Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[notin]

13 hours ago, harmony said:

The Mariners might be interested in an MLB-experienced stopgap infielder who would not cost as much as Marcelo Mayer in a trade.

Sure.

Yoshia and Grissom for Castillo and Garver…

[vegasbob]

On 9/9/2024 at 12:37 PM, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

I think the only stat that really matters when comparing the two teams is 82-61 vs 72-71

Finally a comment about the only stat that does matter, w's and L's.   A stat that takes into account all aspects of the game ( Offense/defense/pitching), plus uncontrollable variables from weather to ballpark shapes.  

Wins matter. The second half Red Sox of '24 are seeing the effect of that on their fan base.

[notin]

17 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

Finally a comment about the only stat that does matter, w's and L's.   A stat that takes into account all aspects of the game ( Offense/defense/pitching), plus uncontrollable variables from weather to ballpark shapes.  

Wins matter. The second half Red Sox of '24 are seeing the effect of that on their fan base.

That one stat is built on all the others.  If the Sox are going to improve, hopefully their game plan isn’t “just get more wins”..

[Randy Red Sox]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

One could claim they spent the $10M saved on Sale on Hendriks and O'Neill.

and Hendriks has brought a lot of value hasn't he?

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Sure.

Yoshia and Grissom for Castillo and Garver…

oh yeah i am sure the Mariners would be all over that trade

[notin]

16 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

oh yeah i am sure the Mariners would be all over that trade

They’d save $30mill or so and get their 2b…

[Bellhorn04]

27 minutes ago, notin said:

That one stat is built on all the others.  If the Sox are going to improve, hopefully their game plan isn’t “just get more wins”..

If we say we need to add more WAR, it's pretty much the same thing.  The ultimate objective of WAR is to translate positive and negative play values into wins.

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, Nick said:

I'm more in the line of "you're dead to me". That's I feel about all the injured players.

Giolito? Who really knows when he returns. Guys not on the roster when the season opens in 2025 are meaningless. 

Quit feeding us the BS.

I said I was tired of counting on these guys, which I thought mirrors your position, so how is it BS?

BTW, many on this list will be on the opening day roster and not the IL. I'm still not getting excited about those that do start the year "healthy."

 

[moonslav59]

52 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

and Hendriks has brought a lot of value hasn't he?

Exactly. No matter how you look at it, we swung and missed.

I think you missed my point.

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If we say we need to add more WAR, it's pretty much the same thing.  The ultimate objective of WAR is to translate positive and negative play values into wins.

But we did add WAR but not wins from 2024 to 2024. You pointed that out when I said this team is better tna 2023's.

[harmony]

54 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

oh yeah i am sure the Mariners would be all over that trade

FWIW over the past two seasons Masataka Yoshida and Vaughn Grissom have combined for 0.1 fWAR in 283 games.

That package won't command a handsome return in trade.

[Bellhorn04]

43 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

But we did add WAR but not wins from 2024 to 2024. You pointed that out when I said this team is better tna 2023's.

I said I couldn't figure out how our WAR could be so much higher when our run differential was the same.  You gave the reasons.  It appears that the difference is because of random factors that can't really be controlled for.  So the only way to chase more wins is to chase more of what makes up WAR.

[Bellhorn04]

51 minutes ago, harmony said:

FWIW over the past two seasons Masataka Yoshida and Vaughn Grissom have combined for 0.1 fWAR in 283 games.

That package won't command a handsome return in trade.

I thought notin was being facetious, but maybe not. 

I will say that Yoshida has been giving glimmers of becoming a steady .800 - .825 OPS guy. 

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, harmony said:

FWIW over the past two seasons Masataka Yoshida and Vaughn Grissom have combined for 0.1 fWAR in 283 games.

That package won't command a handsome return in trade.

If you only go by past WAR, why do you want Grissom. There is a disconnect, here.

Also, Garver has a -0.5 fWAR, this year and -$4.1M fangraph's value.

Castillo's fWAR has gone 3.9>3.7>3.3>2.4 and is now under the value of his contract:

Owed $21.6M a year. Fangraph's 2024 value (with a few starts to go) is $19.0M.

Let's not get caught up in WAR as telling the whole story, only when it suits your position.

Garver will make close to $13M and is giving -$4M value. Castillo is paid about $21M and gives about that value. Together, using WAR and contract cost, the Sox make out worse.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I said I couldn't figure out how our WAR could be so much higher when our run differential was the same.  You gave the reasons.  It appears that the difference is because of random factors that can't really be controlled for.  So the only way to chase more wins is to chase more of what makes up WAR.

I agree. We need to try and replace our low WAR players with ones of higher value, even if it does not always translate into more wins. Over the long haul, it should.

Let's look at just a few key teams and their total fWAR values from 2023 to 2024 and compare to the W-L differentials: (I pro-rated the 2024 numbers based on 162 games)

BOS: 78 wins in -23 to projected 81 wins (+3) and fWAR +9.0- P 13.7>14.7 (Pitching got better) B 13.2 >21.2 (Bats WAY BETTER)

KCR: 56 wins to 89 (+33) and fWAR  +22.5- P 8.0> 19.9 (Pitching got WAY BETTER)/ B 11.8>22.4 (Bats WAY BETTER)

MIN: 87 wins to 86 wins (-1) and fWAR -0.6- P 20.3>18.8 (Pitching got worse)/ B 24.3> 25.2 (Bats better)

NYY: 82 wins to 95 (+13) and fWAR + 20.4- P 14.6> 15.0 (Pitching got better)/ B 13.5 >33.5 (Bats WAY BETTER)

BAL: 101 wins to 91 (-10) and fWAR +3.5- P 18.3>17.3 (Pitching got worse)/ B 24.1 >28.6 (Bats better)

HOU: 90 wins to 87 (-3) fWAR -3.2- P 15.2> 14.5 Pitching got worse)/ B 27.8> 25.3 (Bats worse)

CLE: 76 wins to 92 (+16) fWAR +7.7- (P 15.0> 12.8 Pitching got worse)/ B 14.3 > 24.4 (Bats WAY BETTER)

The correlation is not exact. In some cases, it's not close.

[harmony]

41 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If you only go by past WAR, why do you want Grissom. There is a disconnect, here.

Also, Garver has a -0.5 fWAR, this year and -$4.1M fangraph's value.

Castillo's fWAR has gone 3.9>3.7>3.3>2.4 and is now under the value of his contract:

Owed $21.6M a year. Fangraph's 2024 value (with a few starts to go) is $19.0M.

Let's not get caught up in WAR as telling the whole story, only when it suits your position.

Garver will make close to $13M and is giving -$4M value. Castillo is paid about $21M and gives about that value. Together, using WAR and contract cost, the Sox make out worse.

Seattle might be willing to take a low-cost flyer on Vaughn Grissom the way the Mariners took a flyer on Luis Urias, whom the Red Sox virtually gave away last offseason.

Of course, Urias can be distinguished from Grissom because Urias was a non-tender candidate. What kind of return could the Red Sox get in a trade of Grissom?

Over the past two seasons Luis Castillo and Mitch Garver have combined for 7.4 fWAR while Masataka Yoshida and Vaughn Grissom have combined for 0.1 fWAR.

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, notin said:

They’d save $30mill or so and get their 2b…

2 things wrong with that :  1] ZERO chance Henry signs off on a deal that costs him 30 million and 2} the Sox thought they got THEIR 2B........

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, harmony said:

Seattle might be willing to take a low-cost flyer on Vaughn Grissom the way the Mariners took a flyer on Luis Urias, whom the Red Sox virtually gave away last offseason.

Of course, Urias can be distinguished from Grissom because Urias was a non-tender candidate. What kind of return could the Red Sox get in a trade of Grissom?

I seem to remember you saying I Campbell was a good get by BOS, and for someone you and I agree was a non tender type player.

I have no idea what Grissom is worth.  His stock has fallen, despite the recent heating up in AAA. I am not an expert in the value of SEA players, as you well know and point out often enough, and I do not pay for BTV, so maybe Grissom for Collin Snider (as your GM loves trading away RP'ers, and we need some.) Maybe for 2 years of Thornton or 3 years of Saucedo?

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

2 things wrong with that :  1] ZERO chance Henry signs off on a deal that costs him 30 million and 2} the Sox thought they got THEIR 2B........

I totally get your disgust for JH, but he just signed off on a $38M deal for Giolito, and the deal was giving SEA the 2Bman they need, not BOS. BOS gives up Grissom, and we still have our 2Bman. We dump Yoshi and add Castillo for a net cost of $30M over 3 years, or just $10M AAV per season.

[harmony]

notin had the most enticing proposal:

Boston gets: Bryce Miller (55.4)

Texas gets: Wilyer Abreu (29.7)

Seattle gets: Triston Casas(27.9), 3b Josh Smith (23.9)

🙂🙂🙂

 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, harmony said:

notin had the most enticing proposal:

Boston gets: Bryce Miller (55.4)

Texas gets: Wilyer Abreu (29.7)

Seattle gets: Triston Casas(27.9), 3b Josh Smith (23.9)

🙂🙂🙂

 

I'd do this, despite the fact that of all the everyday positions, and all the strong depth we have, corner IF has the least depth of all.

Presumably, we'd move Devers to 1B and use Story, Mayer or Campbell at 3B. Meidroth seems like a long shot to win the 3B job, but he may be the depth we need to not have to add a 3Bman over the winter.

I think the trade works for SEA and TEX, but I'm not expert on what those teams need or want.

By opening a position at 3B for Story, Mayer or Campbell, we lessen the logjam at middle infield. (I know it sounds funny to claim we have a logjam of talent at middle infield, when we have sucked at 2B and SS for 2 seasons, with 2B being 5 seasons in the making, but I am super high on Campbell and think between Mayer and Story, we can cobble together 162 games of healthy and plus play at SS.)

I also like the utility combo of DHam and whoever becomes the RHB guy: Grissom or Romy. Sogard and Meidroth offer extended depth, and Romy or Wong can back up 1B.

I really like Casas, and think his work ethic and batting skills are very good, if not great, but I realize we have to give to get. As much as I've been suggesting an Abreu trade, it does not mean I value him, lowly. I like him, a lot. He plays plus D in RF and is a top 30 batter in MLB, this year, but my optimism on Anthony is through the roof, and if we can get Miller without parting with a top 4 prospect, I'm all in.

Doing this trade costs us no money. If rumors are true that we will not spend, aagin, this winter, I still think a limited budget should allow us to add two pitchers like Flaherty and Sewald. I'm not sure adding Miller, Flaherty and Sewald is enough, especially when you factor in losing Casas, O'Neill, Jansen, martin and Pivetta, but with the influx of prospects, I think we would be significantly better.

Doing more would be great, and if we can shed Yoshi's contract and add another key pitcher and RHB, then WOW! That could be hard to do, and too pie in the sky concerning JH's willingness to spend more than we hope he will.

[Larry Cook]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

This isn't the Realistic thread, so here it goes...

To SEA: 4 yrs of Casas, E R-C and Yoshida (no money, but we pay CWS a lot to take Haniger and Garver off the books for SEA.)

To BOS: 2 yrs of Crochet and 5 yrs of Bryce Miller

To CWS: M Mayer (Prospect,) DHam and 1 yr of Mitch Haniger ($15.5M) plus 1 yr of Mitch Garver ($12.5M) and $20M from BOS to pay for these two. CWS pay each $3M for the year.

Wow!!!  Best three way trade ever!!  I would do this tomorrow if I could. 

[notin]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If we say we need to add more WAR, it's pretty much the same thing.  The ultimate objective of WAR is to translate positive and negative play values into wins.

Incorrect, because WAR can be isolated to each position to show where improvement is needed most.  Can’t do that with W-L record.

Most areas of improvement are obvious on this team.  And will focus on pitching.  But there are other areas just in case it’s not as easy to fix the pitching as many think…

[notin]

2 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Wow!!!  Best three way trade ever!!  I would do this tomorrow if I could. 

So would the other two teams, except for Chicago and Seattle…

[Jasonbay44]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I thought notin was being facetious, but maybe not. 

I will say that Yoshida has been giving glimmers of becoming a steady .800 - .825 OPS guy. 

Yoshida can definitely hit, the problem is he is slow, can’t field and doesn’t have a ton of power, so he’s a bit limited as a player and I’m not sure how many teams are in need of a pure DH

[Larry Cook]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

So would the other two teams, except for Chicago and Seattle…

I make no claims to the value of the product received by the other teams!!! Haha 

[Larry Cook]

4 minutes ago, Jasonbay44 said:

Yoshida can definitely hit, the problem is he is slow, can’t field and doesn’t have a ton of power, so he’s a bit limited as a player and I’m not sure how many teams are in need of a pure DH

He is perfect for Seattle. Iszuki light!!! 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Jasonbay44 said:

Yoshida can definitely hit, the problem is he is slow, can’t field and doesn’t have a ton of power, so he’s a bit limited as a player and I’m not sure how many teams are in need of a pure DH

The idea is SEA needs hitting and Yoshida seems like an upgrade at DH over Garver and or Haniger. Is it enough to move the needle? Maybe not. Is his cost, even if we pay some of his contract a turn-off for SEA? Maybe- maybe not, especially if we pay a lot or take back Garver and or Haniger.

I do not think SEA views the Castillo contract as a burden or net negative, but trading away the last few years of his contract does make some sense, if they use the savings to add a FA bat somewhere, thereby improve their offense at DH and another slot. To me, if I was SEA, I'd rather trade Castillo than 5 years of Miller, Gilbert or Kirby. Maybe even more than trading Woo.

I've always liked Castillo, so I know I am biased, there, but I think we can come up with something that works for both teams. Our depth at offense is such that I think we can overpay there to get the upgrade we need at pitching. I think 4 or 5 of SEA's SP'ers would slot #1 for us. At worst, some might be #2's behind Houck, and that is precisely what we need.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

He is perfect for Seattle. Iszuki light!!! 

If they seem him in that light, then maybe a deal can be made. I'm not sure how much appeal Yoshi has to the fanbase, or specifically the Asian fan base, but maybe some.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

2 things wrong with that :  1] ZERO chance Henry signs off on a deal that costs him 30 million and 2} the Sox thought they got THEIR 2B........

Well, 2b had had a lot of changes since the Sox acquired Grissom.  Hamilton and Kristian Campbell, to name two.

 

The big issue in that deal is Seattle giving up 31yo Luis Castillo, who has 3 years $73.5 mill (or so) left on his contract.  And so far this year, he’s given them 1.9 bWAR for an ROI, a mean drop from last seSo 3.4 bWAR.  Granted, could be one bad season.  It happens.  And most likely, Seattle keeps him to find out.  But if they move him, they can upgrade at DH and dump Mitch Garver and his Offensive Ineptitude as opposed to paying him $13mill to be a backup catcher…