A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

On 3/10/2025 at 9:19 AM, mvp 78 said:

Eaton has an MLB career 549 OPS. You guys need to know what you're getting if you're putting these dudes on the roster. 

Someone has to bat ninth.

And hey, when you’re just looking for a short term injury replacement, getting a guy who can field his position (and throw) might work for a stopgap.

 

Plus, per StatCast, Eaton runs faster than David Hamilton and throws almost as hard as Aroldis Chapman.  We got nowhere for that skill set?

[Larry Cook]

Since abreau and yoshida will likely start the year on the DL, we have Duran, rafeala and refsynder left on the 26! 
 

we have 3 players likely to be placed on the 60 day DL, so we could add Anthony to the 40 man roster. But…

Some here think Anthony is not ready to start the year in Boston. 
Some here think Anthony is ready to start the year in Boston. 
 

Regardless, whoever the new outfielder that starts the year in Boston is, he is probably a placeholder until abreau is healthy. 

Thompson and Eaton can play in the outfield, but neither is in the 40 man roster. 
sogard is on the 40 man roster and can get play in the outfield. Last year his offense  was kind of pitiful in Boston but ok in Worcester. 
 

if Anthony stays strong offensively over the next two weeks, I favor him starting the year in Boston. 
if Anthony struggles to recover from the stomach bug, then I favor the hottest hitter of Thompson, Eaton or sogard starting the year on n Boston 
 

 

 

[moonslav59]

MLB.com ranks the Sox staff 7th best (3rd in the AL behind SEA & DET.)

https://www.mlb.com/news/ranking-best-mlb-pitching-staffs-in-2025

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Sorry, I thought I was replying to notin with a notin-type response.

But I do have to wonder about the various posts suggesting Rafaela in RF. Cora has said multiple times he wants Ceddanne in CF as much as possible, and hasn't tried him in right in any Grapefruit games (as far as I can research). 

I keep thinking back to last decade, when the Sox moved a future Hall-of-Famer to RF to make room for Jackie Bradley Jr. -- the better centerfielder.

Meanwhile, Cora has played Duran in RF a little in the past, and Jarren has shown a lot of improvement defensively since then, so who knows. He doesn't have the arm for it, and he's no Mookie, but Betts can't lift as many bowling balls as Duran, either.

Maybe they're just counting on an Abreu comeback by April, or Anthony by May. 

Ideally, Rafaela plays CF and only CF or is the super utility guy, but last year he played more SS than CF, and now Abreu looks like he may start the year on the IL. I can't see Duran or Ref/Yoshi playing RF, so it's Anthony (which means adding him to the 40 and losing a year's control), Thompson, or just slide Rafaela to RF, until Abreu returns.

I feel very strongly about Refsnyder being in the line-up vs LHPs. We are very weak vs lefties, and he is a top 15 batter vs LH'ers. If Devers is the DH, which looks like it's odds on, now, Ref plays LF vs LHPs, Duran lays CF (NOT RF) and somebody play RF. I say  Rafaela v L and Abreu v R.

Are you for benching Refsnyder just so Rafaela can play FT CF?

2nd Q: If Anthony is not on the roster, and Abreu is on the IL or being benched vs LHPs, who do you play in RF?

[moonslav59]

On 3/10/2025 at 8:59 AM, mvp 78 said:

If the Red Sox were a serious team, they would never add Thompson AND Eaton to start the year. C'mon man. 

Agreed, but I'm not so sure Anthony will be added to the roster for opening day.

I don't see Eaton being added.

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Since abreau and yoshida will likely start the year on the DL, we have Duran, rafeala and refsynder left on the 26! 
 

we have 3 players likely to be placed on the 60 day DL, so we could add Anthony to the 40 man roster. But…

Some here think Anthony is not ready to start the year in Boston. 
Some here think Anthony is ready to start the year in Boston. 
 

Regardless, whoever the new outfielder that starts the year in Boston is, he is probably a placeholder until abreau is healthy. 

Thompson and Eaton can play in the outfield, but neither is in the 40 man roster. 
sogard is on the 40 man roster and can get play in the outfield. Last year his offense  was kind of pitiful in Boston but ok in Worcester. 
 

if Anthony stays strong offensively over the next two weeks, I favor him starting the year in Boston. 
if Anthony struggles to recover from the stomach bug, then I favor the hottest hitter of Thompson, Eaton or sogard starting the year on n Boston 

I could be wrong, but I know of no posters who feels Anthony is "not ready to start the year in Boston." I think some look at the team control issue and feel we may wait it out for that. Some think keeping as many options on the 40 already is worth waiting, and despite the 3 pitchers to the 60 Day option, we might not choose to do them all on  or right before opening day.

That being said, I seriously doubt we add Thompson, Eaton and Newcomb/Ottavino/ Adams/Fulmer, instead of one of our top 3 prospects. With Yoshi and Abreu looking out on opening day, Anthony might be the first of the big 3 added to the 40 and 26. I would not be upset at Thompson being given a look, but it's not about Anthony not being "ready."

[moonslav59]

While there may end up being no (newer)  injuries that are severe and long lasting, it looks like we may start the season with several players on the 10 or 15 Day IL, of sitting on the bench due to injury.

We could add Murphy, Penrod and Perales to the 60 Day, joining Sandoval. This would allow us to add players to the 40. These injuries were all known before winter started.

Opening day ILs:

15 Day IL: Giolito, Crawford and Bello. My guess is Abreu is on the 10 Day IL.

Questionable IL or sitting out a few days: Yoshida and maybe Devers.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Is the extra year of control over Anthony even a factor if the Sox pay him a market value extension this season, like other teams who don't screw around risking losing a potential All-Star?

If they instead "lose" that extra year of control, and Anthony wins Rookie of the Year, how much is that reward of an additional draft pick worth (the kind where they selected Anthony and Campbell in the first place)?

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Is the extra year of control over Anthony even a factor if the Sox pay him a market value extension this season, like other teams who don't screw around risking losing a potential All-Star?

If they instead "lose" that extra year of control, and Anthony wins Rookie of the Year, how much is that reward of an additional draft pick worth (the kind where they selected Anthony and Campbell in the first place)?

Yes, I think it is a factor when making the choice when to add him to the big club. Of course, an extension signed, soon would change that factor and likely hasten the call-up, if anything.

Again, I want Anthony on the opening day roster, especially if Abreu is out. I'm not sure he will be.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, I think it is a factor when making the choice when to add him to the big club. Of course, an extension signed, soon would change that factor and likely hasten the call-up, if anything.

Again, I want Anthony on the opening day roster, especially if Abreu is out. I'm not sure he will be.

Anthony has been a star player at every level in his life, and there's no reason to think he won't be in Boston. As a corner outfielder, is there any doubt he's a better all-around player right now than Refsnyder or Yoshida, or more ready than Abreu?

If the Sox make him play the first month or two in Worcester, we also have to realize the possibility he won't be as good as when he becomes a big league regular in May or June. 

What's left to learn in the minors: ballpark field conditions and lighting are crude, the food's barely edible with meager meal money, and long bus rides make body parts stiff and soft in all the wrong places?

Mayer also looks the part of at least an MLB starting shortstop. Campbell, on the other hand, still needs AAA reps to establish himself at a defensive position somewhere on the diamond that is acceptable in the Show.

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Anthony has been a star player at every level in his life, and there's no reason to think he won't be in Boston. As a corner outfielder, is there any doubt he's a better all-around player right now than Refsnyder or Yoshida, or more ready than Abreu?

If the Sox make him play the first month or two in Worcester, we also have to realize the possibility he won't be as good as when he becomes a big league regular in May or June. 

What's left to learn in the minors: ballpark field conditions and lighting are crude, the food's barely edible with meager meal money, and long bus rides make body parts stiff and soft in all the wrong places?

Mayer also looks the part of at least an MLB starting shortstop. Campbell, on the other hand, still needs AAA reps to establish himself at a defensive position somewhere on the diamond that is acceptable in the Show.

 

I get the feeling you think I'd prefer Anthony begin the season in AAA. I don't.

I was just presenting reasons not to.

I trust Brez & Co to make the right choices based on the team needs, both now and going forward. If he chooses no kids on the 40 or 26, I won't be devastated or even significantly upset. I see the advantage of an added year of control, and until we extend these kids, I'm not counting on it. (Also, even if we end up extending Anthony, if he has that added year of control, that would affect the money and years of an extension.)

I'd love to see Anthony and one from Campbell & Mayer make the 26 on opening day. That is my opinion.

[Bellhorn04]

And I'm firmly in the "they're gonna do what they're gonna do" camp. 😁 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And I'm firmly in the "they're gonna do what they're gonna do" camp. 😁 

I took it more like, "I'm gonna do what they want me to do..." from day one. not just after this latest comment.

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I took it more like, "I'm gonna do what they want me to do..." from day one. not just after this latest comment.

Sorry, my last comment was about the kids, not Devers.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Sorry, my last comment was about the kids, not Devers.

Okay. Do you, by and large, think they make the right calls on the timing of prospect promotions?

(I do.)

[notin]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Okay. Do you, by and large, think they make the right calls on the timing of prospect promotions?

(I do.)

I know if the prospects fail, the Sox will be blamed for making the wrong calls on them…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

49 minutes ago, notin said:

I know if the prospects fail, the Sox will be blamed for making the wrong calls on them…

Past regimes didn't make the wrong calls bringing up Bogaerts and Devers at such a young age. Both were Silver Sluggers by age 24.

But the draft picks they insisted were MLB ready right out of college -- pitchers Hansen and Meredith -- were overrated... which maybe says more about why Boston's pitching/scouting/developmental infrastructure failed for so long.

As for the Big Three -- and any doubt they'd be starting in the majors Opening Day if they played for other mediocre franchises -- all we have to do is look at how fast Kavadas and Yorke were called up by new teams after the last trade deadline.

There's a good chance Teel makes his MLB debut before his old buds, too. They're going to love that.

 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Okay. Do you, by and large, think they make the right calls on the timing of prospect promotions?

(I do.)

By and large (I really like that one BTW), yes I do.  They've been aggressive when necessary like with Bogey and Raffy.

[notin]

Frankly, this 40 man roster has too many mediocre infielders and not enough mediocre outfielders.

If the Sox go forward with Yoshida and Abreu to the IL, Devers at DH, that leave Hamilton/Grissom/Romy at 2b (if Campbell doesn’t surprise) and who in LF? Or RF?

Thompson and Eaton are fine for short term, but what if Abreu lingers like Grissom did last year? Roman Anthony is an option. Or maybe move a backup infielder for a backup outfielder? Refsnyder is the only backup OF, and he can’t play OF very well.  On many teams, that’s the only requirement to be a backup OF…

[notin]

33 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Past regimes didn't make the wrong calls bringing up Bogaerts and Devers at such a young age. Both were Silver Sluggers by age 24.

But the draft picks they insisted were MLB ready right out of college -- pitchers Hansen and Meredith -- were overrated... which maybe says more about why Boston's pitching/scouting/developmental infrastructure failed for so long.

As for the Big Three -- and any doubt they'd be starting in the majors Opening Day if they played for other mediocre franchises -- all we have to do is look at how fast Kavadas and Yorke were called up by new teams after the last trade deadline.

There's a good chance Teel makes his MLB debut before his old buds, too. They're going to love that.

 

Maybe Hansen and Meredith just sucked.  I’m not so sure the Sox overrated Meredith; he was a sixth round pick, after all.

And are you really comparing the Sox to the Pirates here?  Do the Pirates call up the Nick Yorke’s of the world due to greater faith in their superior evaluations? Or due to the accompanying paycheck players like Yorke come with?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

40 minutes ago, notin said:

Maybe Hansen and Meredith just sucked.  I’m not so sure the Sox overrated Meredith; he was a sixth round pick, after all.

And are you really comparing the Sox to the Pirates here?  Do the Pirates call up the Nick Yorke’s of the world due to greater faith in their superior evaluations? Or due to the accompanying paycheck players like Yorke come with?

I can't compare the Sox to the Pirates. Sure, they've both had three last place finishes in the past half decade, but Pittsburgh somehow keeps drafting, signing and developing pitchers whose ceilings are higher than back-end starter or middle reliever.

[notin]

25 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I can't compare the Sox to the Pirates. Sure, they've both had three last place finishes in the past half decade, but Pittsburgh somehow keeps drafting, signing and developing pitchers whose ceilings are higher than back-end starter or middle reliever.

They do?

When healthy, both teams have 3 starters in the rotation that they drafted or signed.  Pitt has Skenes, Jared Jones, and Mitch Keller.  Boston has Houck, Crawford and Bello.

Skenes is a big deal, but he isn’t the product of superior scouting and, given his limited time in the minors, not really a product of superior development.

Jones might be.  Only 1.8 bWAR last year, but also only 22.  A bit early to tell, but so far it looks promising..

Keller is basically Kutter Crawford.  Or Brayan Bello.  If our pitchers are backend starters, why aren’t theirs?

Houck’s bWAR over the last two seasons is comparable to that of Keller, Crawford, Bello.  But his IP are not.  Rank him second or third on this list of pitchers, ahead of the Keller/Crawford/Bello crowd.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

41 minutes ago, notin said:

They do?

When healthy, both teams have 3 starters in the rotation that they drafted or signed.  Pitt has Skenes, Jared Jones, and Mitch Keller.  Boston has Houck, Crawford and Bello.

Skenes is a big deal, but he isn’t the product of superior scouting and, given his limited time in the minors, not really a product of superior development.

Jones might be.  Only 1.8 bWAR last year, but also only 22.  A bit early to tell, but so far it looks promising..

Keller is basically Kutter Crawford.  Or Brayan Bello.  If our pitchers are backend starters, why aren’t theirs?

Houck’s bWAR over the last two seasons is comparable to that of Keller, Crawford, Bello.  But his IP are not.  Rank him second or third on this list of pitchers, ahead of the Keller/Crawford/Bello crowd.

Don't leave out the Pirates' top two pitching prospects -- Bubba Chandler, MLB's #15 overall, and Thomas Harrington, #78, with this eval: "He has as high a floor as a future big league starter as anyone in the system."

(what does that even mean: an attic loft with space for foam pads and sleeping bags?)

[notin]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Don't leave out the Pirates' top two pitching prospects -- Bubba Chandler, MLB's #15 overall, and Thomas Harrington, #78, with this eval: "He has as high a floor as a future big league starter as anyone in the system."

(what does that even mean: an attic loft with space for foam pads and sleeping bags?)

Oh I don’t know we are counting prospects who have never even debuted in MLB as top to mid rotation starters in the majors.  After all, these are ranked prospects, and those never fail.  I was saying that just the other day to Henry Owens.

As you were never at the other site that I know of, I will  introduce you to something I spent years (and by “years”, I mean “dozens of minutes”) developing - the Notin 10-30-30-30 Law of Prospects.

Basically this law, and it is a law, says on average, lists of 100 prospects break down as follows:

10 All Stars

30 Starters, starting pitchers, and closers

30 Bench players, middle relievers 

30 AAAA players and below.

And rank is immaterial. 

Which group are Chandler and Harrington in?

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, notin said:

Frankly, this 40 man roster has too many mediocre infielders and not enough mediocre outfielders.

If the Sox go forward with Yoshida and Abreu to the IL, Devers at DH, that leave Hamilton/Grissom/Romy at 2b (if Campbell doesn’t surprise) and who in LF? Or RF?

Thompson and Eaton are fine for short term, but what if Abreu lingers like Grissom did last year? Roman Anthony is an option. Or maybe move a backup infielder for a backup outfielder? Refsnyder is the only backup OF, and he can’t play OF very well.  On many teams, that’s the only requirement to be a backup OF…

LF: Refsnyder (Yoshi vs RHP?)

CF: Duran

RF: Rafaela

[notin]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

LF: Refsnyder (Yoshi vs RHP?)

CF: Duran

RF: Rafaela

Apparently Yoshida will be unable to play OF on opening day, due to only throwing from 60 feet.

He does look like a candidate to start on the IL…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Which group are Chandler and Harrington in?

They're in the group of better young pitchers that Breslow couldn't pry loose when he traded Nick Yorke to Pittsburgh.

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, notin said:

I know if the prospects fail, the Sox will be blamed for making the wrong calls on them…

So be it. I think that has been one area we've done well.

[notin]

12 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

They're in the group of better young pitchers that Breslow couldn't pry loose when he traded Nick Yorke to Pittsburgh.

Shame on Breslow for not getting ranked prospects when dealing unranked prospects.

Picking on the Yorke trade is silly.  How often do you see prospect-for-prospect deals like that?  And right Now, the Sox need Priester more than they need Yorke…

[notin]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So be it. I think that has been one area we've done well.

The Sox had a long stretch where they didn’t develop a lot of pitchers.  But the expectation that every high draft pick  has to pan out, and every ranked prospect has to succeed.  Or else the future is doomed and it’s all the organization’s flawed development teams and processes.

There are only 780 MLB roster spots available.  That guy who “failed” didn’t screw up anything.  He’s still an amazing player who’s better at baseball than most of the word is at anything.  He’s just not in the top 780…