Article: The Red Sox Have Begun Extension Talks With Garrett Crochet

[Nick]

I watched Moneyball for thousandth time.

Does John Henry believe he finally got his man in Breslow? Someone that will get him the least player payroll per win in the majors?

[mvp 78]

45 minutes ago, notin said:

A little hyperbolic.

Pete Alonso is a free agent right now because the Mets couldn’t extend him.  And Aaron Judge was a free agent last year because the Yankees didn’t offer him what he felt was fair value.  And of course Juan Soto left the Bronx without a extension.

Yes the Sox tendered poor offers to Mookie, Lester and Bogaerts.  But Lester was 10 years and 4 GMs ago.  The Mookie situation has been dredged over and Zack Short even spoke out about how it wasn’t so straightforward as we fans want it to be.  Plus the Sox did extend Bogaerts once and did extend Sale.  Point being, this does happen with other teams. Heck the only reason the Sox have Crochet is another team didn’t extend him…

This team couldn't even keep Bobby Dalbec away from the ChiSox. Embarrassing. 

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Bogey already had a long resume, and had won two championships with the Red Sox when he signed while Cro Man doesn’t have much of a resume at all.

Indeed, He was also almost an ironman.

[Old Red]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Indeed, He was also almost an ironman.

This has nothing to do, or take away from the fact that Cro Man has such a limited resume, 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

This has nothing to do, or take away from the fact that Cro Man has such a limited resume, 

His limited resume is largely due to missed time due to injury, so that was the ironman reference.

He was also a RP'er before this past year, so that is a factor not related to being an ironman or not, correct.

[Old Red]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

His limited resume is largely due to missed time due to injury, so that was the ironman reference.

He was also a RP'er before this past year, so that is a factor not related to being an ironman or not, correct.

I understand all of this, but the fact is he has only pitched 219 career innings, and only 146 innings as a starter. Having missed time for whatever reason doesn’t change that. No doubt he has good stuff, but that doesn’t always translate to success on the mound. I would just like to see more innings under his belt, before I offer him a huge long term contract.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, notin said:

A little hyperbolic.

Pete Alonso is a free agent right now because the Mets couldn’t extend him.  And Aaron Judge was a free agent last year because the Yankees didn’t offer him what he felt was fair value.  And of course Juan Soto left the Bronx without a extension.

Yes the Sox tendered poor offers to Mookie, Lester and Bogaerts.  But Lester was 10 years and 4 GMs ago.  The Mookie situation has been dredged over and Zack Short even spoke out about how it wasn’t so straightforward as we fans want it to be.

What Zack Short said was that Betts was very interested in staying, just wanted to get market value (exactly as Mookie himself said), and that the Sox simply failed to get there.  In other words, they lowballed him.  Short also appeared to confirm the final offer was a little short of $300 million, which once again supports what Mookie said.     

Here's a link to the Zack Short thread.  

https://talksox.com/forums/topic/89091-zack-scott-explaining-the-mookie-trade-and-a-lot-more-article-from-over-the-monster/

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I understand all of this, but the fact is he has only pitched 219 career innings, and only 146 innings as a starter. Having missed time for whatever reason doesn’t change that. No doubt he has good stuff, but that doesn’t always translate to success on the mound. I would just like to see more innings under his belt, before I offer him a huge long term contract.

Of course missing time "changed" how many innings he pitched.

Bogey was almost always healthy. Crochet has has TJS. The injury concern is part of the extension consideration.

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

What Zack Short said was that Betts was very interested in staying, just wanted to get market value (exactly as Mookie himself said), and that the Sox simply failed to get there.  In other words, they lowballed him.  Short also appeared to confirm the final offer was a little short of $300 million, which once again supports what Mookie said.     

Here's a link to the Zack Short thread.  

https://talksox.com/forums/topic/89091-zack-scott-explaining-the-mookie-trade-and-a-lot-more-article-from-over-the-monster/

So, just short of $300M was not considered near enough to "market value," which is understandable.

After deferments, he essentially signed for $306M. (Covid likely brought down that contract, but still...)

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Of course missing time "changed" how many innings he pitched.

Bogey was almost always healthy. Crochet has has TJS. The injury concern is part of the extension consideration.

Injury concern is always there for a pitcher. The lack of innings pitched is just a big factor to me in offering him a long term big money contract especially paying him $20M+ for this year as some have suggested on here.

[notin]

32 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

What Zack Short said was that Betts was very interested in staying, just wanted to get market value (exactly as Mookie himself said), and that the Sox simply failed to get there.  In other words, they lowballed him.  Short also appeared to confirm the final offer was a little short of $300 million, which once again supports what Mookie said.     

Here's a link to the Zack Short thread.  

https://talksox.com/forums/topic/89091-zack-scott-explaining-the-mookie-trade-and-a-lot-more-article-from-over-the-monster/

Short did confirm the Sox went higher than many other stories, but also reminded us the mentality against that length of extension was not limited to Boston and small market clubs,

[notin]

35 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So, just short of $300M was not considered near enough to "market value," which is understandable.

After deferments, he essentially signed for $306M. (Covid likely brought down that contract, but still...)

Technical the article says “didn’t top $300mill.”  It leaves it open that the offer might have been $300mill.  Just not $301mill…

[notin]

35 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Injury concern is always there for a pitcher. The lack of innings pitched is just a big factor to me in offering him a long term big money contract especially paying him $20M+ for this year as some have suggested on here.

Both sides are aware of the injury concern.  It’s probably going to be a part of the big reason the Sox won’t have to go as high as 8 years of $200mill to sign extend Crochet…

[Bellhorn04]

38 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So, just short of $300M was not considered near enough to "market value," which is understandable.

After deferments, he essentially signed for $306M. (Covid likely brought down that contract, but still...)

If you're suggesting the Sox weren't that far short, I would agree.  My best guess is if they started with an offer of 11/330, Betts would still be with us.  For whatever reason they just didn't want to do it.

 

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Technical the article says “didn’t top $300mill.”  It leaves it open that the offer might have been $300mill.  Just not $301mill…

Scott said the final offer was "almost $100 million more" than the $200 million offer.

That leaves no possibility of being $300 million.

It does leave $299.99 million if we really want to get silly...

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Injury concern is always there for a pitcher. The lack of innings pitched is just a big factor to me in offering him a long term big money contract especially paying him $20M+ for this year as some have suggested on here.

Yes, indeed, and part of the reason he has a limited IP sample size was due to injuries. They can be and often are related.

If Crochet was a FA, right now, you don't think he gets $20M a year, despite the lack of prolonged success as a SP'er?

[Old Red]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, indeed, and part of the reason he has a limited IP sample size was due to injuries. They can be and often are related.

If Crochet was a FA, right now, you don't think he gets $20M a year, despite the lack of prolonged success as a SP'er?

It doesn’t matter why he has a limited IP sample size. That doesn’t change the fact that he does. You’re basing that he’s that good after 1 yr, and 146 innings as a starter, and I’m not. That’s the difference. I know you want him to be that good, and I do too, but to me he has to show he can go 35 starts, and 175+ innings as a,starter, and do it again. Houck had a good year last year, and I want to see him do it again, before I offer him a big long term contract. Same with Duran. Good year last year, but can he do it again? That’s why these guys are where they’re at contract wise, because of Arbitration. Skubal is only getting $10M this year after winning the Cy Young.. Time, and process.

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, Old Red said:

It doesn’t matter why he has a limited IP sample size. That doesn’t change the fact that he does. You’re basing that he’s that good after 1 yr, and 146 innings as a starter, and I’m not. That’s the difference. I know you want him to be that good, and I do too, but to me he has to show he can go 35 starts, and 175+ innings as a,starter, and do it again. Houck had a good year last year, and I want to see him do it again, before I offer him a big long term contract. Same with Duran. Good year last year, but can he do it again? That’s why these guys are where they’re at contract wise, because of Arbitration. Skubal is only getting $10M this year after winning the Cy Young.. Time, and process.

It matters if a player has had TJS, and it affected his limited IP up to 2024. That's all I'm saying. It affects what you might want to offer for a contract.

I fully understand why arb guys make less. My suggestion on giving them a little more year 1 and 2 of an extension is designed as a carrot to get them to say year. I give them less in later years, as money up front is "worth more."

The contract I suggested is based on speculation. I get that and have  said it.

Some players who sign during or before arb years often get more than what their projected arbs would bring them, in order to get them to give the team some added control years.

Please answer what you think he'd get as a FA, right now. I know that is not the same as 2 years from now, but I'm curious.

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Old Red said:

It doesn’t matter why he has a limited IP sample size. That doesn’t change the fact that he does. You’re basing that he’s that good after 1 yr, and 146 innings as a starter, and I’m not. That’s the difference. I know you want him to be that good, and I do too, but to me he has to show he can go 35 starts, and 175+ innings as a,starter, and do it again. Houck had a good year last year, and I want to see him do it again, before I offer him a big long term contract. Same with Duran. Good year last year, but can he do it again? That’s why these guys are where they’re at contract wise, because of Arbitration. Skubal is only getting $10M this year after winning the Cy Young.. Time, and process.

That's only because of how the arbitration process works. If Skubal was on the FA market, he'd get WAY more than 10 AAV. 

[notin]

One - and I think big - reason the Sox fall short on extensions is historically they don’t seem to get the process started until the player is a year or two away from free agency.  How often do they attempt to buy out all three arbitration years like other teams do?  Granted, it’s more often done by small market teams, but if you’re pretending to be a small market teams, do it right.

Lester. Bogaerts. Even Sale.  All one year from free agency.  I think the Mookie thing started in 2017 or 2018, making it a rare exception if true. Beyond that, is Whitlock the only time they tried?  Of course they did not have this option with Crochet.

Thsts why I like seeing the change with Anthony, Campbell and Mayer.  The earlier the extension, the less risky.  Sure there will be some Scott Kingery style flops if you extend too early. But the most common result is a younger player paid like a mediocre vet. If Jackson Chourio doesn’t become a star, he’s only getting Max Kepler money, so it really isn’t a big deal if he maintains Max Kepler production.

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That's only because of how the arbitration process works. If Skubal was on the FA market, he'd get WAY more than 10 AAV. 

I get all that but,the FACT is Skubal, and Cro Man are not FA. Time, and process, time, and process.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Scott said the final offer was "almost $100 million more" than the $200 million offer.

That leaves no possibility of being $300 million.

It does leave $299.99 million if we really want to get silly...

Of course for a long time, some folks debated the existence of that $300 mill offer and assumed the Sox stopped at $200mill, especially after Mookie said he never received a $300 mill offer.  Maybe he never did, but it looks like he did get one close to if not in the $290-299 mill range.  Depending on the years, that AAV could be very close to the one he settled on…

[Old Red]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It matters if a player has had TJS, and it affected his limited IP up to 2024. That's all I'm saying. It affects what you might want to offer for a contract.

Please answer what you think he'd get as a FA, right now. I know that is not the same as 2 years from now, but I'm curious.

What he would get as a FA two years from now would depend on what he would do the next two years. He’s not a FA right now, so it’s really irrelevant. Be happy the Red Sox won a bidding war with  other teams. They just did it with suspects instead of with money. Most likely others wouldn’t give up what the Red Sox did.

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Of course for a long time, some folks debated the existence of that $300 mill offer and assumed the Sox stopped at $200mill, especially after Mookie said he never received a $300 mill offer.  Maybe he never did, but it looks like he did get one close to if not in the $290-299 mill range.  Depending on the years, that AAV could be very close to the one he settled on…

Yeah, like I say, it appears the Sox weren't really that far short.

But short they were. 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

One - and I think big - reason the Sox fall short on extensions is historically they don’t seem to get the process started until the player is a year or two away from free agency.  How often do they attempt to buy out all three arbitration years like other teams do?  Granted, it’s more often done by small market teams, but if you’re pretending to be a small market teams, do it right.

Lester. Bogaerts. Even Sale.  All one year from free agency.  I think the Mookie thing started in 2017 or 2018, making it a rare exception if true. Beyond that, is Whitlock the only time they tried?  Of course they did not have this option with Crochet.

Thsts why I like seeing the change with Anthony, Campbell and Mayer.  The earlier the extension, the less risky.  Sure there will be some Scott Kingery style flops if you extend too early. But the most common result is a younger player paid like a mediocre vet. If Jackson Chourio doesn’t become a star, he’s only getting Max Kepler money, so it really isn’t a big deal if he maintains Max Kepler production.

I think another factor is how the Sox determine a player's value, and they seem very firm on whatever amount they come up with. We see it happen with some FAs, where our offer seems way lower, and there was no evidence we ever move beyond the initial offer on many. The Soto talks seemed different, but we are not even sure what sort of offers we made or increased.

I think we feel like we know the precise value of our own players, and it often seems low. We don't seem to budge and often come across as stubborn and ungrateful. We have seen a lot of really good players walk as FAs, and to be honest, I think we have gotten more right than wrong, in terms of knowing when to "move on."

We missed on a few, and some did well (Beltran, Lowe...), after leaving, but maybe was still not a mistake (Damon?) We have also traded some big names away, just in time: Nomar, Manny, while others were just last ditch efforts to get some value back (Lester, Lackey, A Miller) or tag ons to salary dumps (AGon and Beckett tied to Crawford.)

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, like I say, it appears the Sox weren't really that far short.

But short they were. 

Some was perception and how Covid brought the market down, but it does make it sting more, knowing we may not have been too far away from getting a yes.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Old Red said:

What he would get as a FA two years from now would depend on what he would do the next two years. He’s not a FA right now, so it’s really irrelevant. Be happy the Red Sox won a bidding war with  other teams. They just did it with suspects instead of with money. Most likely others wouldn’t give up what the Red Sox did.

Why can't you answer?

Of course the amount might change in 2 years, depending on how he does, but if he's worth $20M, now, I do not think it's absurd to offer him $20M starting 2 years from now and going forward.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Why can't you answer?

Of course the amount might change in 2 years, depending on how he does, but if he's worth $20M, now, I do not think it's absurd to offer him $20M starting 2 years from now and going forward.

I can’t answer, because he’s not a FA.  Who say’s he worth $20M now? Time' and process says NO.I don’t have any problem offering $20M in 2027. I have a problem offering him $20M in 2025, or 2026. I get all you’re saying, but where we differ is I want to see more innings under his belt, before I start offering him the big bucks. Same with Houck, or more AB from Duran to do it again this year.

[mvp 78]

38 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I get all that but,the FACT is Skubal, and Cro Man are not FA. Time, and process, time, and process.

Mumbo, and jumbo. Mumbo, and jumbo. 

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, like I say, it appears the Sox weren't really that far short.

But short they were. 

Is $80M "almost $100M" to the Red Sox back then? We don't know. It may be closer to $80M than to $99.9M. We don't really know and it frankly doesn't matter. They didn't give him enough to stay and that's what they should avoid with potential superstars like Crochet.