Article: Steamer’s New Splits Projections for the Red Sox Aren’t Pretty

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

Baseball sure has changed. We have gone from " Take me out to the ball game" to " Steamer's Splits Projections ".  Oofah!!!

Yes, I have fond memories of signing that song in February.

[Duran Is The Man]

On 2/1/2025 at 9:31 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

Personally I can't wait to find out how Raffy's shoulders healed.

i have a funny feeling that it's not healed and he will miss significant time and end up having surgery. and then we'll really be wishing we had Bregman.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i have a funny feeling that it's not healed and he will miss significant time and end up having surgery. and then we'll really be wishing we had Bregman.

Yeah, I get too many funny feelings like that.

[moonslav59]

I can't find any recent reports on his shoulder(s.) Back in September, they said it was "nothing structural," and that off season workout is all that is needed. 

I, too, have my doubts. It's not like our medical team has a great record.

Devers has said both shoulders bothered him, but the left one was the worst and "hurt" all season. It's pretty amazing that he was on his way to his best career OPS into mis August, despite the injury.

It seems like just about every Sox player has some sort of lingering question(s.)

[Bellhorn04]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I can't find any recent reports on his shoulder(s.) Back in September, they said it was "nothing structural," and that off season workout is all that is needed. 

I, too, have my doubts. It's not like our medical team has a great record.

I'm not trying to put it on the medical team.  But I'd love to see the explanation for how this problem is not going to reoccur once he starts trying to demolish 98 MPH fastballs again. 

[moonslav59]

39 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm not trying to put it on the medical team.  But I'd love to see the explanation for how this problem is not going to reoccur once he starts trying to demolish 98 MPH fastballs again. 

I never really trust a treatment of "building up the muscles around" the problem area, but that seems to be the rough idea, here.

I'm worried, too, but if surgery was not a cure, what else can be done?

[notin]

Steamer couldn’t predict yesterday’s weather.

 

When it comes to projections I rely on the time-honored adage “if it’s not WAPM, it’s CRAPM”…

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm not trying to put it on the medical team.  But I'd love to see the explanation for how this problem is not going to reoccur once he starts trying to demolish 98 MPH fastballs again. 

The diagnosis was “shoulder inflammation.”  Kind of vague, but if you or I had such a diagnosis, the doctor would tell us “take some Advil and quit whining.”  (Maybe your doctor is less of an a-hole than mine.). 
 

There are a range of inflammations and treatments.  The most “severe” treatment is probably an injection of corticosteroids.  For many players, those injections are part of their balanced breakfast…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm not trying to put it on the medical team.  But I'd love to see the explanation for how this problem is not going to reoccur once he starts trying to demolish 98 MPH fastballs again. 

Same with Casas' core -- the one he torques every time he swings the bat.

[notin]

20 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Same with Casas' core -- the one he torques every time he swings the bat.

Didn’t he come back from that last year?

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Didn’t he come back from that last year?

Yes.  But it's a scary injury because it appears to have resulted simply from a lot of hard swings, which I'm sure he's planning to continue.

If he makes it through 2025 OK that will be very reassuring. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Didn’t he come back from that last year?

Played the last month and a half, after missing 3 1/2 months. Didn't quite finish the season like he did in '23, though. 

I think we'd all like to see if he can go a full season without tweaking the same area again.

[notin]

Just now, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Played the last month and a half, after missing 3 1/2 months. Didn't quite finish the season like he did in '23, though. 

I think we'd all like to see if he can go a full season without tweaking the same area again.

I’m not worried about any of the hitters’ injuries from last year.

I worry much more about Crochet, Whitlock, Hendriks, Giolito, etc. as the comeback road for pitchers always seems much more difficult…

[moonslav59]

I had my knee scoped and was told to strengthen my knee muscles to lessen the chance of a reinjury. I have done the exercises, and my knee still bothers me, on and off.

I have a minor rotator cuff issue and was told surgery is an option but I should first try to strengthen the should muscles. I have done the PT, religiously, and it still bothers me the same as before.

These are just two anecdotal examples, and they may bias me against the hopes that Devers will be okay, but what is different about his case than mine, is that surgery was not a possible option.

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m not worried about any of the hitters’ injuries from last year.

I worry much more about Crochet, Whitlock, Hendriks, Giolito, etc. as the comeback road for pitchers always seems much more difficult…

There are plenty of examples of hitters breaking down from injury too, though.  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m not worried about any of the hitters’ injuries from last year.

I worry much more about Crochet, Whitlock, Hendriks, Giolito, etc. as the comeback road for pitchers always seems much more difficult…

It's like saying we have one of the best rotations based on everyone's past glories before they were hurt, and assuming they'll all come back as good as new.

Looking at them all, and their histories, and their deliveries... there's only one sure thing: Cr☠️wf😡rd.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m not worried about any of the hitters’ injuries from last year.

I worry much more about Crochet, Whitlock, Hendriks, Giolito, etc. as the comeback road for pitchers always seems much more difficult…

I do worry about Story, a lot. I worry more about Casas than Devers, and the fact that Devers was on pace to beat his career high OPS in mid August makes me feel a little better about him than Casas. I have no elevated concerns about any other everyday players and injuries.

I am very concerned about Buehler, Giolito, Crochet, Whitlock and Hendriks and have some concern about Houck, Slaten and Chapman due mostly to his age.

We've gotten accustomed to dealing with no Story, although we have added no SS, this winter. Rafaela offered some stability to the position and could in 2025, aagin. Mayer seems closer to being ML ready as ever and is also an injury concern.

We have nobody to replace Devers, unless we think Campbell or Grissom can do the job. (Story or Mayer?)

We have nobody at 1B, unless you think Romy, Ref and Wong can piece together a decent fill-in. Most likely, we'd need to add another D Smith type.

At least with the pitching, we can probably navigate one or two longer term injuries, and maybe Sandoval can be ready, if one goes down after July. We look to be starting the year with a 6 man rotation, so if one goes down, we just move to 5. If two go down, we add the better of Criswell, Fitts, Priester or Dobbins, which is not ideal, buts till better than what we have for depth at corner IF.

Our pen is nothing, except for a ton of depth. Not great depth, but numerous promising pitchers at AAA, including a conversion of a SP'er to a MLB pen role.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It's like saying we have one of the best rotations based on everyone's past glories before they were hurt, and assuming they'll all come back as good as new.

Looking at them all, and their histories, and their deliveries... there's only one sure thing: Cr☠️wf😡rd.

There are very few sure bet SP'ers in MLB, and the ones that have gone 25+ GS for 3+ years in a row are often over 31 or 32.

Bello has 58 GS over the past 2 years. Crawford has 56.

Houck seemed to prove he can be a full season SP'er, but with a past back injury, all bets are off.

Crochet has a well documented history of being a RP'er only with a major injury added to the mix.

Buehler is close to Chris Sale II, but without the long stretch of great pitching and durability beforehand.

Giolito was viewed as "durable" and dependable, before 2024. Now, all bets are off on him, too.

Wink and Whitlock should not start, again, unless as an opener.

Criswell, Fitts, priester and Dobbins might produce a decent 7th and 8th starter. If we need to go 9 deep, we are probably toast.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

There are very few sure bet SP'ers in MLB, and the ones that have gone 25+ GS for 3+ years in a row are often over 31 or 32.

Bello has 58 GS over the past 2 years. Crawford has 56.

Houck seemed to prove he can be a full season SP'er, but with a past back injury, all bets are off.

Crochet has a well documented history of being a RP'er only with a major injury added to the mix.

Buehler is close to Chris Sale II, but without the long stretch of great pitching and durability beforehand.

Giolito was viewed as "durable" and dependable, before 2024. Now, all bets are off on him, too.

Wink and Whitlock should not start, again, unless as an opener.

Criswell, Fitts, priester and Dobbins might produce a decent 7th and 8th starter. If we need to go 9 deep, we are probably toast.

Praying Payton Tolle crushes three or four levels to get to Fenway, and when they hesitate to let him in, smashes open our window...

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Praying Payton Tolle crushes three or four levels to get to Fenway, and when they hesitate to let him in, smashes open our window...

I doubt we end up needing to go that deep, this year.

[mvp 78]

8 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i have a funny feeling that it's not healed and he will miss significant time and end up having surgery. and then we'll really be wishing we had Bregman.

Devers will be out for 6 years?!?!?!?

[mvp 78]

4 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Praying Payton Tolle crushes three or four levels to get to Fenway, and when they hesitate to let him in, smashes open our window...

In 2027?

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Devers will be out for 6 years?!?!?!?

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

If Devers is out, it won't matter if Bregman is already on the team. The Sox will be cooked if Devers misses any significant time or is still struggling with his shoulder. 

[Old Red]

21 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Devers is out, it won't matter if Bregman is already on the team. The Sox will be cooked if Devers misses any significant time or is still struggling with his shoulder. 

You mean the Red Sox would be a 500, or below team like they have been the last 3 years with him?

[Bellhorn04]

45 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Devers is out, it won't matter if Bregman is already on the team. The Sox will be cooked if Devers misses any significant time or is still struggling with his shoulder. 

Yeah, when you take Raffy out of our lineup, it looks pretty feeble.  Not much in the way of consistent power threats.  Casas is about it.

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You mean the Red Sox would be a 500, or below team like they have been the last 3 years with him?

They'll have a similar record to previous years, but with their best player on the sidelines. If their best player is playing, they'll be better than before since the players around him are better than the past few years. 

Baseball isn't a one man sport like basketball. In ARod's 3 years in TEX, the Rangers never won more than 73 games while ARod had 8+ bWAR seasons each year with 156 HR, 395 RBI, 1011 OPS and played 161+ games each year.

[moonslav59]

Losing Devers would end the season, IMO. We might as well trade all one year contracts for the most we can get.

[Old Red]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They'll have a similar record to previous years, but with their best player on the sidelines. If their best player is playing, they'll be better than before since the players around him are better than the past few years. 

Baseball isn't a one man sport like basketball. In ARod's 3 years in TEX, the Rangers never won more than 73 games while ARod had 8+ bWAR seasons each year with 156 HR, 395 RBI, 1011 OPS and played 161+ games each year.

All I’m saying is the Red Sox have been a 500, or below team the last three years with Raffy. Healthy lineup, and the pitching staff is the big thing to make the Red Sox better in the standings.

[Bellhorn04]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Losing Devers would end the season, IMO. We might as well trade all one year contracts for the most we can get.

Unless Lynn and Rice step into the void. 🙂