A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I think bench spots can be up for grabs too. We've seen guys like Chang, Tapia, Arauz and others make the team in part due to Spring Training. 

True.  Although that doesn’t really apply to someone like Campbell…

[Larry Cook]

I absolutely love Mayer’s swing and I think he is going to be an amazing addition to Boston. 
but I do not think that will happen this year, unless there are infield injuries. 
 

Campbell has the highest ceiling of the three,  but he looks like an outfielder playing the infield. 
 

 

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I know the point you were making, but getting excited about 1 game from Mayer would rate the same response for 14 AB from KC. You all rate the same good, or bad. I’m pretty sure you’d be talking KC up if he was 7-14 instead of 1-14. That’s the point.  I’m not writing anyone off, because I didn’t count on any of the 3 suspects making the opening day roster anyway. I’m just letting things play out good, and bad. Constructing positions?🙈🤭

I wasn't aware getting excited over a nice game is somehow an issue with you. I never made any claims that a nice game by Mayer wins a job for him on the roster, just as  1-11 from KC does not exclude him from winning a slot on the roster.

I'm not sure what position I constructed you are questioning.

My point about your constructing was based on you saying this, "If Campbell had a day like Mayer did the other day you’d be ranting, and raving about him, and you wouldn’t be saying it’s way too early."

Yes, I would be and have been saying "it's much too early," and the sample sizes too small to make any definitive decisions. Getting excited about a big game is part of being a fan.

The other day, I posted the spring OPS and literally said, "It's way too early."

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

From today's O's-Red Sox match-up of two AL East teams supposed to contend for postseason berths:

1. Felix Bautista is back after missing last year with TJS. The 6'8 285-lb closer struck out 16 batters per 9 IP n '23 when Baltimore won over 100 games. If he's as good again (8 years younger than Chapman), Boston has nothing like him.

2. The Red Sox really need to find a solid second baseman with reliable hands who can block throws in the dirt by Wong, the anointed starting catcher. Runners on first and third, Oriole stealing second, and Wong shorthopped a throw that went right through Hamilton into centerfield for a gift run. That ball has to be blocked -- or at least lay out and get dirty trying to keep it in the infield. It's the second time already this Spring I've seen Hamilton miss one (he also fanned on a line drive)... 

... this may freak some posters out, but if Raffy's shoulder heals in the next month, maybe the way to start the season is to play Bregman at second... (while hoping Campbell, Mayer or somebody scorches Triple A and shows they can play competent infield every day).

These aren't overrated meaningless March stats, because we all know how imperative it is that the defense improves.

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

From today's O's-Red Sox match-up of two AL East teams supposed to contend for postseason berths:

1. Felix Bautista is back after missing last year with TJS. The 6'8 285-lb closer struck out 16 batters per 9 IP n '23 when Baltimore won over 100 games. If he's as good again (8 years younger than Chapman), Boston has nothing like him.

2. The Red Sox really need to find a solid second baseman with reliable hands who can block throws in the dirt by Wong, the anointed starting catcher. Runners on first and third, Oriole stealing second, and Wong shorthopped a throw that went right through Hamilton into centerfield for a gift run. That ball has to be blocked -- or at least lay out and get dirty trying to keep it in the infield. It's the second time already this Spring I've seen Hamilton miss one (he also fanned on a line drive)... 

... this may freak some posters out, but if Raffy's shoulder heals in the next month, maybe the way to start the season is to play Bregman at second... (while hoping Campbell, Mayer or somebody scorches Triple A and shows they can play competent infield every day).

These aren't overrated meaningless March stats, because we all know how imperative it is that the defense improves.

 

Our 2B has been a mess for so long, it's not funny. A half season from Story, here and half season from Kike, there, but otherwise, it's been worse than replacement level for over 5 years.

DHam and Romy doing okay for a half year made it look like they some kind of solution. Even if they are better than sucky, doesn't mean they can be handed the job.

That being said, I still think Bregman at 3B is what is best, and he's been no beacon for defense, this spring, either. His play at 2B is speculative.

If  Campbell can't play decent defense at 2B, I think the best solution may be XStory at 2B and Mayer at SS- not saying to start the season, but maybe sooner rather than later.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

That being said, I still think Bregman at 3B is what is best, and he's been no beacon for defense, this spring, either. His play at 2B is speculative.

If  Campbell can't play decent defense at 2B, I think the best solution may be XStory at 2B and Mayer at SS- not saying to start the season, but maybe sooner rather than later.

This defensive alignment -- Breg 3B, Mayer SS, Story 2B -- is putting the best gloves and arms in the best spots for the best starting rotation since the last championship.

It will require, as Papi says, "putting egos aside" -- but it also gives Mayer on-the-job training, instead of forcing him back to Worcester to develop (which is front office code for fermenting until they secure one more year of control).

As for the question of Mayer proving he can hit lefthanded offspeed stuff, are Triple A teams really loaded with such specialists, and will they be lining them up to face Worcester on a nightly basis?

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

This defensive alignment -- Breg 3B, Mayer SS, Story 2B -- is putting the best gloves and arms in the best spots for the best starting rotation since the last championship.

It will require, as Papi says, "putting egos aside" -- but it also gives Mayer on-the-job training, instead of forcing him back to Worcester to develop (which is front office code for fermenting until they secure one more year of control).

As for the question of Mayer proving he can hit lefthanded offspeed stuff, are Triple A teams really loaded with such specialists, and will they be lining them up to face Worcester on a nightly basis?

I don’t see Mayer making the 26 out of ST barring injury, and I don’t see Story moving off SS at this point. As for the best starting rotation since the last championship? There is a lot of things to happen that remains to be seen. Crochet is not very seasoned, and hasn’t thrown many innings to know what he will be. Buehler didn’t have that great of a season last year, and who knows what Gio will bring to the mound. I’m certainly not that impressed with the backend of the BP at this point either especially the closer whomever that will be.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

I don’t see Mayer making the 26 out of ST barring injury, and I don’t see Story moving off SS at this point. As for the best starting rotation since the last championship? There is a lot of things to happen that remains to be seen. Crochet is not very seasoned, and hasn’t thrown many innings to know what he will be. Buehler didn’t have that great of a season last year, and who knows what Gio will bring to the mound. I’m certainly not that impressed with the backend of the BP at this point either especially the closer whomever that will be.

None of us see them breaking camp with Mayer, just that they need to put the best D out there sooner rather than too later if they truly want to contend. But nobody looks too sharp right now trying not to get hurt before it's real.

As for the rotation, it's not the Dodgers -- nor the Dodgers -- nor the Dodgers. But it's better than last year's Sox, and that wasn't that bad until injuries exposed lack of depth.

The pen is an entirely different subject that most of us see as incomplete. NY and Baltimore have added elite closers in Williams, and the return of Bautista. Boston has guys who were good three years ago: Hendriks, Chapman, Whitlock.

 

[moonslav59]

51 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

As for the rotation, it's not the Dodgers -- nor the Dodgers -- nor the Dodgers. But it's better than last year's Sox, and that wasn't that bad until injuries exposed lack of depth.

In one sense, you are right. We ended up needing too many "pen games" that may have put the final nail in the pen coffin over the last 2-3 months of 2024. (7 GS from Kelly, Bernardino & Anderson) We also had to trade for Paxton (3 GS) and Hill (0 GS.)

In another sense, our rotation depth did very well, until like you said, we had to go too deep.

Houck was looking to be the 6th starter, until Gio went down, and he was, by far, our best SP'er in 2024.

Criswell started 18 games and wasn't even on the immediate depth chart, this time, last year. (3.49 ERA)

Winckowski started 6 games and actually did okay. (2.42 ERA as a SP)

Fitts (4 GS) and Priester (1 GS) did very well. (1.63 ERA combined)

BTW, Kelly and Bernardino allowed zero ERS in 11.1 IP as "openers."

It was more about the need to overwork the pen than actual poor performances by our 2024 rotation depth that put the knife in our side.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

None of us see them breaking camp with Mayer, just that they need to put the best D out there sooner rather than too later if they truly want to contend. But nobody looks too sharp right now trying not to get hurt before it's real.

I think Mayer has the least chance of the big 3 of breaking camp with the big club, but he sure does seem like he'd fix the defensive needs in a second. That would be a damn good defensive alignment in the IF, minus Casas at 1B. An OF of Duran, Rafaela & Abreu has to be top 3 in OF defense in MLB. ONly 1B and C would be weaknesses on D, and if narvaez is what they say he is, and he plays more than we might expect, maybe we go from bottom 3 in team defenser to top 10 or 15. Maybe better.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

Red Sox Accused of ‘Misleading Core Players’ on Trade Plans

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Red Sox Accused of ‘Misleading Core Players’ on Trade Plans

I clicked on it, but made sure not to stare directly at any of the subliminal ads on my screen.

[drewski6]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Our 2B has been a mess for so long, it's not funny. A half season from Story, here and half season from Kike, there, but otherwise, it's been worse than replacement level for over 5 years.

DHam and Romy doing okay for a half year made it look like they some kind of solution. Even if they are better than sucky, doesn't mean they can be handed the job.

That being said, I still think Bregman at 3B is what is best, and he's been no beacon for defense, this spring, either. His play at 2B is speculative.

If  Campbell can't play decent defense at 2B, I think the best solution may be XStory at 2B and Mayer at SS- not saying to start the season, but maybe sooner rather than later.

this isnt directed at you because I know you understand but - its good to have options and flexibility.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Red Sox Accused of ‘Misleading Core Players’ on Trade Plans

And you had the audacity to post a beating a dead horse jpeg? None of this is news. The Casas trade rumors are months old. The Devers stuff is weeks old at this point. Do you have anything else to talk about? 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

And you had the audacity to post a beating a dead horse jpeg? None of this is news. The Casas trade rumors are months old. The Devers stuff is weeks old at this point. Do you have anything else to talk about? 

Well, the dead horse was because we certainly didn't need a 10th thread dedicated to the same topic. They should all be merged and not another thread every time a new article comes out on the same subject IMO.

[Hitch]

On 3/2/2025 at 5:45 PM, moonslav59 said:

It is clear the plan is Rafaela to play FT CF. IMO, he deserves to be handed the job, but not unconditionally. He could play some RF, when Abreu sits vs LHPs, although Anthony could play RF vs LHPs, too.

I will ask this, if Anthony plays LF, where does Duran play? (Hint: not RF.)

Nice to see you on the Raf in CF train at last! I agree with you also about people getting overexcited about Mayer or Campbell at the moment - ST results count for little this early in. A lot of pitchers are working on one specific/motion this early, and hitters know that and can often get inflated numbers because of it. Alternatively hitters are also working on things, and sometimes take a while to find their rhythm. 

~Most teams know who the majority of their 26 are, with a few positions up for grabs. The management will make their decisions on a whole host of things, least of all if a guy goes 4 for 4, or 1 for 11 in early ST. 

There's a few different directions they may want to go yet, but inevitably, injuries will likely get involved to solidify things in the end.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

And you had the audacity to post a beating a dead horse jpeg? None of this is news. The Casas trade rumors are months old. The Devers stuff is weeks old at this point. Do you have anything else to talk about? 

And my post was more about the sox being misleading than about the trade itself.

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Red Sox Accused of ‘Misleading Core Players’ on Trade Plans

None of this is new news. The Casas thing has been obvious and out there for months. That said, I don't think Breslow has done anything that virtually every other exec does, too, which is to not state 'yes we're really quite open to dumping one of our guys'. Doesn't lead to a very promising leverage situation. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Nice to see you on the Raf in CF train at last! I agree with you also about people getting overexcited about Mayer or Campbell at the moment - ST results count for little this early in. A lot of pitchers are working on one specific/motion this early, and hitters know that and can often get inflated numbers because of it. Alternatively hitters are also working on things, and sometimes take a while to find their rhythm. 

~Most teams know who the majority of their 26 are, with a few positions up for grabs. The management will make their decisions on a whole host of things, least of all if a guy goes 4 for 4, or 1 for 11 in early ST. 

There's a few different directions they may want to go yet, but inevitably, injuries will likely get involved to solidify things in the end.

I've always been fine playing Rafaela in CF as much as possible. I did not like seeing him at SS, last year, but he was the best we had there, for a while.

My point about playing him in RF vs LHPs, assuming we platoon Abreu, again, is that he's way better than Ref, Duran or Yoshida out there, and the drop off from Rahaela to Duran in CF is minimal.

I'm not sure any top prospects break camp with the big club and never have been. I see a few reasons for keeping them down, one being an added year of control. That being said, if and when Anthony joins the OF, a big question on who gets squeezed will occur. My guess is Abreu and Rafaela will platoon (Abreu in RF and Rafaela in CF with Anthony moving from RF to CF or LF, depending on who is sitting, and if we want Duran in CF over Anthony.)

Some choices will have to be made, at some point, unless the kids never get the call. That is very unlikely.

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Well, the dead horse was because we certainly didn't need a 10th thread dedicated to the same topic. They should all be merged and not another thread every time a new article comes out on the same subject IMO.

The thread was for the TalkSox podcast, if you had bothered to read it. It wasn't a thread for "who plays third base" or whatever. 

My suggestion for you is to stop being absolutely miserable about everything to everyone on here. 

[notin]

4 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

This defensive alignment -- Breg 3B, Mayer SS, Story 2B -- is putting the best gloves and arms in the best spots for the best starting rotation since the last championship.

It will require, as Papi says, "putting egos aside" -- but it also gives Mayer on-the-job training, instead of forcing him back to Worcester to develop (which is front office code for fermenting until they secure one more year of control).

As for the question of Mayer proving he can hit lefthanded offspeed stuff, are Triple A teams really loaded with such specialists, and will they be lining them up to face Worcester on a nightly basis?

Is sending him back really only fine for an extra year of control?  The book on him all off season was “injury-prone, struggles against offspeed stuff, and never played above AA.”  Has a handful of ST games changed all this?

In an earlier argument buried on the boards, I said Mayer was the most likely to break camp in Boston.  But that was solely based on Story’s injury-fueled history the past 3 years.  Is he really going to displace Story?  Or take over 2b in the interim?

I still stand by my Devers (3b), Story (SS), Bregman (2b) prediction, with the Off-mentioned caveat that if Devers isn’t playing 3b due to his shoulder, Grissom would get first crack at 2b and Bregman would handle third…

[Bellhorn04]

47 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Well, the dead horse was because we certainly didn't need a 10th thread dedicated to the same topic. They should all be merged and not another thread every time a new article comes out on the same subject IMO.

The site owner wants the articles.  Surely you can wrap your head around this.  If not just move along.   

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

26 minutes ago, notin said:

Is sending him back really only fine for an extra year of control?  The book on him all off season was “injury-prone, struggles against offspeed stuff, and never played above AA.”  Has a handful of ST games changed all this?

In an earlier argument buried on the boards, I said Mayer was the most likely to break camp in Boston.  But that was solely based on Story’s injury-fueled history the past 3 years.  Is he really going to displace Story?  Or take over 2b in the interim?

I still stand by my Devers (3b), Story (SS), Bregman (2b) prediction, with the Off-mentioned caveat that if Devers isn’t playing 3b due to his shoulder, Grissom would get first crack at 2b and Bregman would handle third…

Not disagreeing with anything you wrote. But see if you disagree with this: the Red Sox might lead the league in infielders who need to prove they can play a full big league season in Boston.

That obviously includes Mayer (in any league) and Campbell, as well as Grissom, but also Story and Casas (we know Casas did it his rookie year, but that was before he ripped the core muscles power hitters need to swing hard and continue to be power hitters). 

Now, of all these potential regulars, is there any doubt the one with the best all-around defensive skills is Marcelo Mayer? I'm not saying he doesn't have batting issues to overcome, but looking at the list, who doesn't?

If Raffy is healthy enough to play, I can see Story and Bregman as the DP combo to begin the season. But injuries and WooSox bats banging on Gate B will prob change that in a hurry. Solidifying the infield defense -- locking down improvement -- is so important this year, especially with the top end pitching the Sox invested in (guys they want to keep around awhile). 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

32 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The site owner wants the articles.  Surely you can wrap your head around this.  If not just move along.   

Articles are fine, does that mean they all need a separate thread when it's about the same exact subject? Just seems repetitive.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

59 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The thread was for the TalkSox podcast, if you had bothered to read it. It wasn't a thread for "who plays third base" or whatever. 

My suggestion for you is to stop being absolutely miserable about everything to everyone on here. 

Hardly miserable, I actually have a smile on my face and am enjoying my day, Getting some things done around the house, enjoying the weather.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Articles are fine, does that mean they all need a separate thread when it's about the same exact subject? Just seems repetitive.

You're going to have to send your comments to the site owner.  There's no value in posting pictures of dead horses or complaining to other posters.    

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Not disagreeing with anything you wrote. But see if you disagree with this: the Red Sox might lead the league in infielders who need to prove they can play a full big league season in Boston.

That obviously includes Mayer (in any league) and Campbell, as well as Grissom, but also Story and Casas (we know Casas did it his rookie year, but that was before he ripped the core muscles power hitters need to swing hard and continue to be power hitters). 

Now, of all these potential regulars, is there any doubt the one with the best all-around defensive skills is Marcelo Mayer? I'm not saying he doesn't have batting issues to overcome, but looking at the list, who doesn't?

If Raffy is healthy enough to play, I can see Story and Bregman as the DP combo to begin the season. But injuries and WooSox bats banging on Gate B will prob change that in a hurry. Solidifying the infield defense -- locking down improvement -- is so important this year, especially with the top end pitching the Sox invested in (guys they want to keep around awhile). 

Our current IF starters, except for Bregman have all had injury issues, recently- no doubt.

Story, most of all, has a lot to prove, especially with the bat, if he can play 145+ games.

Casas seems to be a nice hitter and horrible defender, when healthy.

Devers has had recent injury issues, but not a long injury history. We know he can hit, but is awful on D, despite a few brief stretches where he looks okay.

Mayer has had injuries, just about every year on the farm.

Campbell, DHam and Romy, none that I'm aware of.

Grissom has a ton to prove, IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Our current IF starters, except for Bregman have all had injury issues, recently- no doubt.

Story, most of all, has a lot to prove, especially with the bat, if he can play 145+ games.

Casas seems to be a nice hitter and horrible defender, when healthy.

Devers has had recent injury issues, but not a long injury history. We know he can hit, but is awful on D, despite a few brief stretches where he looks okay.

Mayer has had injuries, just about every year on the farm.

Campbell, DHam and Romy, none that I'm aware of.

Grissom has a ton to prove, IMO.

Griss better get something going soon.  13 trips to the plate and one single thus far.  SSSS, I know, but if anybody needs to show they can hit a little it's him.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Griss better get something going soon.  13 trips to the plate and one single thus far.  SSSS, I know, but if anybody needs to show they can hit a little it's him.

Is that his nickname???

[Bellhorn04]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Is that his nickname???

I'll just go with abbreviation.