Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[notin]

37 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So you don't really like what they've done outside of Crochet, I take it. 

Crochet absolutely.  Love that move and will like it more when he’s extended.  I did like Giolito signing, of course he’s normally not injured or coming off injury.  
 

The acquisitions were risky but their depth is not bad, with 10 SPs on the 40 man roster, not counting Sandoval…

[notin]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Casas falls in the woods, will any of us post about it? 

I’ll clap for him with one hand…

[mvp 78]

58 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If Robertson is seeking a ring on a 1 year deal, he won't sign with BOS. That leaves precious little else: Jansen? Finnegan? (I'd be okay with either, as we'd be better with one than without.)

I still want Grichuk, or maybe Laureano to shut us up about using Ref vs RAF in RF.

Adam Duvall had an 856 OPS against LHP last year. Just bring him back. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Adam Duvall had an 856 OPS against LHP last year. Just bring him back. 

Can't -- he wants a contract for 13 months.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Can't -- he wants a contract for 13 months.

Cotsworth heads rise up!

[notin]

6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Can't -- he wants a contract for 13 months.

In a row?

[harmony]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Casas falls in the woods, will any of us post about it? 

FWIW the ZiPS three-year projections have Triston Casas with 1.5 WAR in 2025, 1.5 WAR in 2026 and 1.7 WAR in 2027:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/triston-casas/22514/stats?position=1B#zips-3-year-projections

Other 2025 projections for Casas are slightly more optimistic:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/triston-casas/22514/stats?position=1B#dashboard

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I’ve been excited about none of them.  Yates is more of the same.  If you recall, I didn’t want Buehler either..

Fair enough. I do see Robertson and yates as about even.

I was not high on Buehler or Sandoval.

[notin]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Fair enough. I do see Robertson and yates as about even.

I was not high on Buehler or Sandoval.

Robertson has no real injury history and has been a solid 2 bWAR performer for the last 3 seasons.  I think he is the best arm left, but not the only good one…

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

Robertson has no real injury history and has been a solid 2 bWAR performer for the last 3 seasons.  I think he is the best arm left, but not the only good one…

Why only 19 IP from '19-'21?

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, harmony said:

FWIW the ZiPS three-year projections have Triston Casas with 1.5 WAR in 2025, 1.5 WAR in 2026 and 1.7 WAR in 2027:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/triston-casas/22514/stats?position=1B#zips-3-year-projections

Other 2025 projections for Casas are slightly more optimistic:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/triston-casas/22514/stats?position=1B#dashboard

Wow and if he is healthy this year, I bet his prime will be better than 1.7 fWAR and will force his next ZiPS numbers to go up. 

[mvp 78]

OOPSY (God tier prognostication system) has Casas at 3 fWAR this season. 

[notin]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Why only 19 IP from '19-'21?

You’re right.  He did have TJ in 2019.  It’s been a while but he had one.

I still preferred him over Yates…

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

You’re right.  He did have TJ in 2019.  It’s been a while but he had one.

I still preferred him over Yates…

I see them as pretty close, and have no strong preference.

[notin]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I see them as pretty close, and have no strong preference.

I’m not wild about Yates posting 3.3 of his career 9.1 bWAR in one season at age 38. That screams “not repeating!!” loud enough to be heard at both poles simultaneously…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m not wild about Yates posting 3.3 of his career 9.1 bWAR in one season at age 38. That screams “not repeating!!” loud enough to be heard at both poles simultaneously…

Pesky's and Fisk's!

[Bellhorn04]

31 minutes ago, notin said:

You’re right.  He did have TJ in 2019.  It’s been a while but he had one.

I still preferred him over Yates…

No worries, we'll all get nothing.  The Sox are equal opportunity disappointers.

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m not wild about Yates posting 3.3 of his career 9.1 bWAR in one season at age 38. That screams “not repeating!!” loud enough to be heard at both poles simultaneously…

Are you trying to tell me that relievers are volatile and can't be trusted year to year? 

[Bellhorn04]

29 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m not wild about Yates posting 3.3 of his career 9.1 bWAR in one season at age 38. That screams “not repeating!!” loud enough to be heard at both poles simultaneously…

I will admit to being somewhat influenced by Recency Effect.

Call me crazy, but I have to think a guy who had a good 2024 and was healthy at the end of the year is usually going to be a better bet than a guy who didn't play in 2024. 

The Dodgers seemed to think it was worth a shot.  Of course, $13 million is couch cushion stuff to them, even with 110% tax added on, right? 🙃   

[mvp 78]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

No worries, we'll all get nothing.  The Sox are equal opportunity disappointers.

Joe Kelly is still available. That'd be fun!

 

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I will admit to being somewhat influenced by Recency Effect.

Call me crazy, but I have to think a guy who had a good 2024 and was healthy at the end of the year is usually going to be a better bet than a guy who didn't play in 2024. 

The Dodgers seemed to think it was worth a shot.  Of course, $13 million is couch cushion stuff to them, even with 110% tax added on, right? 🙃   

It wasn't until I typed that last part that it occurred to me that Yates is actually going to cost the Dodgers about $27 million!!!

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Who are all these AAAA pitchers?

Bernardino

Weissert

Wilson

Winckowski

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Bernardino

Weissert

Wilson

Winckowski

Our 7th and 8th relievers aren't All Stars! 

[gojohn99]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Joe Kelly is still available. That'd be fun!

 

And Kenley Jansen

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, gojohn99 said:

And Kenley Jansen

The clubhouse would rather see FA Matt Barnes walk through that door. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

I’m not wild about Yates posting 3.3 of his career 9.1 bWAR in one season at age 38. That screams “not repeating!!” loud enough to be heard at both poles simultaneously…

I'm not wild about a 40 year old with the same 2 year bWAR as Yates being much better.

[moonslav59]

2023-2024 bWAR

3.4 Robertson (turns 40 in April)

3.4 Yates (turns 38 in March)

2.1 Jansen (turns 38 in Sept.)\

1.9 Finnegan (turns 34 in Sept)

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Our 7th and 8th relievers aren't All Stars! 

I was merely answering who the AAAA relievers are.  These are the guys we saw way too much of for a stretch last year blowing leads aplenty, along with other departed ones of course.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I was merely answering who the AAAA relievers are.  These are the guys we saw way too much of for a stretch last year blowing leads aplenty, along with other departed ones of course.

We ended up adding a lot of pitchers after opening day and used 32 plus D Smith and Reyes.

Besides Paxton, Hill, Garcia and Sims, we also picked up Y Ramirez, Wingenter, Priester and Horn.

This year, we may not have to go outside the system, as much, but we may end up cycling through 25-30 pitchers to find the right 13, or to fill injury openings.

Here is how I see the depth chart:

13 SP'ers

MLB: Crochet, Houck, Bello, Buehler, Giolito, Crawford

AAA: Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins (not on 40: Fulmer, Gambrell, Drohan)

22+  RP'ers

MLB: Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Wilson, Weissert

AAA: Guerrero, Bernardino, A Adams, Penrod, Kelly

(not on 40: Mata, I Campbell, J Moran, W Mills, N Davis, R Stock, S Newcomb, B Van Belle, H Harris,

plus B Cellucci, W Olds, J Adames)

Maybe we add someone, at the deadline, if we are in the race, but I doubt we add 6-7, like '24.

 

[mvp 78]

54 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I was merely answering who the AAAA relievers are.  These are the guys we saw way too much of for a stretch last year blowing leads aplenty, along with other departed ones of course.

At least you didn't mention Zack Kelly.