A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

I liked O’Neill, but he’s only played 280 games in the past 3 years.  Im not so sure that counts for the RHB being taken care of…

Even when he played, he was not always like the 2024 player we saw.

Also, if he has a QO attached to his name, I'm not sure he'd be signed by now- or maybe for less money.

[Hugh2]

28 minutes ago, Hitch said:

On the O'Neil subject, Sean McAdam stated on the podcast recently that we made a major error in not extending O'Neil the QO. If he says no, we get another compensatory pick and if he takes it, yes we've overpaid but only for 1 year and our RH power bat is taken care of. 

Hard to argue with the logic. 

In another world perhaps, but this team is obviously operating on some kind of budget.  And 21 million to O'Neill is a lot of money when the pitching staff needed more help and the outfield was presumably set. 

[Hugh2]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Even when he played, he was not always like the 2024 player we saw.

Also, if he has a QO attached to his name, I'm not sure he'd be signed by now- or maybe for less money.

O'Neill likely accepts. 

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

O'Neill likely accepts. 

True.

LF: O'Neill v RHPs/ Duran v LHPs

CF: Duran v RHPs/ Rafaela v LHPs

RF: Abreu  v RHPs/ O'Neill v LHPs

[mvp 78]

43 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

O'Neill likely accepts. 

It's why they didn't offer it. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

On the O'Neil subject, Sean McAdam stated on the podcast recently that we made a major error in not extending O'Neil the QO. If he says no, we get another compensatory pick and if he takes it, yes we've overpaid but only for 1 year and our RH power bat is taken care of. 

Hard to argue with the logic. 

For a guy who misses A LOT of time historically, it's silly to offer him 20M+ for a year.

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

True.

LF: O'Neill v RHPs/ Duran v LHPs

CF: Duran v RHPs/ Rafaela v LHPs

RF: Abreu  v RHPs/ O'Neill v LHPs

So you make Rafaela a part time player and block Anthony?  What do you do when Anthony gets called up? Because you're starting Duran/Anthony and that leaves one outfield spot for O'Neill, Abreu, Rafaela, Refsnyder.

It makes sense they didn't offer him one, they'd rather of spent that money on pitching and effectively did with a Buehler signing. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Even when he played, he was not always like the 2024 player we saw.

I guess what you're saying is that he was inconsistent.  The only thing is you can say that about 95% of MLB hitters.

[Hitch]

Not a universally loved idea then? 😅

I'll respond to all the points in here rather than individually or I'll be quoting for days. 

Yes he may have rejected it and then that would have cratered his market and he ends up in Japan, Highly unlikely, but who cares either way? Nothing lost. 

He led the Sox in HR's despite missing a 3rd of the season. So yes, he's inconsistent, and injury prone, but he hits for power and is RH'ed. Two things we still badly need. 

I would argue that a one year deal is very much the time to take an expensive gamble. The hurt is shallow and short-lasting if it goes wrong. And it's the kind of thing we like to do. See - Walker Buehler.  Also, in the words of Andrew Friedman - sometimes you have to overpay, or you'll finish 3rd. A one year is the opportune time for that.

This move wouldn't have been instead of the pitching we've seen added. but alongside it, clearly. Even with him signed for $21m, we're under the cap. 

Yes, there'd be a log jam, and this is where Abreu most certainly gets moved. Fine by me. And I think the Sox (as wrong as it would be) would LOVE to keep Anthony down until June 1st. Regardless, we'll get injuries, like we do every season. 

I guess what it comes down to is, would you be okay seeing O'Neil on the team now for a year, because the way our line up looks, I'd have no issues with it (if we make other trades to balance out).

 

[moonslav59]

52 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

So you make Rafaela a part time player and block Anthony?  What do you do when Anthony gets called up? Because you're starting Duran/Anthony and that leaves one outfield spot for O'Neill, Abreu, Rafaela, Refsnyder.

It makes sense they didn't offer him one, they'd rather of spent that money on pitching and effectively did with a Buehler signing. 

I was not for resigning O'Neill for these reasons, among others.

[drewski6]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

There is no sure bet that O'Neill will come close to 2024 numbers.

It might not even be 50-50 he hits at 80% of 2024.

In the beginning of the offseason, i wanted to upgrade oneill but considered him an acceptable fallback, but ive moved on from both options at this point in time and agree.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

Not a universally loved idea then? 😅

I'll respond to all the points in here rather than individually or I'll be quoting for days. 

Yes he may have rejected it and then that would have cratered his market and he ends up in Japan, Highly unlikely, but who cares either way? Nothing lost. 

He led the Sox in HR's despite missing a 3rd of the season. So yes, he's inconsistent, and injury prone, but he hits for power and is RH'ed. Two things we still badly need. 

I would argue that a one year deal is very much the time to take an expensive gamble. The hurt is shallow and short-lasting if it goes wrong. And it's the kind of thing we like to do. See - Walker Buehler.  Also, in the words of Andrew Friedman - sometimes you have to overpay, or you'll finish 3rd. A one year is the opportune time for that.

This move wouldn't have been instead of the pitching we've seen added. but alongside it, clearly. Even with him signed for $21m, we're under the cap. 

Yes, there'd be a log jam, and this is where Abreu most certainly gets moved. Fine by me. And I think the Sox (as wrong as it would be) would LOVE to keep Anthony down until June 1st. Regardless, we'll get injuries, like we do every season. 

I guess what it comes down to is, would you be okay seeing O'Neil on the team now for a year, because the way our line up looks, I'd have no issues with it (if we make other trades to balance out).

 

Moving Abreu because you signed O'Neill to a one year deal is WILD. 

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Moving Abreu because you signed O'Neill to a one year deal is WILD. 

Trading Abreu has been an idea with some traction, this winter, even without an O'Neill return.

We've been talking about "balancing" the line-up, and he is one of our worst batters vs LHPs.

We've been talking about Anthony being ML ready and Rafaela moving back to a FT role in the OF.

The one year aspect would be more about a "bridge" to Anthony. That bridge could also be Grichuk or Lauereno.

I'm thinking we keep Abreu around and hope heleans how to hit LHPs. It's hard to carry 2 OF'ers who struggle vs LHPs with only Rafaela and Ref as RH'd options. (Duran is .634 vs LHPs career and .665 in '24.)

[mvp 78]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Trading Abreu has been an idea with some traction, this winter, even without an O'Neill return.

We've been talking about "balancing" the line-up, and he is one of our worst batters vs LHPs.

We've been talking about Anthony being ML ready and Rafaela moving back to a FT role in the OF.

The one year aspect would be more about a "bridge" to Anthony. That bridge could also be Grichuk or Lauereno.

I'm thinking we keep Abreu around and hope heleans how to hit LHPs. It's hard to carry 2 OF'ers who struggle vs LHPs with only Rafaela and Ref as RH'd options. (Duran is .634 vs LHPs career and .665 in '24.)

Dumping Abreu without adding another OFer aside from Anthony is even wilder than giving O'Neill the QO.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Moving Abreu because you signed O'Neill to a one year deal is WILD. 

Moving Abreu was always its own independent action.  Think they move him if Teoscar had signed on?

[notin]

4 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

O'Neill likely accepts. 

I wouldn’t have minded another year of O’Neill, whose off again/on again playing time creates an opportunity for Anthony as opposed to blocking him.

But I do think it’s likely the Sox never get a pick.  Pivetta shows up for work pretty regularly and so far that hasn’t worked out regarding his compensatory pick…

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Moving Abreu was always its own independent action.  Think they move him if Teoscar had signed on?

Teoscar would've signed for multiple seasons and is a guy who can play 140 games every damn season. It's not an equivalent move.

[FredLynn]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He's such an up and down player with injury issues and declining defensive skills.

We have Anthony and Campbell ranked top 10. Both can play OF.

I get the one year risk thing, but $20M is a lot, for this team and the winter budget. I'd rather have Buehler & Grichuk.

Who has Henry actually spent significant money on to fill our needs this offseason? Lets not count rehab projects such as pitchers recovering from TJS as they are damaged goods.

Full throttle!

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Dumping Abreu without adding another OFer aside from Anthony is even wilder than giving O'Neill the QO.

Yes. That was why I mentioned Grichuk/Laureno.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Who has Henry actually spent significant money on to fill our needs this offseason? Lets not count rehab projects such as pitchers recovering from TJS as they are damaged goods.

Full throttle!

He hasn't. the budget is not higher.

He just shifted the money from the pen (Jansen & Martin) and everyday players (O'Neill) to the rotation.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He hasn't. the budget is not higher.

He just shifted the money from the pen (Jansen & Martin) and everyday players (O'Neill) to the rotation.

We can probably credit Breslow with the shift.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We can probably credit Breslow with the shift.

He's also traded away a lot of everyday players and prospects for pitching. He's drafted more pitchers than we've seen in recent years. He's signed 2 IFAs with $450K+ bonuses. That's 2 of the 3, we've signed since 2020. (Paez '21, D Reyes '24, Delzine '25)

[Hitch]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Moving Abreu because you signed O'Neill to a one year deal is WILD. 

Weird reply. We've been trying to move him all winter regardless of us having O'Neil. And when we move him, which we should now, it'll be for other pieces we'll need.

With Anthony coming, we're set long term in the outfield.

 

 

[FredLynn]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He hasn't. the budget is not higher.

He just shifted the money from the pen (Jansen & Martin) and everyday players (O'Neill) to the rotation.

Exactly. Last I checked the payroll was middle third. That’s not good enough for a bad team like this. I’ll admit it seems a bit better than last year in terms of SPing but where’s the RH bats? The pen looks mediocre again too. 
Henry has turned into a cheap bastard who obviously doesn’t care about winning-and why should he? The fans keep showing up, keep buying Red Sox products…..everyone needs to stay home and not support the team financially. Starve the SOB.

[moonslav59]

56 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Exactly. Last I checked the payroll was middle third. That’s not good enough for a bad team like this. I’ll admit it seems a bit better than last year in terms of SPing but where’s the RH bats? The pen looks mediocre again too. 
Henry has turned into a cheap bastard who obviously doesn’t care about winning-and why should he? The fans keep showing up, keep buying Red Sox products…..everyone needs to stay home and not support the team financially. Starve the SOB.

I do think last year's team had some excitement and exciting players. We inched up slowly with the record and standings. I think we look better, on paper, now, but we need a bigger jump, IMO.

The reliance on the kids to boost us over the top is an age-old plan, but I can't help but feel like we could have made a strong statement that the Sox are back, with the kids knocking on the door as the fall back not "the plan."

I've always been big on building up the rotation from the top and continuously, along with decent up the middle defense and a closer. I gotta say, we've done a very nice job constructing a solid rotation along with better than decent depth. We took a stab at boosting the pen with the Hendriks and Chapman signings, but to me, Jansen and Martin were better. Our up the middle defense can only improve greatly, if Story can stay healthy for a full season. We may improve a little at 2B, now that EValdez is gone, CF if Rafaela plays there more often, and Catcher if Wong can improve or the back-up does better than McGuire and Jansen, but none will likely be a huge boost.

I think the O will be about the same.

The defense will improve a little, but going from bottom 5 to bottom 10-15 may not be enough.

The rotation should be much better, and it wasn't bad, last year.

The pen is the wild card. It is deep with promising pitchers but shallow on sure-thing arms.

[jdc69]

17 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

For a guy who misses A LOT of time historically, it's silly to offer him 20M+ for a year.

But he hit 31 home runs. That's impressive especially since he didn't play every game. Alonso, known as playing every game and being a power hitter hit 33. That's enough to risk 20 million and one year to know if the injuries were in the past or not.

[mvp 78]

5 hours ago, jdc69 said:

But he hit 31 home runs. That's impressive especially since he didn't play every game. Alonso, known as playing every game and being a power hitter hit 33. That's enough to risk 20 million and one year to know if the injuries were in the past or not.

And he only hit 23 the previous two seasons combined. Of his 7 years in MLB, only 3 have had a wRC+ above 100. Sox lucked into a good season with him. Time to move on. 

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, Hitch said:

Weird reply. We've been trying to move him all winter regardless of us having O'Neil. And when we move him, which we should now, it'll be for other pieces we'll need.

With Anthony coming, we're set long term in the outfield.

Who is we? Abreu is cheap. Moving him was part of a deal to bring back a frontline starter. They made a deal that didn't include Abreu. No reason to move him now. Right now, he's locked in as the everyday RFer. 

I may be one of the few people not overly concerned about the lefthandedness of the lineup. 

[Bellhorn04]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

And he only hit 23 the previous two seasons combined. Of his 7 years in MLB, only 3 have had a wRC+ above 100. Sox lucked into a good season with him. Time to move on. 

That's fair.  But I also look at the fact that O'Neill had a 2.6 bWAR/2.5 fWAR and has been replaced by J-Didd, who consistently delivers a 0.0. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That's fair.  But I also look at the fact that O'Neill had a 2.6 bWAR/2.5 fWAR and has been replaced by J-Didd, who consistently delivers a 0.0. 

If O'Neill was a consistent 2 WAR guy, they would have retained him. His career is just a rollercoaster and he had back to back 2 WAR seasons due to all of his injury issues. As he gets older, those injuries will only get worse IMO. I wouldn't be surprised if '24 was his last decent season. His fielding fell off and he had the second highest amount of games played in his career. 

If he's being replaced by anyone it's Roman Anthony.