Article: A (Disconcertingly Long) Red Sox Injury Update

[Davy Andrews]

With two games in the books, the list of Red Sox with injury concerns is not exactly short. Let's break down where everyone stands.

With two games in the books, spring training is officially underway. After a victory against Northeastern on Friday, the Red Sox dropped a surprisingly eventful game on Sunday. The Sox led the Blue Jays, 5-2, in the fourth inning. The score stayed the same until the ninth, when the Jays exploded for six runs then barely held on for an 8-7 win. The real fireworks happened early, and they made Boston’s offseason moves look very smart. Garrett Crochet looked every bit the ace the Red Sox traded for, striking out the side in the first, while Alex Bregman went 3-for-3 with a single, double, and homer. This is why you go out and get stars:

Obviously, spring training results don’t matter, but it sure is encouraging to watch Alex Bregman pepper a Green Monster, even if it isn’t the Green Monster. However, much more important is the thousand Red Sox players with medical concerns. Those concerns range from Tommy John recovery to lingering knee soreness to waking up with a sore calf. Let's go over them all.

Rafael Devers
Devers is still focused on rehabbing his shoulder. He has started taking grounders and working in the batting cages, but has yet to do any workouts with the rest of the team. Jen McCaffrey posted video of him field grounders on Friday, and he was seen taking infield at third base on Sunday. He’s expected to begin team workouts this week.

Masataka Yoshida
Speaking of shoulders, Yoshida underwent a repair for a torn labrum in his right shoulder in October, and is still recovering. “It’s a long process. It was a big, big surgery,” Alex Cora told reporters. “He’s swinging right now, and he knows that we need him to play defense.” Yoshida took fielding drills with the outfielders in left field at JetBlue Park. “In terms of hitting, I feel 100 percent with my swing,” Yoshida said through an interpreter. “In terms of throwing, I just started throwing outside, so we’ll see how that goes.” When asked if he’d be ready for Opening Day, he said, “That’s the plan. Trying to get more playing time, more at-bats, just doing everything I can to get myself ready.”

Roman Anthony
Anthony sat out Friday’s game after getting hit by a pitch on Thursday, but he’s fine. He played against the Blue Jays on Sunday and went 1-for-3 with a single. 

Jarren Duran
Anthony wasn’t actually slated to start on Sunday, but he replaced Duran, who has a tight left calf. Cora said that Duran should be back this week, so at the moment, it seems safe to assume that the move was precautionary.

Connor Wong
Wong also missed Sunday’s game due to a sore shoulder, but is likely to play today. “He felt it yesterday but it’s nothing serious,” Cora said. “We’ve just gotta play it smart with him and Jarren, too. That’s why they are not playing today.”

Wilyer Abreu
For whatever it’s worth, Julian McWilliams noted that Abreu showed up to camp “notably slimmer.” More importantly, Abreu came into camp with a gastrointestinal virus, and in order to avoid spreading it, he hasn’t been around the team. “The labs came in Friday, said Cora on Saturday. “There’s still something there. He’ll get another lab Monday and we’ll see where we’re at. I don’t want to get into it but there’s something going on. Until we get the clearance from the doctors, we’ll stay away from him." According to Chris Cotillo, the labs have been getting better, but he won’t get into action until they’re back to normal.

Kutter Crawford
Let's move on to the pitchers. On Sunday, Alex Cora told reporters that Crawford is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day. Julian McWilliams reported that he’s likely to start the season on the IL. Crawford has been dealing with pain in his right patellar tendon since his third start of 2024, when he tweaked it while covering first base on a groundball Ryan O’Hearn. You can see the play below:

Crawford pitched through the injury all year, which might explain why his performance and velocity dipped later in the season. He didn’t reveal the injury publicly until he returned to camp and announced that he’d had a setback in the weight room in December. “I did something [to it] this offseason,” he told reporters. I had a couple hiccups within the rehab progression of it all. I’m just a little behind. The strength just isn't there where we want it to be.” On Sunday, Cora told reporters that Crawford had an MRI over the weekend, and it looked the same as an MRI taken earlier in the offseason. He’s still throwing low-intensity bullpens, but this will be a big one to watch. “With Kutter, that’s the one. It looks like is going to be long,” said Alex Cora on Saturday. “Opening Day, right now, is an ‘if.’ Let’s see what happens. He’s just not feeling well. He’s behind and we’ve got to make sure the knee is good so the shoulder doesn’t suffer.”

Garrett Whitlock
As videos and reports of other pitchers flooded our timelines over the past week, we didn’t hear much about Whitlock, because he was resting as part of a scheduled de-load week as he rehabs from his internal brace procedure. He threw a 25-pitch bullpen on Friday and all indications are that he looks good.

 

Brayan Bello
Bello developed shoulder soreness right before he arrived in camp in Fort Myers, and he took the first week off. He’s graduated to playing catch, and he’s scheduled to throw from a distance of 90 feet today, as well as to undergo a strength test. The timeline here is important. If everything were to go perfectly, Bello would still have time to build up for the start of the season. If he experiences any setbacks, things could get dicey. “I don’t think in a week (he’ll be ready for games). He’s not even throwing bullpens,” Cora said. “Let’s see next week how it goes.”

Lucas Giolito
The team posted video of Giolito throwing yesterday. He’s set to throw his first live batting practice today.

Zach Penrod
Coming into camp, Penrod appeared likely to start the season in Worcester, but at least in the mix for a bullpen role to start the season. However, the lefty experienced the dreaded elbow soreness and underwent an MRI on Wednesday. That domino was likely responsible for the team signing Matt Moore to a minor-league deal as a non-roster invite. The good news is that the MRI indicated Penrod’s unlar collateral ligament is intact. The bad news: “He’s gonna be out for a while,” Cora said. “Nothing structural, elbow inflammation. So we’ll shut him down for now. We’re not talking surgery, but rehab and we’ll see how it goes.”

Patrick Sandoval
There aren't any real updates on Sandoval, who is still expected to return sometime in the second half. In a profile on Sandoval published today, the Boston Globe's Peter Abraham did quote Cora as saying, "We have to be patient."

View full article

[moonslav59]

Hopefully, most of these are just minor issues. Penrod's look bad, but he was not a key player. Sandoval was know to be out for 2-3 months. Whitlock was expected back in mid April or early May. I still think Gio and Yoshi will be ready by opening day, as long as no set backs.

Crawford and Devers are the key players w concerns.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Hopefully, most of these are just minor issues. Penrod's look bad, but he was not a key player. Sandoval was know to be out for 2-3 months. Whitlock was expected back in mid April or early May. I still think Gio and Yoshi will be ready by opening day, as long as no set backs.

Crawford and Devers are the key players w concerns.

Crawford is probably going to miss significant time. Unsure about Devers, but maybe this completely forces him off 3b.

I am shocked SHOCKED that Bello will again miss Opening Day. 

[Tedballgame]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Hopefully, most of these are just minor issues. Penrod's look bad, but he was not a key player. Sandoval was know to be out for 2-3 months. Whitlock was expected back in mid April or early May. I still think Gio and Yoshi will be ready by opening day, as long as no set backs.

Crawford and Devers are the key players w concerns.

Crawford is a below average major league pitcher. He eats some innings and has an occasional good game. Losing him for awhile isn't going to hurt that much. He is replaceable by Fitts, Priester or Kelly. 

[vegasbob]

Amazing how showing up to ST and related soreness brings about a reordering of pitching staffs .

If Devers' shoulder (s?) didn't recover well over the off season, why would  they now. ?   On the other hand it is EARLY and why push any buttons now .   

Let's recheck this list in late March and see who got well and who else went down.

 

[dgalehouse]

2 hours ago, Tedballgame said:

Crawford is a below average major league pitcher. He eats some innings and has an occasional good game. Losing him for awhile isn't going to hurt that much. He is replaceable by Fitts, Priester or Kelly. 

I have been having trouble myself  trying to figure out what all of the fuss is about over Kutter Crawford. He has a career record of 18-31, with a career ERA of 4.56. He has a unique, short arm delivery that can be deceptive, but a propensity for giving up the long ball. No longer a kid, he turns 29 in April. He is not the worst guy to have on your pitching staff, but hardly someone to put much stock in. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

I have been having trouble myself  trying to figure out what all of the fuss is about over Kutter Crawford. He has a career record of 18-31, with a career ERA of 4.56. He has a unique, short arm delivery that can be deceptive, but a propensity for giving up the long ball. No longer a kid, he turns 29 in April. He is not the worst guy to have on your pitching staff, but hardly someone to put much stock in. 

Put it this way: Crawford's best ability isn't his fallibility. Any pitcher who leads the majors in games started has to at least be good enough and healthy enough to make the starts.

[dgalehouse]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Put it this way: Crawford's best ability isn't his fallibility. Any pitcher who leads the majors in games started has to at least be good enough and healthy enough to make the starts.

I guess that counts for something. It is a requirement that you have a pitcher on the mound to start the game. 

[Bellhorn04]

An innings-eater like Crawford was last year is always valuable.  It's the Tim Wakefield/Rick Porcello role.

Some of Crawford's numbers were very good.  A 1.12 WHIP.  15 Quality Starts.  He had 6 starts where he gave up either 5 or 6 ER, which obviously kicks the crap out of the old ERA. 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

20 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

An innings-eater like Crawford was last year is always valuable.  It's the Tim Wakefield/Rick Porcello role.

Some of Crawford's numbers were very good.  A 1.12 WHIP.  15 Quality Starts.  He had 6 starts where he gave up either 5 or 6 ER, which obviously kicks the crap out of the old ERA. 

So he was good except for the times he wasn't. Got it.

[Bellhorn04]

10 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

So he was good except for the times he wasn't. Got it.

He was dead on average, with a 98 ERA+ and a 2.0 bWAR.  And he pitched a lot of innings by today's standards.  That has value.  This isn't really controversial.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

13 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

He was dead on average, with a 98 ERA+ and a 2.0 bWAR.  And he pitched a lot of innings by today's standards.  That has value.  This isn't really controversial.

Isn't a 98 ERA+ below average?

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Isn't a 98 ERA+ below average?

Yeah, you got me, it's 2% below average.  Close enough for most people.  And the 2.0 bWAR is right around average.   

[harmony]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

An innings-eater like Crawford was last year is always valuable.  It's the Tim Wakefield/Rick Porcello role.

Some of Crawford's numbers were very good.  A 1.12 WHIP.  15 Quality Starts.  He had 6 starts where he gave up either 5 or 6 ER, which obviously kicks the crap out of the old ERA. 

A healthy Kutter Crawford carries great value.

An unhealthy Kutter Crawford does not.

[Bellhorn04]

9 hours ago, harmony said:

A healthy Kutter Crawford carries great value.

An unhealthy Kutter Crawford does not.

Pretty hard to argue with! 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

10 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, you got me, it's 2% below average.  Close enough for most people.  And the 2.0 bWAR is right around average.   

Well, you are the one that claimed it was "dead on".

[Bellhorn04]

20 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Well, you are the one that claimed it was "dead on".

And you're just being annoying because you can't help it and you're in reality not a contributor but a troll who's been banned from here a couple of times already.   

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

15 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And you're just being annoying because you can't help it and you're in reality not a contributor but a troll who's been banned from here a couple of times already.   

So now you are going to hurl insults because you were called out on a false statement. Got it.

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, you got me, it's 2% below average.  Close enough for most people.  And the 2.0 bWAR is right around average.   

I can't imagine that guys like Priester, Fitts, et al can come in and automatically be 2% below average right from the jump. Any fill in could be significantly worse than Crawford. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Is 2.0 bWAR average for a starter?  Maybe average for a solid starter?

Every team in the American League had at least one last year, and six had at least three: NY, TB, KC, Minny, M's and Stros. The Royals clearly had the most valuable quartet... but they clearly pitched in the same division as the White Sox.

'24 WAR for AL Starting Pitchers (from bottom up):

LA: Anderson 3.1, Soriano 2.1; A's: Sears 2.3; Tex: Eovaldi 2.3; M's: Miller 3.4, Gilbert 2.8, Woo 2.4; Hou: Valdez 4.5, Blanco 4.5, Brown 2.6.

Chi: Fedde 4.7, Crochet 4.1; Minn: Ober 2.9, Lopez 2.5, Ryan 2.3, Richardson 2.0; KC: Lugo 5.3, Ragans 4.9, Wacha 3.5, Singer 3.1; Det: Skubal 6.3, Flaherty 2.4; Clev: Bibee 2.6.

Tor: Berrios 2.2; TB: Littell 2.8, Pepiot 2.1, Baz 2.1; RED SOX: Houck 3.5 (best in East), Crawford 2.0; O's: Burnes 3.4, Suarez 2.1; NY: Gil 3.1, Cortes 2.6, Schmidt 2.0, Cole 2.0.

[moonslav59]

16 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

I have been having trouble myself  trying to figure out what all of the fuss is about over Kutter Crawford. He has a career record of 18-31, with a career ERA of 4.56. He has a unique, short arm delivery that can be deceptive, but a propensity for giving up the long ball. No longer a kid, he turns 29 in April. He is not the worst guy to have on your pitching staff, but hardly someone to put much stock in. 

I'm not seeing a big "fuss" over Crawford. Most of the talk has been about is he better than Bello or Gio, or should he be the 5th, 6th starter or in the pen as the long man. Hardly a "fuss," but here are some numbers that show he might be better than average:

Looking at 2023-2024, and why count his first couple seasons, anyway?

32nd in IP. That's not a bad thing, even if mediocre. It beats having Chase Anderson and Keller on the mound. To put this in perspective, there are 150 pitchers in the rotations of 30 teams, at any given moment. You have to drop the 2 season sample size to under 140 IP (70 per season!) to get that many pitchers.

Among the 150 pitchers with 140+ IP since 2023, Crawford places.....

49th in fWAR at 4.1 (Houck is 4.9 and Crochet 4.7) TOP 3rd

64th in SIERA at 4.04 (League SIERA: 4.27)

87th in ERA- at 101 (slightly better than the league average of 102.) Middle 3rd.

90th xFIP at 4.33 near bottom of middle 3rd. (League 4.22)

45th in K-BB% at 17.3% (league 114.3%)

The kid is not bad. He's about average, which as a 5-6 starter is damn good, IMO!

[moonslav59]

13 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Isn't a 98 ERA+ below average?

Since 2023, the league average is a 102 ERA-, Kutter's is slightly better at 101 for SP'ers. When you factor in rotten defense, his SIERA 4.04, while the leagues is 4.27.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Since 2023, the league average is a 102 ERA-, Kutter's is slightly better at 101 for SP'ers. When you factor in rotten defense, his SIERA 4.04, while the leagues is 4.27.

So, like I said, his was below average last year.

[FredLynn]

2 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

So now you are going to hurl insults because you were called out on a false statement. Got it.

Dude, give me a break. Those metrics are not spot on accurate. A 2% difference is insignificant.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

12 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Dude, give me a break. Those metrics are not spot on accurate. A 2% difference is insignificant.

Regardless, it is how it's measured. And, last I checked, 98 is below average.

[Jasonbay44]

We’ve had some really bad starting pitchers over the years so I think Crawford has value. You obviously don’t want him being your ace or anything but he is a very solid back of rotation guy who can eat innings, is durable and doesn’t kill your team or the bullpen.

[FredLynn]

4 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Regardless, it is how it's measured. And, last I checked, 98 is below average.

Ever heard of "margin of error"?

[FredLynn]

1 minute ago, Jasonbay44 said:

We’ve had some really bad starting pitchers over the years so I think Crawford has value. You obviously don’t want him being your ace or anything but he is a very solid back of rotation guy who can eat innings, is durable and doesn’t kill your team or the bullpen.

He'd be more valuable if he could limit those HRs. As a back end SP he's OK. There are many SP on the roster this year who rank ahead of him, fortunately.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

2 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Ever heard of "margin of error"?

Argue with the stat heads, not me.

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Ever heard of "margin of error"?

Incredible, isn't he.