A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[harmony]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Maybe in Seattle.  Mayer fits a need and certainly has more potential than Abreu.  Not sure Boston is up for that.

Witjout checking, I think that deal heavily favors Seattle on BTV…

One problem with Baseball Trade Values is that the site likely undervalues Seattle rifght-hanker Luis Castillo.

Does Blake Snell's reported $182 million contract increase Castillo's trade value?

Castillo, who has a no-trade clause, has three years and $73.5 million remaining on his contract with a vesting option for a fourth year.

Snell and Castillo, who were born eight days apart, have each made 211 starts in their MLB careers.

Snell has posted 24.5 fWAR and 23.4 bWAR over 1,096.2 innings while Castillo has posted 23.9 fWAR and 24.0 bWAR over 1,230 innings. Over the past four seasons Snell has made 103 starts while Castillo has made 121 starts.

Their contrasting 2024 numbers cannot be ignored but at what point does recency bias creep into the equation? Over the three previous seasons Snell posted 9.9 fWAR in 83 starts covering 436.2 innings while Castillo posted 10.9 fWAR in 91 starts covering 535 innings.

Castillo disappointed this year with a 2.3 fWAR but Snell has dropped below that level on multiple full-season occasions.

A healthy Snell may well have the higher ceiling on a given day but Castillo has been more durable and reliable. Each quality provides value.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

C'mon harms.  Boston fans pine for pitching, that's all.  

And Seattle fans probably wouldn't object to getting one of the Sox big 4 prospects, I don't think. 

Harms has it in for Mayer and always like their prospects more than ours.

His point about Robles being better than Abreu makes sense, but they can make room for Abreu's bat vs RHPs by DH'ing him or Robles/Arozarena vs righties.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, harmony said:

One problem with Baseball Trade Values is that the site likely undervalues Seattle rifght-hanker Luis Castillo.

Does Blake Snell's reported $182 million contract increase Castillo's trade value?

Castillo, who has a no-trade clause, has three years and $73.5 million remaining on his contract with a vesting option for a fourth year.

Snell and Castillo, who were born eight days apart, have each made 211 starts in their MLB careers.

Snell has posted 24.5 fWAR and 23.4 bWAR over 1,096.2 innings while Castillo has posted 23.9 fWAR and 24.0 bWAR over 1,230 innings. Over the past four seasons Snell has made 103 starts while Castillo has made 121 starts.

Their contrasting 2024 numbers cannot be ignored but at what point does recency bias creep into the equation? Over the three previous seasons Snell posted 9.9 fWAR in 83 starts covering 436.2 innings while Castillo posted 10.9 fWAR in 91 starts covering 535 innings.

Castillo disappointed this year with a 2.3 fWAR but Snell has dropped below that level on multiple full-season occasions.

A healthy Snell may well have the higher ceiling on a given day but Castillo has been more durable and reliable. Each quality provides value.

Well said. I think a lot of focus is given to "recency" as a pitchers is about to turn 32.

OPS Against:

.611 age 29

.671 age 30

.705 age 31

[harmony]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Harms has it in for Mayer and always like their prospects more than ours.

His point about Robles being better than Abreu makes sense, but they can make room for Abreu's bat vs RHPs by DH'ing him or Robles/Arozarena vs righties.

A Seattle defensive outfield of Julio Rodriguez, Victor Robles and Wilyer Abreu has some attraction (with Randy Arozarena moving to designated hitter and Luke Raley to first base). However, Abreu is not worth the price of an established, cost-controlled starting pitcher.

Marcelo Mayer is a fine prospect who, like all prospects, incuding Seattle's, face risky attrition rates.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, harmony said:

A Seattle defensive outfield of Julio Rodriguez, Victor Robles and Wilyer Abreu has some attraction (with Randy Arozarena moving to designated hitter and Luke Raley to first base). However, Abreu is not worth the price of an established, cost-controlled starting pitcher.

Marcelo Mayer is a fine prospect who, like all prospects, incuding Seattle's, face risky attrition rates.

"Cost controlled" at negative value according to some. You can sign a similar pitcher at the same money- even a younger one.

Abreu may end up as nothing more than an excellent platoon RF'er, but he has 5 years of control and should improve with age.

Of course, Mayer's value is speculative, but so were the prospects you guys traded to get Castillo, in the first place.

I think Castillo is clearly in decline. He turns 32, soon. I think you may be thinking he's worth more than he is worth- perhaps the same way we are overvaluing Abreu and Mayer.

It's hard to know how much SEA's top brass values players like Mayer and Abreu. Hell, they may want someone else, we haven't even thought of.

[harmony]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

"Cost controlled" at negative value according to some. You can sign a similar pitcher at the same money- even a younger one.

Abreu may end up as nothing more than an excellent platoon RF'er, but he has 5 years of control and should improve with age.

Of course, Mayer's value is speculative, but so were the prospects you guys traded to get Castillo, in the first place.

I think Castillo is clearly in decline. He turns 32, soon. I think you may be thinking he's worth more than he is worth- perhaps the same way we are overvaluing Abreu and Mayer.

It's hard to know how much SEA's top brass values players like Mayer and Abreu. Hell, they may want someone else, we haven't even thought of.

It's not surprising that a Red Sox fan and a Mariner fan would value each opponent's players differently.

We should celebrate the diversity of opinion.

Luis Castillo is not included among Seattle's estasblished, cost-controlled starting pitchers. Still, the durable Castillo retains value as a starter who over the past four years has averaged 30 starts a season with a 3.51 ERA. Castillo's "clear decline" still posted a WAR higher than 8-day-older Blake Snell has posted in multiple earlier seasons.

Wilyer Abreu could well improve with age ... unless he does not. Steamer projects Abreu with a 2025 WAR of 1.8 after the rookie posted 3.1 fWAR this year.

Again, the Red Sox and Mariners probably don't match up in a major trade.

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, harmony said:

It's not surprising that a Red Sox fan and a Mariner fan would value each opponent's players differently.

We should celebrate the diversity of opinion.

Luis Castillo is not included among Seattle's estasblished, cost-controlled starting pitchers. Still, the durable Castillo retains value as a starter who over the past four years has averaged 30 starts a season with a 3.51 ERA. Castillo's "clear decline" still posted a WAR higher than 8-day-older Blake Snell has posted in multiple earlier seasons.

Wilyer Abreu could well improve with age ... unless he does not. Steamer projects Abreu with a 2025 WAR of 1.8 after the rookie posted 3.1 fWAR this year.

Again, the Red Sox and Mariners probably don't match up in a major trade.

I understand why we value players differently.

I don't understand why STEAMER moves Abreu's defense from +6.3 to -3.1 for 2025. That makes no sense, to me. They also moved his offense from 8.5 to 3.9- a more than 50% drop off.

To be fair, they did this to Robles: -0.4 to -4.2 on D and +20.7 to + 5.1 on O (a 75% drop on O.)

I think we do match up for a major trade, especially with Castillo. (I agree that Yoshida is highly unlikely as part of a SEA-BOS trade, even as just a money balance.)

Of course, if SEA does not value Mayer, Meidroth, DHam or Grissom , then a deal may not work. I doubt we trade Campbell, but if we offered him, I think that changes the likelihood.

Involving a third team makes projecting a trade nearly impossible.

[notin]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

One problem with Baseball Trade Values is that the site likely undervalues Seattle rifght-hanker Luis Castillo.

Does Blake Snell's reported $182 million contract increase Castillo's trade value?

Castillo, who has a no-trade clause, has three years and $73.5 million remaining on his contract with a vesting option for a fourth year.

Snell and Castillo, who were born eight days apart, have each made 211 starts in their MLB careers.

Snell has posted 24.5 fWAR and 23.4 bWAR over 1,096.2 innings while Castillo has posted 23.9 fWAR and 24.0 bWAR over 1,230 innings. Over the past four seasons Snell has made 103 starts while Castillo has made 121 starts.

Their contrasting 2024 numbers cannot be ignored but at what point does recency bias creep into the equation? Over the three previous seasons Snell posted 9.9 fWAR in 83 starts covering 436.2 innings while Castillo posted 10.9 fWAR in 91 starts covering 535 innings.

Castillo disappointed this year with a 2.3 fWAR but Snell has dropped below that level on multiple full-season occasions.

A healthy Snell may well have the higher ceiling on a given day but Castillo has been more durable and reliable. Each quality provides value.

Luis Castillo turns 32 in a couple days and is owed over $72mill over the next 3 years.  As his surplus value is (-$6.1mill), this means their valuation of him has him worth about 8 fWAR over those 3 years, or roughly 2.3-2.4 fWAR per year, which was his approximate  worth last season.  He is NOT undervalued like he was a couple months back when his surplus value was around (-$24mill) or so.  If anything, he’s probably a bit overvalued now.

A deal of Mayer plus Yoshida is worth about $28mil in surplus value.  Even if the Mariners paid $15mill, it’s still most definitely an overpayment by Boston on that model, and probably on every model used by every MLB team ever…

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Luis Castillo turns 32 in a couple days and is owed over $72mill over the next 3 years.  As his surplus value is (-$6.1mill), this means their valuation of him has him worth about 8 fWAR over those 3 years, or roughly 2.3-2.4 fWAR per year, which was his approximate  worth last season.  He is NOT undervalued like he was a couple months back when his surplus value was around (-$24mill) or so.  If anything, he’s probably a bit overvalued now.

A deal of Mayer plus Yoshida is worth about $28mil in surplus value.  Even if the Mariners paid $15mill, it’s still most definitely an overpayment by Boston on that model, and probably on every model used by every MLB team ever…

As much as I have tried to construct a trade involving Yoshida and Castillo, I seriously doubt SEA takes Yoshida. A more likely trade would be something going to SEA for Castillo + $15-20M. That would make Castillo more attractive to BOS than signing a FA SP'er.

If the Sox viewed Garver as a capable back-up catcher for Wong, until Teel is ML ready, maybe we could include Yoshida as a money balancer, and not as filling some major need by SEA.

Mayer + Yoshida for Castillo + Garver would not be accepted by BTV, and maybe not by Brez & JH, either, but I think I'd do it.

I'm not sure how much SEA values Mayer, or if they view him as ML ready could be the deciding factor.

Would Mayer for Castillo + $10M a year be acceptable to both sides?

[harmony]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Luis Castillo turns 32 in a couple days and is owed over $72mill over the next 3 years.  As his surplus value is (-$6.1mill), this means their valuation of him has him worth about 8 fWAR over those 3 years, or roughly 2.3-2.4 fWAR per year, which was his approximate  worth last season.  He is NOT undervalued like he was a couple months back when his surplus value was around (-$24mill) or so.  If anything, he’s probably a bit overvalued now.

A deal of Mayer plus Yoshida is worth about $28mil in surplus value.  Even if the Mariners paid $15mill, it’s still most definitely an overpayment by Boston on that model, and probably on every model used by every MLB team ever…

If something that is not needed is on sale for 50 percent off, is that a bargain for its buyer?

The Baseball Trade Values valuations are probably too volatile as Luis Castillo's valuation went from a negative $30.6 million on November 8 to a negative $3.1 million on November 17 to a negative $6.1 million on November 20 ... before the Dodgers signed Blake Snell to a $182 million contract.

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, harmony said:

If something that is not needed is on sale for 50 percent off, is that a bargain for its buyer?

The Baseball Trade Values valuations are probably too volatile as Luis Castillo's valuation went from a negative $30.6 million on November 8 to a negative $3.1 million on November 17 to a negative $6.1 million on November 20 ... before the Dodgers signed Blake Snell to a $182 million contract.

After deferments, the Snell signing was not all that much more than projections.

If SEA traded Castillo, they could sign any of these guys for similar money. Most are younger and have similar STEAMER projections for 2025 and should be better in following years, due to age.

STEAMER has Castillo increasing his value from 2.3 to 2.8. He is owed $23M x 3 with a tricky option.

$26M x 6 Fried (3.2 projected/3.4 in '24)

$23M x 5 Flaherty (2.5 from 3.2)

$22M x 2 Eovaldi (2.8 from 2.7)

$21M x 1 Pivetta (2.5 from 2.0)

$17M x 3 Severino (1.9 from 2.1)

Of course, the Sox could just sign one of these guys, instead of trading a top prospect for Castillo, but the idea of SEA including some offset cash would maybe allow BOS to also sign Scott or another RP'er and a catcher.

You mention how Snell improves Castillo's value, but so do these FA options for BOS when lookin at trading for a 32 year old pitcher owed $23M x 3.

 

[Duran Is The Man]

44 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

After deferments, the Snell signing was not all that much more than projections.

If SEA traded Castillo, they could sign any of these guys for similar money. Most are younger and have similar STEAMER projections for 2025 and should be better in following years, due to age.

STEAMER has Castillo increasing his value from 2.3 to 2.8. He is owed $23M x 3 with a tricky option.

$26M x 6 Fried (3.2 projected/3.4 in '24)

$23M x 5 Flaherty (2.5 from 3.2)

$22M x 2 Eovaldi (2.8 from 2.7)

$21M x 1 Pivetta (2.5 from 2.0)

$17M x 3 Severino (1.9 from 2.1)

Of course, the Sox could just sign one of these guys, instead of trading a top prospect for Castillo, but the idea of SEA including some offset cash would maybe allow BOS to also sign Scott or another RP'er and a catcher.

You mention how Snell improves Castillo's value, but so do these FA options for BOS when lookin at trading for a 32 year old pitcher owed $23M x 3.

 

could you not spend nearly the same money and get Fried, Burnes, or Flaherty?

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

could you not spend nearly the same money and get Fried, Burnes, or Flaherty?

The AAV for Fried is just about $3-5M more, but with 3 more years.

Burnes might be $29-30M a year, which is about $8-9M more than Castillo and for 7 yrs vs 3.

If we get SEA to pay $15M, it would lessen the AAV to about $16M, which would allow us to sign a top RP'er for $10-12M,

Maybe...

Castillo (+ cash) and Hoffman = Burnes

Castillo + Scott= Fried

[Duran Is The Man]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The AAV for Fried is just about $3-5M more, but with 3 more years.

Burnes might be $29-30M a year, which is about $8-9M more than Castillo and for 7 yrs vs 3.

If we get SEA to pay $15M, it would lessen the AAV to about $16M, which would allow us to sign a top RP'er for $10-12M,

Maybe...

Castillo (+ cash) and Hoffman = Burnes

Castillo + Scott= Fried

yeah...i'm just not that high on Castillo. i'd rather have Fried or Burnes and pay the extra.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

yeah...i'm just not that high on Castillo. i'd rather have Fried or Burnes and pay the extra.

Me, too.

If we get Soto and Scott, plus maybe Higgy or Jansen, I'm not sure we'd also outbid everyone for Burnes or Fried.

Maybe we do sign one, and use Abreu and others to beef up the pen via trades.

[notin]

2 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

could you not spend nearly the same money and get Fried, Burnes, or Flaherty?

Probably not Burnes.  I see him asking for outrageous money.

We’re talking about a player who lost an arbitration hearing after winning a Cy Young Award.  Know how you do that?  By asking for outrageous money…

[moonslav59]

A look at who brought us the foundation we have, right now:

Ben: Devers (also not traded by DD)

DD: Houck, Duran, Casas, Bello, Crawford, Rafaela, Perales, Jh Garcia,  Wikelman,  Murphy, Shugart, Castro

Bloom: Anthony, Mayer, Whitlock, Abreu, DHam, Yoshida, Wong, Wink, Guerrero,  Refsnyder, Dobbins, Kelly, Bernardino, E Valdez, Romero, Jo Garcia, E Rod, Sogard, Monegro, Paez, Mullins

Brez: Slaten, K Campbell, Teel, Montgomery, Giolito, Criswell, Arias, Cespedes,  Grissom, Priester, Fitts, Tolle, Sandlin, Cason,  Romy, Hendriks,  Weissert, Penrod, Valera, D Reyes, Ju Gonzales, Wilson, Fulmer,  Booser, I Campbell, Gasper

 

[mvp 78]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I understand why we value players differently.

I don't understand why STEAMER moves Abreu's defense from +6.3 to -3.1 for 2025. That makes no sense, to me. They also moved his offense from 8.5 to 3.9- a more than 50% drop off.

To be fair, they did this to Robles: -0.4 to -4.2 on D and +20.7 to + 5.1 on O (a 75% drop on O.)

I think we do match up for a major trade, especially with Castillo. (I agree that Yoshida is highly unlikely as part of a SEA-BOS trade, even as just a money balance.)

Of course, if SEA does not value Mayer, Meidroth, DHam or Grissom , then a deal may not work. I doubt we trade Campbell, but if we offered him, I think that changes the likelihood.

Involving a third team makes projecting a trade nearly impossible.

A drop for Robles makes much more sense as he's been a very volatile player the past few seasons. Wilyer has been a plus hitter since he was called up (135 wRC+ in '23, 114 in '24, 117 overall). In 2023, they played him in CF too much which skewed his defense negatively. He's clearly a corner OFer. 

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

A look at who brought us the foundation we have, right now:

Ben: Devers (also not traded by DD)

DD: Houck, Duran, Casas, Bello, Crawford, Rafaela, Perales, Jh Garcia,  Wikelman,  Murphy, Shugart, Castro

Bloom: Anthony, Mayer, Whitlock, Abreu, DHam, Yoshida, Wong, Wink, Guerrero,  Refsnyder, Dobbins, Kelly, Bernardino, E Valdez, Romero, Jo Garcia, E Rod, Sogard, Monegro, Paez, Mullins

Brez: Slaten, K Campbell, Teel, Montgomery, Giolito, Criswell, Arias, Cespedes,  Grissom, Priester, Fitts, Tolle, Sandlin, Cason,  Romy, Hendriks,  Weissert, Penrod, Valera, D Reyes, Ju Gonzales, Wilson, Fulmer,  Booser, I Campbell, Gasper

 

Murphy is the foundation? Didn't you want to DFA him the other day? 

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Murphy is the foundation? Didn't you want to DFA him the other day? 

I just listed all 40 man roster players and top prospects.

"Foundation" can have many connotations.

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I just listed all 40 man roster players and top prospects.

"Foundation" can have many connotations.

I've never heard the 40 man called the foundation before. Sometimes you come up with definitions that I'm not aware of. Maybe others are? 

Chat, is that true? 

[notin]

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

As much as I have tried to construct a trade involving Yoshida and Castillo, I seriously doubt SEA takes Yoshida. A more likely trade would be something going to SEA for Castillo + $15-20M. That would make Castillo more attractive to BOS than signing a FA SP'er.

If the Sox viewed Garver as a capable back-up catcher for Wong, until Teel is ML ready, maybe we could include Yoshida as a money balancer, and not as filling some major need by SEA.

Mayer + Yoshida for Castillo + Garver would not be accepted by BTV, and maybe not by Brez & JH, either, but I think I'd do it.

I'm not sure how much SEA values Mayer, or if they view him as ML ready could be the deciding factor.

Would Mayer for Castillo + $10M a year be acceptable to both sides?

I plugged it into BTV and it said “Are you f’n serious?”

In order for that trade to work on, Fangraphs would have to change the value of 1 fWAR from $8mill to about $20mill, but only for Castillo and not Mayer.  Castillo at the current fWAR value has a surplus of -$6.1mill, and it appears to be a decent value.  Mayer has a surplus of $53.5mill.  If Mayer is going to Seattle, it would make more sense to deal him for Woo or Bryce Miller than for Castillo.

A deal of David Hamilton for Castillo plus $15mill makes more sense on their model.  But I am not so sure Seattle is interested. 
 

Why even bother with Castillo? If the Sox actually get involved with one free agent SP, they have a rotation for now.  Is the goal to use Castillo (1.8 bWAR) to bump Crawford (2.0 bWAR) out of the rotation?  Is Castillo an upgrade for any of the 4 current starters?

[harmony]

Jack McMullen at Just Baseball Fans plays GM for the Red Sox, proposing a trade of Triston Casas, Braden Montgomery and Chase Meidroth for Garrett Crochet:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gfsu5KnFP98

... among other proposals.

At 45:30.

 

[Duran Is The Man]

10 minutes ago, harmony said:

Jack McMullen at Just Baseball plays GM for the Red Sox, proposing a trade of Triston Casas, Braden Montgomery and Chase Meidroth for Garrett Crochet:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gfsu5KnFP98

... among other proposals.

At 45:30.

 

he must be high.

[harmony]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

I plugged it into BTV and it said “Are you f’n serious?”

In order for that trade to work on, Fangraphs would have to change the value of 1 fWAR from $8mill to about $20mill, but only for Castillo and not Mayer.  Castillo at the current fWAR value has a surplus of -$6.1mill, and it appears to be a decent value.  Mayer has a surplus of $53.5mill.  If Mayer is going to Seattle, it would make more sense to deal him for Woo or Bryce Miller than for Castillo.

A deal of David Hamilton for Castillo plus $15mill makes more sense on their model.  But I am not so sure Seattle is interested. 
 

Why even bother with Castillo? If the Sox actually get involved with one free agent SP, they have a rotation for now.  Is the goal to use Castillo (1.8 bWAR) to bump Crawford (2.0 bWAR) out of the rotation?  Is Castillo an upgrade for any of the 4 current starters?

FWIW Steamer projects Kutter Crawford with a 2025 WAR of 2.3 in 32 starts after the right-hander posted 1.9 fWAR in 33 starts this year.

Steamer projects Luis Castllo with a 2025 WAR of 2.8 in 31 starts after the veteran posted a 2.3 fWAR in 30 starts this year.

Crawford is unlikely to be bumped from the Red Sox rotation ... and the Mariners are unlikely to "even bother" with the Red Sox.

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

I plugged it into BTV and it said “Are you f’n serious?”

In order for that trade to work on, Fangraphs would have to change the value of 1 fWAR from $8mill to about $20mill, but only for Castillo and not Mayer.  Castillo at the current fWAR value has a surplus of -$6.1mill, and it appears to be a decent value.  Mayer has a surplus of $53.5mill.  If Mayer is going to Seattle, it would make more sense to deal him for Woo or Bryce Miller than for Castillo.

A deal of David Hamilton for Castillo plus $15mill makes more sense on their model.  But I am not so sure Seattle is interested. 
 

Why even bother with Castillo? If the Sox actually get involved with one free agent SP, they have a rotation for now.  Is the goal to use Castillo (1.8 bWAR) to bump Crawford (2.0 bWAR) out of the rotation?  Is Castillo an upgrade for any of the 4 current starters?

tOPS+ away from SEA: 116 for Castillo last year

Why trade for a declining Castillo? They need guys at the top of the rotation, not the middle or bottom.

[drewski6]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

I plugged it into BTV and it said “Are you f’n serious?”

In order for that trade to work on, Fangraphs would have to change the value of 1 fWAR from $8mill to about $20mill, but only for Castillo and not Mayer.  Castillo at the current fWAR value has a surplus of -$6.1mill, and it appears to be a decent value.  Mayer has a surplus of $53.5mill.  If Mayer is going to Seattle, it would make more sense to deal him for Woo or Bryce Miller than for Castillo.

A deal of David Hamilton for Castillo plus $15mill makes more sense on their model.  But I am not so sure Seattle is interested. 
 

Why even bother with Castillo? If the Sox actually get involved with one free agent SP, they have a rotation for now.  Is the goal to use Castillo (1.8 bWAR) to bump Crawford (2.0 bWAR) out of the rotation?  Is Castillo an upgrade for any of the 4 current starters?

Why even bother with Castillo (drewski adds: right now)? I dont think it makes sense for Sea nor Boston to engage in these trades right now.  While Harmony does seem to underrate the trade values of Bos players/prospects, I do think he is correct that Castillo's value is likely to rise once the remaining top 2 FA pitchers come off the board.

Y'all know how this works.  The Orioles, Yankees, Giants, Blue Jays, Mets, and Im sure a couple dark horse teams are in on the remaining 2 starters.  Those that miss out will look to the next tier down, but also the trade market. At this point, when "signing an equiv starter for just cash" is no longer an option, the trade values of Crochet and Castillo will rise (maybe not as much for Castillo if you lump him in with Eovaldi and not Fried/Burnes), but yes it should still go up somewhat.

Its not crazy to suggest that due to supply/demand, teams will have to "overpay" per BTV for a trade for a starter.

If the Orioles get Burnes and the Yankees get Fried and the mets trade for crochet, you better believe the sox will be looking to make an overpay on the trade front.  I dont know about Mayer for Castillo level overpay, but certainly some kind of overpay.

SO it makes sense for teams looking to deal a starter to wait (for me).  Regarding the Sox, also wait.  Lets see if we get Soto.  If not, they will make a strong push for Fried and/or Burnes and may land one. So lets see where the dust settles with the free agents before engaging Seattle in a trade.

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, notin said:

I plugged it into BTV and it said “Are you f’n serious?”

In order for that trade to work on, Fangraphs would have to change the value of 1 fWAR from $8mill to about $20mill, but only for Castillo and not Mayer.  Castillo at the current fWAR value has a surplus of -$6.1mill, and it appears to be a decent value.  Mayer has a surplus of $53.5mill.  If Mayer is going to Seattle, it would make more sense to deal him for Woo or Bryce Miller than for Castillo.

A deal of David Hamilton for Castillo plus $15mill makes more sense on their model.  But I am not so sure Seattle is interested. 
 

Why even bother with Castillo? If the Sox actually get involved with one free agent SP, they have a rotation for now.  Is the goal to use Castillo (1.8 bWAR) to bump Crawford (2.0 bWAR) out of the rotation?  Is Castillo an upgrade for any of the 4 current starters?

Castillo contract - Yoshida contract make him very affordable.

Including msayer is an obvious overpay, agreed.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, harmony said:

FWIW Steamer projects Kutter Crawford with a 2025 WAR of 2.3 in 32 starts after the right-hander posted 1.9 fWAR in 33 starts this year.

Steamer projects Luis Castllo with a 2025 WAR of 2.8 in 31 starts after the veteran posted a 2.3 fWAR in 30 starts this year.

Crawford is unlikely to be bumped from the Red Sox rotation ... and the Mariners are unlikely to "even bother" with the Red Sox.

Steamer seems to be weighing performance prior to 2023 a little to heavily for Castillo. For example, his HR/9 has been 1.28 the past two years, but it projected it to decrease. Also projected his FIP to be lower than 2023 or 2024. As with all things, Steamer is a fun little toy just like BTV. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Regarding the Sox, also wait.  Lets see if we get Soto.  If not, they will make a strong push for Fried and/or Burnes and may land one. So lets see where the dust settles with the free agents before engaging Seattle in a trade.

Why sign Soto if you're only going to give him a mediocre starting rotation? Wouldn't you want Soto AND at least one of Fried/Burnes.