A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs has the Sox with the best pitching WAR in the AL for 2025 (4th best in MLB.)

We are ranked 20th in everyday player fWAR (O & D combined.) That's 12th in the AL.

28th at C

27th at SS

16th in CF

13th in RF

12th in LF (hard to believe)

12th at DH

10th at 2B (Bregman)

8th at 1B

T4th at 3B (w HOU)

It seems they view our 2024 OF as a fluke and or view the loss of O'Neill as an earth-shattering event.

I think our OF is top 5-8th.

1B top 5-7

The rest seems about right, with SS as the wildcard.

$40M a year to have the 10th best 2B fWAR. Hmmmm....

[moonslav59]

We have heard how losing O'Neal's bat vs LHPs will be a big blow to our 2025 chances, and it's hard to argue against it being significant, but consider this: how many of our best hitters vs LHPs in 2024 look to get equal or more PAs in 2025?

1.179 O'Neill (156 PAs>0)

.941 Refsnyder (145>???)

.879 Romy (130>???)

.877 Wong (152> ???)

.772 Jansen (43> 0)

.758 Casas (61> should be way more, barring injury)

.737 Westbrook (34>0)

.686 Devers (224 should be more and a better OPS in '25)

.677 D Smith (47>0)

.655 Duran (230)

.619 Grissom (24>???)

.607 Cooper (28>0)

.603 Rafaela (152>?)

.565 Yoshida (108>? has to do better)

.532 Abreu (67>??? some want him FT)

.532 DHam (50>??? should not start vs LHPs)

.472 Story (20<???)

My point is, if we end up squeezing Ref and Romy out of PAs vs LHPs, it might hurt more than losing O'Neall as they had 275 PSAs vs his 156.

I know some posters have an aversion to platoons or "subs" starting when they have the splits, but we cannot afford to bench Ref vs LHPs and maybe Romy deserves playing time vs LHPs, too- somehow/someway/somewhere. The "where" is the major question with Bregman at 2B FT.

Maybe Abreu should start the year on a platoon.

 

 

 

[notin]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We have heard how losing O'Neal's bat vs LHPs will be a big blow to our 2025 chances, and it's hard to argue against it being significant, but consider this: how many of our best hitters vs LHPs in 2024 look to get equal or more PAs in 2025?

1.179 O'Neill (156 PAs>0)

.941 Refsnyder (145>???)

.879 Romy (130>???)

.877 Wong (152> ???)

.772 Jansen (43> 0)

.758 Casas (61> should be way more, barring injury)

.737 Westbrook (34>0)

.686 Devers (224 should be more and a better OPS in '25)

.677 D Smith (47>0)

.655 Duran (230)

.619 Grissom (24>???)

.607 Cooper (28>0)

.603 Rafaela (152>?)

.565 Yoshida (108>? has to do better)

.532 Abreu (67>??? some want him FT)

.532 DHam (50>??? should not start vs LHPs)

.472 Story (20<???)

My point is, if we end up squeezing Ref and Romy out of PAs vs LHPs, it might hurt more than losing O'Neall as they had 275 PSAs vs his 156.

I know some posters have an aversion to platoons or "subs" starting when they have the splits, but we cannot afford to bench Ref vs LHPs and maybe Romy deserves playing time vs LHPs, too- somehow/someway/somewhere. The "where" is the major question with Bregman at 2B FT.

Maybe Abreu should start the year on a platoon.

 

 

 

1.  Losing O’Neill against LHP could be big, but last year the Sox faced a LHSP 43 times while facing a RHSP 119 times.  Why is the focus on the 43 games?

2. Abreu only started 6 games vs LHSP last year, and I have my doubts Cora increases that number by much, if at all, unless injuries force his hand.  It looks like Refsnyder is his platoon partner in the OF, and since Cora did re-arrange the outfielders last year to keep Ref’s poor D from being exploited, I would imagine that continues.  

3.  Romy could get more time against LHSP next year.  Gonzalez did crush LHP last year with an OPS over .900, and I would expect his performance against them contributed to his second overall finish on the Sox in exit velocity.

4. Fans don’t like platoons for large market teams, and they are more prevalent on teams with lower payrolls.  Cora clearly has no issue with them.  Don’t rely on Roster Resource for their platoon info; that site definitely loves suggesting them everywhere possible..

[moonslav59]

The 2025 CBT Budget, according to cots:

31.7 Bregman (deferred number)

29.3 Devers

23.3 Story

21.1 Buehler

19.3 Giolito

18.0 Yoshida

10.8 Chapman

9.2 Sandoval

9.2 Bello

6.3 Rafaela

5.0 Hendriks

4.7 Whitlock

4.0 Houck

3.9 Duran

3.8 Crochet

2.8 Crawford

2.3 Wilson

2.1 Refsnyder

(18 players above min wage)

$610K ($760 to Hosmer - $150K Ref's option conversion)

6.4 Pre-arb players

5.3 Injured players

2.6 minor leaguers on 40

1.7 pre-arb bonus pool

17.5 Player benefits

TOTAL: $240.4 M

$566K under the first tax line.

Spotrac has us at $228.6M, but I'm not sure that counts player benefits of $17.5M, which would make it $246.1 and $5M over the line.

According to Spotrac, we are now ranked 7th in team budget- $27M from 6th (SDP who are looking to trim salary.)

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

1.  Losing O’Neill against LHP could be big, but last year the Sox faced a LHSP 43 times while facing a RHSP 119 times.  Why is the focus on the 43 games?

2. Abreu only started 6 games vs LHSP last year, and I have my doubts Cora increases that number by much, if at all, unless injuries force his hand.  It looks like Refsnyder is his platoon partner in the OF, and since Cora did re-arrange the outfielders last year to keep Ref’s poor D from being exploited, I would imagine that continues.  

3.  Romy could get more time against LHSP next year.  Gonzalez did crush LHP last year with an OPS over .900, and I would expect his performance against them contributed to his second overall finish on the Sox in exit velocity.

4. Fans don’t like platoons for large market teams, and they are more prevalent on teams with lower payrolls.  Cora clearly has no issue with them.  Don’t rely on Roster Resource for their platoon info; that site definitely loves suggesting them everywhere possible..

Where does Romy play to get more PAs?

[Duran Is The Man]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

The 2025 CBT Budget, according to cots:

31.7 Bregman (deferred number)

29.3 Devers

23.3 Story

21.1 Buehler

19.3 Giolito

18.0 Yoshida

10.8 Chapman

9.2 Sandoval

9.2 Bello

6.3 Rafaela

5.0 Hendriks

4.7 Whitlock

4.0 Houck

3.9 Duran

3.8 Crochet

2.8 Crawford

2.3 Wilson

2.1 Refsnyder

(18 players above min wage)

$610K ($760 to Hosmer - $150K Ref's option conversion)

6.4 Pre-arb players

5.3 Injured players

2.6 minor leaguers on 40

1.7 pre-arb bonus pool

17.5 Player benefits

TOTAL: $240.4 M

$566K under the first tax line.

Spotrac has us at $228.6M, but I'm not sure that counts player benefits of $17.5M, which would make it $246.1 and $5M over the line.

According to Spotrac, we are now ranked 7th in team budget- $27M from 6th (SDP who are looking to trim salary.)

 

 

 

for all the bashing i've done of Henry, i'll give him credit for finally deciding to spend. adding Bregman has given me hope for the season. 

[notin]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Where does Romy play to get more PAs?

DH platoon with Yoshida would be my guess.  Cora will find a place for him…

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

for all the bashing i've done of Henry, i'll give him credit for finally deciding to spend. adding Bregman has given me hope for the season. 

I had serious doubts he'd ever spend large again, too.

Of course, he hasn't gone large and long since Price, unless you count Story's moderately large and long deal or the Devers extension. We are back to the top 7 spending clubs, after being 12-th to 14th for a couple years or so. That is a good sign.

I'm still not having great expectations, going forward, but I truly feel like a window has opened up, starting with 2025. We lose some major salary after 2025, and should be able to count on 1-3 of our top prospects to fill some slots at the lowest possible cost. That should leave an enormous opportunity to spend, especially if we end up staying under the tax line in 2025. We coudl spend some on extensions (Crochet and maybe Houck or the kids,) and still have enough to fill the slots vacated by Buehler, Gio, Hendriks, Chapman, Wilson and maybe Bregman, if he opts out or doesnt resign with us for a longer deal, after he puts up monster numbers in '25.

Potential salaries lost after 2025:

$40M Bregman ($31.7 CBT)

$21.2 Buehler

$19,3M Giolito (has an option)

$10.8 Chapman

$5M Hendriks (has an option)

$4.4M Refsnyder + Wilson

That's over $100M total! However, we would have these holes to fill:

SP2, Closer, SP5, Set-Up man, 2B/3B and RHB. Still, 5 lost and $100M is $20M per slot without adding to the budget, and with 3 top prospects surely ML ready by 2026.

2026 possible FAs

SP: Cease, Buehler, Eflin, Bassitt, Fedde, King, Lugo ($15M player option) Flaherty can opt out, Imanaga has club option, D May

RP: E Diaz (player option) Helsley, Hendriks & CHapman, Fairbanks (club option) Pressley and many more

C: Hedges, S Perez, Realmuto, Caratini & Vazquez

3B: Bregman can opt out

1B: Guerrero , Alonso can opt out

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, notin said:

DH platoon with Yoshida would be my guess.  Cora will find a place for him…

And a Ref platoon with Abreu?

Certainly doable.

[Duran Is The Man]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I had serious doubts he'd ever spend large again, too.

Of course, he hasn't gone large and long since Price, unless you count Story's moderately large and long deal or the Devers extension. We are back to the top 7 spending clubs, after being 12-th to 14th for a couple years or so. That is a good sign.

I'm still not having great expectations, going forward, but I truly feel like a window has opened up, starting with 2025. We lose some major salary after 2025, and should be able to count on 1-3 of our top prospects to fill some slots at the lowest possible cost. That should leave an enormous opportunity to spend, especially if we end up staying under the tax line in 2025. We coudl spend some on extensions (Crochet and maybe Houck or the kids,) and still have enough to fill the slots vacated by Buehler, Gio, Hendriks, Chapman, Wilson and maybe Bregman, if he opts out or doesnt resign with us for a longer deal, after he puts up monster numbers in '25.

Potential salaries lost after 2025:

$40M Bregman ($31.7 CBT)

$21.2 Buehler

$19,3M Giolito (has an option)

$10.8 Chapman

$5M Hendriks (has an option)

$4.4M Refsnyder + Wilson

That's over $100M total! However, we would have these holes to fill:

SP2, Closer, SP5, Set-Up man, 2B/3B and RHB. Still, 5 lost and $100M is $20M per slot without adding to the budget, and with 3 top prospects surely ML ready by 2026.

2026 possible FAs

SP: Cease, Buehler, Eflin, Bassitt, Fedde, King, Lugo ($15M player option) Flaherty can opt out, Imanaga has club option, D May

RP: E Diaz (player option) Helsley, Hendriks & CHapman, Fairbanks (club option) Pressley and many more

C: Hedges, S Perez, Realmuto, Caratini & Vazquez

3B: Bregman can opt out

1B: Guerrero , Alonso can opt out

possible, but does anyone really think Bregman would opt out after this year?

[moonslav59]

Over half (21) of the 40 man roster was not on the 40, when Brez took over 16 months ago. A few were in the system, already, but still, that is an amazing turn-around of the roster. Sogard, Guerrero, Penrod, Dobbins and JH Garcia were non Brez acquisitions.

Brez additions:

40 man:  Crochet, Bregman, Buehler, Slaten, Hendriks, Chapman, Giolito, Criswell, Romy, Sandoval, Fitts, Priester, Narvaez, Wilson, Grissom, Weissert, Sabol

Non 40: Fulmer, I Campbell, Drohan, N Davis, J Moran, Stock, Mills, Newcomb, Toro, Eaton, Zavala

Prospects: Sandlin, Tolle, Cason, D Reyes, J Gonzales, D Soto, S Delzine, Y Fajardo, B Neely, B Clarke, B Tygart, H Rivas, H Ramos, Z Ehrhard, Judice

Did I miss someone significant?

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

possible, but does anyone really think Bregman would opt out after this year?

Yes, "might," if he has a big year.

If he gets another $171M/6 offer, it would be $171M vs $80M not $120M.

He might even take $150M/6 over $80M/2

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It seems like most projection sites have us pretty low. 

I know I'm biased, but I think this team has a real good shot at making a solid statement.

That being said, one of our strengths seems to be solid depth and a nice farm. While both are nice to have and bodes well for the future, could we be one big trade away from being a top conetnder?

I'm not saying we should do one, but we do seem to have some duplicated values, and could try to make a serious upgrade at one or two weak area. Right now, our weakest areas seem to be Catcher, Closer and RHB, A nice RHB catcher could fill 2 needs with one move, but it would also be nice if the catcher was a plus on D and working with the staff. I'm not sure Willson Contreras fits the defensive need, but the guy can hit. Sean Murphy on ATL fits 3 needs: RHB, Catcher and Catcher D. Others that fit the need are William Contreras and Will Smith, but how many of these guys are available?

notin suggested a Story for Murphy trade, way back when. He's owed $60M/4, but Story is udner water.  We'd need to give more. Maybe they'd want Mayer, instead, but then who is our back-up SS for china doll Story? (Arias and Romero are too far away.) It might still be worth the risk. Maybe Story and Crawford (and more?) for Murphy? I doubt LAD trades Smith. I doubt MIL trades William Contreras, who has 2 arbs left. It would take a big package to get him- maybe Anthony or Campbell. I doubt Mayer, Crawford and Fitts gets the job done. I keep looking at STL, who wants to cut salary, but have said they only wanted to trade Arenado. STL has 2 very nice looking young catchers, so I think they could be talked into trading Willson. They've said they are not shopping Helsley, but he's got just 1 year left, and I do not think STL views 2025 as part of any "window," so what would it take to get Willson & Helsley?

They may insist on Casas and more. They don't need a SS or 2Bman, so they may demand Anthony. I would not give him up for Willson, who may be better suited for 1B or DH. I doubt they take any package without Casas or Anthony as the headliner, but is there something else that could persuade them?

Abreu, Crawford, Cespedes and Mullins? Probably not enough, despite Helsley just having one year left, but doesn't this 26 look much better?

1. L Duran LF/CF

2. L Devers 1B/DH

3. R Bregman 3B

4. L Casas DH/1B

5.R  Contreras C

6. R Campbell 2B

7. L Anthony RF

8. R Story SS

9. R Rafaela CF/ R Refsnyder LF (Or L Yoshida LF)

Bench: Wong, Ref or Raf, DHam, Yoshida

SP: Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Bello, Giolito, Crawford

RP: Helsely, Chapman, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Wink, Wilson/Criswell

 

 

[Larry Cook]

Looks like Bergman has been very durable over the years. When is the last time we could say that about a free agent signing ?????

if Bergman moves to 3rd base and devers moves to DH!!!  
who wins the 2nd base job and what do we do with yoshida???

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Looks like Bergman has been very durable over the years. When is the last time we could say that about a free agent signing ?????

Giolito?

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

if Bergman moves to 3rd base and devers moves to DH!!!  
who wins the 2nd base job and what do we do with yoshida???

At 2B, we have two main options: Campbell or a platoon between DHam and Romy (or Grissom.)

Yoshida could be moved to LF as a platoon with Refsnyder. Duran in CF and Abreu-Rafaela platoon RF. Rafaela or Abreu are the late inning defensive replacement when we have a lead.

Or, Yoshida rides the bench as a PH'er.

Or, Yoshida is optioned to AAA, until someone gets hurt.

[Larry Cook]

Someone once thought Campbell (the pitcher) had a chance to contribute. But then he imploded big time!!!

seems like he showed up to spring training a lot thinner and his stuff is looking sharper. 
he might be a deep sleeper candidate for the bullpen 

[Larry Cook]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Giolito?

Haha!!  Good one!! 

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Someone once thought Campbell (the pitcher) had a chance to contribute. But then he imploded big time!!!

seems like he showed up to spring training a lot thinner and his stuff is looking sharper. 
he might be a deep sleeper candidate for the bullpen 

I was very high on I Campbell, last spring. There is still hope he makes it back on the 40 and 26.

[Old Red]

37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Giolito?

Even Story, and Sale were healthy before coming to Boston.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Even Story, and Sale were healthy before coming to Boston.

Story had a known injury issue, but yes, he had not missed much time, at all. Story played 145 games in 2019 and 142 in 2021, so he wasn't really an iron man out there, the two full seasons before joining the Sox.

Sale was a horse, but many worried about his "violent" motion catching up to him someday. He was not an injury plagued player, even into his first 2-3 season with BOS, although signs were showing and he did miss a little time in "18 and '19.

[moonslav59]

Sox management avoided any longer term deals, and with a possible work stoppage ahead, this might be a big savings for them.

That being said, Brez & Co. added some of the top players, this winter.

We added the best player traded : Crochet.

We added the second highest AAV in Bregman.

We added the 13th highest AAV in Buehler.

We added #41 AAV in Chapman.

In a sense, we added Gio who would have been #16 in AAV, this year.

We also added Hendriks, Wilson, Narvaez and some minor league depth.

We lost O'Neill, K Jansen, Martin, D Jansen/McGuire and some others that could be viewed as additions by subtractions.

I gotta give props to Brez & Co. for this winter.

 

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox management avoided any longer term deals, and with a possible work stoppage ahead, this might be a big savings for them.

That being said, Brez & Co. added some of the top players, this winter.

We added the best player traded : Crochet.

We added the second highest AAV in Bregman.

We added the 13th highest AAV in Buehler.

We added #41 AAV in Chapman.

In a sense, we added Gio who would have been #16 in AAV, this year.

We also added Hendriks, Wilson, Narvaez and some minor league depth.

We lost O'Neill, K Jansen, Martin, D Jansen/McGuire and some others that could be viewed as additions by subtractions.

I gotta give props to Brez & Co. for this winter.

 

How about given props to TW, and JH who both personally called Boras to get the Bregman deal done?

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

How about given props to TW, and JH who both personally called Boras to get the Bregman deal done?

That's what the "Company" stands for in "Brez & Co."

[moonslav59]

I can understand people not agreeing with my belief that last year's team felt like it was better than a .500 team, but even using the .500 2024 team as the comp, the amount of additions made vs the subtractions, looks very promising to me.

The players returning from injuries may be replace by other players or the same ones being hurt in 2025, but we had some very kep players out or playing hurt for long periods of time in 2024. Certainly, we could see the same of more in '25, but 2024 seemed excessive.

Gio & Hendriks missed the full season.

Story, Whitlock & Casas missed big chunks.

Devers played hurt and missed a few weeks.

Lesser knowns missed time, too, but not excessively so.

These returning players, alone, could easily make up for the losses of O'Neill, Pivetta, Martin and the Jansens. When you factor in the losses or fringe players, the losses of these other players does not look so catastrophic. EValdez .633 in 223 PAs, DSmith .706 in 278 PAs had more PAs than O'Neill in 2024, but that is rarely mentioned. We also lost .575 in 158 by McGuire, .410 by Dalbec in 93 and a few others with 20-90 PAs. I think the overall loss of players on offense and defense, combined is an addition by subtraction, despite all the dingers lost by Tyler. The loss of Pivetta, Jansen and Martin may not be fully replaced by just returning injured player, but Whitlock, Gio & Hendriks can take a massive chunk out of their losses.  We also may see more from Fitts, Priester, Criswell and Fulmer.

I think one could call the healthy returns of all injured 2024 players as equalling the loss of players, good and bad, from the 2024 roster. New injuries in 2025 have to be expected, and that would have to be filled by the folloing additions to the 2025 roster.

Crochet & Buehler to the rotation

Chapman & Wilson in the pen.

Bregman is the line-up and on D.

Sandoval possible joining in August.

IMO, this has been a clear plus winter- something we have not seen since the DD days.

 

[harmony]

On 2/12/2025 at 10:30 AM, moonslav59 said:

I did not remember Kutter's TJS. Wow, yet one more to the list.

Jared Carrabis reports that Kutter Crawford has mentioned the possibility that the right-hander might need knee surgery:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDXo5RPTD0Y

... at 27:05.

[Larry Cook]

55 minutes ago, harmony said:

Jared Carrabis reports that Kutter Crawford has mentioned the possibility that the right-hander might need knee surgery:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDXo5RPTD0Y

... at 27:05.

And he did not know about this back in October??

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

And he did not know about this back in October??

If he was hurt, back then, these types of things really irk me.

We knew we'd have some injuries, but for us, they seem to come before the players even take the field- like Giolito.

[Hitch]

On 2/15/2025 at 8:02 PM, notin said:

1.  Losing O’Neill against LHP could be big, but last year the Sox faced a LHSP 43 times while facing a RHSP 119 times.  Why is the focus on the 43 games?

 

That's starters. If you have a host of left handed hitters in your team, bullpens can be set up to come in and neutralise you over a 3 game series. 

[Hugh2]

On 2/15/2025 at 2:49 PM, moonslav59 said:

We have heard how losing O'Neal's bat vs LHPs will be a big blow to our 2025 chances, and it's hard to argue against it being significant, but consider this: how many of our best hitters vs LHPs in 2024 look to get equal or more PAs in 2025?

1.179 O'Neill (156 PAs>0)

.941 Refsnyder (145>???)

.879 Romy (130>???)

.877 Wong (152> ???)

.772 Jansen (43> 0)

.758 Casas (61> should be way more, barring injury)

.737 Westbrook (34>0)

.686 Devers (224 should be more and a better OPS in '25)

.677 D Smith (47>0)

.655 Duran (230)

.619 Grissom (24>???)

.607 Cooper (28>0)

.603 Rafaela (152>?)

.565 Yoshida (108>? has to do better)

.532 Abreu (67>??? some want him FT)

.532 DHam (50>??? should not start vs LHPs)

.472 Story (20<???)

My point is, if we end up squeezing Ref and Romy out of PAs vs LHPs, it might hurt more than losing O'Neall as they had 275 PSAs vs his 156.

I know some posters have an aversion to platoons or "subs" starting when they have the splits, but we cannot afford to bench Ref vs LHPs and maybe Romy deserves playing time vs LHPs, too- somehow/someway/somewhere. The "where" is the major question with Bregman at 2B FT.

Maybe Abreu should start the year on a platoon.

 

 

 

Who is squeezing Ref and Romy out of at bats that makes this team worse? 

Bregman and Campbell are slated to get a lot of at bats where there were 0 last year.  Those two guys are better than Ref and Romy.