Article: The Red Sox Have Begun Extension Talks With Garrett Crochet

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Years of team control remaining and age are huge factors in figuring out a player's worth.

Injury history is big, too.

How much success matters most of all.

These are 4 of the major factors, and I'm not sure anyone else matched even 3 of the four, closely with Crochet. This is a unique situation.

We got a very skilled pitcher with a proven, but very short, stint of success, and a history of injury.

The biggest plus about getting him vs 30-31 year old FA is his age. For that, we paid way less money but gave up 3 of our top 8 prospects. We obviously felt like he was good enough to be our #1-2 SP'er.

He becomes a FA at age 26 and turns 27 (June) that first year beyond our control. That is a great age to be entering the free market. Sure, how well he does over the next 2 years could place him in a range of an AAV of $5M to $45M and one year to 8-9 years, maybe even 10 years.

In some ways, it is a big stab in the dark, but I'd rather hitch my wagon to a 26 year old FA to 6 years than a 30-31 year old one to 6-8 years.

I could be terribly wrong, and we bash the trade and extension for years to come, but we got Price wrong, too, and just about nobody could have been viewed as a surer bet than he was, back then.

Roll the dice and get it done, ASAP!

 

Cro Man is already set at $3.8M this year, and with a Cy Young type year next year his arbitration payment payment may go up to somewhere around $15M.  I’ve seen some suggestions on here of starting Crochet out with $20M+ for those two years. 219 career innings pitched, and only 146 as a starter is not much of a resume to me to just throw out $150M-$200M long term contracts. Yes he has good stuff, but to me he would have to prove more to just throw all this money at him. The Red Sox didn’t pay Lester, Bogey, or Mookie all who not only proven track records, but proven track records in a Red Sox uniform, and all won Championships some more than one. We’ll see where JH, and Brez go with this..

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Ohtani deal plus one brisket sandwich from Buc-ee's each year. 

I think he might take a $210M/8, which starts in 2025, with an opt out after 2029 (after 5 years with Sox) as the lowest he'd go:

$8M 2025

$17M 2026 ($25M for 1 arbs yrs)

$20M 2026

$25M 2027

$25M 2028

$25M 2029 (can opt out after $120M/5 with $90M/3 still on the table at $30M a year.)

[notin]

21 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Ohtani deal plus one brisket sandwich from Buc-ee's each year. 

Chips included?

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

Chips included?

One bag from the wall of jerky. 

[dgalehouse]

7 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Frankly Den you're in a pretty small minority now that puts that much emphasis on wins.

It sounds like you'd need to see another full season out of him before making an offer.

It's a cat and mouse game, because if Crochet has a big 2025 he might just say no to any  extension offers and "bet on himself", as they say.  In that case the Sox would be in a terrible position all of a sudden.

Yes, I am definitely in the minority on these kind of things. The more modern, analytics  driven fans dominate the thinking these days. At least on these types of forums. But I am stubborn. And my batting average is pretty good, although the BABIP is probably not sustainable. 

[Bellhorn04]

If the Red Sox cared about his W-L record I don't think they would have traded 2 of their very best prospects and more for him.

They're already invested in him.  That's what moon's been saying and I agree.  You have to follow through on that kind of investment.  You can't mess around and see him walk after 2 years.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If the Red Sox cared about his W-L record I don't think they would have traded 2 of their very best prospects and more for him.

They're already invested in him.  That's what moon's been saying and I agree.  You have to follow through on that kind of investment.  You can't mess around and see him walk after 2 years.

It's not really because they traded the world to get him, but in doing so, we finally showed someone we want him and think a lot of him. Either we believe in him, or we don't.

I fully realize, someone, somehow, somewhere we also "believed in" Yoshida, Story and others. That's reason enough to have serious doubts, but we aren't going to outbid anyone for the next Soto (Vladdy) or Burnes/Fried/Yamo. THis is it. I don't see a viable plan B for these cheapskates.

We aren't talking Price money adjusted for inflation. We aren't talking a 30-31 year old pitcher demanding 7+ years. Yes, we are talking about a guy with very limited proof of greatness or durability, but at his age, I'm liking this risk more than others I have seen.

Yamo was a little younger and had no injury history, but zero ML success. Sometimes you just roll the dice on a kid with talent. To me, this is that time- more so out of our lack of options and a window that should be opening wide, starting now.

[notin]

15 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If the Red Sox cared about his W-L record I don't think they would have traded 2 of their very best prospects and more for him.

They're already invested in him.  That's what moon's been saying and I agree.  You have to follow through on that kind of investment.  You can't mess around and see him walk after 2 years.

I don’t think teams value their prospects similarly to what fans do.   I’m hesitant to say they’re heavily invested in him.  They paid a lot, but what they gave up can be considered fair for two years.

Now the goal is to keep him around, but obviously Boston (or any team) wants to do out for as little as possible…

[Old Red]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's not really because they traded the world to get him, but in doing so, we finally showed someone we want him and think a lot of him. Either we believe in him, or we don't.

I fully realize, someone, somehow, somewhere we also "believed in" Yoshida, Story and others. That's reason enough to have serious doubts, but we aren't going to outbid anyone for the next Soto (Vladdy) or Burnes/Fried/Yamo. THis is it. I don't see a viable plan B for these cheapskates.

We aren't talking Price money adjusted for inflation. We aren't talking a 30-31 year old pitcher demanding 7+ years. Yes, we are talking about a guy with very limited proof of greatness or durability, but at his age, I'm liking this risk more than others I have seen.

Yamo was a little younger and had no injury history, but zero ML success. Sometimes you just roll the dice on a kid with talent. To me, this is that time- more so out of our lack of options and a window that should be opening wide, starting now.

Trading some suspects is not trading the world IMO. Trading Mookie was trading the world. I’m sure the Red Sox want, and have wanted lots of players, but they just didn’t want to, or couldn’t outbid the big heavy spenders. I’ve said for the last two years the Red Sox would have to trade some suspects to get any good pitching, and they traded some. They may have to trade even more. It’s not the end of the world, and these suspects most likely aren’t all going to live up to all the hype either.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Trading some suspects is not trading the world IMO. Trading Mookie was trading the world. I’m sure the Red Sox want, and have wanted lots of players, but they just didn’t want to, or couldn’t outbid the big heavy spenders. I’ve said for the last two years the Red Sox would have to trade some suspects to get any good pitching, and they traded some. They may have to trade even more. It’s not the end of the world, and these suspects most likely aren’t all going to live up to all the hype either.

The "world" was hyperbole. Giving up 3 of your top 8 prospects is a lot, even for a lower ranked farm system, but from a top heavy farm like ours, that was a lot. We gave up our last two top picks.

We all know how you view "suspects," and your position has merit. They may all end up sucking, but I doubt we hear the end of it, if Crochet is so-so and one or two of those prospects go on to be really good.

The fact is, we gave up a of of value for him and not someone else. Speculative value is still value, as it showed by us landing Crochet by spending it.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The "world" was hyperbole. Giving up 3 of your top 8 prospects is a lot, even for a lower ranked farm system, but from a top heavy farm like ours, that was a lot. We gave up our last two top picks.

We all know how you view "suspects," and your position has merit. They may all end up sucking, but I doubt we hear the end of it, if Crochet is so-so and one or two of those prospects go on to be really good.

The fact is, we gave up a of of value for him and not someone else. Speculative value is still value, as it showed by us landing Crochet by spending it.

I’m sure the Red Sox are trying to hammer out a deal for the Cro Man, and something most likely will get done, but I’m not so sure the Red Sox are All in, and in a whatever it takes opinion to get it done.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I don’t think teams value their prospects similarly to what fans do.   I’m hesitant to say they’re heavily invested in him.  They paid a lot, but what they gave up can be considered fair for two years.

Now the goal is to keep him around, but obviously Boston (or any team) wants to do out for as little as possible…

The Sox have been undisputed kings of baseball at making offers that fall short the last several years.  Teams are very different in how they approach these things.  The Sox operate nothing like the Dodgers, Mets or Yankees these days.   

[Old Red]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Sox have been undisputed kings of baseball at making offers that fall short the last several years.  Teams are very different in how they approach these things.  The Sox operate nothing like the Dodgers, Mets or Yankees these days.   

Like I said yesterday the Red Sox wouldn’t pay Lester, Bogey, or Mookie ALl had contributed to WS championship teams, and Cro Man’s resume whatever little there is of it doesn’t warrant at this point the sky’s the limit IMO.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I’m sure the Red Sox are trying to hammer out a deal for the Cro Man, and something most likely will get done, but I’m not so sure the Red Sox are All in, and in a whatever it takes opinion to get it done.

Agreed. They will not pay some absurd amount, just because he demands it and threatens to walk after 2, but I do think this may be a case where we overstep our preset notion of value to make sure we land him for more year.

I see this as a higher priority than Soto, fried, Burnes and other big fish we checked in on, and more importantly, this should not cost the same money those big fish ended up costing.

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Like I said yesterday the Red Sox wouldn’t pay Lester, Bogey, or Mookie ALl had contributed to WS championship teams, and Cro Man’s resume whatever little there is of it doesn’t warrant at this point the sky’s the limit IMO.

Well, they probably won't offer enough and Cro Man will be gone after 2026.

But hey, maybe we can trade him at the 2026 deadline instead.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Well, they probably won't offer enough and Cro Man will be gone after 2026.

But hey, maybe we can trade him at the 2026 deadline instead.

I said that at the time of the trade that he may only be here for 1.5 yrs. Right now the Red Sox are haggling over$.5M with Duran, which isn’t a good sign either.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

I said that at the time of the trade that he may only be here for 1.5 yrs. Right now the Red Sox are haggling over$.5M with Duran, which isn’t a good sign either.

There are NO good signs as far as the Sox operating like a serious big market team again.

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed. They will not pay some absurd amount, just because he demands it and threatens to walk after 2, but I do think this may be a case where we overstep our preset notion of value to make sure we land him for more year.

I see this as a higher priority than Soto, fried, Burnes and other big fish we checked in on, and more importantly, this should not cost the same money those big fish ended up costing.

Something will get done IMO, but most likely with an opt-out, which won’t be for as long as most on here will like.

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Well, they probably won't offer enough and Cro Man will be gone after 2026.

But hey, maybe we can trade him at the 2026 deadline instead.

Don't humor him please. 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Something will get done IMO, but most likely with an opt-out, which won’t be for as long as most on here will like.

That's what I think, and even 1 more year is better than none, within reason.

The comp with Betts, Bogey and Lester is a fair one, but those guys wanted big money, as they were proven stars. I do not think Crochet will ask for their money, adjusted for inflation, so maybe JH will be more likely to sign off on an overpay that is not as hefty as the FA market demands.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That's what I think, and even 1 more year is better than none, within reason.

The comp with Betts, Bogey and Lester is a fair one, but those guys wanted big money, as they were proven stars. I do not think Crochet will ask for their money, adjusted for inflation, so maybe JH will be more likely to sign off on an overpay that is not as hefty as the FA market demands.

I don’t believe Lester was asking for big money, and no one knows what Bogey would have taken if offered something earlier than becoming a FA. Mookie was a whole different story.

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Don't humor him please. 

🙈🤭🤫.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

35 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Well, they probably won't offer enough and Cro Man will be gone after 2026.

But hey, maybe we can trade him at the 2026 deadline instead.

Hopefully, by then, we won't have posters insisting that we can trade him for prospects -- and then, still sign him the following winter.

The only signing this ownership will be doing is waving bu-bye.

[Bellhorn04]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That's what I think, and even 1 more year is better than none, within reason.

The comp with Betts, Bogey and Lester is a fair one, but those guys wanted big money, as they were proven stars. I do not think Crochet will ask for their money, adjusted for inflation, so maybe JH will be more likely to sign off on an overpay that is not as hefty as the FA market demands.

Bogey was not the same as Lester and Betts.  Bogey did get a reasonable extension that kept him around 3 more years.  He just happened to cash in on his opt out.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I don’t believe Lester was asking for big money, and no one knows what Bogey would have taken if offered something earlier than becoming a FA. Mookie was a whole different story.

Lester did indicate he'd take a hometown discount, but even so, the money back then was a lot- obviously more than JH was willing to give.

I'm still not so sure paying Bogey "whatever he would have taken" will prove to be worth it.

Yes, Mookie was in a class by himself.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Bogey was not the same as Lester and Betts.  Bogey did get a reasonable extension that kept him around 3 more years.  He just happened to cash in on his opt out.

Yes, and maybe Bogey is the best comp for Crochet, despite the positional difference. There was a difference, there, too. Bogey signed at the start of his final arb year in 2019. Crochet has 2 arbs left.

That $20M x 3 (before opt out) was a "team friendly" deal, IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Yes, and maybe Bogey is the best comp for Crochet, despite the positional difference. There was a difference, there, too. Bogey signed at the start of his final arb year in 2019. Crochet has 2 arbs left.

That $20M x 3 (before opt out) was a "team friendly" deal, IMO.

That was the classic "good for both sides" deal, as it turned out.

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Lester did indicate he'd take a hometown discount, but even so, the money back then was a lot- obviously more than JH was willing to give.

I'm still not so sure paying Bogey "whatever he would have taken" will prove to be worth it.

Yes, Mookie was in a class by himself.

I agree that locking Bogey long term would not have been worth it long term. 

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, and maybe Bogey is the best comp for Crochet, despite the positional difference. There was a difference, there, too. Bogey signed at the start of his final arb year in 2019. Crochet has 2 arbs left.

That $20M x 3 (before opt out) was a "team friendly" deal, IMO.

Bogey already had a long resume, and had won two championships with the Red Sox when he signed while Cro Man doesn’t have much of a resume at all.

[notin]

52 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Sox have been undisputed kings of baseball at making offers that fall short the last several years.  Teams are very different in how they approach these things.  The Sox operate nothing like the Dodgers, Mets or Yankees these days.   

A little hyperbolic.

Pete Alonso is a free agent right now because the Mets couldn’t extend him.  And Aaron Judge was a free agent last year because the Yankees didn’t offer him what he felt was fair value.  And of course Juan Soto left the Bronx without a extension.

Yes the Sox tendered poor offers to Mookie, Lester and Bogaerts.  But Lester was 10 years and 4 GMs ago.  The Mookie situation has been dredged over and Zack Short even spoke out about how it wasn’t so straightforward as we fans want it to be.  Plus the Sox did extend Bogaerts once and did extend Sale.  Point being, this does happen with other teams. Heck the only reason the Sox have Crochet is another team didn’t extend him…