Article: A Plea For The Red Sox To Sign Juan Soto

[vjcsmoke]

Soto is a generational player and talent. I would offer 12/630. That's 52.5m a year. That gives him the length he wants and a healthy annual salary. If the Yankees are going to beat us to him at least make them pay through the nose for the privilege.

To me Soto has the feel of Alex Rodriguez. Whoever lands him will dominate the division for a decade and win multiple World Series.  I don't think our ownership has the balls to put their wallets where their mouths are.

[Soxlover]

Nuff said.

[Bellhorn04]

9 hours ago, vjcsmoke said:

Soto is a generational player and talent. I would offer 12/630. That's 52.5m a year. That gives him the length he wants and a healthy annual salary. If the Yankees are going to beat us to him at least make them pay through the nose for the privilege.

To me Soto has the feel of Alex Rodriguez. Whoever lands him will dominate the division for a decade and win multiple World Series.  I don't think our ownership has the balls to put their wallets where their mouths are.

Alex Rodriguez?  The Yanks only won one World Series with him and he was generally regarded as a disappointment or worse by Yankee fans.  And Red Sox fans have always been pretty happy that trade didn't go through.  

[Hugh2]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Alex Rodriguez?  The Yanks only won one World Series with him and he was generally regarded as a disappointment or worse by Yankee fans.  And Red Sox fans have always been pretty happy that trade didn't go through.  

And for the first 5 years after he arrived in NY he was the best player in the game with 3 MVPs and two more elite seasons. He was fine for 8 years.  

Arod was also 2 years older when he started playing in NY, you’d be getting more of Soto in his prime.

hes going to get an opt out and only be somewhere for 3-5 years anyways so who cares. If Arod sucked when he was 37

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

19 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Alex Rodriguez?  The Yanks only won one World Series with him and he was generally regarded as a disappointment or worse by Yankee fans.  And Red Sox fans have always been pretty happy that trade didn't go through.  

ARod should've been more highly regarded. When he joined New York, he deferred to royalty by moving to third base, even though he was clearly the better shortstop: through 2003, 9.4 dWAR vs. -2.0 dWAR for Jetes. Plus, ARod won three AL MVPs, two as a Yankee, to Jeter's zero.

But Alex was a tool, slapping the ball out of Bronson Arroyo's glove, yelling "I got it!" as a baserunner to distract infielders, sticking needles in his butt, getting suspended. Ya, that.

For Yankees fans, it always comes down to the perception of ARod being unclutch -- which is unfortunately more prevalent than the other way around in sports since only one team wins the last game (in baseball, that's what, 25 guys out of 750)...

... and Jeter has five rings, and will forever be the hero who threw out Giambi with a backhand flip, and face-whomped into a chair, after catching a pop-up and then running 25 yards before diving into the stands.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

And for the first 5 years after he arrived in NY he was the best player in the game with 3 MVPs and two more elite seasons. He was fine for 8 years.  

Arod was also 2 years older when he started playing in NY, you’d be getting more of Soto in his prime.

hes going to get an opt out and only be somewhere for 3-5 years anyways so who cares. If Arod sucked when he was 37

In spite of his obvious talent, I don't think ARod is the ideal comp for most Sox fans when they're thinking about Soto.

 

[Bellhorn04]

55 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

... and Jeter has five rings, and will forever be the hero who threw out Giambi with a backhand flip, and face-whomped into a chair, after catching a pop-up and then running 25 yards before diving into the stands.

 

 

Sox fans mock Jeter for dramatizing on that play.  Yankee fans mock Schilling for putting fake blood on his sock.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Sox fans mock Jeter for dramatizing on that play.  Yankee fans mock Schilling for putting fake blood on his sock.

 

That '04 Yankee team never gets mocked enough, though, for not bunting -- even one time -- on a crippled pitcher, at home, in front of a rabid crowd, with only a trip to the World Series on the line. At least they chose an honorable choke.

[Bellhorn04]

I never really look at '04 as the Yankees choking.  I'll settle for it being an incredible comeback assisted by some remarkable good fortune, as if the baseball Gods finally decided to take mercy and pay the Sox back for all the bad breaks and dumb moves over the years.

Game 4

Rivera blowing the save

Game 5

a) Tito leaving Pedro in too long, almost Grady-esque in letting Pedro face Matsui with the score 4-2 Yankees and 2 men on.  Matsui smokes a sinking liner that Nixon makes the catch of his life on.

b)Torre makes the worst move of his career, bringing in Gordon instead of Rivera in the 8th.  Rivera would end up pitching 2 innings anyway.

c) Tony Clark's ground-rule double that would have scored Sierra if it didn't bounce over the fence.

d) The adventures of Wakefield and Varitek.   

Game 6

a) Schilling's amazing recovery or whatever you want to call it. 

b) The umps getting it right twice without replays.

 

[Randy Red Sox]

14 hours ago, vjcsmoke said:

Soto is a generational player and talent. I would offer 12/630. That's 52.5m a year. That gives him the length he wants and a healthy annual salary. If the Yankees are going to beat us to him at least make them pay through the nose for the privilege.

To me Soto has the feel of Alex Rodriguez. Whoever lands him will dominate the division for a decade and win multiple World Series.  I don't think our ownership has the balls to put their wallets where their mouths are.

at 62 million/yr for 12 yrs with Roman Anthony on the horizon.  I sure as hell hope NOT

[Hugh2]

4 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

In spite of his obvious talent, I don't think ARod is the ideal comp for most Sox fans when they're thinking about Soto.

 

Fine by me

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

at 62 million/yr for 12 yrs with Roman Anthony on the horizon.  I sure as hell hope NOT

Honestly, why not just do 675/15? Get the AVV down to 45, and he’s likely going to have an opt out around year 4-5 anyways.  

[vjcsmoke]

If you really want to go there another comp for Soto is Big Papi. They are both from Dominican Republic, they carry big bats, and they aren't afraid to be big time personalities in the clubhouse and in front of the press.

I know baseball economics has gone crazy, but you gotta pay what it takes to sign generational players when they become available.

This would help a LOT to get over Mookie Betts fiasco.

And no, I'm not skipping adding a generational talent to our roster in the hopes that a green kid playing in Worcester might take the step up to the big team in a year or two. Roman Anthony looks nice but he's not a Soto. He could turn somewhere north or south of Ellsbury, Benintendi, or Josh Reddick for all we know.

[Soxlover]

Take away the “Manny being Manny” aspect of the comp, I see Soto as a LH’d version of Ramirez.

[drewski6]

14 hours ago, vjcsmoke said:

If you really want to go there another comp for Soto is Big Papi. They are both from Dominican Republic, they carry big bats, and they aren't afraid to be big time personalities in the clubhouse and in front of the press.

I know baseball economics has gone crazy, but you gotta pay what it takes to sign generational players when they become available.

This would help a LOT to get over Mookie Betts fiasco.

And no, I'm not skipping adding a generational talent to our roster in the hopes that a green kid playing in Worcester might take the step up to the big team in a year or two. Roman Anthony looks nice but he's not a Soto. He could turn somewhere north or south of Ellsbury, Benintendi, or Josh Reddick for all we know.

Agreed with all.  Just to add : another possibility is that both Soto and Anthony have great careers for the sox. You want Soto regardless of whether Anthony becomes a superstar.

[drewski6]

Hes a smiling lefty with a larger than life bat, Ortiz is the comp.

[moonslav59]

On 11/24/2024 at 8:05 AM, Hugh2 said:

And for the first 5 years after he arrived in NY he was the best player in the game with 3 MVPs and two more elite seasons. He was fine for 8 years.  

Arod was also 2 years older when he started playing in NY, you’d be getting more of Soto in his prime.

hes going to get an opt out and only be somewhere for 3-5 years anyways so who cares. If Arod sucked when he was 37

In the context of signing Soto to 12-14 years, I do not think  the ARod comp is a good one. I'd hope we get more than 5-6 really good years.

[vjcsmoke]

So the Red Sox have officially made an offer to Juan Soto as per NESN article: https://nesn.com/2024/11/red-sox-rumors-when-boston-submitted-contract-offer-for-juan-soto/

Fingers crossed that it was a generous and competitive package instead of the usual penny pinching, lowball offers the Red Sox have been giving free agents in previous years.

Now we'll have to wait and see how this develops. I'm sure if the bid from the Red Sox was LOW, the news will eventually leak.

[moonslav59]

It's been so long on seeing us make the best offer on a real stud.

I'll believe it, when I see it.

[drewski6]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's been so long on seeing us make the best offer on a real stud.

I'll believe it, when I see it.

I believe they'll make a strong offer, but it wont be a blank check, and it may be a blank check from the Mets.  Should that be the case, first of all, bummer.  Second of all, at least its then easier to justify getting one (or maybe 2) of the top 3 FA starters.  

Personally, I think Id rather get 1 of Burnes, Fried, Snell and get another starter via trade (than 2 of the aforementioned 3).  I do think that if they miss on Soto, they will get a potent bat somewhere (whether it be Hernandez, Adames, Bregman, Guerrero, Alonso)....Someone (along with a top 3 starter).

Or at least make "strong" offers. And I dont mean "make an offer to say you did" (like our half-hearted attempt to get Teoscar last year). I mean a real effort, but you dont know where the chips will fall.

Thats obvs worst case (and not in small part because it would be a continuation of a trend) - falling just short with competitive offers but falling short and falling back to the mid-tiers on inflated AAVs because you fell short on the true difference makers.

[drewski6]

And I also think that if they get Soto, they'll still try to get one of the top 3 FA starters. But try being the operative word.  But I mean literally try and not pretend to try for PR

[drewski6]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

In the context of signing Soto to 12-14 years, I do not think  the ARod comp is a good one. I'd hope we get more than 5-6 really good years.

In the context of giving Soto 12-14 years, do you agree (at least in small part) that whatever we give Soto (lets say 50M per) will not be the top of the market in year 10?

If Soto gets 50m in 2024, I predict that by 2030 - there will be 5-10 position players making 55M+ and by 2034 (deep into the deal) 50m per will be well above avg for a starting position player but no longer considered superstar money.

I dont think inflation stops inflating next 10 years.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If the Red Sox miss on Soto, they can pivot two ways to still have an offseason that can make them contenders, according to Russell Dorsey on MLB Network: sign Teoscar and a pitcher, and trade for another pitcher.

1. sign Fried to top the rotation, trade for Gavin Williams to close... or

2. trade for Crochet, sign Tanner Scott.

None of those moves involves improving the defense, so I'd have to choose Option 2 and recruit the strikeout pitchers. Fried is more of a pitch-to-contact guy -- which is scary in Boston.

 

[mvp 78]

On 11/24/2024 at 10:33 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

Sox fans mock Jeter for dramatizing on that play.  Yankee fans mock Schilling for putting fake blood on his sock.

 

Thanks to Mirabelli. 

[Hugh2]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

In the context of signing Soto to 12-14 years, I do not think  the ARod comp is a good one. I'd hope we get more than 5-6 really good years.

Yeah, I wasn't the one who made that comp, I think the comp was made in that being a good player reaching fa when he was young.  Not my first choice, but even then if you did sign Arod starting at his age 26 season and used him as a comp.

 

But I'll roll with the Arod comp just because someone threw it out there.  ARod gave you 7 elite seasons, not just really good but elite.  Followed by 4 above average and put up 68.7 FWar his next 11 seasons.  Even his last full season he put up a 2.5 at age 39, when they finally just DH'd him more because before that injury was really starting to get to him.  That's also starting at his age 26 season, which was actually 2 years before he got paid, you're getting 2 more years of Soto in his prime and by all accounts is 10X the human being Arod is. 

[mvp 78]

I think the Sox offer is probably 4th out of the 5 offers. I think they made an offer just to show the fanbase that they "are back." I don't entirely believe the spending will actually increase all that much. Maybe they sign one TOTR starter like Fried or Burnes and call it a day. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think the Sox offer is probably 4th out of the 5 offers. I think they made an offer just to show the fanbase that they "are back." I don't entirely believe the spending will actually increase all that much. Maybe they sign one TOTR starter like Fried or Burnes and call it a day. 

They've certainly earned the skepticism.  

[mvp 78]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

Yeah, I wasn't the one who made that comp, I think the comp was made in that being a good player reaching fa when he was young.  Not my first choice, but even then if you did sign Arod starting at his age 26 season and used him as a comp.

 

But I'll roll with the Arod comp just because someone threw it out there.  ARod gave you 7 elite seasons, not just really good but elite.  Followed by 4 above average and put up 68.7 FWar his next 11 seasons.  Even his last full season he put up a 2.5 at age 39, when they finally just DH'd him more because before that injury was really starting to get to him.  That's also starting at his age 26 season, which was actually 2 years before he got paid, you're getting 2 more years of Soto in his prime and by all accounts is 10X the human being Arod is. 

The first ARod contract was a great deal. He was an all-time talent and hit the crap out of the ball from 01-09. It's a shame they moved him off of SS for Jeter. ARod ended his career with 117 bWAR! He's second only to Honus Wagner in SS bWAR. He had a career 140 OPS+, won 3 MVPs and was top 5 in MVP voting 6 times! That's just video game numbers. 

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think the Sox offer is probably 4th out of the 5 offers. I think they made an offer just to show the fanbase that they "are back." I don't entirely believe the spending will actually increase all that much. Maybe they sign one TOTR starter like Fried or Burnes and call it a day. 

I really don't think anyone is going to think they're "back" until they actually sign someone.  We know it, they know it, and then know we know it.  And I know that they know that we know it. 

No one is buying the bull s***. 

I will say this.  The team has repeated the mantra over the years that they would spend when they have a talented young core to build around.  For the past 5 years they've gone from bloated aging payroll with zero farm, to s***** team with zero farm, to s***** team with a good farm, to .500 ball club loaded with budding young talent, more on the way and payroll space. 

Even when they signed Devers, they said "this is the type of guy we want to sign" after failing to retain Bogaerts.  "type of guy" is young.  They have a young team and the opportunity to go after Soto, I think it's real and the crazy thing is if they do go out and spend this year, technically they will of ended up doing exactly what they've said they would do all along. 

The only thing is, even if they're 100% for real and ready to spend and build this team into a winner again.  That doesn't make them the favorite, at best that puts them on par with NY/NY/LA.  So even then I'd say their odds to land Soto are 25% at best. 

[Bellhorn04]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The first ARod contract was a great deal. He was an all-time talent and hit the crap out of the ball from 01-09. It's a shame they moved him off of SS for Jeter. ARod ended his career with 117 bWAR! He's second only to Honus Wagner in SS bWAR. He had a career 140 OPS+, won 3 MVPs and was top 5 in MVP voting 6 times! That's just video game numbers. 

Yeah, pretty incredible player, image largely undone by his steroid use, weird personality and number of postseason flops.  His 2009 postseason should have put it all to rest, but that too is tainted by steroid suspicions.