A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

With all the talk of how many, if any, of the big three prospects break camp with the big club (added to the 40 and 26,) it's interesting to see discussion about Thompson and or Eaton being added, instead or maybe with 1 or two.

I see two openings by way of adding Murphy and Perales to the 60 Day IL. I doubt Crawford or Bello will need 60 days, now will Yoshida and Abreu. Other DFA candidates might be Sogard. We could DFA Sabol, but would have to have a plan to DFA someone else, if we ever needed to add a catcher, quickly due to an injury to Wong or Narvaez.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

With all the talk of how many, if any, of the big three prospects break camp with the big club (added to the 40 and 26,) it's interesting to see discussion about Thompson and or Eaton being added, instead or maybe with 1 or two.

I see two openings by way of adding Murphy and Perales to the 60 Day IL. I doubt Crawford or Bello will need 60 days, now will Yoshida and Abreu. Other DFA candidates might be Sogard. We could DFA Sabol, but would have to have a plan to DFA someone else, if we ever needed to add a catcher, quickly due to an injury to Wong or Narvaez.

Seby Zavala is another option. Yesterday, Braves stole on Wong/Fitts, but Zavala gunned down Alvarez with a perfect throw that Campbell slapped right to the ground next to the bag (which shows he also knows what he's doing). One pitch earlier, Zavala almost picked him off first, throwing behind the runner.

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Seby Zavala is another option. Yesterday, Braves stole on Wong/Fitts, but Zavala gunned down Alvarez with a perfect throw that Campbell slapped right to the ground next to the bag (which shows he also knows what he's doing). One pitch earlier, Zavala almost picked him off first, throwing behind the runner.

Why add Zavala now if you can just wait until later when/if you need to call him up? 

[mvp 78]

46 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

With all the talk of how many, if any, of the big three prospects break camp with the big club (added to the 40 and 26,) it's interesting to see discussion about Thompson and or Eaton being added, instead or maybe with 1 or two.

I see two openings by way of adding Murphy and Perales to the 60 Day IL. I doubt Crawford or Bello will need 60 days, now will Yoshida and Abreu. Other DFA candidates might be Sogard. We could DFA Sabol, but would have to have a plan to DFA someone else, if we ever needed to add a catcher, quickly due to an injury to Wong or Narvaez.

If the Red Sox were a serious team, they would never add Thompson AND Eaton to start the year. C'mon man. 

[notin]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If the Red Sox were a serious team, they would never add Thompson AND Eaton to start the year. C'mon man. 

Per MLBTR, the Sox apparently do want RHH OF for some depth.  I could see either Eaton or Thompson getting the nod.  But both?  Not likely without serious injury issues…

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If the Red Sox were a serious team, they would never add Thompson AND Eaton to start the year. C'mon man. 

Guys like them are added all the time. We could have 2-3 slots without any major losses. If we choose one prospect- maybe Anthony to start for Abreu, we could have 1-2 slots for guys like them.

I still think adding a year of control for the top 3 is a priority that make tip the balance on adding a journeyman type like Thompson or Eaton- assuming they keep raking all spring long.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Per MLBTR, the Sox apparently do want RHH OF for some depth.  I could see either Eaton or Thompson getting the nod.  But both?  Not likely without serious injury issues…

Eaton has an MLB career 549 OPS. You guys need to know what you're getting if you're putting these dudes on the roster. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Guys like them are added all the time. We could have 2-3 slots without any major losses. If we choose one prospect- maybe Anthony to start for Abreu, we could have 1-2 slots for guys like them.

I still think adding a year of control for the top 3 is a priority that make tip the balance on adding a journeyman type like Thompson or Eaton- assuming they keep raking all spring long.

You're going to need to show your work with that one. What is the 13 man offensive unit look like with Anthony, Eaton AND Thompson? 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Per MLBTR, the Sox apparently do want RHH OF for some depth.  I could see either Eaton or Thompson getting the nod.  But both?  Not likely without serious injury issues…

Yes, both would mean someone gets injured.

Romy is a RHB. Why boot him from the 26?

Are these guys under any control by the Soxc, or can they become FAs, if they dont make the 40 after spring.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Eaton has an MLB career 549 OPS. You guys need to know what you're getting if you're putting these dudes on the roster. 

I don't disagree, but no player ever repeats his career OPS, exactly the same going forward.

Players make adjustments and can and have gotten better.

My reasoning is more about wanting the kids to get an added year or control and to give the team as many viable options in their system as possible, early in the season. Keeping the kids off the 40 adds options, even if borderline viable.

[Larry Cook]

If we add Thompson, then when Abreau gets healthy, it will be interesting to see if Thompson is out hitting refsynder!!!!!

either way, Anthony should start in Worcester! 

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

If we add Thompson, then when Abreau gets healthy, it will be interesting to see if Thompson is out hitting refsynder!!!!!

Don't count on it. Ref has been a top 15 batter vs LHPs over the last 3 years- a much larger sample size and vs actual ML pitchers in actual ML games.

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

If we add Thompson, then when Abreau gets healthy, it will be interesting to see if Thompson is out hitting refsynder!!!!!

either way, Anthony should start in Worcester! 

If Anthony is on the Opening Day roster, there is no room for a guy like Trayce Thompson. I think Anthony starts in AAA due to the plague. 

[mvp 78]

Trayce Thompson is OLDER than Rob Refsnyder.

[moonslav59]

Neither Thompson nor Anthony are on or need to be on the 40 to stay in the Sox system, but one might be added for opening day, We can place Murphy or Perales on the 60 Day IL to make room for one. I'm pretty certain both will not be added.

[drewski6]

23 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Eaton has an MLB career 549 OPS. You guys need to know what you're getting if you're putting these dudes on the roster. 

Yeah a month or two bridge to an extra year of control for the prospect Eaton/Thompson is making the team over

[drewski6]

We're talking about a warm body stopgap, nothing more

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Trayce Thompson is OLDER than Rob Refsnyder.

TNT (middle name is Nikolas) can still run faster than Ref and Masa. 

If Abreu is still deemed unready, who is going to cover RF in Texas?

Maybe another guy already on the 40 who's a good outfielder: The Password.

[moonslav59]

We have 3 guys who can be added to the 60 Day IL to make additions to the 40 by opening day: Murphy, Perales and Penrod.

As of now, assuming Abreu starts the season on the 10 Day IL, and no prospect makes the 40 or 26, our bench might be Yoshida, Romy, Narvaez and Grissom. That leaves just Sabol (C) and Sogard (UT) as position players on the 40 in AAA. (Jh Garcia will likely start in AA.) 

We will almost certainly be adding 2-3 position players to the 40 for opening day and 1-2 might make the 26. I doubt any prospect is added to the 40 and not the 26, so that is one key component to who is chosen. Team years of control might be the deciding factor, if it's a close call.

I could see us adding Thompson to the 40 and 26, and starting Grissom in AAA. We may hold off adding others to the 40 (and maybe 26) until we know more, but Eaton's ability to play multiple positions might give him the nod. I doubt Toro is an option.

I'd love to see a prospect or two make the 26, but it's looking less likely, unless a new injury occurs.

[Hitch]

For differing reasons all of the big 3 could start in AAA and nobody would question the decision. For that reason, I wouldn't be shocked to see a number of odd choices on our early roster to get us to another year of control on each. 

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, Hitch said:

For differing reasons all of the big 3 could start in AAA and nobody would question the decision. For that reason, I wouldn't be shocked to see a number of odd choices on our early roster to get us to another year of control on each. 

Agreed. I've thought all along the extra year of control would be a factor, but not the overriding one. None have clearly made a case for being a starter on day one. Mayer has played well, but our SS is healthy and playing well, this spring. There is still time for things to change the choices, one way or another, but to me, it looks like all 3 start in AAA.

The bench will be:
Narvaez, Refsnyder, Yoshida and Romy (DHam starts at 2B.)

If Abreu is on the IL, I think Thompson might be #26.

 

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

TNT (middle name is Nikolas) can still run faster than Ref and Masa. 

If Abreu is still deemed unready, who is going to cover RF in Texas?

Maybe another guy already on the 40 who's a good outfielder: The Password.

Rafaela RF

Duran CF

[Larry Cook]

On 3/11/2025 at 11:39 AM, moonslav59 said:

Agreed. I've thought all along the extra year of control would be a factor, but not the overriding one. None have clearly made a case for being a starter on day one. Mayer has played well, but our SS is healthy and playing well, this spring. There is still time for things to change the choices, one way or another, but to me, it looks like all 3 start in AAA.

The bench will be:
Narvaez, Refsnyder, Yoshida and Romy (DHam starts at 2B.)

If Abreu is on the IL, I think Thompson might be #26.

 

I think sogard might have a sneaky chance to start on the 26. 

[notin]

22 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I think sogard might have a sneaky chance to start on the 26. 

Only if Hamilton/Romy wins the 2b job over Campbell, Mayer and Grissom.

He is helped by being on the 40 man but hurt by a lack of outfield experience…

[notin]

On 3/11/2025 at 12:02 PM, mvp 78 said:

Rafaela RF

Duran CF

Yoshida/Refsnyder in LF?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

30 minutes ago, notin said:

Yoshida/Refsnyder in LF?

Anthony's not ready yet to hit more homers at farther distances than both of them combined?

Lost 10 pounds from the plague and still hit one out of camera range last night.

[moonslav59]

On 3/11/2025 at 12:02 PM, mvp 78 said:

Rafaela RF

Duran CF

That's what I've been saying for months.

When Abreu is healthy, it could be Abreu-Rafaela in a RF platoon, with Rafaela playing CF v RHPs. Duran plays CF v LHPs, and Resnyder plays LF vs lefties.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

 

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Anthony's not ready yet to hit more homers at farther distances than both of them combined?

Lost 10 pounds from the plague and still hit one out of camera range last night.

When did I say any of the 3 were not ready?

I said I think we may very well decide to keep all 3 off the 40 on opening day.

I don't make the choices.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Yoshida/Refsnyder in LF?

If Devers is on the IL, no, but with Devers at DH and Abreu on the IL, this very well could come true.

I certainly see Ref in LF vs LHPs, no matter what else happens, as long as DH is filled by Devers.

It's not ideal, but with no Abreu, I'd rather go with them than Thompson.

Anthony is another case, altogether. I'm fine with him as our starting RF'er day 1, but I'm not sure Brez & Co. agree.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

When did I say any of the 3 were not ready?

I said I think we may very well decide to keep all 3 off the 40 on opening day.

I don't make the choices.

Sorry, I thought I was replying to notin with a notin-type response.

But I do have to wonder about the various posts suggesting Rafaela in RF. Cora has said multiple times he wants Ceddanne in CF as much as possible, and hasn't tried him in right in any Grapefruit games (as far as I can research). 

I keep thinking back to last decade, when the Sox moved a future Hall-of-Famer to RF to make room for Jackie Bradley Jr. -- the better centerfielder.

Meanwhile, Cora has played Duran in RF a little in the past, and Jarren has shown a lot of improvement defensively since then, so who knows. He doesn't have the arm for it, and he's no Mookie, but Betts can't lift as many bowling balls as Duran, either.

Maybe they're just counting on an Abreu comeback by April, or Anthony by May.