Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Needs to be bullied harder. 

Unfortunately Crochet may be enough to save off the fan base, and while that was a very very very nice addition.....the team needs to do more. 

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

And it was a long shot at best, given the Union preference that players take the largest offer…

When a guy takes lesser money, it's usually with the caveat that he was actually getting the same AAV with one less year to move closer to home, or it was a year less but higher AAV.

When it's not all about the money.....the money is very very very close. 

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

He very well may have for $765 million

Cohen not only went to $765 million, he:

-gave an opt out after 5 years that the Mets can void by adding $40 million to the remaining deal and making it $805 million.

-gave Soto and his family the use of a luxury suite at the park plus God knows what other perks.

Even the Yanks had to give up at that point. 

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Or maybe John Henry the Fenway Grinch grows some balls and actually wins a bid for a premium player 

One could argue that can only be Burnes.

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Cohen not only went to $765 million, he:

-gave an opt out after 5 years that the Mets can void by adding $40 million to the remaining deal and making it $805 million.

-gave Soto and his family the use of a luxury suite at the park plus God knows what other perks.

Even the Yanks had to give up at that point. 

Yeah.....I think the money is what did it.  Any deal was bound to have opt outs, I would have been fine with 5 years of Soto and the Luxury Suite is whatever. 

That's great for the Mets.  They have the power to walk away from that when Soto turns 30.  And if he still looks like a HOF talent and $80 million is the new $50 million they just might exercise that option. 

[Hugh2]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

One could argue that can only be Burnes.

One could argue that now. 

 

I wouldn't hate Buehler or Flaherty.....but Burnes is at the top of my Christmas Wish list. 

Burnes/Crochet/Houck/Giolito/Bello just screams playoffs. 

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Yeah.....I think the money is what did it.  Any deal was bound to have opt outs, I would have been fine with 5 years of Soto and the Luxury Suite is whatever. 

The Yanks actually balked at giving him a suite because Judge and other stars have always paid for theirs.

Obviously the money is the biggest decider but it seems like Cohen also made a strong impression by treating Soto like royalty in every way. 

[moonslav59]

I don't see Buehler as even a small splash. He'd be a project with hopes he pulls a Sale and an expectation of maybe a Paxton 2023.

Flaherty would be nice, but I'd want a Hoffman or Teoscar/Santander with him to make some ripples.

[Hugh2]

13 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Yanks actually balked at giving him a suite because Judge and other stars have always paid for theirs.

Obviously the money is the biggest decider but it seems like Cohen also made a strong impression by treating Soto like royalty in every way. 

Yankees are old, they get too caught up tradition.  Kind of nice to see them lose out that way. 

[Hugh2]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't see Buehler as even a small splash. He'd be a project with hopes he pulls a Sale and an expectation of maybe a Paxton 2023.

Flaherty would be nice, but I'd want a Hoffman or Teoscar/Santander with him to make some ripples.

Priester is a project.  Buehler is a guy who if healthy is maybe just a tweak away from being an ACE again. 

 

Paxton also didn't have the luxury of pitching in 2022.  Buehler already has that recovery year underneath his belt. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

Priester is a project.  Buehler is a guy who if healthy is maybe just a tweak away from being an ACE again. 

I'm with you on the Buehler train, man. 

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Priester is a project.  Buehler is a guy who if healthy is maybe just a tweak away from being an ACE again. 

 

Paxton also didn't have the luxury of pitching in 2022.  Buehler already has that recovery year underneath his belt. 

I saw Sale as a project, after pitching some the years before his next season of sparse playing time, too.

I fully understand the upside to Buehler, but I just can't see signing him as a "splash" anymore than I saw Paxton as one. Buehler has had just 2 seasons over 138 IP. I can't get excited about that, and the same issue is what concerns me about Crochet, but he had a full season, last year. Buehler had 10 nice IP.

I won't be bummed, if we sign him, but if he's the only pitcher we add between now and opening day, I will be.

The guy could be great. I'm just sick of "could be's." 

I got sick of Sale's "could be's," too. I still am. The fact that he cam back after 5 whiffs is not something that encourages me about Buehler.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

24 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm with you on the Buehler train, man. 

For those who worry about Walker's wear and tear, just remember what Cousin Ferris says is real simple: "Whatever mileage we put on, we'll take off. We'll drive home backwards."

[notin]

39 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Priester is a project.  Buehler is a guy who if healthy is maybe just a tweak away from being an ACE again. 

 

Paxton also didn't have the luxury of pitching in 2022.  Buehler already has that recovery year underneath his belt. 

Buehler has ace caliber ability, but he’s also a tweak away from never pitching again…

[notin]

12 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

For those who worry about Walker's wear and tear, just remember what Cousin Ferris says is real simple: "Whatever mileage we put on, we'll take off. We'll drive home backwards."

More worried about the tear than the wear…

[Hugh2]

Just now, notin said:

Buehler has ace caliber ability, but he’s also a tweak away from never pitching again…

Is he different than any other guy that's had Tommy John other than he's had two? Nate Eovaldi seemed to recover from his second one just fine. 80-90% of people return to full performance. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Just saw a chart of Red Sox salaries by contract for 2025. In order of who will be paid the most money:

Devers, Story, Giolito, Yoshida, Chapman... Bello, Rafaela, Liam Hendricks.

Holy Crap. Literally. Holy IL players who have hardly contributed or not even played at all yet. Holy Ivy League CBO misappropriations of fun.

No wonder the owner is hesitant to sign any. body. actually. good... and healthy.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Is he different than any other guy that's had Tommy John other than he's had two? Nate Eovaldi seemed to recover from his second one just fine. 80-90% of people return to full performance. 

Not after the second one they don't. 

[Hugh2]

We will also find out soon how Jacob DeGrom fairs. 

 

[Hugh2]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Not after the second one they don't. 

How does one measure performance though? Buehlers velocity returned, and so did his spin rate by the time the playoffs came around.  That would suggest the only thing stopping him from becoming an ACE again would be another injury.  I'd be willing to bet if less guys recover from their 2nd they don't even come back a lot of the time.  I'd also be willing to bet guys who don't succeed coming back from their 2nd and 1st don't see a return of velocity and other metrics. 

Odds are well that his elbow is fine for at least another 4-5 years.  Now his shoulder and other injuries? who knows. 

[Hugh2]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

We will also find out soon how Jacob DeGrom fairs. 

 

I forgot he did come back last year and he looked good......for 10 innings.   It's always 10 innings with these guys. 

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Is he different than any other guy that's had Tommy John other than he's had two? Nate Eovaldi seemed to recover from his second one just fine. 80-90% of people return to full performance. 

Having two is a big deal, and fro every Eovaldi that does fine afterwards there’s a Brandon Beachy or Chris Capuano who saw it effectively end their career. And a third one is the end based on history.

Multiple TJs is a big deal, and this doesn’t change because Eovaldi did fine after his second…

[Hugh2]

Just now, notin said:

Having two is a big deal, and fro every Eovaldi that does fine afterwards there’s a Brandon Beachy or Chris Capuano who saw it effectively end their career. And a third one is the end based on history.

Multiple TJs is a big deal, and this doesn’t change because Eovaldi did fine after his second…

Yes it is, but he's already back.  It's not like he didn't make it back to pitching.   Guys who don't recover from their second Tommy Johns don't find their way back to the majors with good velocity and pitching 75 innings.  His stuff also worked its' way back by playoff time as well.  That's also a big deal.  

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

How does one measure performance though? Buehlers velocity returned, and so did his spin rate by the time the playoffs came around.  That would suggest the only thing stopping him from becoming an ACE again would be another injury.  I'd be willing to bet if less guys recover from their 2nd they don't even come back a lot of the time.  I'd also be willing to bet guys who don't succeed coming back from their 2nd and 1st don't see a return of velocity and other metrics. 

Odds are well that his elbow is fine for at least another 4-5 years.  Now his shoulder and other injuries? who knows. 

Is he going to be able to have his velo and spin rates for 600-800 innings or just a 10 inning stretch when the adrenaline is pumping for a WS? If he pitches great for six months to start this year and them blows his arm out again for a 3rd time, it's not a success story. 

He needs to come back and pitch well for a few years at least for it to be considered full performance. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Having two is a big deal, and fro every Eovaldi that does fine afterwards there’s a Brandon Beachy or Chris Capuano who saw it effectively end their career. And a third one is the end based on history.

Multiple TJs is a big deal, and this doesn’t change because Eovaldi did fine after his second…

The first one MIGHT have a high likelihood of being overcome, the second one does NOT have a high likelihood. There's a long list of the 2nd TJS being a career ender or at least a huge career diminisher. It's just not the 80-90% success story that Hugh was stating.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Yes it is, but he's already back.  It's not like he didn't make it back to pitching.   Guys who don't recover from their second Tommy Johns don't find their way back to the majors with good velocity and pitching 75 innings.  His stuff also worked its' way back by playoff time as well.  That's also a big deal.  

Hugh, it's on you to show your work for this. 

[moonslav59]

39 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

How does one measure performance though? Buehlers velocity returned, and so did his spin rate by the time the playoffs came around.  That would suggest the only thing stopping him from becoming an ACE again would be another injury.  I'd be willing to bet if less guys recover from their 2nd they don't even come back a lot of the time.  I'd also be willing to bet guys who don't succeed coming back from their 2nd and 1st don't see a return of velocity and other metrics. 

Odds are well that his elbow is fine for at least another 4-5 years.  Now his shoulder and other injuries? who knows. 

I think Cris Sale messed me up. I just can't cozy up to oft-injured pitchers, at all. When a guy like Gio misses the season, I can get over it, more easily, but when you go out of your way to sign injury-prone or pitchers still in recovery, I'm off the bandwagon.

In 2019, Sale K's 25 of his last 43 batters faced, before going on the IL. He missed 2020 and the first 4 months of '21.

In 2021, when he came back, he had 52 Ks in 43 IP to end the season strong (3.16 ERA with a 2.89 FIP over hs last 5 starts- a larger sample size than Buehler's 10 IP)

Hopes were high for 2022, but he started 2 games for us. He had 54 K in 44 IP, after coming back from that summer injury, and had a 3.92 ERA

After 4 bad starts in his first 5 games in 2023, he had a 3.16 ERA to finish the season, despite missing June and July. Some poster claimed later, we should have known he was back in form.\

Sale poisoned my mind. I'm not sure, if there is an antidote.

I get where some of you are coming from. The guy has very serious upside, but you know, so does Whitlock, and nobody trusts him to give us a great 2025.

 

[notin]

52 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Is he going to be able to have his velo and spin rates for 600-800 innings or just a 10 inning stretch when the adrenaline is pumping for a WS? If he pitches great for six months to start this year and them blows his arm out again for a 3rd time, it's not a success story. 

He needs to come back and pitch well for a few years at least for it to be considered full performance. 

I’m not sold on Buehler yet either.  75 largely ineffective IP in the regular season with a great HR/9 than Kutter Crawford shouldn’t be ignored because of 10 good innings in the postseason.  Buehler is as big of a question mark as Paxton was, and I don’t understand how people can hope they avoid contracts like Kluber in favor of deals like Buehler.

I’d much prefer Manaea or the return of Pivetta, and neither of them make my nipples explode with delight.   Crochet is risky enough…

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m not sold on Buehler yet either.  75 largely ineffective IP in the regular season with a great HR/9 than Kutter Crawford shouldn’t be ignored because of 10 good innings in the postseason.  Buehler is as big of a question mark as Paxton was, and I don’t understand how people can hope they avoid contracts like Kluber in favor of deals like Buehler.

I’d much prefer Manaea or the return of Pivetta, and neither of them make my nipples explode with delight.   Crochet is risky enough…

That's exactly how I see it. We already added one injury-risk pitcher in Crochet, and have Whitlock, Hendriks and Gio slotted in key positions on the 13 man staff.

We need someone durable and dependable. (I know, that's what many felt Gio was, but we gotta play the ods.)

[notin]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That's exactly how I see it. We already added one injury-risk pitcher in Crochet, and have Whitlock, Hendriks and Gio slotted in key positions on the 13 man staff.

We need someone durable and dependable. (I know, that's what many felt Gio was, but we gotta play the ods.)

Manaea? Pivetta? Flaherty isn’t really all that reliable, but I take him over Buehler.  Quintana makes more sense than Buehler.

And we still have Fulmer just recovered from his second TJ.