Article: Where Should Rafael Devers Play?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Charlie Daniels reference?  

I had a bad case of the Birmingham blues.

[notin]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The guys who calculate these things calculated that the present value of Bregman's deal is 95 million, not 120 million.  That's 25 million dollars difference.  That's a plain, simple, objective fact that you keep trying to dismiss, basically because "he's rich anyway and  he'll get it eventually".   

And "if he stays healthy" is quite the little qualifier when it comes to a 30+ year old baseball player.

I guess my overriding point is, if Alex Bregman took the Sox offer primarily based on the premise he would make more money in the long run, it was a very questionable premise, possibly even straight-out dumb.  I don't think he's a dumb guy, and I don't think that was what he was thinking.

 

But you ignore that $25mill difference, which exists to adjust the Sox luxury tax position.  And good year or bad, at some point Bregman is going to collect that $25mill.

Of course the larger picture here is the consistent comparison of apples to basketballs.  Sure a deferment lowers Bregman’s 2025 earnings, but are you absolutely positive the Detroit offer had no deferments?  And for the record, “ none that I’ve heard of” is an unacceptable answer, especially since no one really gets into those details until after pen meets paper.  We do know the total value of each deal, and the number of years required to play to earn that money.  Beyond that, what other common ground do we really know?

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, notin said:

But you ignore that $25mill difference, which exists to adjust the Sox luxury tax position.  And good year or bad, at some point Bregman is going to collect that $25mill.

Of course the larger picture here is the consistent comparison of apples to basketballs.  Sure a deferment lowers Bregman’s 2025 earnings, but are you absolutely positive the Detroit offer had no deferments?  And for the record, “ none that I’ve heard of” is an unacceptable answer, especially since no one really gets into those details until after pen meets paper.  We do know the total value of each deal, and the number of years required to play to earn that money.  Beyond that, what other common ground do we really know?

All the stories about the Tigers offer say there was "some deferred money" involved, so you're right about that.

At the least Bregman is now one of the counterarguments when someone says "they always take the most money".

  

[moonslav59]

I could see Bregman signing a very similar deal to the Tigers one, this coming winter, and he’d be making more by doing what he did this winter.

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I could see Bregman signing a very similar deal to the Tigers one, this coming winter, and he’d be making more by doing what he did this winter.

It's possible, but is it probable, and if so why?  He'll be one more year older.  Do you think next offseason teams are going to be spending more?  And again, why?

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

34 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's possible, but is it probable, and if so why?  He'll be one more year older.  Do you think next offseason teams are going to be spending more?  And again, why?

 

To me, it's more likely he'll be a key contributor and leader to an improved Red Sox club that will fall short of his annual trip to the ALCS... but that he's such a diamond dog he'll be a favorite of both fans and teammates, and will want to return to finish business...

... plus, of course, get paid another guaranteed $40 million -- sometime in his life -- not to mention, he and his wife (attending grad school in Cambridge) will fall in love with Boston, and get involved in charities helping underprivileged children abandoned by oligarchs.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's possible, but is it probable, and if so why?  He'll be one more year older.  Do you think next offseason teams are going to be spending more?  And again, why?

Well, with the impending lock-out, I'm not very optimistic he gets the same deal. I just said "He could."

I think he might have a monster year in 2024. That's about the major thing that could make it happen, IMO. I'm not predicting it or saying it is likely..

 

[mvp 78]

On 3/8/2025 at 11:58 AM, notin said:

Define “big season”…

I want 55 homers, 55 doubles, 55 stolen bases, 55 triples, 55 ks, 100 bbs, 100 RBIs, 100 Rs, 100 SFs, 100 IBBs, 55 DP, 55 UZR/150, 55 DRS, 55 OAA, 55 FRV and 155 fWAR. 

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I want 55 homers, 55 doubles, 55 stolen bases, 55 triples, 55 ks, 100 bbs, 100 RBIs, 100 Rs, 100 SFs, 100 IBBs, 55 DP, 55 UZR/150, 55 DRS, 55 OAA, 55 FRV and 155 fWAR. 

If you go with 55, then why not 110?

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I want 55 homers, 55 doubles, 55 stolen bases, 55 triples, 55 ks, 100 bbs, 100 RBIs, 100 Rs, 100 SFs, 100 IBBs, 55 DP, 55 UZR/150, 55 DRS, 55 OAA, 55 FRV and 155 fWAR. 

55 homers and only 100 RBI?  So you think he opts out after posting those s***** RISP numbers?

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

55 homers and only 100 RBI?  So you think he opts out after posting those s***** RISP numbers?

We'd be hearing the 2024 O'Neill talk, all year long. Even just 110 might be talked about.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

With Cole out for the year, it would seem to diminish Devers' production...

... that is, with Raffy actually playing this season in the majors.

Opening Day is about two weeks away. If he doesn't see action soon, the answer to the thread question will either be: 1). in Florida, for extended prep; or 2). in Worcester, for live rehab ABs

The lack of urgency about a supposed contender's missing top hitter all preseason is a mystery. No offseason surgery, no concern among teammates, no skepticism among reporters... is this just Raffy being Manny?

[moonslav59]

What would "urgency" look like?

How about signing a former GG winning 3Bman to a $40M deal?

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

With Cole out for the year, it would seem to diminish Devers' production...

... that is, with Raffy actually playing this season in the majors.

Opening Day is about two weeks away. If he doesn't see action soon, the answer to the thread question will either be: 1). in Florida, for extended prep; or 2). in Worcester, for live rehab ABs

The lack of urgency about a supposed contender's missing top hitter all preseason is a mystery. No offseason surgery, no concern among teammates, no skepticism among reporters... is this just Raffy being Manny?

Raffy has been in camp for a long while, even before many pitchers. I think his shoulder just isn't ready and they want him close to 100% before they ramp him up. 

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Raffy has been in camp for a long while, even before many pitchers. I think his shoulder just isn't ready and they want him close to 100% before they ramp him up. 

I think it has been Raffy holding himself back more than the Red Sox. Raffy supposedly went to Cora last week, and said he needed more work in the cage, and more live BP.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

What would "urgency" look like?

It would look like a batting order without the one guy on the roster who has averaged over 30 home runs and 100 RBIs per season for his career.

[drewski6]

Lack of "urgency" (prob "concern" more accurate to my point, which is:) this lack of urgency/concern might be disingenuous. Very possible some are crapping their pants at Raf turning into a question mark.

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It would look like a batting order without the one guy on the roster who has averaged over 30 home runs and 100 RBIs per season for his career.

So, we need to find and obtain one, now? That would show urgency?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

So, we need to find and obtain one, now? That would show urgency?

Who said anything about that? My post was just in dismay that nobody seems concerned that our best batter hasn't even had a single at bat in a game yet.

The Sox have plenty of options in house already. But in a year their president said they're shooting for a championship, some don't think they'll put the best possible line-up on the field because of contract control for players who may not even be in the organization a half a decade from now.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Who said anything about that? My post was just in dismay that nobody seems concerned that our best batter hasn't even had a single at bat in a game yet.

The Sox have plenty of options in house already. But in a year their president said they're shooting for a championship, some don't think they'll put the best possible line-up on the field because of contract control for players who may not even be in the organization a half a decade from now.

Okay. I took the word "urgency" to mean something needs to be done beyond the lack of visible fretting and talking about concerns.

[Old Red]

Raffy now pushed back this weekend to make his first appearance of the spring. Still taking live BP, and hitting off a machine though. Very Interesting.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Okay. I took the word "urgency" to mean something needs to be done beyond the lack of visible fretting and talking about concerns.

No prob -- this may not be an issue now, but I guarantee whenever Devers does come back, reporters will be bothering him with questions about whether he stayed away because his feelings were hurt, and even if his translator assures everyone it was just physical, the very next questions will be if Raffy -- after missing all that gametime readiness on defense -- is now ready to accept DHing. 

For all we know, he may be working out away from reporters just so he doesn't have to deal with them. It would be good to get it over with before the games count though...

(this is where we need management to step up and say they are so committed to taking care of Raffy that they insisted on keeping him away from the dugout stomach bug)

[moonslav59]

This whole thing does seem to make the transition to DH an easier call, but let's see how time works on that choice.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Lack of "urgency" (prob "concern" more accurate to my point, which is:) this lack of urgency/concern might be disingenuous. Very possible some are crapping their pants at Raf turning into a question mark.

I think it's possible his health is in fact a question mark.  They shut him down in September and he's still not 100%.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

This whole thing does seem to make the transition to DH an easier call, but let's see how time works on that choice.

Hopefully it's not a transition to IL.

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think it's possible his health is in fact a question mark.  They shut him down in September and he's still not 100%.

Raffy is facing Crochet, and Buehler in simulated games on Wed, and Thursday, so his shoulders are good enough for that.

[moonslav59]

Assuming Devers plays his whole career with the Sox, where does he end up on the alltime Sox HR leader board after 2025 and after his career ends?

521 Williams

483 Ortiz

452 Yaz

382 Rice

379 Evans

274 Manny

230 Mo

223 Doer

222 Foxx

210 Rico

200 Devers

I'll say he ends up 7th after 2025, behind Manny and somewhere around 460 and 3rd on the list.

[Hugh2]

This is also the time of year where everything is amplified in the media and teams are overcautious.  

It's kind of hard to tell at first glance if an injury is bad and concern is warranted or a team is just being cautious.  

I'd bet there are many times a guy walks into camp feeling a little off, a little sore, where they might play during the regular season but because it's spring training they're just shut down. 

It's very telling that he's taking BP and plans to play this Saturday, it might just be caution and nothing else.  If he ends up not playing this weekend.....I'd start to be a little bit more concerned.