A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

That sound fine but I’ll believe Henry doesn’t dumpster dive AGAIN for talent. 
Burnes>Pivetta (we aren’t getting Saski)

Hernandez>Bregman

Blow this and we’re a last place team again!

Did the Jays and Rays somehow get better this offseason and I didn't hear about it? 

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

That sound fine but I’ll believe Henry doesn’t dumpster dive AGAIN for talent. 
Burnes>Pivetta (we aren’t getting Saski)

Hernandez>Bregman

Blow this and we’re a last place team again!

 

 

TOR & TBR are not getting better.

The Yanks added a lot (Fried, Bellinger, D Williams) , but they also lost Soto, Holmes & Cortes.

I doubt we finish in last, even if all we do is re-sign Pivetta and Jansen.

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Did the Jays and Rays somehow get better this offseason and I didn't hear about it? 

We got worse. How many players did we lose this offseason so far?

[FredLynn]

54 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

TOR & TBR are not getting better.

The Yanks added a lot (Fried, Bellinger, D Williams) , but they also lost Soto, Holmes & Cortes.

I doubt we finish in last, even if all we do is re-sign Pivetta and Jansen.

I was exaggerating a bit. I think we should still finish ahead of the Jays but the Rays are always competitive. Unless we sign a bona fide RH power hitter like Hernandez and a very good SP we will not sniff the playoffs again, mostly because Henry is STILL penny pinching as he goes "full throttle up to and exceeding the spending limit". Its still early. Those moves could still be made. But until they are made I'll believe nothing has changed.

BTW, has everyone seen that the team is "very interested" in Saski? Interpretation: if he can be had for a lowball price he's more than welcome to join the roster.

[notin]

9 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

We got worse. How many players did we lose this offseason so far?

The Sox lost Pivetta, O’Neill and Jansen.  Martin, too, but his 0.2 bWAR isn’t irreplaceable.

They added Crochet and Chapman.  And expect to get back Story, Whitlock, Hendriks, and  Fulmer, all of whom played very little last season or missed it entirely..

Safe bet Tampa and Toronto had some players as well…

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

We got worse. How many players did we lose this offseason so far?

Winter is not over, yet, but...

Crochet>Pivetta + pen games

Jansen, Martin, Anderson, Keller ??=?? Chapman, Hendriks, Fulmer, Wilson & Whitlock

O'Neill ??>?? Anthony & Campbell (more OF time by Rafaela, as he should not play SS.)

McGuire/DJansen ?? >> ??  Narvaez

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

We got worse. How many players did we lose this offseason so far?

Pivetta who was in and out of the rotation the past few years was replaced by Crochet.

Jansen and Martin who were replaced by Hendriks, Chapman and probably others including internal options like Whitlock.

Tyler O'Neill who is such a miss by ownership because the Sox never replaced oney year RHB OF phenoms like  Hunter Renfroe's RBI production or Adam Duvall's April production with any FA since they left. It's just impossible to find a RHB on a one year deal and have them perform cheaply in Boston! Also, the number one prospect in baseball: Roman Anthony. 

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Pivetta who was in and out of the rotation the past few years was replaced by Crochet.

In 2023, yes, but no so much the other 3 years.

2021: 30 GS/  1 RP gm

2022: 33 GS/ 0 RP gm

2023: 16 GS/ 22 RP gms

2024: 26 GS/ 1 RP gm (15 days on IL)

Nobody else came close to starting as many games for the Sox, since 2019.

107 Pivetta, 73 Nate, 71 Houck, 69 Crawford & Bello

IP: 633 Pivetta, 431 Houck, 408 Nate, 392 Crawford, 377 Bello

Pivetta leads in both areas from '22-'24, too.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Nobody else came close to starting as many games for the Sox, since 2019.

Yeah, he had a head start. 

[moonslav59]

Same years as Nate (4).

Houck started more games than Pivetta in 2020 (3-2.)

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Same years as Nate (4).

Houck started more games than Pivetta in 2020 (3-2.)

Nate had 19, COVID, 21, 22

Pivetta had 21, 22, 23, 24

C'mon man! 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Nate had 19, COVID, 21, 22

Pivetta had 21, 22, 23, 24

C'mon man! 

 

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Nate had 19, COVID, 21, 22

Pivetta had 21, 22, 23, 24

C'mon man! 

Come on, Man, what? Give nate 33 starts in 2020, and he still is lower than Nick.

[moonslav59]

40 Man Roster Changes this Winter

PLUS: Crochet & Narvaez by trade, Chapman & Wilson by free agency and Jh Garcia & Dobbins by Rule 5 protecting.

MINUS: Pivetta, O'Neill, K Jansen, Martin, DJansen, E Valdez, Sims & Garcia (not counting players who are not on the 40 but still in the system or players who left the team before the end of the season.)

Notables who left during the season: McGuire, P Reyes & C Anderson

[moonslav59]

One of the stories on the possible Casas to SEA trade rumors was that they were looking for a RHB 1Bman, not a lefty. Now, there is a rumor they are looking at Josh Naylor- a LHB.

Would you do Casas for Castillo? If SEA says no, would you add Rafaela or DHam?

I doubt SEA does Casas, Abreu & Fitts for Miller or Woo.

[FredLynn]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Pivetta who was in and out of the rotation the past few years was replaced by Crochet.

Jansen and Martin who were replaced by Hendriks, Chapman and probably others including internal options like Whitlock.

Tyler O'Neill who is such a miss by ownership because the Sox never replaced oney year RHB OF phenoms like  Hunter Renfroe's RBI production or Adam Duvall's April production with any FA since they left. It's just impossible to find a RHB on a one year deal and have them perform cheaply in Boston! Also, the number one prospect in baseball: Roman Anthony. 

Anthony is a prospect. Nothing more. 
Crochet is an upgrade no doubt. But we need more to be relevant (ie play October baseball). Ownership promised “full throttle” last year and this year bellowed that they would spend up to and over the LT limit. Last year was another dumpster dive. What have they spent so far? Crickets as far as I can tell.

ACTIONS! Not meaningless hollow words!

[Duran Is The Man]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

One of the stories on the possible Casas to SEA trade rumors was that they were looking for a RHB 1Bman, not a lefty. Now, there is a rumor they are looking at Josh Naylor- a LHB.

Would you do Casas for Castillo? If SEA says no, would you add Rafaela or DHam?

I doubt SEA does Casas, Abreu & Fitts for Miller or Woo.

Casas for Castillo is insane. why give them anything, when Castillo is nothing more than a salary dump for them?

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Anthony is a prospect. Nothing more. 
Crochet is an upgrade no doubt. But we need more to be relevant (ie play October baseball). Ownership promised “full throttle” last year and this year bellowed that they would spend up to and over the LT limit. Last year was another dumpster dive. What have they spent so far? Crickets as far as I can tell.

ACTIONS! Not meaningless hollow words!

I agree: we need to see action, as in some serious spending to show a true commitment.

I would not call Crochet "crickets," but Chapman and he are not nearly enough to show an improvement over a team that missed the playoffs.

While I agree that Anthony, as well as Campbell and Mayer are pure speculative values, I am near certain one or two will be plusses, this year. I mean how sure are we of DHam, Grissom, Narvaez or even Rafaela (or Abreu v LHPs?)

Make big signing or two moderate ones, one more trade from surplus areas and we should be much better on paper. If we look much better but disappoint, well, at least we can say we tried.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

41 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Casas for Castillo is insane. why give them anything, when Castillo is nothing more than a salary dump for them?

If the M's were the Cubs, they'd pay the Yankees to take him.

[Duran Is The Man]

24 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

If the M's were the Cubs, they'd pay the Yankees to take him.

no doubt.

[harmony]

2 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Casas for Castillo is insane. why give them anything, when Castillo is nothing more than a salary dump for them?

Steamer ranks Luis Castillo 38th among all pitchers in projected 2025 WAR with 2.8, a fraction ahead of Tanner Houck:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=&stats=pit&type=steamer

ZiPS is more bullish on Castillo with a projected 2025 WAR of 3.3.

A trade of Castillo would not be a salary dump. The veteran righthander may well open the 2025 season in the Seattle rotation.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Casas for Castillo is insane. why give them anything, when Castillo is nothing more than a salary dump for them?

Castillo is better than Crawford, Gio and Bello, but we could get some money thrown in.

[moonslav59]

Mitch Keller is no top of rotation starter, but he'll be just 29 in April. The Pirates extended him, and back-loaded the deal, so they appear to be looking to unload him, already (year 2 of a 5 year deal.) He'll be 33, when his contract ends. His tax hit is a reasonable $15.4M. (He'd get more as a FA.)

His 3 year numbers: 4.13 ERA (103 ERA+) 3.92 FIP/1.31 WHIP with about 9Ks and 3 BB per 9IP (1.1 HR/9)

Here is how he ranks among 153 SP'ers with 200+ IP since 2022:

15th in IP at 525 and 14th in GS, so looks durable & dependable

35th in fWAR at 7.5 (avg 2.5 per season) Near Wacha & Bassitt

59th in xFIP at 3.91 (Near Flaherty, Monty and Bello) 63rd in FIP at 3.93

77th in ERA- at 97 (Near Singer, Rodon, Monty, Flaherty & Stroman)

By the rankings, he looks like an okay #3 SP'er, with a solid workload that pushes his value up to maybe an okay #2.

So, to me, he looks like an upgrade over Crawford and Giolito and maybe Bello, depending on what direction Bello takes. I'd like him in our rotation, but would prefer we just sign Burnes or not have to give up anything and just sign Flaherty or Manaea.

What would it take to get him? His salary is a drag on PIT's budget: $15,4M>$16.9M>$18.4M>20.4M, but he's not a "dump."

I certainly would not give a top 3 prospect for him, and would hesitate to give up Arias, but I would consider Abreu or Bleis, Cespedes or JH Garcia. I'm not sure they'd take Rafaela, even if we added DHam.

If we were looking to expand the trade, maybe asking for switch-hitting Reynolds to play LF might be a fit, instead of signing Teoscar or Santander. His career splits are .842 vs R and .772 v L, so he does not really fit the big bat v LHP need. He turns 30, soon and is signed through 2030 at a tax hit of just $13.3M. His pay goes up, too, but not as quickly as Keller's. I'm not sure I really want him. I think I'd rather keep Abreu & Rafaela.

 

[moonslav59]

Top FAs left, per MLBTR projections:

200/7 Burnes (might get 250/8)

182/7 Bregman (might get 200/8)

125/5 Alonso (maybe 130/5)

115/5 Flaherty (125/5?)

80/4 Santander (95/5?)

60/3 Teoscar (69/3)

60/3 Manaea (66/3?)

(End of top 11)

56/4 Scott (64/4?)

44/4 Hoffman (48/4?)

27/3 Estevez (30/3?)

Not interested....

45/3 Profar (56/4?)

36/2 Torres (45/3?)

24/2 Pederson & Heaney (25/2?)

(End of top 25)

Others of interest:

21/1 Pivetta (76/4?)

20/2 Quintana  (22/2)

16/2 Minter (17/2)

14/1 Yates (15/1)

14/2 Kittredge (15/2), 13/2 Kahnle, 11/1 Robertson, Jansen, Martin, Sewald

16/1 Scherzer, 15/1 Buehler, 13/1 Gibson, 12/1 Verlander, Morton, L Lynn

 

[notin]

On 12/19/2024 at 3:40 PM, moonslav59 said:

One of the stories on the possible Casas to SEA trade rumors was that they were looking for a RHB 1Bman, not a lefty. Now, there is a rumor they are looking at Josh Naylor- a LHB.

Would you do Casas for Castillo? If SEA says no, would you add Rafaela or DHam?

I doubt SEA does Casas, Abreu & Fitts for Miller or Woo.

Are the Sox really going to ad another SP?

Currently on the 40 man roster they have Crochet, Houck, Bello, Giolito, Crawford, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins and Criswell.  And reportedly they plan to try and return Fulmer to a SP role.  And now Sandoval, who cannot be moved to the 60 day IL until Spring Training.

That’s 11 starting pitchers out of 40 players. Sure, a couple (few?) might eventually fall back into bullpen roles at some point.  But that’s kind of a lot of SP numerically to have at this point in the offseason…

[Duran Is The Man]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Are the Sox really going to ad another SP?

Currently on the 40 man roster they have Crochet, Houck, Bello, Giolito, Crawford, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins and Criswell.  And reportedly they plan to try and return Fulmer to a SP role.  And now Sandoval, who cannot be moved to the 60 day IL until Spring Training.

That’s 11 starting pitchers out of 40 players. Sure, a couple (few?) might eventually fall back into bullpen roles at some point.  But that’s kind of a lot of SP numerically to have at this point in the offseason…

the only possible pitcher i see them adding is Buehler. he perfectly fits the type of pitcher Henry now seeks -rehab projects on short-term deals as opposed to long-term deals with healthy pitchers.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Duran Is The Man said:

the only possible pitcher i see them adding is Buehler. he perfectly fits the type of pitcher Henry now seeks -rehab projects on short-term deals as opposed to long-term deals with healthy pitchers.

Hey. maybe we can plan of Buehler for 15 starts to start the year, then swap places on the IL with Sandoval, and Sandoval can finish the season with 15 starts. 15+15=30.

WHAT A PLAN!!!!

[Duran Is The Man]

55 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Hey. maybe we can plan of Buehler for 15 starts to start the year, then swap places on the IL with Sandoval, and Sandoval can finish the season with 15 starts. 15+15=30.

WHAT A PLAN!!!!

i like it. why pay someone healthy like Burnes (or Fried) when you can pay two injured guys nearly the same money to sit on the bench?

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i like it. why pay someone healthy like Burnes (or Fried) when you can pay two injured guys nearly the same money to sit on the bench?

Same money?

[Duran Is The Man]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Same money?

i said "nearly" the same money. especially when you consider that in reality, they are paying Sandoval $18.5 for one year (next season) as he'll be just like Paxton and not do anything the first year but draw a check.