A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

Adding one quality and dependable pitcher would help. Burnes or Scott are the two top prizes, but Flaherty or Hoffman would be nice. I'm not sure Manaea, Pivetta, Buehler or Esteves does it for me.

Add a SP'er and Crawford gives the pen a big boost as an innings eater.

Add a solid RP'er and it pushes the rest of the pen down a notch on the high leverage v medium to low leverage scale of useage.

One pitcher would make our depth look nicer: two would make it very nice. Look here:

SP: Burnes, Crochet, Houck, Bello, Gio

RP: Hoffman, Chapman, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckowski, Wilson

(No clear weak link)

This would be our AAA/AAAA depth:

SP: Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins (non 40: Fulmer, Gambrell, Drohan, Early, I Coffey)

RP: Guerrero, Penrod, Bernardino, Shugart, Kelly, Booser, Weissert (non 40: I Campball, Mata, Mills, Sandlin, Hoppe, Troye)

We just need the will to get it done.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Before Soto the largest contract Cohen gave out was $341 million to Lindor.  I know $765 million is a lot of money but everyone has a limit.  No way he would have spent $1.6 billion dollars on a player. 

That's literally more than double what he got now

That's my point. Even the nuttiest owners have a limit, and they compare the cost to what else they could get for he same money. At some point, the balance tips and they walk away. 

With JH it was apparently $700M (maybe slightly more, if he thought it might get the prize.) With Cohen, we don't know. I just don't believe he'd go even near $1B, let alone $1.6B. Nobody would.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

"Just watch the kids play!" - that sounds like music to JH's ears.  

I'm sure that's what he thinks. I hate having feelings that validate the direction he chooses.

I do think we can do both: let the 3 kids play and splurge a little more.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Adding one quality and dependable pitcher would help. Burnes or Scott are the two top prizes, but Flaherty or Hoffman would be nice. I'm not sure Manaea, Pivetta, Buehler or Esteves does it for me.

Add a SP'er and Crawford gives the pen a big boost as an innings eater.

Add a solid RP'er and it pushes the rest of the pen down a notch on the high leverage v medium to low leverage scale of useage.

One pitcher would make our depth look nicer: two would make it very nice. Look here:

SP: Burnes, Crochet, Houck, Bello, Gio

RP: Hoffman, Chapman, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckowski, Wilson

(No clear weak link)

This would be our AAA/AAAA depth:

SP: Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins (non 40: Fulmer, Gambrell, Drohan, Early, I Coffey)

RP: Guerrero, Penrod, Bernardino, Shugart, Kelly, Booser, Weissert (non 40: I Campball, Mata, Mills, Sandlin, Hoppe, Troye)

We just need the will to get it done.

Maybe that's Sam's urgency, and maybe why Brez keeps talking up Raffy at 3B -- to hint that guys like Bregman and Arenado aren't happening... hopefully, because the remaining budget will be devoted to PITCHING.

[notin]

5 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Maybe that's Sam's urgency, and maybe why Brez keeps talking up Raffy at 3B -- to hint that guys like Bregman and Arenado aren't happening... hopefully, because the remaining budget will be devoted to PITCHING.

The biggest need on this team is far and away a good defensive catcher.  A good catcher can make your pitchers better if he excels at pitch framing.

Right now we have Connor Wong back there literally losing strike calls because of his poor framing skills.  Getting Burnes to pitch to Wong would be like buying an original Manet and sticking on your fridge with magnets...

[Bellhorn04]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I really don't think the $21.3B v $6B is the deciding factor. The bidding would never get near $6B, so it's really about the owner's willingness to go to absurd levels to "get his guy." How will we ever know just how absurd Cohen would have gotten?

Anyway, it doesn't really matter. The point that matters to me is whether JH was really prepared to pay $700M, or if he'd have gone to $725M, if he felt that had a chance of winning the bidding. If he was, then I'm encouraged, a little, that his spending might go up, soon, If it was all for show, then the sham has kicked into overdrive.

Maybe the spreadsheet guys had some projections that a $700 million investment in a 26 year old superstar had an excellent chance of being recoverable.

 

[Hugh2]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That's my point. Even the nuttiest owners have a limit, and they compare the cost to what else they could get for he same money. At some point, the balance tips and they walk away. 

With JH it was apparently $700M (maybe slightly more, if he thought it might get the prize.) With Cohen, we don't know. I just don't believe he'd go even near $1B, let alone $1.6B. Nobody would.

But Cohen never really spent an unreasonable amount of money, he just bought a lot of players.  Sprinkle in a few high AAV but short years E.G. the Verlander/Scherzer.

Soto is out of the norm...even for them. 

[notin]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I really don't think the $21.3B v $6B is the deciding factor. The bidding would never get near $6B, so it's really about the owner's willingness to go to absurd levels to "get his guy." How will we ever know just how absurd Cohen would have gotten?

Anyway, it doesn't really matter. The point that matters to me is whether JH was really prepared to pay $700M, or if he'd have gone to $725M, if he felt that had a chance of winning the bidding. If he was, then I'm encouraged, a little, that his spending might go up, soon, If it was all for show, then the sham has kicked into overdrive.

Henry was willing to put $700mill on the table.  This is a big step up.  If he had been willing to put half of that on one player in 2020, we would never have needed to talk about Soto... 

[Bellhorn04]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That's my point. Even the nuttiest owners have a limit, and they compare the cost to what else they could get for he same money. At some point, the balance tips and they walk away. 

With JH it was apparently $700M (maybe slightly more, if he thought it might get the prize.) With Cohen, we don't know. I just don't believe he'd go even near $1B, let alone $1.6B. Nobody would.

No, that level of irrationality would not happen.  It never does.  But Cohen probably went into this knowing it might get to $750-800 million-which you could argue is plenty irrational-and he was perfectly comfortable with it.  He also showed his smarts by bending over backward to show Soto just about anything would be done to get him to sign and Soto would be treated better than a family member LOL  

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

But Cohen never really spent an unreasonable amount of money, he just bought a lot of players.  Sprinkle in a few high AAV but short years E.G. the Verlander/Scherzer.

Yeah, but that resulted in a 375 million payroll and a 100 million tax bill for 2023, a total of 475 million.  I'm gonna have to say that's insane money however you look at it.

[notin]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm sure that's what he thinks. I hate having feelings that validate the direction he chooses.

I do think we can do both: let the 3 kids play and splurge a little more.

I don't know why it has to be an either/or.  Especially since the Sox biggest needs (catcher, pitching) are not readily available from the farm... 

[Hugh2]

15 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, but that resulted in a 375 million payroll and a 100 million tax bill for 2023, a total of 475 million.  I'm gonna have to say that's insane money however you look at it.

no argument here, I'm not saying he's not insane.  I'm just saying it's been more about QTY than just drastically overpaying for guys. 

Soto's 51 million per year.  According to fangraphs the last few years he's been worth: $65 $48 $30 & $54 million; and most guys put up much better stats from 25-30 than they did from 20-25.  Soto isn't arguably overpaid AT ALL, the worry is....you're paying him to keep that up for 15 years. 

But it's not like they're paying him $100 million a year.  This argument that Cohen would spend anything on anyone....as if he'd go up to 1.6 billion on Soto is just unfounded. 

[Bellhorn04]

28 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

no argument here, I'm not saying he's not insane.  I'm just saying it's been more about QTY than just drastically overpaying for guys. 

Soto's 51 million per year.  According to fangraphs the last few years he's been worth: $65 $48 $30 & $54 million; and most guys put up much better stats from 25-30 than they did from 20-25.  Soto isn't arguably overpaid AT ALL, the worry is....you're paying him to keep that up for 15 years. 

But it's not like they're paying him $100 million a year.  This argument that Cohen would spend anything on anyone....as if he'd go up to 1.6 billion on Soto is just unfounded. 

Of course he wouldn't go to 1.6 billion, that was just moon playing in his hypotheticals room.  The fact is he didn't have to!

I think Steve Cohen is very familiar with the joke about the two guys running away from a bear:

You don't have to outrace the bear.  You just have to outrace your buddy. 

In this case the buddy was Hal Steinbrenner.  And Hal did reportedly have a chance to equal or beat Cohen's winning offer, but he decided he'd had enough and it was time to lay down.  

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Maybe the spreadsheet guys had some projections that a $700 million investment in a 26 year old superstar had an excellent chance of being recoverable.

 

I happen to think the offer was legit.

Maybe the same spread sheet people don't think Burnes is worth $240M/7 or $260M/8. I get that.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Maybe that's Sam's urgency, and maybe why Brez keeps talking up Raffy at 3B -- to hint that guys like Bregman and Arenado aren't happening... hopefully, because the remaining budget will be devoted to PITCHING.

I'll never argue against pitching being a higher priority.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I don't know why it has to be an either/or.  Especially since the Sox biggest needs (catcher, pitching) are not readily available from the farm... 

No love for Narvaez?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

But Cohen never really spent an unreasonable amount of money, he just bought a lot of players.  Sprinkle in a few high AAV but short years E.G. the Verlander/Scherzer.

Soto is out of the norm...even for them. 

Indeed, but the guy has limits. Remember when he signed some guys, then traded them the next summer?

If money is nothing to him, why did he do that?

[notin]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

No love for Narvaez?

No.

Hes another interchangeable Sandy Leon/Ryan Hanigan type.

[Bellhorn04]

40 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Indeed, but the guy has limits. Remember when he signed some guys, then traded them the next summer?

If money is nothing to him, why did he do that?

Of course money isn't nothing to him.  That's a straw man.  You don't get that rich without having a lot of love for money.  

Cohen is crazy but he's not a fool, you might say.  He's the guy who wants it all.  He wants to outspend everyone else when necessary, but he also wants to be the smartest guy when necessary.  And he's got a pretty smart CBO now in Stearns.  And the new manager seemed to do a good job in 2024.

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Of course money isn't nothing to him.  That's a straw man.  You don't get that rich without having a lot of love for money.  

Cohen is crazy but he's not a fool, you might say.  He's the guy who wants it all.  He wants to outspend everyone else when necessary, but he also wants to be the smartest guy when necessary.  And he's got a pretty smart CBO now in Stearns.  And the new manager seemed to do a good job in 2024.

Most people who got filthy rich do not have a habit of spending willy nilly, but once you get to Billions, luxury items don't have to be cost-effective.

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Most people who got filthy rich do not have a habit of spending willy nilly, but once you get to Billions, luxury items don't have to be cost-effective.

Right.  And Cohen's Mets are not cost-effective.  They've incurred some heavy bottom line losses.

The Mets are a vanity asset and labor of love for Cohen, obviously.  He's living out a fantasy of owning his favorite sports team.  And he wants to deliver rings to that team, badly. 

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Right.  And Cohen's Mets are not cost-effective.  They've incurred some heavy bottom line losses.

The Mets are a vanity asset and labor of love for Cohen, obviously.  He's living out a fantasy of owning his favorite sports team.  And he wants to deliver rings to that team, badly. 

I do think that is the situation, and in that context, maybe he would go to any length, but why isn't he signing Fried and Burnes, too. He must have some self-imposed limits.

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Indeed, but the guy has limits. Remember when he signed some guys, then traded them the next summer?

If money is nothing to him, why did he do that?

That's exactly my point, he's not going to spend into infinity just because he's rich.  In a vacuum, the Mets haven't really signed anyone to an insanely absurd overpriced contract.  They've just spent a lot of money. 

It's like, if you have two cars, and I'm rich and I own 25, I can still have paid market value for all of them and spend more money on cars than you.  Just because I'm rich and own a lot of cars it doesn't mean I'm going to pay $250,000 for the $100,000 corvette. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

That's exactly my point, he's not going to spend into infinity just because he's rich.  In a vacuum, the Mets haven't really signed anyone to an insanely absurd overpriced contract.  They've just spent a lot of money. 

It's like, if you have two cars, and I'm rich and I own 25, I can still have paid market value for all of them and spend more money on cars than you.  Just because I'm rich and own a lot of cars it doesn't mean I'm going to pay $250,000 for the $100,000 corvette. 

He may have ended up spending $250K for a $100K Corvette, if someone else kept bidding, but we don't know that. At some point, he'd give up and just buy the $150K Ferrari.

 

[Hugh2]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He may have ended up spending $250K for a $100K Corvette, if someone else kept bidding, but we don't know that. At some point, he'd give up and just buy the $150K Ferrari.

 

 Yeah, I mean Steven Cohen could pay 1 billion dollars for an ice cream cone if he really wanted too, it doesn't mean hes' going to do it. 

He's a billionaire. He's more likely to buy the farm that raises the cows and the company that makes the ice cream. 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

 Yeah, I mean Steven Cohen could pay 1 billion dollars for an ice cream cone if he really wanted too, it doesn't mean hes' going to do it. 

He's a billionaire. He's more likely to buy the farm that raises the cows and the company that makes the ice cream. 

Just buy an island and start his own baseball league.

[moonslav59]

ZIPS:

3.5 Crochet, 2.7 Houck, 2.2 Bello, 1.6 Crawford, 1.4 Giolito, 1.3 Priester & Fitts, 1.0 Criswell, 0.9 Dobbins

1.4 Whitlock, 1.3 Wink, 0.9 Chapman, 0.6 Slaten, 0.3 Hendriks

3.8 Devers, 3.7 Duran,

2.5 Campbell, 2.3 Anthony, 2.2 Abreu, 2.1 Rafaela

1.6 Yoshida & Grissom, 1.5 Casas & DHam, 1.3 Story

1.2 Romy & Gasper, 1.1 Ref & Westbrook, 1.0 Mayer

0.9 Wong & Narvaez

"...almost every player is projected to be average or better, with decent depth at most positions. Even at catcher, which is projected to be their worst position (now that they’ve traded Kyle Teel), the Red Sox should get an acceptable level of mediocrity...Campbell and Roman Anthony project to be Boston’s third- and fourth-best offensive players, respectively.."

[moonslav59]

The more key players come off the FA market, the more a trade might be our only hope.

If we end up signing Teoscar or Santander, it almost forces an Abreu trade. If we fully trust Anthony with maybe Campbell as a FT OF'er, we could trade Abreu and Rafaela. I do think Rafaela would be an excellent utility player, although a bit expensive for that.

If we end up signing Burnes, Flaherty, Manaea or Pivetta, I guess some want to include Buehler, we would not have to trade to make room for him on the 13 man staff. We can move Crawford to the pen and demote our worst RP'er with options to AAA. (Chapman, Wilson and Hendriks are the only pitchers out of options.)

If they sign a quality RP'er- same thing.

If they sign Bregman, they could trade Casas or go overboard to dump Yoshida.

[FredLynn]

23 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Adding one quality and dependable pitcher would help. Burnes or Scott are the two top prizes, but Flaherty or Hoffman would be nice. I'm not sure Manaea, Pivetta, Buehler or Esteves does it for me.

Add a SP'er and Crawford gives the pen a big boost as an innings eater.

Add a solid RP'er and it pushes the rest of the pen down a notch on the high leverage v medium to low leverage scale of useage.

One pitcher would make our depth look nicer: two would make it very nice. Look here:

SP: Burnes, Crochet, Houck, Bello, Gio

RP: Hoffman, Chapman, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckowski, Wilson

(No clear weak link)

This would be our AAA/AAAA depth:

SP: Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins (non 40: Fulmer, Gambrell, Drohan, Early, I Coffey)

RP: Guerrero, Penrod, Bernardino, Shugart, Kelly, Booser, Weissert (non 40: I Campball, Mata, Mills, Sandlin, Hoppe, Troye)

We just need the will to get it done.

That sound fine but I’ll believe Henry doesn’t dumpster dive AGAIN for talent. 
Burnes>Pivetta (we aren’t getting Saski)

Hernandez>Bregman

Blow this and we’re a last place team again!