A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

This whole scenario was based on adding 3 everyday players (Campbell, Anthony & mayer) to the 40 (and 26.) DFA'ing Sogard and 60 Day IL'ing Murphy and Penrod is a net gain of 2 everyday players.

Sogard would not be needed, but we could also 60 Day Yoshida, whether he likes it or not. I don't see Sogard as the type of guy we have to hold onto. If a need arises, there are dozens of Sogards out there for the taking, on any given day.

I don’t think the Sox are as desperate to get away from their best hitter vs RHP last year as you are.  Overpaid or not, they don’t seem to see him as useless.  They’ve DFAd contracts (Sandoval, Hanley) before that were close in value…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The scenario I presented was about finding room for all 3 kids AND everyone healthy, including Story. Play along: who sits, if all 3 play?

Assuming Bregman at 3B, casas at 1B, Devers at DH and Duran, Story, Campbell, Mayer and Anthony playing FT or very near FT, someone sits from Abreu, Rafaela, Yoshida and Ref. 

Story, Bregman, Campbell and Mayer rotate through 2B, SS and 3B, but Campbell becomes the rover at all three. Grampas Trevor and Alex get the most days off.

Rafaela starts in CF, Anthony on one corner, and Duran or Abreu -- whoever isn't traded -- on the other. We know who the back-ups are, and Duran and/or Abreu are too good to ride the bench and not be optimized as trade bait.

 

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

There's a reason Duran, a much-improved outfielder, and Abreu, the Gold Glove rookie, patrol the corners; it's the same reason why Anthony, a centerfielder while becoming baseball's top prospect, has mostly played LF so far.

It is clear the plan is Rafaela to play FT CF. IMO, he deserves to be handed the job, but not unconditionally. He could play some RF, when Abreu sits vs LHPs, although Anthony could play RF vs LHPs, too.

I will ask this, if Anthony plays LF, where does Duran play? (Hint: not RF.)

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Story, Bregman, Campbell and Mayer rotate through 2B, SS and 3B, but Campbell becomes the rover at all three. Grampas Trevor and Alex get the most days off.

Rafaela starts in CF, Anthony on one corner, and Duran or Abreu -- whoever isn't traded -- on the other. We know who the back-ups are, and Duran and/or Abreu are too good to ride the bench and not be optimized as trade bait.

IMO, if all three make the 26, and nobody is hurt, we'll trade an OF'er. This would allow Campbell to play OF, when not in the IF "rover" mix. The kids will all have to play 145+ games, IMO.

Maybe we trade the LHB Abreu and see this:

3B: Bregman 145/ Campbell 17

SS: Mayer 145/Story 17

2B: Story 128/Campbell 34

LF: Duran 150/ Campbell 12

CF: Rafaela 135/Campbell 27

RF: Anthony 145/Campbell 17

That's just 117 games for Campbell, so maybe someone DHs, when Devers sits and get gets 10 more games. Is 127-130 enough?

Of course, we'll ave injuries, so I'm pretty sure all could get 145-155, per healthy player.

No Yoshida. No Refsnyder (a top 15 batter vs LHPs since 2022.) No Abreu. No DHam, Romy, Grissom.

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

There's a reason Duran, a much-improved outfielder, and Abreu, the Gold Glove rookie, patrol the corners; it's the same reason why Anthony, a centerfielder while becoming baseball's top prospect, has mostly played LF so far.

How maybe players do we think will start the year on the 60 day DL! 

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

How maybe players do we think will start the year on the 60 day DL! 

Sandoval already is

IMO....

Murphy is 99%

Penrod 90%

Yoshida 33%

Whitlock 5%

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

IMO, if all three make the 26, and nobody is hurt, we'll trade an OF'er. This would allow Campbell to play OF, when not in the IF "rover" mix. The kids will all have to play 145+ games, IMO.

Maybe we trade the LHB Abreu and see this:

3B: Bregman 145/ Campbell 17

SS: Mayer 145/Story 17

2B: Story 128/Campbell 34

LF: Duran 150/ Campbell 12

CF: Rafaela 135/Campbell 27

RF: Anthony 145/Campbell 17

That's just 117 games for Campbell, so maybe someone DHs, when Devers sits and get gets 10 more games. Is 127-130 enough?

Of course, we'll ave injuries, so I'm pretty sure all could get 145-155, per healthy player.

No Yoshida. No Refsnyder (a top 15 batter vs LHPs since 2022.) No Abreu. No DHam, Romy, Grissom.

Trades certainly do happen at this point, but they are far from common.  With Abreu not even playing yet, he’s not a likely candidate for any team to see as a solution for an opening.

Now despite being a 3 WAR outfields with a rookie, the Sox could still option him to Worcester if they think Anthony is ready to take over.  But I don’t consider that to be very likely.

Really at this point, the injury progress to Devers and Yoshida will be the only factors left in determining the position players on the roster.  And whose left standing probably determines the rotation. The final bullpen spot or two might be the only spot anyone is actually trying to out for…

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

Trades certainly do happen at this point, but they are far from common.  With Abreu not even playing yet, he’s not a likely candidate for any team to see as a solution for an opening.

Now despite being a 3 WAR outfields with a rookie, the Sox could still option him to Worcester if they think Anthony is ready to take over.  But I don’t consider that to be very likely.

Really at this point, the injury progress to Devers and Yoshida will be the only factors left in determining the position players on the roster.  And whose left standing probably determines the rotation. The final bullpen spot or two might be the only spot anyone is actually trying to out for…

We would not need to trade Abreu or anyone else, right away, or at least until the 3 kids establish themselves, but it makes sense to me to trade to upgrade a position of high need.

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Sandoval already is

IMO....

Murphy is 99%

Penrod 90%

Yoshida 33%

Whitlock 5%

Giolita? 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Giolita? 

I forgot him. I'd say 10-20%. Maybe 50% he starts on the 10 day IL, but you don't get a 40 man roster add-on for those.

[Thunder]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It is clear the plan is Rafaela to play FT CF. IMO, he deserves to be handed the job, but not unconditionally. He could play some RF, when Abreu sits vs LHPs, although Anthony could play RF vs LHPs, too.

I will ask this, if Anthony plays LF, where does Duran play? (Hint: not RF.)

Duran will make 8 clones of himself so he can play all 9 positions at once. That's how he'll solve it.

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I forgot him. I'd say 10-20%. Maybe 50% he starts on the 10 day IL, but you don't get a 40 man roster add-on for those.

Will abreau start the year on the DL! 

[Randy Red Sox]

9 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Story, Bregman, Campbell and Mayer rotate through 2B, SS and 3B, but Campbell becomes the rover at all three. Grampas Trevor and Alex get the most days off.

Rafaela starts in CF, Anthony on one corner, and Duran or Abreu -- whoever isn't traded -- on the other. We know who the back-ups are, and Duran and/or Abreu are too good to ride the bench and not be optimized as trade bait.

 

correct me if I'm wrong but based on ST to date Campbell does not look ready

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

correct me if I'm wrong but based on ST to date Campbell does not look ready

 

The post you replied to was a hypothetical if/when all three of the Big Three make the team.

Regarding Campbell so far... yup, ST stats don't mean a lot to some people, but the games are what we watch, and the most recent qualitative data.

As for where Duran plays when Anthony arrives, this isn't quite a Jackie Bradley/Mookie Betts comparison. Obviously, Mookie was good enough to be the centerfielder one year, then moved to right for JBJ. In their first season together, both were All-Stars and the Sox went from worst to first. It wasn't a bad shift; Betts won five more Gold Gloves than Bradley.

Duran played a little right when he came up in 2022. According to bb-ref, his Defensive Runs Saved Above Average that year was +52 in RF, -26 in CF. Last season in CF Duran was +25, Rafaela +23. Abreu was +22 in RF.

[moonslav59]

So, if Campbell goes 4 for 4 with 2HRs, today, and brings his OPS up to .800, he's ready?

It's way too early to say he's ready or not.

[moonslav59]

12 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Will abreau start the year on the DL! 

Tough to know. If he does, it will just be the 10 day not 60.

[Bellhorn04]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So, if Campbell goes 4 for 4 with 2HRs, today, and brings his OPS up to .800, he's ready?

It's way too early to say he's ready or not.

That'd probably bring his OPS over 1.000 LOL.

We have 4 S's in effect: Small Spring Sample Sizes.

[jad]

Aren't there rules against putting guys on the 60-day IL just to open up a spot on the 40-man roster?

[mvp 78]

21 hours ago, notin said:

I don’t think the Sox are as desperate to get away from their best hitter vs RHP last year as you are.  Overpaid or not, they don’t seem to see him as useless.  They’ve DFAd contracts (Sandoval, Hanley) before that were close in value…

If they DFA Masa, they are punting on Japanese FAs for the foreseeable future. 

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, jad said:

Aren't there rules against putting guys on the 60-day IL just to open up a spot on the 40-man roster?

Not if the 60IL guy is injured. 

[Old Red]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

So, if Campbell goes 4 for 4 with 2HRs, today, and brings his OPS up to .800, he's ready?

It's way too early to say he's ready or not.

Campbell is 0-11. If Campbell had a day like Mayer did the other day you’d be ranting, and raving about him, and you wouldn’t be saying it’s way too early. Mayer had a good day, and you said Mayer for Mayor, and when Bregman hit a HR you were talking about waking up a sleeping giant. Hopefully Campbell starts turning things around today,but as of right now he’s done nothing to be even talking about.

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Campbell is 0-11. If Campbell had a day like Mayer did the other day you’d be ranting, and raving about him, and you wouldn’t be saying it’s way too early. Mayer had a good day, and you said Mayer for Mayor, and when Bregman hit a HR you were talking about waking up a sleeping giant. Hopefully Campbell starts turning things around today,but as of right now he’s done nothing to be even talking about.

In general, what are your thoughts on Spring Training results. Can they turn a suspect into a real player? 

[Old Red]

30 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

In general, what are your thoughts on Spring Training results. Can they turn a suspect into a real player? 

If players are fighting for a job that will be decided by what they do in ST then the stats mean something. Otherwise just getting through ST healthy is what matters most to me. I’m not counting on any of the suspects making the team out of ST. If one does then great. A big thing too is who are the AB’s against? Front line pitchers? Other suspects? Guys just filling out a ST game? 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

If players are fighting for a job that will be decided by what they do in ST then the stats mean something. Otherwise just getting through ST healthy is what matters most to me. I’m not counting on any of the suspects making the team out of ST. If one does then great. A big thing too is who are the AB’s against? Front line pitchers? Other suspects? Guys just filling out a ST game? 

I think most teams already know who 23-25 players on their roster will be before ST even starts, and I bet for most teams, the only unknown roster spots are the back of the bullpen and/or maybe the fifth starter.  I’m sure it’s happened, but I can’t think of an instance offhand in recent years where a team unseated a contracted veteran with a prospect based on ST.  Maybe the small market/ low payroll teams do this more often because their veterans have less financial commitment and are easier to bench or unload.

With the money committed to the bulk of starting players, I don’t think very many are “fighting for a roster spot,” especially with the bench roles, because younger players are better of starting in AAA than sitting in MLB.

I could be wrong, but I doubt it happens all that much outside of backend relievers and 5th starters…

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, notin said:

I think most teams already know who 23-25 players on their roster will be before ST even starts, and I bet for most teams, the only unknown roster spots are the back of the bullpen and/or maybe the fifth starter.  I’m sure it’s happened, but I can’t think of an instance offhand in recent years where a team unseated a contracted veteran with a prospect based on ST.  Maybe the small market/ low payroll teams do this more often because their veterans have less financial commitment and are easier to bench or unload.

With the money committed to the bulk of starting players, I don’t think very many are “fighting for a roster spot,” especially with the bench roles, because younger players are better of starting in AAA than sitting in MLB.

I could be wrong, but I doubt it happens all that much outside of backend relievers and 5th starters…

I think bench spots can be up for grabs too. We've seen guys like Chang, Tapia, Arauz and others make the team in part due to Spring Training. 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

On 3/2/2025 at 12:44 PM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Story, Bregman, Campbell and Mayer rotate through 2B, SS and 3B, but Campbell becomes the rover at all three. Grampas Trevor and Alex get the most days off.

Rafaela starts in CF, Anthony on one corner, and Duran or Abreu -- whoever isn't traded -- on the other. We know who the back-ups are, and Duran and/or Abreu are too good to ride the bench and not be optimized as trade bait.

 

Many players find it hard to get in a groove playing musical chairs.

[moonslav59]

On 3/2/2025 at 11:39 AM, notin said:

I don’t think the Sox are as desperate to get away from their best hitter vs RHP last year as you are.  Overpaid or not, they don’t seem to see him as useless.  They’ve DFAd contracts (Sandoval, Hanley) before that were close in value…

You mean 3rd best? (almost 4th.)

No they are not "desperate," but I do think they'd trade him in a second, for nothing, if someone took his salary- maybe even just half his salary, so at what point would you call it desperate?

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Old Red said:

Campbell is 0-11. If Campbell had a day like Mayer did the other day you’d be ranting, and raving about him, and you wouldn’t be saying it’s way too early. Mayer had a good day, and you said Mayer for Mayor, and when Bregman hit a HR you were talking about waking up a sleeping giant. Hopefully Campbell starts turning things around today,but as of right now he’s done nothing to be even talking about.

I never suggest making any roster choices based on one game. I was only making a point about people claiming KC is not "ready" based on a 4 game sample size. I trust our management to know when the player is ready.

I said "Mayer for mayor" not starting SS. I don't recall the "sleeping giant" comment on Bregman, but what does that have to do with writing off Campbell, so early? I've been pretty consistent saying I think maybe one kid starts on the opening day roster. I've said I'd love to see 2-3 make it, but only if they earn it and management deems them ready for a FT or near FT role.

I got no stake in this choice.

Stop constructing positions I don't hold and attributing them to me.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I think bench spots can be up for grabs too. We've seen guys like Chang, Tapia, Arauz and others make the team in part due to Spring Training. 

Agreed, but I have to think our top 3 prospects will not be added to the roster as bench guys. (Not that you even hinted at this.)

[Old Red]

51 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I never suggest making any roster choices based on one game. I was only making a point about people claiming KC is not "ready" based on a 4 game sample size. I trust our management to know when the player is ready.

I said "Mayer for mayor" not starting SS. I don't recall the "sleeping giant" comment on Bregman, but what does that have to do with writing off Campbell, so early? I've been pretty consistent saying I think maybe one kid starts on the opening day roster. I've said I'd love to see 2-3 make it, but only if they earn it and management deems them ready for a FT or near FT role.

I got no stake in this choice.

Stop constructing positions I don't hold and attributing them to me.

I know the point you were making, but getting excited about 1 game from Mayer would rate the same response for 14 AB from KC. You all rate the same good, or bad. I’m pretty sure you’d be talking KC up if he was 7-14 instead of 1-14. That’s the point.  I’m not writing anyone off, because I didn’t count on any of the 3 suspects making the opening day roster anyway. I’m just letting things play out good, and bad. Constructing positions?🙈🤭