A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Look at all those names when they became Red Sox and notice that none are/were in their primes in Boston (though Martin was near-perfect in '23).

Relievers and closers in particular fluctuate frequently. But there's nothing more secure for a team than having a lock-down back-end, game-over bullpen: Eck and Mo -- and their underrated set-up men -- set the standard.

Every Boston champ this century had a shutdown closer: Foulke, Papelbon, Koji, Kimbrel (well, until the last month of '18). But none of them ever last long; Diaz and the trumpets, Hader... Williams in NY?

Tanner Scott is 30 and has been good for... only two years. Is there any possible way a guy like John Henry thinks a guy like that is worthy of a large, longterm investment?

 

I'm a firm believer in the need for a lock-down closer.

No, I don't think JH will okay signing Scott- maybe not about the 2 years of success thing, but more about his need to get 4-5 years at about $15-17M per year.

I'd be okay with Hoffman or a trade for Helsley, but Helsley only has one year of control.

I realize RP'ers are up and down, often, and the best you can do is just build up a good pen on paper, and hope they don't all tank at once. To me, we have about 8 pitchers who profile and very nice 8th men in the pen or AAA pen depth. That's not a put-down. I think we will need that depth, as we always do. I think we have a decent 2-7 guys in the pen, but when you make them 1-6, they may not even be average. (This is assuming Crawford is in the pen.)

We need a closer, or at worst, a very solid set-up guy, AND Crawford pushes to the pen.

[moonslav59]

In a sense, we really added Hendriks and Fulmer for 2025, not 2024, so we can say this is our significant  net plus & minus:

Plus: Crochet, Hendriks, Fulmer, Wilson, Narvaez

Minus: Pivetta, Jansen, Martin, O'Neill (HR leader and big RHB), Valdez (most games started at 2B) [Minor: McGuire, D Smith, Chase Anderson (11th in IP) and Keller]

[moonslav59]

We have to act, now. We can't wait for the window to open in 2026 or 2027, despite the incoming top prospects timelines. 

Houck reaches free agency in 2028. That may be the end of the window. (maybe not.) Whitlock in '27. Duran & Crawford in '29, along with some others.

We don't have ig stars leaving, soon.

Act NOW!

 

[notin]

43 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

In a sense, we really added Hendriks and Fulmer for 2025, not 2024, so we can say this is our significant  net plus & minus:

Plus: Crochet, Hendriks, Fulmer, Wilson, Narvaez

Minus: Pivetta, Jansen, Martin, O'Neill (HR leader and big RHB), Valdez (most games started at 2B) [Minor: McGuire, D Smith, Chase Anderson (11th in IP) and Keller]

Plus Whitlock, too…

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

Plus Whitlock, too…

I was going to say him, since he only started 4 games, but then what about Story?

Casas and Slaten missed some time, too. Devers missed time and played hurt other times. Yoshida.

I just figure, what we gain from them, we may lose from others, but yes, if 100% healthy, we could see some major additions.

Story is huge, especially for SS defense, where Rafael, DHam & Co were awful on D.

Casas could make up for O'Neill's loss, as Tyler missed some time, too.

Whitlock could be a huge plus, but is a wildcard.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

57 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

In a sense, we really added Hendriks and Fulmer for 2025, not 2024, so we can say this is our significant  net plus & minus:

Front office interns just ran to all the Assistant Vice Presidents to show them this line. 

Sam's taking them all out to lunch -- and Henry's gladly paying that bill.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Front office interns just ran to all the Assistant Vice Presidents to show them this line. 

Sam's taking them all out to lunch -- and Henry's gladly paying that bill.

It's not like saying WE did anything special by adding hendriks and Fulmer.

Maybe lunch a Burger King.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's not like saying WE did anything special by adding hendriks and Fulmer.

Maybe lunch a Burger King.

Stockpiling Broken Promises R US

[Bellhorn04]

Look folks, they tried for Soto and they tried for Fried.  That's some really big trying for this year.  They're kind of worn out now.

But they'll try again next year.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Stockpiling Broken Promises R US

Good one.

I do like Hendriks better than Wilson, for what that is worth.

The addition of Crochet was very nice, but just Crochet, Chapman, Hendriks, Narvaez and Wilson fall far short of what I felt we needed to make serious gains, this year. I'm not even sure they equal what we lost: Pivetta, Jansen, Martin & O'Neill plus McGuire/Jansen.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Look folks, they tried for Soto and they tried for Fried.  That's some really big trying for this year.  They're kind of worn out now.

But they'll try again next year.

It has been sad, for sure, so far. It matters little that we "tried" for bigger fish than last couple winter's Eflin, Monty, and other mid level FAs. There was the false Yamo flag raised, but it was brought down, quickly.

JH needs a win. If he doesn't see that, I'm jumping on the ousting bandwagon.

[moonslav59]

If we are lucky with few injuries, maybe we could see this comp to 2024's IP by Pitcher:

2024>2025 IP Optimistic View:

184> 184 Crawford (if not used in pen and as spot starter) +0

179>199 Houck +20

162>182 Bello +20

146 Pivetta> 176 Crochet +30

85 as SP Criswell> 175 Giolito +90 (lessen pen games and spot starts)

That's 160 more IP from our top 5 SP'ers- perhaps best case

76>76 Wink (hopefully, no GS) +0

63>43 Weissert -20

57>37 Kelly -20

55>65 Slaten +10

55 Jansen> 55 Hendriks +0

44 Martin> 64 Whitlock as RP +20

52 Anderson> 52 Wilson & Fulmer +0

51 Bernardino> 51 Guerrero +0

45 Keller & Fitts> 45 Fitts & Priester

These are rough estimates.

 

[moonslav59]

Possible PA comps from 2024 to 2025:

735>735 Duran (maybe more, if not suspended)

601>651 Devers +50

571>471 Rafaela -100 (No SS play) Anthony might reduce this further.

487>437 Wong -50

473 O'Neill> 0 -473

106>606 Story +500

447>497 Abreu +50(unless Anthony takes over)

421>521 Yoshida +100

243 Casas + 278 Smith + 93 Dalbec + 75 Cooper>689 Casas +0

317>317 DHam +0 (maybe less with mayer & Campbell call-ups)

307>357 Refsnyder +50

254 McGuire + Jansen> 294 Narvaez +50 (see Wong -50)

216>216 Romy +0

223 EValdez> 223 Campbell +0

114>314 Grissom +200 (unless Campbell steals the show)

 

[drewski6]

32 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It has been sad, for sure, so far. It matters little that we "tried" for bigger fish than last couple winter's Eflin, Monty, and other mid level FAs. There was the false Yamo flag raised, but it was brought down, quickly.

JH needs a win. If he doesn't see that, I'm jumping on the ousting bandwagon.

I dont think that "win" is pitching or bust. I think Teoscar would be a sizeable win.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I dont think that "win" is pitching or bust. I think Teoscar would be a sizeable win.

I'm not so sure. While we need a RHB, we are already crowded in the OF, before Anthony ets called up. (Campbell can also play OF.) Yoshida and Ref can play LF in a pinch, as well.

We need Pitching, pitching, pitching and a catcher.

[drewski6]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not so sure. While we need a RHB, we are already crowded in the OF, before Anthony ets called up. (Campbell can also play OF.) Yoshida and Ref can play LF in a pinch, as well.

We need Pitching, pitching, pitching and a catcher.

Its hard for me to square you saying we need a bat while also implying its need is behind 3 additional pitchers and a catcher

 

[moonslav59]

53 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Its hard for me to square you saying we need a bat while also implying its need is behind 3 additional pitchers and a catcher

 

We need 5 things, with a RHB near #4 or #5. (Okay, maybe the last 3 slots are tied for 3rd.)

1. Ace or #2

2. Closer

3. another solid RP

4. A real catcher

5. a big RHB

On replacing O'Neill and then some vs LHPs.

RHB Story is back. Casas hits LHPs well. He's back. Devers played hurt, and it hurt his numbers vs LHPs, when usually he does fine vs them. I expect Campbell to play some in 2025. He's a RHB. Anthony has good splits in the minors, but it's hard to know if that translates, well.

I do think Teoscar or Santander would be a nice add, and if it allowed us to get a decent pitcher for Abreu, who sucks vs LHPs, that could balance the line-up and help the pitching staff.

I'm just not sure I'd call either a "big splash."

Our 26 is unbalanced: hitting is very good $5th to 10th best), defense very bad (25th to 30th), pitching still looking 15th to 20th, IMO. If JH gets Burnes and Hoffman, then I'd be thrilled to get a big RHB. If we spend on a RHB and let pitching slide, I'm not thrilled, at all.

You can disagree, but you at least have to understand my position, right?

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We need 5 things, with a RHB near #4 or #5. (Okay, maybe the last 5 slots are tied for 3rd.)

1. Ace or #2

2. Closer

3. another solid RP

4. A real catcher

5. a big RHB

On replacing O'Neill and then some vs LHPs.

RHB Story is back. Casas hits LHPs well. He's back. Devers played hurt, and it hurt his numbers vs LHPs, when usually he does fine vs them. I expect Campbell to play some in 2025. He's a RHB. Anthony has good splits in the minors, but it's hard to know if that translates, well.

I do think Teoscar or Santander would be a nice add, and if it allowed us to get a decent pitcher for Abreu, who sucks vs LHPs, that could balance the line-up and help the pitching staff.

I'm just not sure I'd call either a "big splash."

Our 26 is unbalanced: hitting is very good $5th to 10th best), defense very bad (25th to 30th), pitching still looking 15th to 20th, IMO. If JH gets Burnes and Hoffman, then I'd be thrilled to get a big RHB. If we spend on a RHB and let pitching slide, I'm not thrilled, at all.

You can disagree, but you at least have to understand my position, right?

I think we're getting hazy on need priority vs the splashiness.

Aside from Burnes, the "splashiest" move not yet made may be TH.

I agree that no more pitching acquisitions would be disappointing.

If we sign TH for 4 yrs at 25M (100m total)
Sign Hoffman for 3 yrs 40m total (13.3m/yr)
Sign Buehler to the Gio deal (2 yrs at around 19 each, with an opt out after yr 1).

I would consider the TH signing the biggest move of the three, and Id be happy with the offseason.

I agree we need more pitching, but dont necessarily agree that our "splashiest" move not yet made has to be for a pitcher for it to be a good offseason.

While I would prefer Manaea to Buehler (and of course Burnes over either), I can see a path to myself being satisfied without a huge move for a pitcher.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I think we're getting hazy on need priority vs the splashiness.

Aside from Burnes, the "splashiest" move not yet made may be TH.

I agree that no more pitching acquisitions would be disappointing.

If we sign TH for 4 yrs at 25M (100m total)
Sign Hoffman for 3 yrs 40m total (13.3m/yr)
Sign Buehler to the Gio deal (2 yrs at around 19 each, with an opt out after yr 1).

I would consider the TH signing the biggest move of the three, and Id be happy with the offseason.

I agree we need more pitching, but dont necessarily agree that our "splashiest" move not yet made has to be for a pitcher for it to be a good offseason.

While I would prefer Manaea to Buehler (and of course Burnes over either), I can see a path to myself being satisfied without a huge move for a pitcher.

A bigger splash than Hoffman is disappointing, to me.

(I think Bregman would be a bigger splash, and way more expensive, but I only consider that, if Devers is moved to 1B, and we still add someone like Hoffman, too.)

I'm okay with putting catcher below the RHB need. I'm okay putting a third pitcher below a big RHB.

I do think we need a big RHB, but maybe not as much as some of you. (I also think we can trade Abreu for pitching of a RHB just like him but with reverse splits.)

[Larry Cook]

6 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Look folks, they tried for Soto and they tried for Fried.  That's some really big trying for this year.  They're kind of worn out now.

But they'll try again next year.

The deep end of the pool has huge players in it! You are not going to outspend them! We did an amazing job of helping run up the price tag this year! No shame on being outspent by cohen!!!!

at Cristie’s auction house a few years ago, cohen outspent everybody for a copy of “the scream” by munck! The guys he beat for that painting were probably pissed, but I doubt they belly ached about it forever! 
we tried hard this year, but the deeper pockets will always win! 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

The deep end of the pool has huge players in it! You are not going to outspend them! We did an amazing job of helping run up the price tag this year! No shame on being outspent by cohen!!!!

at Cristie’s auction house a few years ago, cohen outspent everybody for a copy of “the scream” by munck! The guys he beat for that painting were probably pissed, but I doubt they belly ached about it forever! 
we tried hard this year, but the deeper pockets will always win! 

The thing is, JH could have paid Soto $1.5 Billion. You think "deep pockets" Cohen bid $1.6B?

All these guys are rich enough to bid into insanity. It's more about who wants it than who has an extra few $ Billion in the bank.

 

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

The thing is, JH could have paid Soto $1.5 Billion. You think "deep pockets" Cohen bid $1.6B?

All these guys are rich enough to bid into insanity. It's more about who wants it than who has an extra few $ Billion in the bank.

 

Cohen is a Mets zealot! We are not outbidding him 

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Cohen is a Mets zealot! We are not outbidding him 

So, he'd have bid $1.6B for Soto?

[Larry Cook]

23 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

So, he'd have bid $1.6B for Soto?

Whatever it takes, he would do it. 

[moonslav59]

So, how have the best AL teams of 2024 done, so far?

NYY: Added Fried, Bellinger and D Williams

BAL: Added Sugano, O'Neill and G Sanchez

CLE: nothing major

HOU: Added Paredes/ Lost  Tucker (may lose Bregman)

DET: Added Alex Cobb

KCR: nothing major

BOS: Added Crochet, Chapman, Narvaez (Lost O'Neill and may lose Pivetta, Jansen, Martin)

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Whatever it takes, he would do it. 

I doubt he'd have gone that high.

He could get Burnes, Fried, Bregman and Alonso for that, and then some.

[Larry Cook]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I doubt he'd have gone that high.

He could get Burnes, Fried, Bregman and Alonso for that, and then some.

Have you ever worked on the street??? The thrill of the kill is what these guys live for!!!!?

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Have you ever worked on the street??? The thrill of the kill is what these guys live for!!!!?

I drove a taxi. I worked salting Cod on the docks of Portland. I worked a smally rendering plant. I think that qualifies.

I don't see why AZ wants Yoshida, or what this has to do with street kill.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

BOS: Added Crochet, Chapman, Narvaez (Lost O'Neill and may lose Pivetta, Jansen, Martin)

Only 13 more days until next year.

This offseason, with Sam Kennedy and his front office displaying "extreme urgency to compete for the American League East championship and to set ourselves up for a deep postseason run in 2025 without question"... the Red Sox:

1. lost a starting pitcher and replaced him with a better one;

2. lost both a closer and set-up man in their late-30s, and replaced them with two others in their late-30s;

3. lost the back-up catcher and replaced him with a minor leaguer;

4. lost the team home run leader and right-handed swinging middle order bat... and did not replace him with anyone.

In a Sirius interview yesterday, Breslow repeated how "excited" they are to have Rafael Devers as the third baseman -- because they hired some new coaches.

Management understands that fans demand World Series rings every season, but please... stop asking so many urgent questions!

 

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Only 13 more days until next year.

This offseason, with Sam Kennedy and his front office displaying "extreme urgency to compete for the American League East championship and to set ourselves up for a deep postseason run in 2025 without question"... the Red Sox:

1. lost a starting pitcher and replaced him with a better one;

2. lost both a closer and set-up man in their late-30s, and replaced them with two others in their late-30s;

3. lost the back-up catcher and replaced him with a minor leaguer;

4. lost the team home run leader and right-handed swinging middle order bat... and did not replace him with anyone.

In a Sirius interview yesterday, Breslow repeated how "excited" they are to have Rafael Devers as the third baseman -- because they hired some new coaches.

Management understands that fans demand World Series rings every season, but please... stop asking so many urgent questions!

 

The winter is not over, but it sure looks bleak. I'm really not thrilled with anyone, leftover, even if we get one or two at last minute bargain rates.

The pen was the worst in the majors over the second half, and despite most pen arms being volatile, our pen looks worse, on paper. The Chapman, Hendriks, Wilson and Whitlock additions don't outweigh the loss of our best two RP'ers since Kimbrel in 2017-2018.

I think our offense can make up for O'Neill's loss, and if Story can remain healthy and with EValdez's departure, our middle IF defense should be much improved. The fixation with keeping Devers at 3B is troublesome. Casas is no better at 1B. Maybe Narvaez can fix the awful catcher D, but we still have those three positions ranked bottom 5.