A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Old Red]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Salaries coming off the books, next winter (AAV):

$31.7M Bregman, if he opts out.

$21.1M Buehler

$19.3M Giolito, if team option not given

$10.8M Chapman

$5M Hendriks, if team option not given

$2.3M Wilson

$2.1M Refsnyder

So, anywhere from $35M to $90M.

 

To be put back on the books for replacements. Especially the pitching.

[Kimmi]

7 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They offered him a little less than $300 mill, per Zack Scott, and they weren't prepared to go higher.  Competitive offer, sure.  But I can also understand Mookie thinking he could do better than that.

I think they undervalued him as a player, frankly.  They probably didn't believe he could continue to be elite another 5-10 years. 

Mookie had every right to think he could do better, but I can't be angry with the Sox on that one for "letting Mookie get away."  They gave him a competitive offer.  Mookie countered with something ridiculous.

[Kimmi]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think that's it, basically. Weird that they felt Devers could last 10.

They succumbed to the pressure. 

[Old Red]

15 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

They succumbed to the pressure. 

He was The Last Man Standing. As I’ve said before IMO if Raffy would have come up for contract first, and Mookie last most likely Mookie would be here, and Raffy wouldn’t.

[Hitch]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He will likely be known most for trading Betts.

This is likely true. It's always the trade deadlines that come to my mind though.

[Nick]

Braves are 0-6. There's THAT!

[dgalehouse]

1 minute ago, Nick said:

Braves are 0-6. There's THAT!

Somebody in MLB had it in for the Braves. Start the season with a seven game west coast trip. Four with the Padres and three with the Dodgers. To make it worse, Profar is now suspended for P.E.D.s . 

[Larry Cook]

I believe hang’em chaim was hired to get the team under the cap, rebuild the farm system but also remain competitive in Boston !!!!
If hang’em Chaim would have invested some in pitching, he would still be here today 

[moonslav59]

To give you an idea of just how tiny these sample sizes are, Story's OPS just jumped from .321 to .610 with just one swing of the bat.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

I believe hang’em chaim was hired to get the team under the cap, rebuild the farm system but also remain competitive in Boston !!!!
If hang’em Chaim would have invested some in pitching, he would still be here today 

Or, if the ones he did invest in did well. While a few like Wacha did okay, the highest paid SP'er all sucked.

Richards, Kluber, Paxton & Perez.

[Larry Cook]

The bats in the lineup need to continue to come out of deep freeze. 
the bullpen has been unbelievably great this far. Hopefully they continue to excel!!!
the starters are keeping us in the game! 
I think we continue to struggle, but as we get healthy, I think this team start to put together winning streaks! 
Looks like it is going to be frustrating for a few more weeks. Then things get better 

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, Kimmi said:

They succumbed to the pressure. 

I really do believe that.

I know people say they don't  listen, but the grumbling was ground-shaking. They had to feel the vibes.

I also truly believe they saw the rising prospect crop and tried their hardest to con fans into thinking they were trying to "win now," but it was always about the long term. They could not make it a 100% tear-down rebuild, so they had to walk a tight rope for a while (not to well, i might add,) but here we are.

The cycle of going for the now has arrived. It was the longest interval under JH & Co., but I think this is how they plan. Cycles.

2013 may not have been the plan, and maybe it convinced them they could keep winning, even during the "off cycles" with the right GM and coaching, but it's not easy. (2021 bought more time.)

Bloom's #1 job was to rebuild the farm, while trying to give the appearances we were not totally giving up. Had we not done well in 2021. the jig would have been up, earlier than now, IMO.

As much as Bloom gets roasted alive, as did Ben, both provided some strong building blocks for those who followed. DD used them to trade, while Brez seems to have found a healthy mix. We'll see.

[Hitch]

If we can eek out a win later, this will have been a decent start to the season. 3-4 against two very tough teams to open on the road is not too bad, and with the contract extensions as well...

But Houck needs to be in a better place than he's been.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

If we can eek out a win later, this will have been a decent start to the season. 3-4 against two very tough teams to open on the road is not too bad, and with the contract extensions as well...

But Houck needs to be in a better place than he's been.

It will feel very different tomorrow morning if the Sox are 2-5 after a Houck blowout and Raffy going 0-4 again. 

That was the most complete win we've seen from the Sox in a very long time though. 

[notin]

21 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Sly dog. Bloom wore the crushed face at the airport when Bogey signed with SD, then turned around and used the comp pick to nab Kristian Campbell (after selecting four others in front of him).

He was so shocked they were able to take that photograph days in advance!!

 

 

[notin]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

If we can eek out a win later, this will have been a decent start to the season. 3-4 against two very tough teams to open on the road is not too bad, and with the contract extensions as well...

But Houck needs to be in a better place than he's been.

Houck has made one start.  No one cares about spring training numbers. 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Houck has made one start.  No one cares about spring training numbers. 

To me, it's not about Houck's ST numbers but that he's just looked like second half of 2024 Houck. I think a lot of people were hoping for a 1a/1b with Crochet and Houck, but Houck may just be more of a midrotation guy. 

Post ASB  Houck:

4.23 ERA/4.53 FIP, 11 GS, 6.1 k/9, 1.9 k/bb

Pre ASB:

2.54 ERA/2.68 FIP, 19 GS, 8.6 k/9, 4.3 k/bb

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

To me, it's not about Houck's ST numbers but that he's just looked like second half of 2024 Houck. I think a lot of people were hoping for a 1a/1b with Crochet and Houck, but Houck may just be more of a midrotation guy. 

Post ASB  Houck:

4.23 ERA/4.53 FIP, 11 GS, 6.1 k/9, 1.9 k/bb

Pre ASB:

2.54 ERA/2.68 FIP, 19 GS, 8.6 k/9, 4.3 k/bb

Houck had Never thrown anything close to the 179 innings that he ended up throwing last year, and most likely wore down as the innings piled up, so it’s really not surprising of the post ASB numbers from the pre ASB numbers, and yes sometimes that carries on to the next year. 

[Bellhorn04]

16 hours ago, Kimmi said:

They succumbed to the pressure. 

We all blame them for something. 🙂

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Houck had Never thrown anything close to the 179 innings that he ended up throwing last year, and most likely wore down as the innings piled up, so it’s really not surprising of the post ASB numbers from the pre ASB numbers, and yes sometimes that carries on to the next year. 

Disagree. That post ASB ERA/FIP was about what it was the year prior as a fulltime starter. I just think that's the performance we should expect out of him as a starter. 

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We all blame them for something. 🙂

At least they brought back the good ketchup, right? 

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Disagree. That post ASB ERA/FIP was about what it was the year prior as a fulltime starter. I just think that's the performance we should expect out of him as a starter. 

Was the year prior when Houck got hit in the face? I wasn’t thinking Houck was a top of the rotation guy based off of last year, and would want to see him do it again this year, before I went there. We’ll see, but making 9 more starts last year, and throwing 73 more innings was a big increase.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Was the year prior when Houck got hit in the face? I wasn’t thinking Houck was a top of the rotation guy based off of last year, and would want to see him do it again this year, before I went there. We’ll see, but making 9 more starts last year, and throwing 73 more innings was a big increase.

Ok, so you agree that he's a midrotation guy, but still wanted to argue about it. Cool. 

I have no problem with Houck. He had a great run at the start of 2024, but I don't know if we'll see a lengthy stretch like that again from him. 

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Disagree. That post ASB ERA/FIP was about what it was the year prior as a fulltime starter. I just think that's the performance we should expect out of him as a starter. 

I'm not sure we can use Houck's previous numbers as a SP'er as a major factor in projecting what he can and will do going forward. He seems to have much better stuff than some of his numbers showed. He was jerked between the pen and rotation, dealt with multiple injuries and was rather inconsistent as a starter.

In his first 41 GS (up to 2022) he pitched just under 200 IP- not really a telling sample size.

93 ERA-, 4.17 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 3.76 xFIP, 3.99 SIERA, 1.25 WHIP

23-24: 51 GS and 285 IP

87 ERA-, 3.83 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 3.76 xFIP, 3.96 SIERA, 1.23 WHIP

What makes you think 4.23 is more like who he is?

 

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Ok, so you agree that he's a midrotation guy, but still wanted to argue about it. Cool. 

I have no problem with Houck. He had a great run at the start of 2024, but I don't know if we'll see a lengthy stretch like that again from him. 

I don’t think pointing out that any starting pitcher who tails off after the ASB is not really uncommon especially making the leap that Houck made in innings pitched last year is arguing. If someone else had pointed that out you probably wouldn’t have called it arguing , but that’s cool. Cro Man will be under the same watch this year.

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure we can use Houck's previous numbers as a SP'er as a major factor in projecting what he can and will do going forward. He seems to have much better stuff than some of his numbers showed. He was jerked between the pen and rotation, dealt with multiple injuries and was rather inconsistent as a starter.

In his first 41 GS (up to 2022) he pitched just under 200 IP- not really a telling sample size.

93 ERA-, 4.17 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 3.76 xFIP, 3.99 SIERA, 1.25 WHIP

23-24: 51 GS and 285 IP

87 ERA-, 3.83 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 3.76 xFIP, 3.96 SIERA, 1.23 WHIP

What makes you think 4.23 is more like who he is?

 

Good summation. The increase in innings pitched last year was a  big increase, so it’s not surprising Houck tailed off. How he ends up this year may be more telling.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He seems to have much better stuff than some of his numbers showed.

What makes you think 4.23 is more like who he is?

The same thing that makes you think his stuff is better than his numbers. 

He had a fast start to 2025, but everything has dipped back since then. To me, his stuff doesn't look like pre-July 2024. He's not generating k's the way he was. It seems that either the book got out or he got worse. Whatever the reason, he just hasn't been the TOTR guy that a lot of people were projecting. I think he's still a solid pitcher and better than other options they have. 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The same thing that makes you think his stuff is better than his numbers. 

He had a fast start to 2025, but everything has dipped back since then. To me, his stuff doesn't look like pre-July 2024. He's not generating k's the way he was. It seems that either the book got out or he got worse. Whatever the reason, he just hasn't been the TOTR guy that a lot of people were projecting. I think he's still a solid pitcher and better than other options they have. 

But, it didn't "dip back" to his previous level, which was when he was pre-prime and being moved all over the place while dealing with several injuries, over the years.

It dipped below his previous and career numbers as a SP'er.

Career: 3.72 ERA with a .657 OPS Against shows some pretty good stuff- maybe better than mid rotation. Plus, he had awful defense behind him for many years, and now, he is in peak prime years.

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The same thing that makes you think his stuff is better than his numbers. 

He had a fast start to 2025, but everything has dipped back since then. To me, his stuff doesn't look like pre-July 2024. He's not generating k's the way he was. It seems that either the book got out or he got worse. Whatever the reason, he just hasn't been the TOTR guy that a lot of people were projecting. I think he's still a solid pitcher and better than other options they have. 

Fast start to 2025? Pre-July 2024 he had thrown less innings, and the more innings that piled up his stuff wasn’t as good. Maybe it’s nothing more than he worn down as starters do. This year may show more of what he really is.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

It will feel very different tomorrow morning if the Sox are 2-5 after a Houck blowout and Raffy going 0-4 again. 

That was the most complete win we've seen from the Sox in a very long time though. 

prob since pre deadline last year