Article: A (Disconcertingly Long) Red Sox Injury Update

[FredLynn]

5 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Argue with the stat heads, not me.

I wouldn't presume to argue with you. That would be a waste of time, wouldn't it.

[FredLynn]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Incredible, isn't he.

Maybe he thinks that baseball metrics are like algebraic formulas. I think that as long as they are within about 5%, maybe a little more, that has to be considered the reasonably accurate.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

10 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Maybe he thinks that baseball metrics are like algebraic formulas. I think that as long as they are within about 5%, maybe a little more, that has to be considered the reasonably accurate.

Who's to say that he wasn't 5% worse then?

[mvp 78]

Crawford pitched very well in '23, but struggled at times last season. If he was indeed injured for 90% of it, maybe his true self is more like '23? Hard to really say. If his ceiling is '23, then there is at least a well above average pitcher than the Sox can try to pull out that arm. 

 

[Jasonbay44]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

He'd be more valuable if he could limit those HRs. As a back end SP he's OK. There are many SP on the roster this year who rank ahead of him, fortunately.

He definitely has things he can work on, but I’m sure a lot of teams would take him as a 5th starter. He probably has at least some trade value, or at the very least is a good depth piece to have with the injury histories of some of our starters 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

So, like I said, his was below average last year.

ERA-, it's better to be lower.

Last I checked 101 is lower than 102- not below average.

[dgalehouse]

I will repeat my post. Kutter is a career 18-31, with a 4.56 ERA.  If you don't like those basic stats, you can sort through the hundreds of available metrics and find some that make him look good. Fine. He " eats innings" , but he gave up more  home runs and lost more games than any pitcher in MLB last year. At present, he is not able to eat any innings. 

[mvp 78]

2nd most Innings in the AL East

15 QS (same as Jack Flaherty, Manaea, Keller; only 27 pitchers had more)

175 K's (tied with Luis Castillo 24th)

3.43 K/BB (27th between Webb and Rodon)

1.12 WHIP (18th tied with Bibee)

If he cuts down on the HR's, he'll be fine. It's not rocket science. 

[FredLynn]

3 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Who's to say that he wasn't 5% worse then?

He could be. Or 5% better . The point is those metrics aren’t THE absolute number. Best to look at them as an approximation.

[Old Red]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

2nd most Innings in the AL East

15 QS (same as Jack Flaherty, Manaea, Keller; only 27 pitchers had more)

175 K's (tied with Luis Castillo 24th)

3.43 K/BB (27th between Webb and Rodon)

1.12 WHIP (18th tied with Bibee)

If he cuts down on the HR's, he'll be fine. It's not rocket science. 

Maybe Gio can give him some pointers on cutting down on giving up so many HR’s.

[moonslav59]

We've been told to stop fussin'.

[FredLynn]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We've been told to stop fussin'.

Darn those fussin police!

[moonslav59]

Fussin's what makes the world go 'round.

(I'm gonna write a song titled that.)

[dgalehouse]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We've been told to stop fussin'.

   Typical stuff from you. 

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

   Typical stuff from you. 

Likewise.

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, Jasonbay44 said:

He definitely has things he can work on, but I’m sure a lot of teams would take him as a 5th starter. He probably has at least some trade value, or at the very least is a good depth piece to have with the injury histories of some of our starters 

I'm not fussin' and certainly not gushing, but no MLB team has a 6th starter with a 1.3 projected fWAR.

Only these teams have a 5th starter better than 1.3 projected:

(I think before injury issues)

lAD: Ohtani 2.0

PHI: Luzardo 2.0 

SEA: Woo 1.8

NYY: Schmidt 1.7

TEX: Mahle 1.6

CIN: Abbott 1.6

AZ: Kelly 1.5

TOR: Francis 1.5

(HOU's Arrighetti & MIL's T Myers tied at 1.3)

About 1/3 of MLB has a better or equal 5th SP to Crawford- our 6th SP'er... according to STEAMERS.

[Hugh2]

Chris Sale had an ERA- of 57 last year....he must be like, really awful. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not fussin' and certainly not gushing, but no MLB team has a 6th starter with a 1.3 projected fWAR.

Only these teams have a 5th starter better than 1.3 projected:

(I think before injury issues)

lAD: Ohtani 2.0

PHI: Luzardo 2.0 

SEA: Woo 1.8

NYY: Schmidt 1.7

TEX: Mahle 1.6

CIN: Abbott 1.6

AZ: Kelly 1.5

TOR: Francis 1.5

(HOU's Arrighetti & MIL's T Myers tied at 1.3)

About 1/3 of MLB has a better or equal 5th SP to Crawford- our 6th SP'er... according to STEAMERS.

Why do they think Woo, age 25, will be worse (he had 2.4 bWAR last year)?

Does anyone realize how good Bowden Francis was in the second half of last season, when he made 10 starts and had a 1.80 ERA with a .140 BA and 0.600 WHIP? In three games vs. Boston, his WHIP was 0.385.

If Scherzer can make 20 healthy starts, Toronto's rotation can hang with the Sox. But the Jays' have a huge ish because Vlad's a lame duck, and they may have to take pennies on the dollar in trade -- because who is going to give up legit prospects for a player they know they can't sign? 

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, Old Red said:

Maybe Gio can give him some pointers on cutting down on giving up so many HR’s.

He was better in '23 in HR/9, so there's hope that '24 was an aberration due to the knee injury. 

[mvp 78]

51 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Why do they think Woo, age 25, will be worse (he had 2.4 bWAR last year)?

Does anyone realize how good Bowden Francis was in the second half of last season, when he made 10 starts and had a 1.80 ERA with a .140 BA and 0.600 WHIP? In three games vs. Boston, his WHIP was 0.385.

If Scherzer can make 20 healthy starts, Toronto's rotation can hang with the Sox. But the Jays' have a huge ish because Vlad's a lame duck, and they may have to take pennies on the dollar in trade -- because who is going to give up legit prospects for a player they know they can't sign? 

Jays are perennial underperformers. I can't be bothered with worrying about them.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Jays are perennial underperformers. I can't be bothered with worrying about them.

But they took last place away from us... after all these tears.

[drewski6]

20 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

2nd most Innings in the AL East

15 QS (same as Jack Flaherty, Manaea, Keller; only 27 pitchers had more)

175 K's (tied with Luis Castillo 24th)

3.43 K/BB (27th between Webb and Rodon)

1.12 WHIP (18th tied with Bibee)

If he cuts down on the HR's, he'll be fine. It's not rocket science. 

Not to take away from this post, but that didnt seem hard to make the counter point.

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Not to take away from this post, but that didnt seem hard to make the counter point.

It's easy to be really down on him because he gave up the most HR's in memory. However, he still was ok for the most part. He had a really rough stretch in the middle, but we've seen much worse out of our starters in recent memory. I think we forget that across MLB the "average starter" has more in common with Kutter Crawford than we give him credit for. The one thing that he was able to do was post, to use Cora's terminology. For better or worse, he was banged up and still managed to pitch 33 games to lead MLB. At times in '23 and early on in '24, he looked like he could be a reliable mid rotation guy. I don't know if we have enough information to definitively say that he has no shot of ever getting there. 

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's easy to be really down on him because he gave up the most HR's in memory. However, he still was ok for the most part. He had a really rough stretch in the middle, but we've seen much worse out of our starters in recent memory. I think we forget that across MLB the "average starter" has more in common with Kutter Crawford than we give him credit for. The one thing that he was able to do was post, to use Cora's terminology. For better or worse, he was banged up and still managed to pitch 33 games to lead MLB. At times in '23 and early on in '24, he looked like he could be a reliable mid rotation guy. I don't know if we have enough information to definitively say that he has no shot of ever getting there. 

I think hes a solid #4 when healthy and I think its a loss.  Not an insurmountable loss, but how many starters do we use in a given year? 10? It hurts the depth.