Article: The Red Sox Have Begun Extension Talks With Garrett Crochet

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sure, but we've seen many more pitchers completely lose it when compared to hitters. Trout seems to be a very rare case.

Carl Crawford, Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval didn't get hurt, they just turned to suck.  That happens to position players too.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I was talking about the risk from Crochet's end.  

Yes, okay. 

Crochet might have total confidence that he will be an ace for 7-10 more years, but he has to worry about a major injury, and that is why he should take less than open market prices starting 2 years from now.

I think he might take a similar offer to what we have suggested. The sticking point might be on opt-outs and when they are.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Carl Crawford, Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval didn't get hurt, they just turned to suck.  That happens to position players too.

Pujols, Goldschmidt, Miggy, and many more dropped off significantly and some, quite early in their new deals.

[Bellhorn04]

They can put in some bells and whistles too.  A lower salary but with incentive money per appearance would guard some against injury.  

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They can put in some bells and whistles too.  A lower salary but with incentive money per appearance would guard some against injury.  

I did not think of this, and Cochet may not want to go this route, but it's worth a try.

Maybe if he insists on an opt out or two, we can counter with a lower guarantee with performance bonuses to hedge our bet, too.

[Bellhorn04]

Here's the story on the Scherzer extension offer from the Tigers, which got kind of ugly PR-wise.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/04/flashback-the-spring-2014-contract-spat-between-max-scherzer-the-tigers.html#:~:text=“Max Scherzer made a substantial,offer was rejected by Detroit.

What I didn't know was that Scherzer took out an insurance policy on himself that would have paid him $40 million if he got injured in 2014. Now that's how you hedge betting on yourself!  The premiums must have been hefty. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This isn't Wayne Garland, who Cleveland gave the first 10-year contract in the history of free agency.

Details: 10 years for $2.3 million -- not bad, considering he turned down Baltimore's offer of $40 thousand...

... but then Garland blew out his rotator cuff -- before arthroscopic surgery existed.

Wayne never made a big league All-Star team, but earned his fame at age 12, when he reportedly struck out the first 56 batters he faced in Nashville Little League. 

[Old Red]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Crochet is a very interesting case for sure.

The old schoolers (and notin seems to be an old schooler money-wise) think it's nuts to give Crochet a $150 million+ deal without seeing more of him.

If the Sox do the wait and see thing, there's no predicting how it will turn out.  If Crochet has a huge season his price goes way up and if he has a bad season it could go way down. 

Crochet could just say screw it, play out the two years with no extension - bet on himself. 

The wait and see thing opens the risk of a stud starter walking away from us after 2 years.  And he'll only be 27 when he does.  Possibly lined up for a $300 million payday.

 

I don’t think it has anything to do with being an old schooler at all. I’ve asked for comps, and I’ve been told there is no comp, and there is a reason for that No pitcher that I know of has been paid $20M a year, and given a 6 figure contract after only pitching 219 career innings, and only 146 as a starter. It doesn’t matter his age, his years of service, his arbitration, or FA status. No doubt he has good stuff, and potential' but some on here are trying to to make him out to be better than he is at this point in his career. He may get there, and then again he might not. I get it that the RED Sox traded some precious highly rated suspects  For him, and everyone wants him to tun out to be one of a kind.

[moonslav59]

Guess who will be the number one complainer, if Crochet goes on to greatness, and we "low-balled" him, when we had the chance to extend him.

For those of us suggesting we offer him an unprecedented extension, based on his limited MLB IP, I for one am ready to admit to a major blunder, if he comes up way short. It is a major risk/gamble. I think we all know that.

We tried to get Betts to extend before he was a year from free agency. He said no, and look how his asking price jumper out of JH's range. This may or may not happen with crochet, if we wait, and there is merit to waiting, but we should be prepared to lose someone great, if we do so- just as we should be prepared to be let down, if we extend him, and he comes up little.

[moonslav59]

Brent Rooker is not a pitcher, and may end up being mostly a DH. He had 3 arb years left and just signed an extension.

Instead of maybe $1-3M for this year's arb, he gets $4M, $8M next year and $14M is what would have been arb 3 in 2027. (These numbers reflect his signing bonus of $10M, spread out.)

It was basically a $60M/5 deal that added two years of control. Assuming he might have made $20-30M over his 3 arb years, it's hard to figure what they paid him for years 4 and 5: maybe $30-40M/2 or $15-20M AAV x 2. Not sure this helps with projecting Crochet bu he had 3 arbs left.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I don’t think it has anything to do with being an old schooler at all. I’ve asked for comps, and I’ve been told there is no comp, and there is a reason for that No pitcher that I know of has been paid $20M a year, and given a 6 figure contract after only pitching 219 career innings, and only 146 as a starter. It doesn’t matter his age, his years of service, his arbitration, or FA status. No doubt he has good stuff, and potential' but some on here are trying to to make him out to be better than he is at this point in his career. He may get there, and then again he might not. I get it that the RED Sox traded some precious highly rated suspects  For him, and everyone wants him to tun out to be one of a kind.

I think the Red Sox agree with you.

How about five years at $80M for an AAV of $16M -- below market value for an ace -- but remember, he already signed with Boston this year for $3.8M.

'26: $7M (basically doubles '25)

'27: $15M (doubles '26, and is more AAV than every 2024 AL All-Star starting pitcher will make this year, except Burnes.)

'28: $18M -- at age 28,,, what Boston paid Giolito at age 29

'29: $19M... what Boston will pay Giolito to finally throw a pitch this season

'30: $21M -- at age 30... what Boston will pay Buehler at 30 to beat the Yankees again this year

 

[mvp 78]

59 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Carl Crawford, Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval didn't get hurt, they just turned to suck.  That happens to position players too.

Sure, no contract is without risk. I think hitters are a bit safer though.

[mvp 78]

59 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Pujols, Goldschmidt, Miggy, and many more dropped off significantly and some, quite early in their new deals.

Yeah, players can fall off after their prime seasons. Is that surprising? 

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I think the Red Sox agree with you.

How about five years at $80M for an AAV of $16M -- below market value for an ace -- but remember, he already signed with Boston this year for $3.8M.

'26: $7M (basically doubles '25)

'27: $15M (doubles '26, and is more AAV than every 2024 AL All-Star starting pitcher will make this year, except Burnes.)

'28: $18M -- at age 28,,, what Boston paid Giolito at age 29

'29: $19M... what Boston will pay Giolito to finally throw a pitch this season

'30: $21M -- at age 30... what Boston will pay Buehler at 30 to beat the Yankees again this year

 

I think he'd say no to this, but it seems like a fair first offer.

Also, just because he has a $3.8M deal in place for 2025, does not mean an extension has to start in 2026. Sometimes, it helps to offer a younger player a nice signing bonus or rework the deal to include the current year at more money, You then lower the back-end money, so the AVV is lower for the team, and the player makes out by getting more money, up front.

My guess is, he 2026 arb would pay him more than $7M, if he does well, but that is a big guess, right now.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

I don’t think it has anything to do with being an old schooler at all. I’ve asked for comps, and I’ve been told there is no comp, and there is a reason for that No pitcher that I know of has been paid $20M a year, and given a 6 figure contract after only pitching 219 career innings, and only 146 as a starter.

Yamamoto?

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yamamoto?

He did say no pitcher that HE knows of. 

[notin]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Carl Crawford, Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval didn't get hurt, they just turned to suck.  That happens to position players too.

I think Hanley did actually get hurt.  Once he banged up his shoulder, he went from early MVP candidate to long term Manchurian Candidate…

[notin]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yamamoto?

Yamamoto had about 900 IP in Japan and had his salary determined by a multi-team bidding war.

I stand by my Tyler Glasnow comp as the closest so far…

[notin]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Here's the story on the Scherzer extension offer from the Tigers, which got kind of ugly PR-wise.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/04/flashback-the-spring-2014-contract-spat-between-max-scherzer-the-tigers.html#:~:text=“Max Scherzer made a substantial,offer was rejected by Detroit.

What I didn't know was that Scherzer took out an insurance policy on himself that would have paid him $40 million if he got injured in 2014. Now that's how you hedge betting on yourself!  The premiums must have been hefty. 

No, he bundled it with his home and auto…

[Bellhorn04]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Yamamoto had about 900 IP in Japan and had his salary determined by a multi-team bidding war.

OK, well the first point is kind of a rabbit's hole.  But what makes the bidding war for Yamamoto different from any other free agency?  The bidding war for Soto looked much the same.  And if Crochet pitches up to expectations the next 2 years and the Sox fail to extend him, there'll be a bidding war for him too.  Crochet has a potential payday of maybe $250 million.  You might be able to get him to forego the opportunity for that kind of payday by offering him your $80-90 million now, and you might not.  Look at all the offers Betts turned down-3 as we now know.  It takes guts to turn down a guaranteed $200 million (cue the Mama jokes).  But some of these guys have done it.  

[Old Red]

36 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OK, well the first point is kind of a rabbit's hole.  But what makes the bidding war for Yamamoto different from any other free agency?  The bidding war for Soto looked much the same.  And if Crochet pitches up to expectations the next 2 years and the Sox fail to extend him, there'll be a bidding war for him too.  Crochet has a potential payday of maybe $250 million.  You might be able to get him to forego the opportunity for that kind of payday by offering him your $80-90 million now, and you might not.  Look at all the offers Betts turned down-3 as we now know.  It takes guts to turn down a guaranteed $200 million (cue the Mama jokes).  But some of these guys have done it.  

You are really going to compare the Yam Man, and Cro Man’s resume at age 25?🙈🤭. Yam Man had already thrown 897 innings compared to 219 for Crochet. Yes it was in another country, but that’s not even close to an = comparison. If, if, if on Crochet. Everyone is very well aware of that. I’m all for offering Crochet an extension, but just not as high as your suggestion of starting him out with $20M+ the next two years.

[drewski6]

16 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You are really going to compare the Yam Man, and Cro Man’s resume at age 25?🙈🤭. Yam Man had already thrown 897 innings compared to 219 for Crochet. Yes it was in another country, but that’s not even close to an = comparison. If, if, if on Crochet. Everyone is very well aware of that. I’m all for offering Crochet an extension, but just not as high as your suggestion of starting him out with $20M+ the next two years.

Id rather have the guy with less wear and tear.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OK, well the first point is kind of a rabbit's hole.  But what makes the bidding war for Yamamoto different from any other free agency?  The bidding war for Soto looked much the same.  And if Crochet pitches up to expectations the next 2 years and the Sox fail to extend him, there'll be a bidding war for him too.  Crochet has a potential payday of maybe $250 million.  You might be able to get him to forego the opportunity for that kind of payday by offering him your $80-90 million now, and you might not.  Look at all the offers Betts turned down-3 as we now know.  It takes guts to turn down a guaranteed $200 million (cue the Mama jokes).  But some of these guys have done it.  

The difference is the bidding war for Yamamoto actually happened and isn’t some conditional future possibility like it is with Crochet…

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

The difference is the bidding war for Yamamoto actually happened and isn’t some conditional future possibility like it is with Crochet…

And Crochet isn’t a FA, and wouldn’t be one for the next two seasons.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OK, well the first point is kind of a rabbit's hole.  But what makes the bidding war for Yamamoto different from any other free agency?  The bidding war for Soto looked much the same.  And if Crochet pitches up to expectations the next 2 years and the Sox fail to extend him, there'll be a bidding war for him too.  Crochet has a potential payday of maybe $250 million.  You might be able to get him to forego the opportunity for that kind of payday by offering him your $80-90 million now, and you might not.  Look at all the offers Betts turned down-3 as we now know.  It takes guts to turn down a guaranteed $200 million (cue the Mama jokes).  But some of these guys have done it.  

Potential payday of $250million?  Where did that number come from?

Only 4 pitchers in history have received contracts that large.  Shohei Ohtani (an obvious unique case), Yamamoto (who was 25; Crochet will not be a free agent at age 25 and has less experience and an arm surgery), Gerrit Cole, and Stephen Straburg (it was actually $245mill, but close enough.  Also a strong contender for the worst contract in MLB history, as Strasburg only pitched 31 innings on it before injuries ended his career.  Washington still owes him $70mill over the next two seasons.)

Ohtani will very likely see his pitching career end before that contract does, but he can clearly contribute other ways…

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, Old Red said:

And Crochet isn’t a FA, and wouldn’t be one for the next two seasons.

Wow, really? 

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Wow, really? 

Been lots of what if questions on here if he was one. Really!🤫

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

Potential payday of $250million?  Where did that number come from?

Only 4 pitchers in history have received contracts that large.  Shohei Ohtani (an obvious unique case), Yamamoto (who was 25; Crochet will not be a free agent at age 25 and has less experience and an arm surgery), Gerrit Cole, and Stephen Straburg (it was actually $245mill, but close enough.  Also a strong contender for the worst contract in MLB history, as Strasburg only pitched 31 innings on it before injuries ended his career.  Washington still owes him $70mill over the next two seasons.)

Ohtani will very likely see his pitching career end before that contract does, but he can clearly contribute other ways…

You think Skubal will get less than 250M? If Crochet has back to back 5+ WAR seasons in the next two seasons, you don't think he'd get in that range or more? 

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

You think Skubal will get less than 250M? If Crochet has back to back 5+ WAR seasons in the next two seasons, you don't think he'd get in that range or more? 

You don’t have to do any WAR. All you have to see is 35 starts, and 175-200 innings, and the rest will thr care of itself.🙈

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You don’t have to do any WAR. All you have to see is 35 starts, and 175-200 innings, and the rest will thr care of itself.🙈

35 starts? Guess they are going with a much smaller rotation than I thought!