A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, notin said:

 

And rank is immaterial. 

 

Is rank really immaterial, or is that just the way the categories spread out over the top 100 picks?

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, notin said:

The Sox had a long stretch where they didn’t develop a lot of pitchers.  But the expectation that every high draft pick  has to pan out, and every ranked prospect has to succeed.  Or else the future is doomed and it’s all the organization’s flawed development teams and processes.

There are only 780 MLB roster spots available.  That guy who “failed” didn’t screw up anything.  He’s still an amazing player who’s better at baseball than most of the word is at anything.  He’s just not in the top 780…

We did have a long stretch of pitching prospect failures, but not many were nationally ranked, very highly.

My point was more about when we chose to call up our prospects- was it every clearly too soon or too late? 

I had an issue when we called Bogey up, after just 10 games playing 3B on the farm, but those were desperate times at 3B.

[notin]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Is rank really immaterial, or is that just the way the categories spread out over the top 100 picks?

Immaterial.

The 30 players to achieve AAAA status or below could be ranked 1-30.  Most likely, they’re scattered randomly across the list…

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

Immaterial.

The 30 players to achieve AAAA status or below could be ranked 1-30.  Most likely, they’re scattered randomly across the list…

I'm not so sure they are randomly scattered, and my guess is more All Stars came from the top third of the 100 than any other third.

Your numbers do look about right as a whole.

While it is true, we cannot really count on any prospect, even ones that look great on the farm, with 3 of the top prospects in all of MLB, I think it's safe to expect 1 or 2 do do well for us- maybe not in 2025, but soon afterwards.

I've certainly been pumped up over past prospects who amounted to squat, but these three look for real.

[moonslav59]

Is this the current depth chart? (Player in parenthesis are not on the 40.)

C: Wong & Narvaez, Sabol (Zavala, Hickey, Kolozsvary)

1B: Casas, Romy, Wong (Binelas)

2B: DHam & Romy, Grissom, Sogard, Story (Campbell, Mayer)

SS: Story, Romy, DHam, Sogard, Grissom (Mayer, Campbell)

3B: Bregman & Devers, Romy, Grissom, DHam (Toro, Eaton)

LF: Duran, Refsnyder, Yoshida, Abreu, Rafaela (Anthony, Thompson)

CF: Rafaela, Duran, Abreu (Anthony, Thompson) Jh Garcia

RF: Abreu, Rafaela, Refsnyder (Anthony, Thompson) Jh Garcia

DH: Devers, Yoshida, Refsnyder and maybe Casas, if Devers could play 1B

SP: Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Sandoval, Bello, Giolito, Crawford, Fitts, Priester, Criswell, Dobbins

RP: Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Bernardino, Wilson, Weissert, Guerrero, Penrod, Murphy (Newcomb, Adams, Ottavino, Fulmer, I Campbell, Moore, Moran, Davis, Mills)

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We did have a long stretch of pitching prospect failures, but not many were nationally ranked, very highly.

Yup, and the organization has had a role in that failure -- and not just from picking the wrong guys.

Pittsburgh has as many last places as Boston in the past half decade, but pitchers drafted by the Pirates are overall looking better -- and not just because they lucked out in the lottery for Skenes. Jared Jones was pick #44 in 2020, Bubba Chandler #72 in '21, and Thomas Harrington #36 in '22 -- and every GM in baseball would take any of them right now.

And for those who want to argue that the Red Sox' homegrown starters are comparable, note that Houck, Crawford and Bello were all either drafted or signed in 2017, which is in a different half decade than 2020-2024.

Perhaps, as some have pointed out here, there has been less incompetence in the Sox' scouting and recruiting departments for pitching, but more in the planning dept. -- if intentional focus has been less on arms and more on position players.

Hopefully, Breslow will be around long enough to change the culture.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not so sure they are randomly scattered, and my guess is more All Stars came from the top third of the 100 than any other third.

Your numbers do look about right as a whole.

While it is true, we cannot really count on any prospect, even ones that look great on the farm, with 3 of the top prospects in all of MLB, I think it's safe to expect 1 or 2 do do well for us- maybe not in 2025, but soon afterwards.

I've certainly been pumped up over past prospects who amounted to squat, but these three look for real.

Go through a few lists and see for yourself.  You see players like Jesus Montero in the top ten multiple times, while Albert Pujols and Mookie Betts never cracked the top 40…

[mvp 78]

21 hours ago, notin said:

Go through a few lists and see for yourself.  You see players like Jesus Montero in the top ten multiple times, while Albert Pujols and Mookie Betts never cracked the top 40…

We love our Jesus Montero talk on here, don't we folks!

[moonslav59]

22 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Yup, and the organization has had a role in that failure -- and not just from picking the wrong guys.

Pittsburgh has as many last places as Boston in the past half decade, but pitchers drafted by the Pirates are overall looking better -- and not just because they lucked out in the lottery for Skenes. Jared Jones was pick #44 in 2020, Bubba Chandler #72 in '21, and Thomas Harrington #36 in '22 -- and every GM in baseball would take any of them right now.

And for those who want to argue that the Red Sox' homegrown starters are comparable, note that Houck, Crawford and Bello were all either drafted or signed in 2017, which is in a different half decade than 2020-2024.

Perhaps, as some have pointed out here, there has been less incompetence in the Sox' scouting and recruiting departments for pitching, but more in the planning dept. -- if intentional focus has been less on arms and more on position players.

Hopefully, Breslow will be around long enough to change the culture.

Although a seperate issue from the timing of calling up prospects, this has been a long-standing problem with the Sox system. In the past we just spent on pitching, and ho-hummed the farm's failure with finding and developing top pitchers. I will say, I think the pendulum started to swing several years ago, even if perhaps by blind luck.

While Houck, Bello & Crawford may not be great, they do represent the three best farm-produced SP'ers in over a decade. The lack of any great SP'ers on the farm now, may support the case that little has changed, but I see a much more promising group of pitching prospects than we've had in over a decade, as well. Some started out in other systems, and were acquired by our GMs, but nonetheless, here is the list:

Whitlock, Slaten, Fitts, Winckowski, Priester, Weissert, Sandlin, Kelly, Penrod, Fajardo, Gambrell, Jackson

All homegrown: Guerrero, Perales, Dobbins, Early, Monegro, Mullins, Wehunt, Dean, Carlson, Ingrassia, Mata

Tolle, Cason, Valera, Reyes, Delzine, Paez, Neely, Clarke, Tygart and more

I think we have turned the corner, but still have a ways to go. I like Breslow's focus on adding more and more pitchers. He drafted more of them, higher in the draft, and gave out more bonus pool money to pitchers than we have done in a while.

[mvp 78]

It'd be a shame if they lost Zavala. It's a bonus if any of the others stick. I know Adams has been relatively successful out west, but under the radar. Maybe he's the last guy in the pen? 

[moonslav59]

22 hours ago, notin said:

Go through a few lists and see for yourself.  You see players like Jesus Montero in the top ten multiple times, while Albert Pujols and Mookie Betts never cracked the top 40…

Of course, there are players that show there is some randomness to the top 100, but I have to believe the top 33 did better than the middle 33, and the middle 33 better than the bottom 34.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

It'd be a shame if they lost Zavala. It's a bonus if any of the others stick. I know Adams has been relatively successful out west, but under the radar. Maybe he's the last guy in the pen? 

Good to know. I was wondering about this, as roster crunch time nears.

If we lose Ottavino and Moore, I won't shed a tear. Adams & Zavala do seem like it might be worth trying to keep as options. Davis is in between, IMO. Having Thompson until July is nice.

Anything on Eaton, Toro and Newcomb?

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It'd be a shame if they lost Zavala. It's a bonus if any of the others stick. I know Adams has been relatively successful out west, but under the radar. Maybe he's the last guy in the pen? 

LOL, Adams reassigned to MiLB camp. He's not sticking around. 🤪

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Good to know. I was wondering about this, as roster crunch time nears.

If we lose Ottavino and Moore, I won't shed a tear. Adams & Zavala do seem like it might be worth trying to keep as options. Davis is in between, IMO. Having Thompson until July is nice.

Anything on Eaton, Toro and Newcomb?

If not mentioned, they may have just signed straight MiLB deals? IDK for sure. 

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

LOL, Adams reassigned to MiLB camp. He's not sticking around. 🤪

But, can he stay in our system?

[mvp 78]

"Well, we finally made it through the Floridian plague. I don't want to finalize my squad in case some dum dum drinks the water in Monterrey."

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

But, can he stay in our system?

Not if he opts out. I don't think they'd send him to MiLB camp if they wanted him on the 40 man roster. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Not if he opts out. I don't think they'd send him to MiLB camp if they wanted him on the 40 man roster. 

OK, so he has to be on the 40 or can choose to leave.

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

OK, so he has to be on the 40 or can choose to leave.

I think he would have to be on the 26 man squad or choose to leave. If he's already down in MiLB camp, it shows to me that he's not even competing for a 40 man spot at the moment regardless of opt outs IMO. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I think he would have to be on the 26 man squad or choose to leave. If he's already down in MiLB camp, it shows to me that he's not even competing for a 40 man spot at the moment regardless of opt outs IMO. 

I get it. I just wasn't sure, if he was signed to a minor league deal, or not, or if he had some date to opt out. Apparently, he does not.

He may end up on someone's 26, but maybe not on opening day, so if that is the case, couldn't he choose to stay with our AAA team?

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I think he would have to be on the 26 man squad or choose to leave. If he's already down in MiLB camp, it shows to me that he's not even competing for a 40 man spot at the moment regardless of opt outs IMO. 

 

[mvp 78]

41 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I get it. I just wasn't sure, if he was signed to a minor league deal, or not, or if he had some date to opt out. Apparently, he does not.

He may end up on someone's 26, but maybe not on opening day, so if that is the case, couldn't he choose to stay with our AAA team?

 

He can choose to stay with the AAA team if he wants. It's up to him to opt out or stick around. 

[moonslav59]

MLB.com reports that the Sox are planning on a RF platoon with Abreu, when well, and Refsnyder. I'm not happy with Ref in Fenway's RF, but keeping Rafaela in CF has advantages, too.

Personally, I'd prefer this in Fenway and other parks with larger RFs:

LF: Refsnyder

CF: Duran

RF: Rafaela

Abreu is saying he hopes to be ready by opening day, and if he is, we could see this as the line-up:

1. L Duran LF

2. L Devers DH

3. R Bregman 3B

4. L Casas 1B

5. R Story SS

6. L Abreu/ R Refsnyder RF

7. R Wong C

8. R Rafaela CF

9. L DHam/ R Romy 2B

 

[mvp 78]

Wong, c'mon man! Going around saying you're 3"s taller... Have some self respect. 

[vegasbob]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

MLB.com reports that the Sox are planning on a RF platoon with Abreu, when well, and Refsnyder. I'm not happy with Ref in Fenway's RF, but keeping Rafaela in CF has advantages, too.

Personally, I'd prefer this in Fenway and other parks with larger RFs:

LF: Refsnyder

CF: Duran

RF: Rafaela

Abreu is saying he hopes to be ready by opening day, and if he is, we could see this as the line-up:

1. L Duran LF

2. L Devers DH

3. R Bregman 3B

4. L Casas 1B

5. R Story SS

6. L Abreu/ R Refsnyder RF

7. R Wong C

8. R Rafaela CF

9. L DHam/ R Romy 2B

 

If that lineup's 1-6 performed to their MLB career  hitting stats or better, it would give opponents a lot of issues .

[vegasbob]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Wong, c'mon man! Going around saying you're 3"s taller... Have some self respect. 

The oversized shin pads make Connor look and play BIG !

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, vegasbob said:

If that lineup's 1-6 performed to their MLB career  hitting stats or better, it would give opponents a lot of issues .

Agreed, and our bottom 3 are not as bad as many teams.

I'm not worried about our O.

[Larry Cook]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

MLB.com reports that the Sox are planning on a RF platoon with Abreu, when well, and Refsnyder. I'm not happy with Ref in Fenway's RF, but keeping Rafaela in CF has advantages, too.

Personally, I'd prefer this in Fenway and other parks with larger RFs:

LF: Refsnyder

CF: Duran

RF: Rafaela

Abreu is saying he hopes to be ready by opening day, and if he is, we could see this as the line-up:

1. L Duran LF

2. L Devers DH

3. R Bregman 3B

4. L Casas 1B

5. R Story SS

6. L Abreu/ R Refsnyder RF

7. R Wong C

8. R Rafaela CF

9. L DHam/ R Romy 2B

 

Duran - rafeala - abreau with refsynder as a 4th is a good outfield if rafeala improves offensively!  

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Duran - rafeala - abreau with refsynder as a 4th is a good outfield if rafeala improves offensively!  

Refsnyder is the 15th best hitter vs LHPs over the last 3 years. Three years is not a fluke.

The Sox have sucked vs LHPs. Refsnyder needs to play every game when a LHP starts. Call that the "4th OF'er, if you wish. I call him our platoon OF'er, and since Abreu has sucked vs LHPs, so far, it seems obvious he should sit vs lefties. 

If you agree with that, I ask what is the best defensive alignment vs LHPs, when Ref is playing?

Duran-Rafaela-Refsnyder (left to right)

or

Refsnyder-Duran-Rafaela (when in Fenway.)

IMO, It's not really Ref vs Raf, it's Ref and Abreu platooning and Rafaela playing FT, either in CF or mostly CF, but RF vs lefties.

[Larry Cook]

4 outfield spots on the 26 is how I look at it! 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

4 outfield spots on the 26 is how I look at it! 

Plus the OF pretender, Yoshida?