Eflin a larger offer in '23 when Eovaldi comes off the books. 

Jansen & Martin were "good gets," too.

Wink has been okay. Robles did well after the summer trade, but the next season, not good.

 

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

On top of this, he focused the farm building on everyday players, too.

Exactly! Even to this day , pitching is just starting to be replenished at the lowest levels. 
 

but I will say this, hang’em Chaim has an eye for talented middle infield hitters! 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Exactly! Even to this day , pitching is just starting to be replenished at the lowest levels. 
 

but I will say this, hang’em Chaim has an eye for talented middle infield hitters! 

The only "good" he did with farm pitching was NOT trading Houck, Bello & Crawford.

Adding Whitlock & Wink was nice, too, but in 4 years, geeesh!

[Kimmi]

On 4/3/2025 at 7:20 PM, Old Red said:

It wasn’t really the dislike of Bloom, but the dislike of the change of philosophy.

I get that.  Bloom's philosophy is one that I am fully on board with.

[moonslav59]

Pretty amazing how Devers is the only everyday starter from the 2021 team still on the 26 man roster. Duran and Wong played some, but were not starters.

Houck pitched in 18 games, starting 13, and of course Whitlock had a very nice season in '21. Kutter got in one game.

That's it: 6 players with 3 of them later season players.

[moonslav59]

I'm liking how Narvaez has looked at the plate over a very small and early sample size. I was worried about his decent minor league OBP transfering over to the bigs, but so far, he seems to be working the count, very well. I hope he keeps it up.

In other early numbers, Wong is placed very highly on the fangraphs defense page.

[notin]

On 4/4/2025 at 11:19 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

The thing I can't forgive Bloom for was spending a ton of money on 2 DHs, Yoshida and Turner, while only spending $10 million on the rotation.  The fact that Kluber turned out to be totally cooked was the icing on that cake.

Calling Turner a DH is some mild typecasting.  He played over 50 games in the field for Boston, 31 games in the field for Seattle last year, and already played 4 games at 1b for the Cubs.  He’s a useful role player.

 

to me, what Bloom did right was the one thing everyone called him out for - he didn’t waste high draft picks on pitchers.  Instead he drafted less risky players that could be traded for pitchers, like Yorke, Teel and Montgomery…

[Bellhorn04]

46 minutes ago, notin said:

Calling Turner a DH is some mild typecasting.  He played over 50 games in the field for Boston, 31 games in the field for Seattle last year, and already played 4 games at 1b for the Cubs.  He’s a useful role player.

Since 2/3 of his ABs were at DH in 2023, I don't see it as unfair to refer to him as a DH.  

Yoshida should have been the DH, but Bloom had him miscast as an outfielder.

[Larry Cook]

The 26 man roster might be facing a bit of overcrowding soon. We have starting pitchers that have started rehab assignments. We have talented prospects threatening to force their way onto the roster. 
Bres-slow faces some hard decisions in the near future!! But a couple of things to consider: 
1.) The hole in the roster is at closer!
2.) We lack depth at 1st base and catcher! 
3.) injuries will occur at some point in the season. 
4.) slumps will force us to move people around and change things up!!!!

Bres-slow has to decide who to option to the minor league, who might need to be placed on waivers, who might need to be placed on the DL, and  who can be traded!!  
 

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Since 2/3 of his ABs were at DH in 2023, I don't see it as unfair to refer to him as a DH.  

Yoshida should have been the DH, but Bloom had him miscast as an outfielder.

The mistake was not Turner. We needed corner IF depth, but with the ideA that Yoshida was a LF'er not a DH.

I do agree with your point, although not known at the time. We signed 2 players better suited to DH. (Even then, Devers was better suited for DH, as well- Casas, too.)

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

The mistake was not Turner. We needed corner IF depth, but with the ideA that Yoshida was a LF'er not a DH.

I do agree with your point, although not known at the time. We signed 2 players better suited to DH. (Even then, Devers was better suited for DH, as well- Casas, too.)

Turner was a good addition, but Bell’s point was he wanted to spend on pitching.  I actually didn’t, because free agent pitching is a bust more often than not.  
 

Trades are a better way to get pitching, but I will always question if Bloom had the guts to trade products for pitchers.  Breslow clearly has no issues doing so…

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, notin said:

Turner was a good addition, but Bell’s point was he wanted to spend on pitching.  I actually didn’t, because free agent pitching is a bust more often than not.  
 

Trades are a better way to get pitching, but I will always question if Bloom had the guts to trade products for pitchers.  Breslow clearly has no issues doing so…

He failed with his biggest bat additions, so the risk of failing on signing bigger FA pitchers doesn't really help his case.

Jansen, Martin, Wacha, Whitlock and Wink is about it for pitching- the last two were by trade or Rule 5.

I'm not so sure it was a lack of guts, but it could have been. I think the upper brass did not want him trading any top prospects for anybody. In 4 years, the highest prospect traded was #9 Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber- another DH type, and to boot, just 2 months of control.

I agree, that trading for pitching is the best method, and when all you draft and sign as IFAs are everyday players, then trading some for pitching should have happened more often with Bloom. We agree on that.

It's not like he spent nothing on pitching: he spent more on Jansen than any 2 SP'ers combined. He spent more on Jansen, Martin and the Barnes extension than all his top SP'er signings, combined:

10 Richards, 10 Kluber, 10 Paxton, 7 Wacha, 6 Perez I, 5 Perez II & Hill.

The money spent on bats, not even counting the Devers extension blew the money spent on SP'ers away, and yes, the lack of any major trade for an ace doomed us to last place for too many seasons.

[Bellhorn04]

15 hours ago, notin said:

Turner was a good addition, but Bell’s point was he wanted to spend on pitching.  I actually didn’t, because free agent pitching is a bust more often than not.

My main beef there was about the lopsided allocation of resources.

But the other beef is that I don't think Bloom realized that Yoshida was only suited to be a DH.  That has turned out to be a grievous miscalculation. 

We all have our guesses about why Bloom was let go.  You think it was mostly the deadline indecision/inactivity.  I tend to think the Yoshida signing also played a part in it.    

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's not like he spent nothing on pitching: he spent more on Jansen than any 2 SP'ers combined. He spent more on Jansen, Martin and the Barnes extension than all his top SP'er signings, combined:

10 Richards, 10 Kluber, 10 Paxton, 7 Wacha, 6 Perez I, 5 Perez II & Hill.

The money spent on bats, not even counting the Devers extension blew the money spent on SP'ers away, and yes, the lack of any major trade for an ace doomed us to last place for too many seasons.

It's easy to name the guy in charge when reflecting on moves, but Red Sox Nation also knows that many Assistant Vice Presidents in the front office have outlasted several CBOs. That doesn't mean the Chief doesn't have the final say, but maybe there's less "he" than "they."

As you point out, when it comes to contracts for certain individuals, the Bloom regime did invest more on quality MLB relievers than starting pitchers. And one of the main reasons the Red Sox floundered the past three seasons in 2022-24 is a repetitive pattern of a weak rotation resulting in an overworked bullpen.

Last year, Breslow and Bailey experienced the same thing. But even though they were both good relievers in the recent past, "they" pivoted from overpaying for a Tanner Scott, and instead spent a ton of John Henry's resources to finally land an ace starter in Crochet.

However, even if Crochet wins the Cy Young, Boston could still miss the playoffs if the rest of the starters don't get healthy and the pen burns out again. As much as fans cringe at losing any more top prospects, if the Sox look like legit contenders this summer, will they actually do what it takes at the trade deadline to make the playoffs?

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

However, even if Crochet wins the Cy Young, Boston could still miss the playoffs if the rest of the starters don't get healthy and the pen burns out again. As much as fans cringe at losing any more top prospects, if the Sox look like legit contenders this summer, will they actually do what it takes at the trade deadline to make the playoffs?

If it comes to it I think they will.  I'm feeling pretty Polly on Breslow these days.