A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Cameron Tran]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

What's the market for Bellinger? I can't imagine it's very high.

Player option after this year for 26.25M, only reason he wouldn't take it is if he plays so well he thinks he could get a multi-year deal this offseason. .266/.325/..426 last year with average defense. EV, Hardhit % pretty similar to 2023 when he hit .307 with 26 HR. Short porch in right could boost those numbers (he would've hit 24 hr in yankee stadium last year compared to the 17 he actually hit) and a contender needing some left-handed hitting could be convinced into overpaying for him. 

[Cameron Tran]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Please, no more... 

worked okay with Paxton tbh. We'll see how it goes with Sandoval but yeah i personally don't love that strategy.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Cameron Tran said:

Player option after this year for 26.25M, only reason he wouldn't take it is if he plays so well he thinks he could get a multi-year deal this offseason. .266/.325/..426 last year with average defense. EV, Hardhit % pretty similar to 2023 when he hit .307 with 26 HR. Short porch in right could boost those numbers (he would've hit 24 hr in yankee stadium last year compared to the 17 he actually hit) and a contender needing some left-handed hitting could be convinced into overpaying for him. 

2024's LA-sweet spot% was similar to 2020-2022 when his results were really poor. His hard hit% from 2023 was bottom 10th percentile. I'm not sure how realistic it is for him to put up big numbers going forward. Yankees Stadium3 should help, but it's only for half the year. I'm skeptical.

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, Cameron Tran said:

worked okay with Paxton tbh. We'll see how it goes with Sandoval but yeah i personally don't love that strategy.

The problem with Paxton is that they were unable to deal him when he had value. He never earned the contract they paid him.

[dgalehouse]

As we approach opening day, I think the Sox outlook is brighter than it has been in several years. The team is clearly improved, with a better and deeper roster. Ninety wins and the A.L. East title is definitely possible. And the competition is weakened. The Yankees have been decimated with losses and injuries. The Orioles have failed to spend and are relying too much on their young core. In fact, while the N.L. has several strong teams,   I don't think there is even one really good team in the American League. You always want to get off to a good start and the early schedule is not too daunting. This should be the most satisfying and enjoyable season in a while.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

55 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Please, no more... 

Can't we just pay Paxton for one more year to stay retired?

But if he makes a comeback, promise not to trade him at the deadline if he's good, so he can opt out?

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Can't we just pay Paxton for one more year to stay retired?

But if he makes a comeback, promise not to trade him at the deadline if he's good, so he can opt out?

Maybe even a convoluted player and/or team option for '26? 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Please, no more... 

Remember when we add guys like this....

Lackey almost 1400 IP in his previous 7 seasons.

Price 1300 IP in 6 previous years.

Sale 1016 IP in previous 5 seasons.

Porcello 1073 in his first 6 MLB seasons.

Of course, we signed some guys with much fewer recent workloads, but when id the last time we added a durable pitcher?

(Gio had 524 IP in 3 seasons- NOPE!)

 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Remember when we add guys like this....

Lackey almost 1400 IP in his previous 7 seasons.

Price 1300 IP in 6 previous years.

Sale 1016 IP in previous 5 seasons.

Porcello 1073 in his first 6 MLB seasons.

Of course, we signed some guys with much fewer recent workloads, but when id the last time we added a durable pitcher?

(Gio had 524 IP in 3 seasons- NOPE!)

 

'18-'24 (6.4 seasons) leaders in IP

Nola 1264

Wheeler 1207

Berrios 1201

Others above 1000: Cole, Corbin, Castillo, Gibson, Morton, Gausman, Lynn, Mikolas

How many of these guys would we really want in this rotation today? Half? The only guys that would have been close to max contracts this offseason would be Cole (injured now) and Wheeler. Consistent innings eaters aren't going to be much of a thing anymore with all the injuries.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

'18-'24 (6.4 seasons) leaders in IP

Nola 1264

Wheeler 1207

Berrios 1201

Others above 1000: Cole, Corbin, Castillo, Gibson, Morton, Gausman, Lynn, Mikolas

How many of these guys would we really want in this rotation today? Half? The only guys that would have been close to max contracts this offseason would be Cole (injured now) and Wheeler. Consistent innings eaters aren't going to be much of a thing anymore with all the injuries.

The league has changed, but the guys I listed were not 34, when we got them. We knew they would likely regress, but they were durable and younger than 30.

I'd have taken Cole, Wheeler, Berrios and suggested about 10 trades for Castillo.

I'd have taken Burnes (757 in last 5- 3rd in MLB)

Cease (4th in IP since 2021) Gilbert, Pablo Lopez and fried (12th in IP since '21)

Maybe these guys aren't like those from years past, but they are about as dependable as there is, today. We don't get guys like them. That's my point.

We haven't since the Porcello and Sale trades and the Price signing.

[harmony]

Columnist Eno Sarris at The Athletic makes the bold prediction that the Red Sox will advance to the 2025 World Series:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6191684/2025/03/25/sarris-ten-bold-predictions-2025-mlb-season/

Subscription required.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Columnist Eno Sarris at The Athletic makes the bold prediction that the Red Sox will advance to the 2025 World Series:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6191684/2025/03/25/sarris-ten-bold-predictions-2025-mlb-season/

Subscription required.

Not bold. The AL sucks, this year. SEA might be the second best team in the AL, behind BOS.

That's how bad it is!

[vjcsmoke]

Another day another rumor. This time more Sandy Alcantara talk. According to this article, Bowden thinks the Red Sox would offer a package for the Marlins star pitcher headlined by OF Wilyer Abreu and 3 minor league prospects Perales, Arias, and Valera.

article: Red Sox Predicted To Swap Wilyer Abreu, 3 Others For Marlins Ace Sandy Alcantara

Is the price too steep? If this deal is palatable would it be better to make the trade sooner to get him used to the Red Sox or later when Roman Anthony is likely to be ready to step in?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 hours ago, vjcsmoke said:

Another day another rumor. This time more Sandy Alcantara talk. According to this article, Bowden thinks the Red Sox would offer a package for the Marlins star pitcher headlined by OF Wilyer Abreu and 3 minor league prospects Perales, Arias, and Valera.

article: Red Sox Predicted To Swap Wilyer Abreu, 3 Others For Marlins Ace Sandy Alcantara

Is the price too steep? If this deal is palatable would it be better to make the trade sooner to get him used to the Red Sox or later when Roman Anthony is likely to be ready to step in?

Anthony is ready now. Not saying he'd be an instant star, but with his patience at the plate -- exceptional for a young guy -- it's not outrageous to expect close to an .800 OPS.  Even a .250 batting average with 15 HRs would help the parent club.

He's also the exact player Miami would ask for in a trade for an ace. The suggested package probably wouldn't get it done until Perales shows he's recovered (and good again) from surgery.

[Hugh2]

5 hours ago, vjcsmoke said:

Another day another rumor. This time more Sandy Alcantara talk. According to this article, Bowden thinks the Red Sox would offer a package for the Marlins star pitcher headlined by OF Wilyer Abreu and 3 minor league prospects Perales, Arias, and Valera.

article: Red Sox Predicted To Swap Wilyer Abreu, 3 Others For Marlins Ace Sandy Alcantara

Is the price too steep? If this deal is palatable would it be better to make the trade sooner to get him used to the Red Sox or later when Roman Anthony is likely to be ready to step in?

That's a lot of the pitching depth we've actually managed to start building up.  I'd want to trade out one of those arms for a Mickey Romero

[mvp 78]

5 hours ago, vjcsmoke said:

Another day another rumor. This time more Sandy Alcantara talk. According to this article, Bowden thinks the Red Sox would offer a package for the Marlins star pitcher headlined by OF Wilyer Abreu and 3 minor league prospects Perales, Arias, and Valera.

article: Red Sox Predicted To Swap Wilyer Abreu, 3 Others For Marlins Ace Sandy Alcantara

Is the price too steep? If this deal is palatable would it be better to make the trade sooner to get him used to the Red Sox or later when Roman Anthony is likely to be ready to step in?

Former GM Bowden is generally an idiot. The Sox would have 3 years of control for Alcantara who hasn't thrown an MLB inning since his injury and was babied in ST. It may be a fair trade, but I'd want to swap out either Valera or Arias for someone else. 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

That's a lot of the pitching depth we've actually managed to start building up.  I'd want to trade out one of those arms for a Mickey Romero

Romero instead of Valera is fine for me. Not sure it works for the Marlins though. I'm not concerned with adding Perales to a deal considering his injury and his addition to the 40 man. By the time he's healthy, he will need to be on a MLB roster (a la Bryan Mata). 

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Romero instead of Valera is fine for me. Not sure it works for the Marlins though. I'm not concerned with adding Perales to a deal considering his injury and his addition to the 40 man. By the time he's healthy, he will need to be on a MLB roster (a la Bryan Mata). 

Yeah, I don't like giving up Perales, but the reality is he's the type of prospect you'd have to include in a basket of prospects so it's whatever.  I didn't want to trade Teel, and Montgomery either but that's the price of admission and to be honest, I'm not even thinking about those guys right now. 

[Hugh2]

Add: 

I know you weren't comparing Perales to Mata, but I think Luis has shown us more and given us a lot more hope than Mata ever has. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

Add: 

I know you weren't comparing Perales to Mata, but I think Luis has shown us more and given us a lot more hope than Mata ever has. 

I was just comparing the injury situations and the 40 man timelines insofar that he was on the 40 man last season, won't be healthy until '26 and will no longer have options in '27.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Yeah, I don't like giving up Perales, but the reality is he's the type of prospect you'd have to include in a basket of prospects so it's whatever.  I didn't want to trade Teel, and Montgomery either but that's the price of admission and to be honest, I'm not even thinking about those guys right now. 

The 10 guys I'm worried about giving up right now:

Big Three

Arias

Fitts

Tolle

Early

Valera

Gonzales

Reyes

[moonslav59]

I might do this trade. It's Arias that hurts the most. 

I'm not sure MIA wants Romero & Arias, but maybe sub Bleis for Valera, but then again, not they get 2 OF'ers.

How about Abreu, Bleis, Cespedes, Perales and Mullins or Monegro?

[Larry Cook]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The 10 guys I'm worried about giving up right now:

Big Three

Arias

Fitts

Tolle

Early

Valera

Gonzales

Reyes

I agree 100 percent. Justin Gonzalez could develop into a beast!!!!!  What a swing he has!!!!

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

The 10 guys I'm worried about giving up right now:

Big Three

Arias

Fitts

Tolle

Early

Valera

Gonzales

Reyes

A nice list. I might add the Garcia brothers, but am not sure who moves down.

Perales, Bleis, Cespedes and Dobbins are the top 10 prospects not on the list.

[Larry Cook]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

A nice list. I might add the Garcia brothers, but am not sure who moves down.

Perales, Bleis, Cespedes and Dobbins are the top 10 prospects not on the list.

Dobbins stuff looked better in spring training than last year. Command and control and finishing pitches needs more work. 
 

A little more improvement and I think he can contribute in Boston 

[Bellhorn04]

With Mayer and Anthony waiting in the wings, there's not a lot of room for more position player prospects on the big team in the foreseeable future.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

With Mayer and Anthony waiting in the wings, there's not a lot of room for more position player prospects on the big team in the foreseeable future.

Ref and Bregman are the only two everyday players with less than 3 years of control. Hell, Yoshida is crowded out of a spot on the 26, already. (I think he gets 20 days in rehab after the IL stint, then what?)

I think some trades will be made- maybe this summer (Abreu or Story?)

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

The 10 guys I'm worried about giving up right now:

Big Three

Arias

Fitts

Tolle

Early

Valera

Gonzales

Reyes

Neither Garcia?

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I might do this trade. It's Arias that hurts the most. 

I'm not sure MIA wants Romero & Arias, but maybe sub Bleis for Valera, but then again, not they get 2 OF'ers.

How about Abreu, Bleis, Cespedes, Perales and Mullins or Monegro?

I'm dumping Bleis on anyone who's asking. 

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Neither Garcia?

I really like both of the Garcia Bros and watched a ton of Salem games last spring. I just think they are a bit less valuable than the starting pitching prospects and don't have the ceilings of the hitters I mentioned. Jhostynxon has a decent glove and a good bat, but struggled when he got to AA. Would like to see him bb a little more. Maybe he hits a little better in AA this time around? Johanfran may be a better hitter than his brother, but has a worse body type which may forced him off of catcher at some point. If he's a 1b/DH, he's a far less valuable prospect. If he can stick behind the plate, he could be the next Kyle Teel.