A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

Another "wait till next year" offseason for Sox fans. For many fans, there is not enough hope for having those sentiments, and for good reason.

Here is a breakdown of what I see might be the 26 and 40 man roster, including Rule 5 protectees and the projected CB Tax budget. I will not project who we might sign or trade for, right now. This is just the template we have to work with.

8 Players out of team control: Jansen, Pivetta, O'Neill, Martin, Jansen,  Garcia, Sims & Paxton.

No Additions 26 Man Roster with AAV (14 players with no money listed= minimum/pre-arb):

SP: Houck ~$6 arb 1, Bello $9, Giolito $19, Crawford ~$3M arb 1, Fitts

RP: Hendriks $5, Slaten, Whitlock $5, Fulmer, Criswell, Wink, Guerrero, Penrod

C: Wong, Gasper (Hieneman?)

1B: Casas

2B: Grissom, DHam

SS: Story $23, Romy

3B: Devers $29

LF: Duran ~6M arb 1, Refsnyder $2

CF: Rafaela $6

RF: Abreu

DH: Yoshida $18

Projected 40 Man Roster players beginning the season in the minors. (I am not adding non Rule 5 players like Anthony, Campbell, Mayer, Teel and Meidroth. I think we add them after opening day, maybe when we place a player or more on the 60 Day IL to make roster space for them.)

Priester, Weissert, I Campbell, Bernardino, Kelly, E Valdez, Sogard,  Perales (to 60 Day IL- day one) Dobbins (Rule 5,) JH Garcia (Rule 5,) Monegro (Rule 5,)

3 Bubble players to choose: Wikelman, Booser, Horn, Shugart, Mata (out of options) Rule 5 Bubbles: Sikes, Gambrell, Castro, B Gonzalez, Hickey, Jordan, Liu

Once FAs or trade players are added, I expect the bubble players to be DFA'd

Budget: 11 players under contract w options accepted is $130M. Add 14 players making MLB minimum and it's about $11M more plus another $8M for 14 minor leaguers on the 40. Add about $19M for player benefits and the bonus pool, and our CB Tax number starts at about $168M. The CB Tax Line #1 is $241M. That puts us about $72 M under. I'm sure the winter spending budget will be a hot topic, so I'll leave that for later.

To me, our greatest need areas are:

# 1 or 2 SP

Closer or solid #2 RP

LH'd RP

RHB (maybe swap Abreu and or DHam for a RHB)

Back-up Catcher to bridget to Teel

 

 

[mvp 78]

Realistic View: 

I have no idea what the roster will look like next season. They just might run back virtually the same team as this year, but with Giolito. 

[moonslav59]

Nobody knows.

a big question is the budget and willingness to make a bold trade

[Randy Red Sox]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Realistic View: 

I have no idea what the roster will look like next season. They just might run back virtually the same team as this year, but with Giolito. 

is he even going to be ready for opening day?

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

is he even going to be ready for opening day?

Maybe not, but I counted everyone as being healthy, and nobody can go on the 60 Day Il until opening day. 
 

I doubt Gio starts on tge 60 but Perales probably will

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

is he even going to be ready for opening day?

He got the internal brace procedure and the recovery is 10-12 months unlike full TJS.

[Bellhorn04]

43 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He got the internal brace procedure and the recovery is 10-12 months unlike full TJS.

Shouldn't be long before IBP has earned a place as an acronym.  

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Shouldn't be long before IBP has earned a place as an acronym.  

How about mTJS for modified TJS? Fits well with fWAR, bWAR and others. 

[Nick]

Great starting point for discussion, Moon.  Brez has the same information that we have as of now. 

When will he meet JH?

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Nick said:

Great starting point for discussion, Moon.  Brez has the same information that we have as of now. 

When will he meet JH?

He might already have some me idea of the road ahead, but I’m sure some major specifics have yet to be made or passed on to Brez.

To me, the ability to make a bold trade is almost as important as the winter spending budget and how much can be longer term deals.

[moonslav59]

Lot's of posturing by 3 Sox  talking heads: Sam, Brez & Cora.

Nothing specific on the budget, of course- just this from Sam, "I don't know where the payroll is going to land. I know we're going to be focused on win totals and getting into that postseason. You can't mess around at 83, 84 or 85 wins. That's not where you want to be. You want to win the division. Get in.... Be in a position where you're sitting in a bye position and lining up who's going to be starting Game 1 of the next series. That's where we want to be."

Brez added, “We asked our fans to sacrifice a lot to be patient as we build the foundation that would enable us to meet those goals. I think we’re here. I think we’re ready to deliver.”

[notin]

f*** spending.  I hope the Sox don’t sign any free agents.  Free agents always ruin the whole off-season by taking forever to sign anywhere…

[moonslav59]

Just sign 'em quick- like the Yoshida contra...errrRRRrrrr...........

[Randy Red Sox]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe not, but I counted everyone as being healthy, and nobody can go on the 60 Day Il until opening day. 
 

I doubt Gio starts on tge 60 but Perales probably will

typo?

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

typo?

I was typing on my phone. Fat fingers. tge>the.

[Bellhorn04]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Lot's of posturing by 3 Sox  talking heads: Sam, Brez & Cora.

Nothing specific on the budget, of course- just this from Sam, "I don't know where the payroll is going to land. I know we're going to be focused on win totals and getting into that postseason. You can't mess around at 83, 84 or 85 wins. That's not where you want to be. You want to win the division. Get in.... Be in a position where you're sitting in a bye position and lining up who's going to be starting Game 1 of the next series. That's where we want to be."

Brez added, “We asked our fans to sacrifice a lot to be patient as we build the foundation that would enable us to meet those goals. I think we’re here. I think we’re ready to deliver.”

Brez saying the right thing at least.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Brez saying the right thing at least.

I hope he was echoing what the higher ups are saying to him, such as "Now is the time," since the "foundation is set."

We clearly need at least 2-3 significant pieces to be viewed as division champ competitors. If they truly meant what they are saying, the have to find those 2-3+ guys, and I'm not talking hopefuls or guys returning from major injury time off.

I'm still not buying it. We heard similar things, lats winter. When I see serious actions taking place, then I will believe. For now, I'm assuming the sham continues on.

[mvp 78]

If that's the case, the original post could/should just be:

My realistic view is 2025 tge Sham Continues. 

😎

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

If that's the case, the original post could/should just be:

My realistic view is 2025 tge Sham Continues. 

😎

It’s only a sham if  you buy into what the Red Sox spin, and grin machine spit out. Last year most bought into the Full Throttle comment, and were all excited about meeting with the Yam Man like the Red Sox were going to win a bidding war with all the big spenders. 🙈🤭

[mvp 78]

On 9/30/2024 at 10:37 AM, Randy Red Sox said:

is he even going to be ready for opening day?

 

[moonslav59]

Isn't that what they all say?

Remember when Liam Hendriks was set to return around Aug 1st, then the 15th, then Sept 1st, then a set back, and then 2025?

[notin]

On 9/30/2024 at 10:43 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

Shouldn't be long before IBP has earned a place as an acronym.  

Too close to IBS, so many might feel it’s related…

[notin]

My early take.

 

The team to talk to about. a SP isn’t Seattle; it’s Miami.

 Thoughts that the Sox will only spend on pitching are incorrect. 
 

Hopefully if they go the free agent route, they limit themselves to RP.  And Juan Soto.  A talent like Soto shouldn’t be dismissed so quickly just because he’s too pricey…

[moonslav59]

If TOR lets Vladdy walk, maybe they kick into rebuild mode and look to trade one or two from...

$18.7M x 4 Berrios

$22M x 2 Gausman

$21M x 1 Bassitt

Would you trade Casas and Yoshida for Berrios & Gausman? (I doubt JH agrees.)

[dgalehouse]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

If TOR lets Vladdy walk, maybe they kick into rebuild mode and look to trade one or two from...

$18.7M x 4 Berrios

$22M x 2 Gausman

$21M x 1 Bassitt

Would you trade Casas and Yoshida for Berrios & Gausman? (I doubt JH agrees.)

J.H. wouldn't know Berrios if he boarded his yacht. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

J.H. wouldn't know Berrios if he boarded his yacht. 

He's paid about the same as the guy he knows: Yoshida.

3 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

51 minutes ago, notin said:

My early take.

 

The team to talk to about. a SP isn’t Seattle; it’s Miami.

 Thoughts that the Sox will only spend on pitching are incorrect. 
 

Hopefully if they go the free agent route, they limit themselves to RP.  And Juan Soto.  A talent like Soto shouldn’t be dismissed so quickly just because he’s too pricey…

The problem with Soto is that the Yankees and Mets are both highly motivated and will be going toe to toe for him.

We're just kidding ourselves if we think Henry wants any part of that.

  

[moonslav59]

14 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The problem with Soto is that the Yankees and Mets are both highly motivated and will be going toe to toe for him.

We're just kidding ourselves if we think Henry wants any part of that.

  

Agreed, and even if we had a big OF need, it would not be Soto we sign.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If TOR lets Vladdy walk, maybe they kick into rebuild mode and look to trade one or two from...

$18.7M x 4 Berrios

$22M x 2 Gausman

$21M x 1 Bassitt

Would you trade Casas and Yoshida for Berrios & Gausman? (I doubt JH agrees.)

I'd make some sort of deal for Gausman, but have no interest in Berrios. 

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd make some sort of deal for Gausman, but have no interest in Berrios. 

Like maybe...

Yoshida ($54M/3), $10M cash and Abreu for Gausman ($44M/2)