A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

13 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I thought the story was that when transfers of that size are made, the rules are that the bank is obligated to verify that they're legit transactions (money laundering concerns etc.).  These transfers were made to an illegal betting operation.

My guess would be that the gambling operation had a front set up so as not to appear as an illegal gambling operation. It's not like they hang a sign outside the door saying "Illegal Gambling Available Here"

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

My guess would be that the gambling operation had a front set up so as not to appear as an illegal gambling operation. It's not like they hang a sign outside the door saying "Illegal Gambling Available Here"

I realize that.  But this was an extended series of large transactions.  What was the front?  How much checking does the bank do?  I don't really know how exactly how the rules work, but there were a lot of comments about how strict they are.

All I'm really saying is that part wasn't talked about much.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

I realize that.  But this was an extended series of large transactions.  What was the front?  How much checking does the bank do?  I don't really know how exactly how the rules work, but there were a lot of comments about how strict they are.

All I'm really saying is that part wasn't talked about much.

My company moves around large sums of money all the time. There's never any investigations. Sometimes the bank may make an inquiry, but if ohtani's fall guy answered the inquiry, then the transactions will go through.

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

My company moves around large sums of money all the time. There's never any investigations. Sometimes the bank may make an inquiry, but if ohtani's fall guy answered the inquiry, then the transactions will go through.

So the banks don't actually do s**t in the way of verification then.  That certainly makes the most sense.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So the banks don't actually do s**t in the way of verification then.  That certainly makes the most sense.

Again, his fall guy approved it, the banks typically don't look any further unless a serious red flag pops up.

There's just too many transactions happening on a daily basis for them to do a deep dive into each of them. They may have made an inquiry on the 1st transaction, but after getting a satisfactory answer from the fall guy they just consider it normal business. And while the money may seem huge to you or I, in the big picture of banking transactions they barely register a blip.

[Bellhorn04]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesfarrell/2024/04/11/shohei-ohtanis-interpreter-charged-with-stealing-16-million-from-mlb-superstar-for-gambling-debts/

Mizuhara...allegedly posed as Ohtani in phone calls to the bank, convincing the bank to approve wire transfers to the bookkeepers.

This would have been a few dozen transfers of $500 K each.  You can't make this stuff up.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Again, his fall guy approved it, the banks typically don't look any further unless a serious red flag pops up.

There's just too many transactions happening on a daily basis for them to do a deep dive into each of them. They may have made an inquiry on the 1st transaction, but after getting a satisfactory answer from the fall guy they just consider it normal business. And while the money may seem huge to you or I, in the big picture of banking transactions they barely register a blip.

Yeah, I have to think you're right.

All the bluster that came out at the time about how the banks have these tight rules in place was just kind of a joke.

 

[Hugh2]

58 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Yankees and Dodgers are kicking our asses these days.

The only thing that is keeping a lot of Sox fans from being miserable about it is the Four Rings and now the Fab Four. 

I get your position too, moon.  I just like stirring up some controversy! 

And a lot of that goes out the window after this world series.  If the Yankees win, we can't say they haven't won crap lately and all we will hear about is 28!!!! when LA wins, that's two from them since we gave them Betts or won one ourselves. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Yankees and Dodgers are kicking our asses these days.

The only thing that is keeping a lot of Sox fans from being miserable about it is the Four Rings and now the Fab Four. 

I get your position too, moon.  I just like stirring up some controversy! 

I have no issues with you or your interactions with me. You are one of my favorite posters.

I hate the idea of thinking back to 4 rings to help ease my pain from recent season results, but I do remember a time, when I did not have that little piece of comfort. That time was over 3 decades, for me, and more for other Sox fans.

More than this, though, is my belief that we have finally righted the farm, despite some lingering worries about finding and developing fine young pitchers. To me, this is the strongest farm we have had since the mid Theo era. Couple that with my belief that we currently have the best set of pre-prime to prime, core players than we've had since Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Beni and ERod. That was 5 years ago, plus.

Much has been said about the farm's failure to produce good pitchers, but when you look at past winning Sox teams, they were mostly dominated by acquired pitchers. We had one peak time with Lester, Buch and Masterson, but since then, we've been pretty awful. Once can argue, many of our current homegrown pitchers are barely better than mediocre, are inconsistent or have some major flaws, like a high BB or HR rate, but I see a significant improvement over years past.

Don't get me wrong, we still need major additions, and I am nowhere near confident that JH will allow Brez to fill the 3-5 gaps we have with quality and high quality players, but I'm also not sure he is done spending, like a few posters seem to think. The fact is, we don't know what he will do, or if e will ever spend like he did with DD. (He may not ever have to, if this farm comes through.)

I have given the pessimistic view, several times, already, and I seem to give the optimistic view more often, and certainly more than some, but I like our core of pre-prime and prime players.

Pitching needs help, but this is a pretty decent, and mostly low cost foundation:
Gio is 30. Weissert & Kelly are 29. Houck, Crawford & Whitlock are 28, Criswell & Penrod 27 and Slaten, Wink and Campbell 26. Bello is just 25, and Fitts, Priester & Guerrero are 24 or younger. Only Hendriks (35>36) and Fulmer (31>32) are post prime. Although Whitlock spent no time on our farm, he and almost all the other under 31 pitchers listed here, did.

The age of our key everyday players and the ML ready or near ML ready prospects is something I find very hard to not be optimistic about. Sure, there are questions, and health concerns with some of our key players, but it seems like we now have the depth covered, and some of the depth has more upside than the starters.

Only Ref is over 32, and he will most likely only be a short-side, platoon DH and 5th or 6th OF'er. IMO, that is rather stunning and grounds for optimism, all by itself. Story is 31, and has health issues, but we now have Mayer.

Rafaela & Grissom are 23, while Casas is just 24. DHam, Abreu & Valdez are 25 or 26, while Devers and Duran are 27 and just entering peak prime. Wong is 28. This is 7 or 8 key players (9 if you count Ref), and then we have quite a list of very promising depth to fill the other slots or provide injury insurance for 2025.

This is an awesome looking list of ML ready or near ML ready prospects, of which we may only need 1-2 do do very well:

Anthony, Campbell, Mayer, Meidroth, Fitts, Priester, Guerrero, Penrod, Shugart & Dobbins

Teel, Sandlin, Romero, Jh Garcia, Castro, Early among others

I'm pretty sure Brez will add 3-5 players to the 26 or 40, but a lot depends on how high quality they are, and if they can stay healthy and not disappoint, like so many of our most recent pick-ups have done.

I'm cautiously optimistic- not about JH deciding to spend "what it takes," but because we have such a large group of pre prime and prime players to choose the best 26. If the 3-5 additions come through, the group I just highlighted only needs to fill 21-23 slots, plus any injury slots that open up. I don't think that should be an issue.

 

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So the banks don't actually do s**t in the way of verification then.  That certainly makes the most sense.

Or ..  what also makes sense is Ohtani verified the transactions himself because he made them and his translator had no access to anything besides the gobs of cash he was handed to go place the bets.

I mean, how many people give their translators free rein over their bank accounts?

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Or ..  what also makes sense is Ohtani verified the transactions himself because he made them and his translator had no access to anything besides the gobs of cash he was handed to go place the bets.

I mean, how many people give their translators free rein over their bank accounts?

Also, banks notify the IRS on large transactions, not the customer or MLB.

[notin]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Also, banks notify the IRS on large transactions, not the customer or MLB.

Banks notify customers, too.  I get texts from my bank on transactions they question.  Why they think someone stole my information to pay my gas bill does confuse me, but I still like the security…

[Bellhorn04]

35 minutes ago, notin said:

Or ..  what also makes sense is Ohtani verified the transactions himself because he made them and his translator had no access to anything besides the gobs of cash he was handed to go place the bets.

I mean, how many people give their translators free rein over their bank accounts?

None of it makes much sense.  We'd have to assume Ohtani is certifiably insane to make several dozen bank transfers of $500 K to an illegal betting operation when he knows the bank is looking at each transaction, possibly recording phone calls with him etc.  

It's kind of baffling how it happened whatever you believe.

 

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, notin said:

Banks notify customers, too.  I get texts from my bank on transactions they question.  Why they think someone stole my information to pay my gas bill does confuse me, but I still like the security…

I think you have to opt into those notifications. I don't get them, but my wife opted in and gets them.

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

None of it makes much sense.  We'd have to assume Ohtani is certifiably insane to make several dozen bank transfers of $500 K to an illegal betting operation when he knows the bank is looking at each transaction, possibly recording phone calls with him etc.  

It's kind of baffling how it happened whatever you believe.

 

I'm assuming the worst for him.

[notin]

43 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

None of it makes much sense.  We'd have to assume Ohtani is certifiably insane to make several dozen bank transfers of $500 K to an illegal betting operation when he knows the bank is looking at each transaction, possibly recording phone calls with him etc.  

It's kind of baffling how it happened whatever you believe.

 

Why are we assuming what he knows?  Or whether or not he thinks he is above the law here?  Or knows the law at all?  
 

He should be familiar with MLB rules regarding gambling; every clubhouse in MLB has signs warning players of the consequences.  But others have ignored those signs before him.   Just last year, Pirates shortstop Tupucita Marcano was banned from MLB for gambling…

[Bellhorn04]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

Why are we assuming what he knows?  Or whether or not he thinks he is above the law here?

I'm not really assuming anything.  I'm just saying none of it makes much sense.

Like, after the first few transfers, if the bank believes it's Ohtani, wouldn't they suggest he come in for a face to face chat just to make sure everything's on the up and up?

And as far as a coverup goes, I can understand MLB wanting one, but what about the FBI?  Do we think they covered it up because they're big baseball fans?  Or do we think they got paid off by Ohtani too?  

  

[Bellhorn04]

Here's a wild scenario:

-Dodgers win World Series as Ohtani rakes.

-Some time after World Series, we find that Ohtani was guilty after all as new evidence comes forward.

-Yankees get cheated again! 

[notin]

30 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm not really assuming anything.  I'm just saying none of it makes much sense.

Like, after the first few transfers, if the bank believes it's Ohtani, wouldn't they suggest he come in for a face to face chat just to make sure everything's on the up and up?

And as far as a coverup goes, I can understand MLB wanting one, but what about the FBI?  Do we think they covered it up because they're big baseball fans?  Or do we think they got paid off by Ohtani too?  

  

 The translator did plead guilty.  Perhaps the FBI considered the case closed at that point…

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

35 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm not really assuming anything.  I'm just saying none of it makes much sense.

Like, after the first few transfers, if the bank believes it's Ohtani, wouldn't they suggest he come in for a face to face chat just to make sure everything's on the up and up?

And as far as a coverup goes, I can understand MLB wanting one, but what about the FBI?  Do we think they covered it up because they're big baseball fans?  Or do we think they got paid off by Ohtani too?  

  

Well, it's not like the FBI has been the most honest bunch, so.......

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Well, it's not like the FBI has been the most honest bunch, so.......

Let's try not to go down any rabbit holes on this site everyone. Do it on your free time. Thanks. 

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Here's a wild scenario:

-Dodgers win World Series as Ohtani rakes.

-Some time after World Series, we find that Ohtani was guilty after all as new evidence comes forward.

-Yankees get cheated again! 

i BET that if Ohtani actually came out and admitted that he bet on baseball, he wouldn't get the treatment Rose got. no way.

and btw, i don't doubt a bit that he really did and it's all being covered up.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i BET that if Ohtani actually came out and admitted that he bet on baseball, he wouldn't get the treatment Rose got. no way.

and btw, i don't doubt a bit that he really did and it's all being covered up.

Would it matter if Ohtani did it before he was under contract with a MLB team?

[mvp 78]

If the world's oldest looking 51 year old who spent his whole life smoking packs and packs a day didn't "die suddenly" right after suspending Rose, I bet it all would have blown over at some point and Rose would have made amends. They made Giamatti into a saint and Rose was never let back into the club. The "they" includes Joe Castiglione who would end every season with a dumb poem that Giamatti once recited. 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Would it matter if Ohtani did it before he was under contract with a MLB team?

Well, that's not what happened or do you mean in between contracts? 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

They made Giamatti into a saint and Rose was never let back into the club. The "they" includes Joe Castiglione who would end every season with a dumb poem that Giamatti once recited. 

It breaks your ears. It is designed to break your ears.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It breaks your ears. It is designed to break your ears.

It's designed to give me the ick and want to turn the radio off? 

[Bellhorn04]

18 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i BET that if Ohtani actually came out and admitted that he bet on baseball, he wouldn't get the treatment Rose got. no way.

and btw, i don't doubt a bit that he really did and it's all being covered up.

I'm as cynical as they come.  And I just think it's really hard to keep something as big as this covered up.

Keep an eye out for people in Ohtani's orbit dying in mysterious ways, I guess...

  

[Hugh2]

It feels like Ohtani initally walked down the path of covering for his friend not realizing it implicated him in something serious and had to retreat.  I don't think he did anything sinister, but this is pure conjecture. 

Of course, his affinity towards caring about the people around him may have led to actions that will only fuel the conspiracy theories. 

 

[Bellhorn04]

16 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

It feels like Ohtani initally walked down the path of covering for his friend not realizing it implicated him in something serious and had to retreat.  I don't think he did anything sinister, but this is pure conjecture. 

Of course, his affinity towards caring about the people around him may have led to actions that will only fuel the conspiracy theories. 

 

That scenario, that Ohtani was helping his friend until he found out the consequences, probably makes the most sense.  Needless to say that doesn't reflect well on Ohtani either.  Didn't seem to hurt his game much, that's for sure.