A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

19 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's refreshing to have a guy like Cohen be so candid with everyone.  Feels like this was the unvarnished truth.

Pete Alonso's agent: Scott Boras

How much money is Alonso going to leave on the table this offseason because of his dumb agent? 

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Do you think the medicals have come back bad on flattery????  If so, shouldn’t bres-slow be all over signing this guy????

The medicals are that he has a really bad back. The Sox could have had him for very cheap last year and didn't want him. Why take him now when their rotation is loaded? 

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, notin said:

Why would Bregman sign it today if he wants more?  Despite that it’s been going on for a while, the off-season isn’t almost over.  He does still have time…

It is not a certainty that the $156M/6 original deal is still on the table w HOU. Talk shows down here are are saying it is not.

[Hitch]

50 minutes ago, notin said:

Why would Bregman sign it today if he wants more?  Despite that it’s been going on for a while, the off-season isn’t almost over.  He does still have time…

He's not in a bidding war. There seem to be some teams tentatively interested. I'm saying I find it hard to believe that there are teams wiling to beat that figure (which he would know by now), and therefor find it hard to believe that exact deal is still on the table. Especially as the Astros have made other moves.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Hitch said:

He's not in a bidding war. There seem to be some teams tentatively interested. I'm saying I find it hard to believe that there are teams wiling to beat that figure (which he would know by now), and therefor find it hard to believe that exact deal is still on the table. Especially as the Astros have made other moves.

Yeah, as time goes on, more and more teams fill there needs and move on from Bregman. At some point, he prices himself out of the market and will have to take a lesser deal. 

He should have just taken the original Astros deal. 

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Yeah, as time goes on, more and more teams fill there needs and move on from Bregman. At some point, he prices himself out of the market and will have to take a lesser deal. 

He should have just taken the original Astros deal. 

This seems to be the Sox's strategy. If we believe they do actually want him.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Hitch said:

This seems to be the Sox's strategy. If we believe they do actually want him.

I read that the Sox wouldn't offer more than 4 years. The Astros have a 5 year offer on the table. Bregman needs to jump on that Astros offer. 

[moonslav59]

I doubt Bregman will take a one year deal to try and reset his value by having a big year.

I do think Boston and Fenway Park could help him have a very good 2025 season, but he looks to want a longer deal.

If the Astros offer him $130M/5, but we offer him $112M/4 with an opt out after 1-2 years, maybe he takes our offer.

[Bellhorn04]

Seems like another case of the Sox offering less than they know it takes to get it done.  They have a ton of experience at it.  

Not that I want Bregman, at this point I'd actually be happy to read that the Stros signed him.

These drawn-out melodramas of the offseason (reminiscent of Monty last year) really get tiresome and the outcomes are usually anticlimactic. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Seems like another case of the Sox offering less than they know it takes to get it done.  They have a ton of experience at it.  

Not that I want Bregman, at this point I'd actually be happy to read that the Stros signed him.

These drawn-out melodramas of the offseason (reminiscent of Monty last year) really get tiresome and the outcomes are usually anticlimactic. 

It seems to me that the Sox aren't in it as much as Bregman wishes they were. I'm sure Cora wants him here, but Breslow is the boss. 

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

It seems to me that the Sox aren't in it as much as Bregman wishes they were. I'm sure Cora wants him here, but Breslow is the boss. 

Brez is the boss, but he did make a 4 year offer.

Presumably just the usual confusion and dysfunction.   

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Brez is the boss, but he did make a 4 year offer.

Presumably just the usual confusion and dysfunction.   

Maybe they also had an idea what the Astros offer was and underbid it? Maybe they value Bregman at a certain dollar threshold and just refuse to go over it? I'd be more concerned about dysfunction if the Sox got into a bidding war after all the news surrounding Breslow not liking Bregman. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Maybe they also had an idea what the Astros offer was and underbid it? Maybe they value Bregman at a certain dollar threshold and just refuse to go over it? I'd be more concerned about dysfunction if the Sox got into a bidding war after all the news surrounding Breslow not liking Bregman. 

It's pick your poison with these guys.

[jdc69]

6 hours ago, Hitch said:

 

Fair points. I understand that there is a level of secrecy with these things al the time, and not tipping your hat, but being a but more straight up about things would quash a lot of the frenzy people get themselves into, ready clickbait articles that make it appear like the club are in on, and missing out on, everyone. 

But then, maybe they just don't care about things.

There's possibly a difficulty in being open about things, if as suggested, Cora and Breslow come down on different sides of the Bregman debate. 

I do wonder if they even had a plan coming into the off-season concerning a RH bat, other than Teoscar. And if not, why not just resign O'Neill and make life easier? I don't think they're playing chicken with Bregman, I don't think they want him. It feels more like looking for who is left over as the bar is closing, to be crude.

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, jdc69 said:

I do wonder if they even had a plan coming into the off-season concerning a RH bat, other than Teoscar. And if not, why not just resign O'Neill and make life easier? I don't think they're playing chicken with Bregman, I don't think they want him. It feels more like looking for who is left over as the bar is closing, to be crude.

O'Neill signed for 3/49.5. That's more than I would have wanted to spend on an oft injured guy like O'Neill. Teoscar's 3/66 is much more palatable, but the Sox didn't want to go there for whatever reason. 

It sounds like they are counting on a bounceback year from RHB Story and the addition of RHB Campbell instead of going to the FA marketplace. 

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

O'Neill signed for 3/49.5. That's more than I would have wanted to spend on an oft injured guy like O'Neill. Teoscar's 3/66 is much more palatable, but the Sox didn't want to go there for whatever reason. 

Oh, they definitely had their rea$on$.

[notin]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

He's not in a bidding war. There seem to be some teams tentatively interested. I'm saying I find it hard to believe that there are teams wiling to beat that figure (which he would know by now), and therefor find it hard to believe that exact deal is still on the table. Especially as the Astros have made other moves.

It doesn’t need to be a bidding war.  It just takes one team deciding to up their offer.

Also with ST games starting up in a few weeks, a lot can change.  If some teams sees their 3b go down for the year, it could dramatically change interest in Bregman.

Plenty of teams make trades and sign free agents all through February and even March.  These deals can impact Bregman’s market either way.  I doubt he thinks he is sitting on final offers.

The Yankees haven’t even been linked to him.  But does anyone think they really plan to use Oswaldo Peraza and DJ LaMahieu at 3b next year?

[moonslav59]

There is no sure bet that O'Neill will come close to 2024 numbers.

It might not even be 50-50 he hits at 80% of 2024.

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

There is no sure bet that O'Neill will come close to 2024 numbers.

It might not even be 50-50 he hits at 80% of 2024.

But if we re-signed him, we'd be talking about the possibility that he might be healthier and do better in 2025.

🙃 

 

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But if we re-signed him, we'd be talking about the possibility that he might be healthier and do better in 2025.

🙃

Would be a great get for a guy with declining defense and injury issues that cause him to miss 50+ games every year. 

[Bellhorn04]

Meanwhile, Raffy's shoulders are going to be good as new again, because he's been his taking his Advil every day. 

[notin]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Maybe they also had an idea what the Astros offer was and underbid it? Maybe they value Bregman at a certain dollar threshold and just refuse to go over it? I'd be more concerned about dysfunction if the Sox got into a bidding war after all the news surrounding Breslow not liking Bregman. 

There’s apparently also some internal conflict about where Bregman would play, with Breslow seeing him as a way to upgrade corner defense but Cora preferring him as a keystone…

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, notin said:

There’s apparently also some internal conflict about where Bregman would play, with Breslow seeing him as a way to upgrade corner defense but Cora preferring him as a keystone…

Cora doesn't want to break the news to Devers about a position change.

[Hitch]

18 hours ago, notin said:

It doesn’t need to be a bidding war.  It just takes one team deciding to up their offer.

Also with ST games starting up in a few weeks, a lot can change.  If some teams sees their 3b go down for the year, it could dramatically change interest in Bregman.

Plenty of teams make trades and sign free agents all through February and even March.  These deals can impact Bregman’s market either way.  I doubt he thinks he is sitting on final offers.

The Yankees haven’t even been linked to him.  But does anyone think they really plan to use Oswaldo Peraza and DJ LaMahieu at 3b next year?

I mean sure, if there's injuries, things can change a little, but I don't think the Yankees are anywhere near him or Boras would be shouting it from the rooftops. At this stage, more clubs know where they are, with some still scrabbling around to complete their rosters. I don't think we're getting much of any surprises with Bregman going froward. He'll know the teams that are after him, and likely their ballpark figures. 

 

I might be wrong - a team may come in and blow him away. But I would most certainly be surprised to see him top Houston's offer (which I don't believe is there anymore). 

[Hitch]

15 hours ago, notin said:

There’s apparently also some internal conflict about where Bregman would play, with Breslow seeing him as a way to upgrade corner defense but Cora preferring him as a keystone…

I may lose it if we sign him and then stick him at 2nd base. 

[Hitch]

On the O'Neil subject, Sean McAdam stated on the podcast recently that we made a major error in not extending O'Neil the QO. If he says no, we get another compensatory pick and if he takes it, yes we've overpaid but only for 1 year and our RH power bat is taken care of. 

Hard to argue with the logic. 

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, Hitch said:

On the O'Neil subject, Sean McAdam stated on the podcast recently that we made a major error in not extending O'Neil the QO. If he says no, we get another compensatory pick and if he takes it, yes we've overpaid but only for 1 year and our RH power bat is taken care of. 

Hard to argue with the logic. 

Seems like they were concerned he'd accept it, and just didn't think he was worth $21 mill.  

[notin]

13 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I mean sure, if there's injuries, things can change a little, but I don't think the Yankees are anywhere near him or Boras would be shouting it from the rooftops. At this stage, more clubs know where they are, with some still scrabbling around to complete their rosters. I don't think we're getting much of any surprises with Bregman going froward. He'll know the teams that are after him, and likely their ballpark figures. 

 

I might be wrong - a team may come in and blow him away. But I would most certainly be surprised to see him top Houston's offer (which I don't believe is there anymore). 

At this stage a year ago, Corbin Burnes was a Brewer.

Big moves and changes do happen in February.  Of course, it’s not even February yet…

[notin]

17 minutes ago, Hitch said:

On the O'Neil subject, Sean McAdam stated on the podcast recently that we made a major error in not extending O'Neil the QO. If he says no, we get another compensatory pick and if he takes it, yes we've overpaid but only for 1 year and our RH power bat is taken care of. 

Hard to argue with the logic. 

I liked O’Neill, but he’s only played 280 games in the past 3 years.  Im not so sure that counts for the RHB being taken care of.

Not to mention there’s a good chance an attached pick ruins O’Neill’s market and leaves him signing with the Chunichi Dragons, who don’t have to surrender a pick…

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Seems like they were concerned he'd accept it, and just didn't think he was worth $21 mill.  

He's such an up and down player with injury issues and declining defensive skills.

We have Anthony and Campbell ranked top 10. Both can play OF.

I get the one year risk thing, but $20M is a lot, for this team and the winter budget. I'd rather have Buehler & Grichuk.