A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And now it's my turn to utter this gem: hope is not a strategy.

But seriously, these guys have shown an inordinate capacity to fall short on their bids the last several years.  

I don't think anyone would be stunned if it happens again.

I would say it's almost like they want to fall short...

... except we have Yoshida, who they zoomed right in on and overpaid, according to the entire industry -- or according to Scott Boras, who never accepts an early offer when he can stall the entire MLB all winter.

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I would say it's almost like they want to fall short...

... except we have Yoshida, who they zoomed right in on and overpaid, according to the entire industry -- or according to Scott Boras, who never accepts an early offer when he can stall the entire MLB all winter.

It may be just as simple as Henry setting the payroll at $10 million below the first tax threshold or whatever, and leaving it up to baseball operations to figure out the rest.  And then within operations there may be a lot of disagreement about pricing and roster strategy.  

That's the way it looks, anyway.

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That's how I see it. The trade made the window NOW!

Of course, we may extend him, and maybe they already have an extension worked out, but for now, the window may not be better in 1 or more years.

If the plan was to wait for Anthony, Campbell, Mayer and others to be significan't, then we should have waited to make a Crochet-type trade.

If the window was now, there'd be another significant move aside from Crochet. There hasn't been and there isn't a guy left on the FA market that is a NOW move. More trades would only hurt the near future of the team for a deeply flawed team. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It may be just as simple as Henry setting the payroll at $10 million below the first tax threshold or whatever, and leaving it up to baseball operations to figure out the rest.  And then within operations there may be a lot of disagreement about pricing and roster strategy.  

That's the way it looks, anyway.

I think that's where the Sox are at unless some generational talent like Soto is available. 

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd rather just keep Devers at 3B until they have a better option going forward. I think Devers is the 3B until Casas' ARB years run out or is traded. I think adding a stronger 2b and SS combo will help the IF immensely. 

I lean this way as well.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Casas has 4 years left.... UGH!!!!!!!! LEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

The middle IF, once again, will rely on Story's health, but I do think we already have 2B "fixed," defensively.

DHam looked like a plus in 2024 at 2B, and there is no reason to think Campbell will be a minus at 2B. (BTW, Campbell might also be the solution at 3B and not 3B. Maybe he plays 2B v LHPs and 3B vs RHPs.)

I've never thought the Sox would move Devers, as I wish they would. I'm surprised you'd rather keep him there.

Do you think he'd be better at 1B than Casas, who is awful at 1B D? (We could DH Casas or do a 1B/DH share between the two.)

notin mentioned Grissom at 3B or Mayer.

Could we see this?

Vs RHP: Campbell at 3B and DHam at 2B

Vs LHP: Grissom at 3B and Campbell at 2B

Nope. You are going to see Devers at 3b everyday, Casas at 1b everyday, and Yoshida at DH.

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If the window was now, there'd be another significant move aside from Crochet. There hasn't been and there isn't a guy left on the FA market that is a NOW move. More trades would only hurt the near future of the team for a deeply flawed team. 

What to you is a a significant move, and what to the Red Sox is a significant move are most likely two entirely different things. Bue Man to the Red Sox could be a significant move to them. Soto was NEVER coming to Boston, and the high priced long term starting pitcher contracts wasn’t going to be signed either.

[Old Red]

28 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

MOST fans can't name 10 current players. I'm sure they will ultimately not care that it takes one more year to get there. 

I think you’re wrong on Both accounts. 

[drewski6]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If the window was now, there'd be another significant move aside from Crochet. There hasn't been and there isn't a guy left on the FA market that is a NOW move. More trades would only hurt the near future of the team for a deeply flawed team. 

Bregman would still help this team, quite a bit. And hed play second. Getting Devers off third isnt a priority, getting a quality RHB  is. Breg would be fine at 2b.

[drewski6]

No way they are punting on 2025. They may end up looking that way , if we are out of it early, but no way its the plan at present.

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think that's where the Sox are at unless some generational talent like Soto is available. 

The Red Sox are not going to win any bidding wars on any generational talent.🙈🤭

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd rather just keep Devers at 3B until they have a better option going forward. I think Devers is the 3B until Casas' ARB years run out or is traded. I think adding a stronger 2b and SS combo will help the IF immensely. 

Between Story, Mayer, Hamilton, Grissom, and Campbell, I think we have a decent middle infield.

 

Standing by catcher as the biggest need…

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Between Story, Mayer, Hamilton, Grissom, and Campbell, I think we have a decent middle infield.

 

Standing by catcher as the biggest need…

All catchers are mediocre hitters and the dugout handles the pitchers these days. Catchers are JAGs. Sure pitch framing and controlling the run game are nice to haves, but they wont impact our playoff chances as much as adding a middle of the order bat like Bregman.

Bregman for 2b

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

All catchers are mediocre hitters and the dugout handles the pitchers these days. Catchers are JAGs. Sure pitch framing and controlling the run game are nice to haves, but they wont impact our playoff chances as much as adding a middle of the order bat like Bregman.

Bregman for 2b

And for how much money, and for how long are you signing Bregman for at 31? Story has three more years on his contract with Mayer, and Campbell on the horizon, and then you have another 2B who came over for Sale who was supposed to be a hot prospect.

[mvp 78]

29 minutes ago, Old Red said:

What to you is a a significant move, and what to the Red Sox is a significant move are most likely two entirely different things. Bue Man to the Red Sox could be a significant move to them. Soto was NEVER coming to Boston, and the high priced long term starting pitcher contracts wasn’t going to be signed either.

Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell or Max Fried was a significant move for the rotation. Aside from Soto, signing Walker, Adames or Bregman would be significant. I think signing Bregman for 3b would be significant, but that seems to be off the table or it would have been done by now. Trading for Arenado is NOT significant and likely a bad idea. Trading for one of the Mariners starters would be significant. 

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, Old Red said:

And for how much money, and for how long are you signing Bregman for at 31? Story has three more years on his contract with Mayer, and Campbell on the horizon, and then you have another 2B who came over for Sale who was supposed to be a hot prospect.

That's why I wouldn't want him playing 2B. I'm not entirely sure what his market is. I'd be happy with a 3 year deal, but he'll want 5-6 I'm guessing. 

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell or Max Fried was a significant move for the rotation. Aside from Soto, signing Walker, Adames or Bregman would be significant. I think signing Bregman for 3b would be significant, but that seems to be off the table or it would have been done by now. Trading for Arenado is NOT significant and likely a bad idea. Trading for one of the Mariners starters would be significant. 

I agree, but point being none of them are in a Red Sox uniform.

[mvp 78]

34 minutes ago, notin said:

Between Story, Mayer, Hamilton, Grissom, and Campbell, I think we have a decent middle infield.

Standing by catcher as the biggest need…

I would have assumed that a former pitcher like Breslow would be more likely to focus on Catcher, but that hasn't been the case. He just collects depth third catcher types. 

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That's why I wouldn't want him playing 2B. I'm not entirely sure what his market is. I'd be happy with a 3 year deal, but he'll want 5-6 I'm guessing. 

3 year would be better, and a 1 year Beltre type  signing would be great.

[notin]

29 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

All catchers are mediocre hitters and the dugout handles the pitchers these days. Catchers are JAGs. Sure pitch framing and controlling the run game are nice to haves, but they wont impact our playoff chances as much as adding a middle of the order bat like Bregman.

Bregman for 2b

First of all, the idea of moving the reigning AL Gold Glove winner at 3b to a new position to accommodate the worst defensive 3b in MLB seems flawed to me.

 

And as big RHBs go, not sure what to make of Bregman.  His OPS+ of 118 ranks him just ahead of Wilyer  (114) on the Sox roster, and his oWAR of 3.5 ranks him just ahead of Connor Wong (2.7).  And neither of these guys are big game-changing bats.  In fact, both are guys many Sox fans want to replace.  Couple that with Bregman struggling more against LHP the last two years, and I am not sure what he brings.  I’d only want him as a defensive upgrade at 3b, and that scenario is unlikely…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

If the window was now, there'd be another significant move aside from Crochet. There hasn't been and there isn't a guy left on the FA market that is a NOW move. More trades would only hurt the near future of the team for a deeply flawed team. 

Exactly. The window SHOULD be , now, but instead we get halfway measures- maybe just enough to give fans enough hope to not revolt.

[moonslav59]

57 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Nope. You are going to see Devers at 3b everyday, Casas at 1b everyday, and Yoshida at DH.

I know this.

That won't stop me from saying what I think is a better plan.

[mvp 78]

50 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Bregman would still help this team, quite a bit. And hed play second. Getting Devers off third isnt a priority, getting a quality RHB  is. Breg would be fine at 2b.

He'd be ok at 2B. He hasn't really played much MIF in the past few years and should be a corner IFer as he ages most likely. His best fit is 3B. Moving him to 2B just clogs up the roster for Mayer and Campbell, guys who will be better than Bregman in a few years. 

I personally don't believe they need to add a RHB due to Story coming back and Campbell getting promoted. Casas and Devers don't have platoon issues. Anthony doesn't seem to have platoon issues in MiLB, which is generally indicative of future success. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Exactly. The window SHOULD be , now, but instead we get halfway measures- maybe just enough to give fans enough hope to not revolt.

The window was open until your cliff. The window hasn't been opened again and will remain shut until further notice. Saying it should be now is basically meaningless. It's just a fans impatience. 

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

First of all, the idea of moving the reigning AL Gold Glove winner at 3b to a new position to accommodate the worst defensive 3b in MLB seems flawed to me.

 

And as big RHBs go, not sure what to make of Bregman.  His OPS+ of 118 ranks him just ahead of Wilyer  (114) on the Sox roster, and his oWAR of 3.5 ranks him just ahead of Connor Wong (2.7).  And neither of these guys are big game-changing bats.  In fact, both are guys many Sox fans want to replace.  Couple that with Bregman struggling more against LHP the last two years, and I am not sure what he brings.  I’d only want him as a defensive upgrade at 3b, and that scenario is unlikely…

Quite a dismissal , using superficial stats. He had a .833 OPS second half of last year, despite a .250 BABIP, which is terrible luck. Adjust for luck, and its .850, in line with his career average. 31 years old isnt 35.

A gold glove winner at 3b who came up a SS is obviously a plus 2b defensively.  And you can always move him to 3b if someone gets hurt or theres a trade.

Bregman is still a very good baseball player. Dont overthink it.

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I know this.

That won't stop me from saying what I think is a better plan.

Well you asked if "we could see it" with "it" being a platoon at 3b of Campbell and Grissom

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

A gold glove winner at 3b who came up a SS is obviously a plus 2b defensively.  

He was basically David Hamilton at SS 6 years ago. Does that mean he'd necessarily be a good 2B now? I'm not so sure. I don't know why the Sox are so interested in putting players at positions where they don't really belong. 

[moonslav59]

Just now, drewski6 said:

Well you asked if we "could see it" with it being a platoon at 3b of Campbell and Grissom

That does sound like I think it could happen. I did not mean to imply that.

I know they are tied to Devers at 3B until Casas or Yoshida are gone.

To me, I'd make the move now, even without adding Bregman or Arenado.

Either start Campbell at 3B and go with a DHam Grissom platoon at 2B or give Grissom some time at 3B and Campbell times at 3B and 2B. Devers and Casas share DH/1B duty and Yoshida is benched, dumped or forced to win the LF job.

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He was basically David Hamilton at SS 6 years ago. Does that mean he'd necessarily be a good 2B now? I'm not so sure. I don't know why the Sox are so interested in putting players at positions where they don't really belong. 

"good" at 2b? Im sure.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Quite a dismissal , using superficial stats. He had a .833 OPS second half of last year, despite a .250 BABIP, which is terrible luck. Adjust for luck, and its .850, in line with his career average. 31 years old isnt 35.

A gold glove winner at 3b who came up a SS is obviously a plus 2b defensively.  And you can always move him to 3b if someone gets hurt or theres a trade.

Bregman is still a very good baseball player. Dont overthink it.

.795 OPS over the last 4 and 5 years. He would add some RHB help, but not enough. His plus O and plus-plus D at 3B is what fulfils his true value.

We have a weakness at 3B. Don't overthink it.