A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Nick]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

From 8/3 to 8/18, he hit .771, so I'm not sure I'd include those dates that were dragged down by later numbers.

It's really about 25 games to end 2024, while playing hurt and 4 games to start this year. If you want to count ST'ing, fine. He has looked lost. I don't disagree, but I'm not sure batting him 9th is the best idea. Maybe give him a day off and bat him 6th for a while- maybe 7th vs lefties.

Yes, that was stupid on my part. Frustrated.

[Old Red]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Even 25 games is a rather small sample size, but I do share your concern that something is still wrong.

The sample size isn’t really the issue here it’s the results, or lack of results. I fully understand the concern that Raffy is still suffering from shoulder issues that have carried over from last year. Raffy just set  ML League record of futile ineptness striking out 10 times in the first three games of the season, and has 12 K’s in his first 16 AB. He looks slow, lost, and whatever else you want to call it. It’s circumstances, and not the infamous sample size IMO.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Nick said:

Yes, that was stupid on my part. Frustrated.

It is wicked frustrating. One has to think there is something wrong with the shoulder, despite no signs when examined. Maybe it has become a mental issue as he is thinking about the shoulder and holding back. His swings don't look like he's holding back, though.

The guy can hit. I just hope we can see it, soon.

[moonslav59]

Let's not forget, Devers was at a 167 wRC+ on 8/2/24 (6th in MLB. His .992 OPS was 5th best and was on pace for a career high. That was not that long ago, folks.

His previous career highs:

.916 OPS in 2019

140 wRC+ in 2022

I'm not so sure a 29 game sample size should be reason to go drastic on him.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

What mechanics are out of sync, aside from his stance being more extreme? 

I've coached Little League, high school and college, and even 10-year olds understand when we tell them, "You can't hit what you don't see." But guys pull their heads all the time when they overswing trying to pull home runs (they also "step in the bucket" when they pull their whole bodies out of the box).

If you run video on all Raffy's swings from this weekend, and stop at the point where he misses, I'll bet his head is already turned toward first base.

But on his last swing in his last at bat yesterday -- when he hit a foul to the left side -- his head was right down over the plate, with eyes looking in the vicinity of contact. That's hope...

One simple strategy is called Shoulder To Shoulder: batter's stance starts with chin on front shoulder, and he practices keeping it in the same spot during his swing, which should end with chin on back shoulder. It's all designed to keep the head still -- which is always the goal to keep your eyes on the ball.

Maybe his shoulder is too sore or there's just some impingement preventing him from staying contained?

 

[mvp 78]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

From 8/3 to 8/18, he hit .771, so I'm not sure I'd include those dates that were dragged down by later numbers.

It's really about 25 games to end 2024, while playing hurt and 4 games to start this year. If you want to count ST'ing, fine. He has looked lost. I don't disagree, but I'm not sure batting him 9th is the best idea. Maybe give him a day off and bat him 6th for a while- maybe 7th vs lefties.

Maybe he's just friggin' hurt? 

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, Nick said:

Yes, that was stupid on my part. Frustrated.

Honestly, how could you include those first few weeks in August?!?!?! Take this as a warning! 😡

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It is wicked frustrating. One has to think there is something wrong with the shoulder, despite no signs when examined. Maybe it has become a mental issue as he is thinking about the shoulder and holding back. His swings don't look like he's holding back, though.

The guy can hit. I just hope we can see it, soon.

Oh yeah, you believe this, do you? 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

But on his last swing in his last at bat yesterday -- when he hit a foul to the left side -- his head was right down over the plate, with eyes looking in the vicinity of contact. That's hope...

One simple strategy is called Shoulder To Shoulder: batter's stance starts with chin on front shoulder, and he practices keeping it in the same spot during his swing, which should end with chin on back shoulder. It's all designed to keep the head still -- which is always the goal to keep your eyes on the ball.

Maybe his shoulder is too sore or there's just some impingement preventing him from staying contained?

Well, I'm all for a little bit of hope. A lot of $$$ left on that contract. Sox shouldn't be messing around with him. It's up to the coaching staff to help pull him out of this. If they allow him to keep the mega open stance, they should be fired. 

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Let's not forget, Devers was at a 167 wRC+ on 8/2/24 (6th in MLB. His .992 OPS was 5th best and was on pace for a career high. That was not that long ago, folks.

His previous career highs:

.916 OPS in 2019

140 wRC+ in 2022

I'm not so sure a 29 game sample size should be reason to go drastic on him.

No, it's a reason to be worried! He has a history of hitting like a monster. Now he can't hit anything in the zone. Cause for concern!

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Bregman is another SSS alert

xBA 307, xSLG 578, xWOBACON 486, Launch Angle - Sweet Spot % 46.2, exit velo 95.9, hard hit 53.8%

He's looked fine to me.

4-17. BA with RISP? How many RBI, and how many LOB?

[MADSTORK]

78 84

when you cannot develop your own Starting pitching this is what you get

[notin]

27 minutes ago, MADSTORK said:

78 84

when you cannot develop your own Starting pitching this is what you get

The Dodgers have no homegrown starting pitchers.  3 Japanese imports and two former Rays.

 

[vjcsmoke]

.111? wow that's even worse. mlb reference told me his OPS was in the .550's. ok it's updated to .111 now. that's an ice cold slump!

lemme check casas. .180 OPS. OOF. our middle of lineup is DED.

should Abreu bat cleanup for a little bit? he's sitting at a crazy 2.30 OPS!

 

[Maxbialystock]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Oh yeah, you believe this, do you? 

OK, OK.  I admit Devers can hit well and that moonslav has a point.

But I live in the present and right now he's killing us and the team is 1-4.  Other hitters stink too, and the pitching isn't all that sharp.  

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Oh yeah, you believe this, do you? 

Believe what? That he does not look like he is holding back on his swings?

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Maybe he's just friggin' hurt? 

The most likely answer.

Sometimes recovery takes longer than expected, too.

[moonslav59]

Tied for the 6th worst record in MLB. What a bad start!

We can't let this get out of hand.

[Hitch]

Some chat about Devers - 

On Friday, Devers said none of his struggles are about his new role as designated hitter, but having never served as DH on a full-time basis, it would make sense if finding that rhythm and routine while the team is on the field is another part of his slow start.

He admitted he has not talked to David Oritz or J.D. Martinez about how their routines evolved when they transitioned to a full-time DH role.

“I did talk to David a little bit in spring training but not about being a DH,” he said. “I think I’m going to have to take the time to call J.D. and David.”

Devers said his shoulders are healthy now, so an IL trip isn’t likely at this point.

“It’s not the shoulders, it’s not the DH thing, he was very vocal about that a few days ago,” Cora said. “Now it’s a matter of keep working hard. Getting to the point of hitting the ball in front.”

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Devers now has 15 Ks in five games, and passed Joe DiMaggio's 13 out of 622 plate appearances in 1941.

But I'm not here to bash Raffy, because yesterday I witnessed the worst strikeout ever by Ceddanne Rafaela: three pitches, three straight curveballs in the dirt, three windmill swings and misses with his head looking at the 10th floor dorm room of the north building of Boston University's Warren Towers on Commonwealth Avenue. Why would anyone ever throw him anything near his bat again?

Anthony-Duran-Abreu

[mvp 78]

4 hours ago, Hitch said:

“It’s not the shoulders, it’s not the DH thing, he was very vocal about that a few days ago,” Cora said. “Now it’s a matter of keep working hard. Getting to the point of hitting the ball in front.”

Devers is an unreliable narrator in this, Cora too. 

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Devers now has 15 Ks in five games, and passed Joe DiMaggio's 13 out of 622 plate appearances in 1941.

But I'm not here to bash Raffy, because yesterday I witnessed the worst strikeout ever by Ceddanne Rafaela: three pitches, three straight curveballs in the dirt, three windmill swings and misses with his head looking at the 10th floor dorm room of the north building of Boston University's Warren Towers on Commonwealth Avenue. Why would anyone ever throw him anything near his bat again?

Anthony-Duran-Abreu

Rafaela is in midseason form. He's destined for a utility role. 

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Devers is an unreliable narrator in this, Cora too. 

I don't disagree. 

[Hitch]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Rafaela is in midseason form. He's destined for a utility role. 

I disagree, but for the opposite reasons to my dislike of Casas. I want to believe 

[mvp 78]

Devers' last 9 regular season games: 

1-34, 26K, 5 BB

They shut him down last year after he went 1-15 with 11 k's. He's current stretch is worse. There's no way his shoulder is ok. 

[Old Red]

Starting out 1-4 is not good, but the Red Sox started out 7-3 last year, and that didn’t lead to anything good. The team isn’t hitting, but I can’t see it staying that way, nor do I see any changes being made to the lineup, or personnel in general after only 5 games. It could be worse. The Braves are 0-5.

[Bellhorn04]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Devers' last 9 regular season games: 

1-34, 26K, 5 BB

They shut him down last year after he went 1-15 with 11 k's. He's current stretch is worse. There's no way his shoulder is ok. 

Pollys might argue that the difference is the current stretch was preceded by months of rest/rust.  But either way the numbers are staggering.   

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Pollys might argue that the difference is the current stretch was preceded by months of rest/rust.  But either way the numbers are staggering.   

Record setting of futility at that.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1-for-34 with 26 Ks. So that means eight times he made contact.

If any of us stood in the box and with two hands just held a torpedo bat parallel over the center of the plate for 34 at bats, could at least nine pitches ricochet off a sweet spot and stay fair? Could even two land over infielders... or more likely dribble in front of them?

Notice I didn't say anything about running them out, or making Papelbon squeal (that might be difficult, after most of the ricochets bounce off my face).

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Starting out 1-4 is not good, but the Red Sox started out 7-3 last year, and that didn’t lead to anything good. The team isn’t hitting, but I can’t see it staying that way, nor do I see any changes being made to the lineup, or personnel in general after only 5 games. It could be worse. The Braves are 0-5.

Yeah, there really is no need to panic at this point. Every game thread the world is ending, often three times an inning, but on the flip side, in what is expected to be a very close race this year, we can't be giving too big a head-start to others either, even with a very tough opening two series on the road.