A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, even Bell mentioned $2M.

I think, if he's healthy, we can find someone to take him at about a $4-7M a year cost to them. (Whatever they pay, we save.

What do the Sox get from trading Yoshida plus $50mill?

[Hugh2]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

What do the Sox get from trading Yoshida plus $50mill?

A c level lower prospect 

[notin]

16 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

A c level lower prospect 

Is that even worth it?  There’s a better chance (by a lot) that Yoshida outperforms that return.

The Sox get a 40-man roster spot in that deal, and that’s it.  Not even a 26 man roster spot because Yoshida does have all of his options left and can be sent to Worcester…

[Hugh2]

31 minutes ago, notin said:

Is that even worth it?  There’s a better chance (by a lot) that Yoshida outperforms that return.

The Sox get a 40-man roster spot in that deal, and that’s it.  Not even a 26 man roster spot because Yoshida does have all of his options left and can be sent to Worcester…

This is why I've been saying over and over again Yoshida is not getting traded. 

Yoshida isn't bad, he's a good hitter, he's just not an excellent hitter and has no defense home.  Sox are stuck with him, if he's healthy, and puts up a 2.0 War next year, the prospect of trading for 2 years of him might be a little more enticing to a team out there. 

Honestly, he's a bench bat, he makes good contact, doesn't strike out a ton and seems to be able to hit for average when healthy.  He's just overpaid, at this point I think he just stays here.  Hopefully he offers good value off the bench and if he can stay healthy he's not a bad platoon DH.  Yeah I know, not exactly the sexiest phrase "platoon DH"

[Hugh2]

Think of it this way, if Yoshida was making the league minimum how much would you be willing to give up for him? you can easily replace what he is.  That's his max value if the Sox eat all the money, not worth it in my opinion. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

What do the Sox get from trading Yoshida plus $50mill?

Next to nothing, except "maybe"  $4M in savings to spend on someone or add to a contract to make us the top bidder.

IMO, we can trade Yoshida plus $45M ($3M x 3 years saved) for nothing, right now.

If he comes back and hits well, maybe we can get $5-6M a year. I'd wait to trade him. I doubt $3M x 3 years makes much difference, unless we get that close to the tax line. (Doubtful, IMO)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

IMO, we can trade Yoshida plus $45M ($3M x 3 years saved) for nothing, right now.

I knew it, from the moment they first started pumping those plastic dumbbells in his honor!

I thought to myself, Even I can lift air...

[Hugh2]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Next to nothing, except "maybe"  $4M in savings to spend on someone or add to a contract to make us the top bidder.

IMO, we can trade Yoshida plus $45M ($3M x 3 years saved) for nothing, right now.

If he comes back and hits well, maybe we can get $5-6M a year. I'd wait to trade him. I doubt $3M x 3 years makes much difference, unless we get that close to the tax line. (Doubtful, IMO)

I do think the Sox can do better than that, but like.......$6 Million.  I think that's the most salary relief they get without getting anything of real value in return.  I think if we ate the whole contract we'd get a prospect who might slide into the 20-30 range, maybe a hair better.  Just my guess. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I do think the Sox can do better than that, but like.......$6 Million.  I think that's the most salary relief they get without getting anything of real value in return.  I think if we ate the whole contract we'd get a prospect who might slide into the 20-30 range, maybe a hair better.  Just my guess. 

$6M a year or $18M total saved, in a trade, right now?

I doubt it, but maybe possible.

Would he get an $18M/3 FA offer, this winter?

[mvp 78]

3 hours ago, notin said:

What do the Sox get from trading Yoshida plus $50mill?

A standing ovation on Opening Day.

[Hugh2]

35 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

$6M a year or $18M total saved, in a trade, right now?

I doubt it, but maybe possible.

Would he get an $18M/3 FA offer, this winter?

As in we'd still be paying him $12 million a year to play elsewhere

[moonslav59]

54 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

As in we'd still be paying him $12 million a year to play elsewhere

Yes. I get that.

To me, I'd prefer an Abreu-Ref DH platoon, so saving $3-6M a year and spending it on a better pitcher is worth it.

Again, I might wait until he's healthy and hope his stock goes up. (Assuming he does well.)

[Randy Red Sox]

On 11/10/2024 at 4:17 PM, moonslav59 said:

Well, even Bell mentioned $2M.

I think, if he's healthy, we can find someone to take him at about a $4-7M a year cost to them. (Whatever they pay, we save.

and that will make the old miser veery happy indeed lol

[Larry Cook]

It sounds like the entire AL east is in a dog fight for fried. 
 

meanwhile crickets on burnes and snell thus far. 

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

and that will make the old miser veery happy indeed lol

I used to think that some savings here or there was a good thing, so they could spend it elsewhere on a more needed area. Now, that old miser just pockets all savings, what's the benefit to the roster?

Yoshida might have a good year. We can trade Abreu for a pitcher and hardly miss a beat on O.

I'm not holding my breath on any major changes from JH, but just spending the same as last year could work out okay. I'm wanting better than okay, of course, and maybe we are due for our GM to actually get a few things right, even out of luck.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

It sounds like the entire AL east is in a dog fight for fried. 
 

meanwhile crickets on burnes and snell thus far. 

I don't want Snell, at all. I hope I never hear our name and his linked in any way.

Fried then Burnes, is how I see it.

Sign Scott and one from Estevez, Hoffman and Holmes, or two from the next tier of 3-4 RP'ers.

[Larry Cook]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't want Snell, at all. I hope I never hear our name and his linked in any way.

Fried then Burnes, is how I see it.

Sign Scott and one from Estevez, Hoffman and Holmes, or two from the next tier of 3-4 RP'ers.

No love for snell???? Can I ask why????

[Bellhorn04]

8 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

No love for snell???? Can I ask why????

moon is just tired of injury-prone pitchers.  It's got nothing to do with Snell's talent.  Rather have Burnes or Fried who have proven to be more durable.

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

No love for snell???? Can I ask why????

Only over 130 IP, twice his whole career of 9 years.

Only over 129, once since 2018. He's had 2-3, not great but still okay seasons , out of his last 8 seasons.

9 seasons: 6 with very good to excellent numbers when pitching: 2 seasons over 130 IP (180 and 180.2) and 3 seasons between 128 and 129.1 IP. That's 4 seasons under 107 IP, including 50 in 2020.

He's a damn good pitcher, but I'm tired of injury risk pitchers.. He turns 32 this December.

[mvp 78]

58 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

moon is just tired of injury-prone pitchers.  It's got nothing to do with Snell's talent.  Rather have Burnes or Fried who have proven to be more durable.

If that was the case, he'd be out on red flag Fried. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

If that was the case, he'd be out on red flag Fried. 

I probably shouldn't have spoken for him on Fried.

[Hugh2]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes. I get that.

To me, I'd prefer an Abreu-Ref DH platoon, so saving $3-6M a year and spending it on a better pitcher is worth it.

Again, I might wait until he's healthy and hope his stock goes up. (Assuming he does well.)

I'd prefer to not have a platoon at DH in general. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I'd prefer to not have a platoon at DH in general. 

Me, too, but with Anthony joining the OF, we need to find a spot for Ref vs LHPs and Abreu vs RHPs. They could play LF with Duran in CF and Rafaela on the bench or AAA, but the DH slot may be open, until Yoshida is healthy, again.

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Me, too, but with Anthony joining the OF, we need to find a spot for Ref vs LHPs and Abreu vs RHPs. They could play LF with Duran in CF and Rafaela on the bench or AAA, but the DH slot may be open, until Yoshida is healthy, again.

A. I'm not 100% certain Anthony starts the year in Boston but he could. 

B.) If we are struggling to find at bats for REF and Abreu because Anthony and Duran are smashing the baseball then who cares if they're getting less at bats. 

I have mentioned before that Rafaela could be a super utiliy type, and REF/ABREU could be a full time platoon. 

I'd like Rafaela to get reps in RF/SS/2B as well.  

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

A. I'm not 100% certain Anthony starts the year in Boston but he could. 

B.) If we are struggling to find at bats for REF and Abreu because Anthony and Duran are smashing the baseball then who cares if they're getting less at bats. 

I have mentioned before that Rafaela could be a super utiliy type, and REF/ABREU could be a full time platoon. 

I'd like Rafaela to get reps in RF/SS/2B as well.  

Ref is a top 15 batter vs LHPs in all of MLB. He HAS TO PLAY vs all LH'd Starters. Our weakness vs LHPs only amplifies that need. Abreu's struggles vs LHPs makes it an easy platoon, whether in the OF or at DH.

Also, Duran is no "smasher" vs LHPs. Anthony did well vs LHPs in the minors, but he could struggle vs them in the bigs. Rafaela struggled vs LHPs and RHPs, about the same.

Duran v LHPs: Career .632 and .665 in 2024.

Abreu: .514/.532

Ref HAS TO START vs all LHPs, no matter what. Only 11 batters in all of MLB has more PAs vs LHPs and higher OPS than Ref at .910. Only 8 have a higher wRC+ (153) and more PAs vs LHPs.

 

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Me, too, but with Anthony joining the OF, we need to find a spot for Ref vs LHPs and Abreu vs RHPs. They could play LF with Duran in CF and Rafaela on the bench or AAA, but the DH slot may be open, until Yoshida is healthy, again.

Rafaela is fine as a super UTIL guy if he doesn't outright earn a starting spot in CF. 

[moonslav59]

We could see an Abreu-Ref platoon in LF or DH, at least until Yoshida is healthy.

We could also see:

LF: Duran vs RHPs/ Ref vs LHPs

CF: Anthony vs RHPs/ Duran vs LHPs

RF: Abreu vs RHP/Anthony vs LHPs

or

LF: Duran/Ref

CF: Rafaela/Duran

RF: Anthony

DH: Abreu/Yoshida

or

LF: Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: Anthony

DH: Abreu/Ref

Abreu would be the 4th OF'er, as some shift around when others get a day off.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Rafaela is fine as a super UTIL guy if he doesn't outright earn a starting spot in CF. 

Agreed. Expensive for such a role, but fine. He could end up with 400+ PAs as such. He could get many late innings as a defensive replacement, but Duran, Anthony and Abreu are pretty good on D.

Rafaela's D at SS is not suited for use as a defensive replacement, but more as an emergency role.

[Bellhorn04]

Abreu is getting traded.  That's as close as I'll come to a "bold prediction". 🙂

[moonslav59]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

Abreu is getting traded.  That's as close as I'll come to a "bold prediction". 🙂

I think so, too. Anthony needs to play FT, if he is added to the 26 & 40.

If we decide to use Rafaela in a utility role, then we c ould find room for Duran, Anthony and Abreu in the OF. (Rafaela could play CF v LHPs as Abreu sits and be utility vs RHPs.)