A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

There was this little thing called Covid that year that may of had an impact on thought processes. 

$360 million dollars in a world filled with much more uncertainty is worth a lot more than $360 in a more predictable world. 

Maybe it did, maybe it didn't. 

 

I doubt if we'd offered $360mil in '19 he says no to test the market, but we'll never know, which is my point. Absolutes and facts need to be tossed aside in this case. Nobody has them to produce.

[Bellhorn04]

30 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Maybe it did, maybe it didn't. 

 

I doubt if we'd offered $360mil in '19 he says no to test the market, but we'll never know, which is my point. Absolutes and facts need to be tossed aside in this case. Nobody has them to produce.

The primary fact is that they traded him with a year left on his contract.  From which comes the fact that they ceased efforts to extend him.  And now Zack Scott seems to have confirmed that their final offer to him was close to but short of $300 million.   

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

But then signed an extension with the Dodgers before free agency? I'm not sure what the truth is around the whole thing, but there's a lot of guesswork that's stated as fact around this topic.

As an aside, Zach Scott (former vice president of baseball research and development - who eventually served as assistant general manager), said: 

“We only signed Sale once we knew we couldn’t sign Mookie,” Scott shared.

“We made our best and final [offer] to Mookie in spring 2019, and once it was clear it wasn’t happening, we almost immediately pivoted to Sale. I guess all that cash was burning a hole in someone’s pocket."

 

Two f*** ups in one. 

I think Covid played a hand in the signing before free agency, also the amount offered.

I'm not sure, if Betts would have take $360M from BOD, had we offered it before the trade, so yes, maybe it wasn't 100% about wanting to test free agency. 

Personally, I think he might have taken $360M, had JH allowed that offer. 

We'll never know.

I'd rather have Betts at $365M/12 than Soto at $650M+/14 years.

[Hitch]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Covid played a hand in the signing before free agency, also the amount offered.

I'm not sure, if Betts would have take $360M from BOD, had we offered it before the trade, so yes, maybe it wasn't 100% about wanting to test free agency. 

Personally, I think he might have taken $360M, had JH allowed that offer. 

We'll never know.

I'd rather have Betts at $365M/12 than Soto at $650M+/14 years.

Completely agree on the last point. It's not even close. 

 

I imagine Ownership would, too, if they could have their time again. 

[moonslav59]

The A’s and free agent righty Luis Severino are in agreement on a three-year, $67MM

What will Pivetta get?

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The A’s and free agent righty Luis Severino are in agreement on a three-year, $67MM

What will Pivetta get?

About the same? 

Sevy is younger, threw more innings and had about the same bWAR as Pivetta last season, but has had a more up and down career recently. 

Moving to OAK will be good for Sevy as the large foul territory will help him out... Wait... He's playing in a AAA stadium for the next few years and that's the reason they had to overpay him? Ok. 

[Bellhorn04]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The A’s and free agent righty Luis Severino are in agreement on a three-year, $67MM

What will Pivetta get?

I don't know, but that has to be the A's biggest contract outlay in quite some time.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 12/4/2024 at 5:32 AM, mvp 78 said:

He's going to get too much money for not enough return. Pass. 

I agree but the Sox probably won't

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

The A’s and free agent righty Luis Severino are in agreement on a three-year, $67MM

What will Pivetta get?

That is a VERY odd one. For all involved.

[Bellhorn04]

27 minutes ago, Hitch said:

That is a VERY odd one. For all involved.

That $67 million is more than the entire A's payroll for 2024.  

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That $67 million is more than the entire A's payroll for 2024.  

I expected someone to complain we were outbid by the A's.

[Larry Cook]

Why are we still talking about betts, he is dead and gone!! 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Why are we still talking about betts, he is dead and gone!! 

Every now again, we still get a Bagwell mention or even Babe Ruth.

It's never going away, even if Betts declines quickly.

[moonslav59]

I'm not for the idea of skimping on pitching to add to an offense that already has multiple top non pitching prospects banging on the door, but what would this team look like?

Sign Soto, Adames or Bregman and Hoffman, plus trade Mayer, Abreu, Fitts and Cespedes for Pablo Lopez & Jeffries. Trade Yoshida (+ cash) Rafaela & Meidroth for Monty

Lopez, Houck, Monty, Bello, Giolito

Hoffman, Chapman, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Crawford, Wilson

1. Duran CF

2. Soto LF

3. Devers 1B/DH

4. Adames or Bregman 3B

5. Casas DH/1B

6. Story SS

7. Anthony RF

8. Campbell 2B

9. Wong-Jeffries C

Bench: Jeffries or Wong, Refsnyder, DHam, Grissom

 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not for the idea of skimping on pitching to add to an offense that already has multiple top non pitching prospects banging on the door, but what would this team look like?

Sign Soto, Adames or Bregman and Hoffman, plus trade Mayer, Abreu, Fitts and Cespedes for Pablo Lopez & Jeffries. Trade Yoshida (+ cash) Rafaela & Meidroth for Monty

Lopez, Houck, Monty, Bello, Giolito

Hoffman, Chapman, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Crawford, Wilson

1. Duran CF

2. Soto LF

3. Devers 1B/DH

4. Adames or Bregman 3B

5. Casas DH/1B

6. Story SS

7. Anthony RF

8. Campbell 2B

9. Wong-Jeffries C

Bench: Jeffries or Wong, Refsnyder, DHam, Grissom

 

One of the most expensive 87 win teams ever created. 

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

One of the most expensive 87 win teams ever created. 

Only 6 wins better than 2024?

[notin]

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The A’s and free agent righty Luis Severino are in agreement on a three-year, $67MM

What will Pivetta get?

5 years $125mill…

[notin]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Every now again, we still get a Bagwell mention or even Babe Ruth.

It's never going away, even if Betts declines quickly.

And we’d probably mention Curt Schilling if he didn’t make his timely return…

[mvp 78]

50 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Only 6 wins better than 2024?

It's a really terrible pitching staff you created for a very expensive roster. Monty and Gio in the same rotation could be a real expensive stinker. Pablo is fine, but he Sox would have much control over him for what they gave up. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

One of the most expensive 87 win teams ever created. 

But only because the 2019 Red Sox fell 3 wins short…

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's a really terrible pitching staff you created for a very expensive roster. Monty and Gio in the same rotation could be a real expensive stinker. Pablo is fine, but he Sox would have much control over him for what they gave up. 

Did you miss Pablo Lopez and Hoffman, too?

Yes, Monty is expensive, but we shed Yoshida & Rafaela's contracts, too.

[mvp 78]

 

[Duran Is The Man]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

 

they are preparing people for the let down.

[mvp 78]

53 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Did you miss Pablo Lopez and Hoffman, too?

Yes, Monty is expensive, but we shed Yoshida & Rafaela's contracts, too.

I specifically mentioned Lopez in my response. You overpaid on a trade for Lopez who had a great 2023, but has just been pretty good otherwise, especially when you look at Statcast (35th percentile run value last year). His only plus pitch last year was his 4 seamer. Hoffman just replaces Martin. You don't lose the Yoshida contract as you attached cash with it. You didn't clarify how much. Now you're paying for a guy that won't even appear. 

[moonslav59]

We really do need pitching, pitching, pitching, with a RHB and catcher far behind in the "needs" scale.

It makes sense that to add a positional player, it would have to be a major impact player.

Out our best players and near ML ready prospects, we can see how unbalanced we are.

Pitchers: Houck and maybe Slaten, Whitlock, Bello and Perales...

Everyday: Devers, Duran, Anthony, Campbell, Teel, Mayer and maybe Casas, Abreu, Story, Meidroth...

[moonslav59]

Three way deal:

To BOS: Luis Castillo SP1, Ryan Helsley Closer & Mitch Garver C/DH

To SEA: Arenado, Mayer and Fitts
To STL: Yoshida +$5M a year from BOS, Kelly, Cespedes & Arias

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I specifically mentioned Lopez in my response. You overpaid on a trade for Lopez who had a great 2023, but has just been pretty good otherwise, especially when you look at Statcast (35th percentile run value last year). His only plus pitch last year was his 4 seamer. Hoffman just replaces Martin. You don't lose the Yoshida contract as you attached cash with it. You didn't clarify how much. Now you're paying for a guy that won't even appear. 

Not much cash for Yoshida, if any, year one, but in later years, maybe half his deal as Monty has 1 year left. We still save $9M a year for 2026 and 2027. We also save on rafaela's deal, that you dislike.

I wasn't aware Monty will not "appear" in 2025.

 

[notin]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not for the idea of skimping on pitching to add to an offense that already has multiple top non pitching prospects banging on the door, but what would this team look like?

Sign Soto, Adames or Bregman and Hoffman, plus trade Mayer, Abreu, Fitts and Cespedes for Pablo Lopez & Jeffries. Trade Yoshida (+ cash) Rafaela & Meidroth for Monty

Lopez, Houck, Monty, Bello, Giolito

Hoffman, Chapman, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Crawford, Wilson

1. Duran CF

2. Soto LF

3. Devers 1B/DH

4. Adames or Bregman 3B

5. Casas DH/1B

6. Story SS

7. Anthony RF

8. Campbell 2B

9. Wong-Jeffries C

Bench: Jeffries or Wong, Refsnyder, DHam, Grissom

 

Jeffries?  Get a catcher who can play catcher.  Not one that makes Connor Wong look like Yadira Molina.

 

Christian Vazquez makes more sense if you want a former Twin.  Or just sign Danny Jansen, Carson Kelly or Elias Diaz…

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Jeffries?  Get a catcher who can play catcher.  Not one that makes Connor Wong look like Yadira Molina.

 

Christian Vazquez makes more sense if you want a former Twin.  Or just sign Danny Jansen, Carson Kelly or Elias Diaz…

Vaz is not good on D, either. Jeffers would just be a bridge to Teel, and another RHB, who could DH or PH.

He has real power.

40th in ISO from 2023-2024 (800+ PAs)

56th in SLG (higher than Raleigh, Reynolds, Bregman & Chapman)

We need RHB power.

I'm not happy with the D, either.

[mvp 78]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Vaz is not good on D, either.

Vaz 2024:

78th percentile fielding run value

84th percentile framing

63rd percentile blocks

Wong and Jeffers are about the same defensive profile. Bad. Both are bottom 15th percentile in blocks and franking but have decent pop times/caught stealing.