Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[mvp 78]

Despite this year's disappointments. Seattle is fairly well-positioned for the next few years.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P55um0jB8gsz4M2Q7hFeD6aFki7n74DBC1tsWXwoD5U/edit?pli=1&gid=1520401900#gid=1520401900

 

The Mariners are unlikely to undergo a full rebuild by trading valuable assets for prospects. The M's are more likely to trade prospects for an established bat.

 

Can the Red Sox manipulate the service time of Triston Casas to leave the first baseman short of two years at the end of this season? Would the Sox trade Casas for five years of Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo?

 

The Mariners and Red Sox probably don't match up for a trade.

 

Are Miller or Woo interested in extensions? That could adjust how I feel about it.

 

1. Casas seems to struggle with injuries

2. Casas seems less inclined for an extension

 

I love his vibe. I love his bat. I don’t see him here in 10 years.

[moonslav59]

Fantastic laydown--including your 2d post on the same topic--as only you are capable of doing.

 

I pretty much buy your central argument, which is that this time, finally, Breslow needs to be empowered to fix the pitching by offering up both top Sox prospects and competitive salaries for incoming pitchers. As you say, the Sox can do that and stay below $241M (total payroll).

 

If we disagree, it might be about how deep next year's outfield is compared to the infield because I see an infield with Devers, Casas, Story, and Mayer backed up by Hamilton, Campbell, Grissom, and Gonzalez. The outfield: Rafaela, Duran, Abreu, Ref, and Anthony.

 

I also think Breslow needs to look for one or more good righty bats. The Sox splits this year vs lefty pitchers provide compelling evidence to support that. Duran's OPS dips to .667, Devers .760, Yoshida .639, Abreu .512, Hamilton .566.

 

I'm just not sure we can count on Story for 140+ games. I like Mayer, a lot, but our OF is proven.

[moonslav59]

Despite this year's disappointments. Seattle is fairly well-positioned for the next few years.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P55um0jB8gsz4M2Q7hFeD6aFki7n74DBC1tsWXwoD5U/edit?pli=1&gid=1520401900#gid=1520401900

 

The Mariners are unlikely to undergo a full rebuild by trading valuable assets for prospects. The M's are more likely to trade prospects for an established bat.

 

Can the Red Sox manipulate the service time of Triston Casas to leave the first baseman short of two years at the end of this season? Would the Sox trade Casas for five years of Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo?

 

The Mariners and Red Sox probably don't match up for a trade.

 

You never like Sox players. No Sox players are better than Mariners, at any position, yet look at the team records.

[moonslav59]

Are Miller or Woo interested in extensions? That could adjust how I feel about it.

 

1. Casas seems to struggle with injuries

2. Casas seems less inclined for an extension

 

I love his vibe. I love his bat. I don’t see him here in 10 years.

 

Trading Casas only makes sense, if we move Devers to 1B. Do we then look to have Mater at 3B and Campbell at 2B by 2026?

 

I think trading Anthony, Mayer or Teel as part of a major package makes more sense.

[Bellhorn04]

Trading Casas only makes sense, if we move Devers to 1B. Do we then look to have Mater at 3B and Campbell at 2B by 2026?

 

I think trading Anthony, Mayer or Teel as part of a major package makes more sense.

 

They are hyping those 3 so much they just might be off limits.

[moonslav59]

They are hyping those 3 so much they just might be off limits.

 

I can certainly see the Sox thinking, let's allow all these kids to come up and give us many inexpensive years. It makes a lot of sense, especially to an owner turned miser.

 

I just don't see how we will fit them all on the 13 everyday player roster. We simply have to trade someone for a pitcher. Maybe, it's Abreu or Casas, and not a big 3 or 4 prospect. Maybe we find a taker for Story or Yoshida to make room for some kids. We aren't getting a top pitcher for Abreu, so I'm not sure that works, unless we decide to spend big on FA pitchers and trade Abreu for a #3 SP'er or top set-up man.

[Bellhorn04]

I can certainly see the Sox thinking, let's allow all these kids to come up and give us many inexpensive years. It makes a lot of sense, especially to an owner turned miser.

 

I just don't see how we will fit them all on the 13 everyday player roster. We simply have to trade someone for a pitcher. Maybe, it's Abreu or Casas, and not a big 3 or 4 prospect. Maybe we find a taker for Story or Yoshida to make room for some kids. We aren't getting a top pitcher for Abreu, so I'm not sure that works, unless we decide to spend big on FA pitchers and trade Abreu for a #3 SP'er or top set-up man.

 

Don't rule out the possibility they just do another Richards/Kluber type signing to replace Pivetta and call it a day with the rotation. Giolito and Whitlock will be the big additions!

[mvp 78]

Trading Casas only makes sense, if we move Devers to 1B. Do we then look to have Mater at 3B and Campbell at 2B by 2026?

 

I think trading Anthony, Mayer or Teel as part of a major package makes more sense.

 

I'd keep Mayer at SS probably. Story would go to 2b and mix and match with whatever else you want to put there. 3B would be a mystery. Meidroth?

[mvp 78]

They are hyping those 3 so much they just might be off limits.

 

Putting too much pressure on them.

[mvp 78]

Don't rule out the possibility they just do another Richards/Kluber type signing to replace Pivetta and call it a day with the rotation. Giolito and Whitlock will be the big additions!

 

I gave Whitlock his final chance this year. Never again.

[moonslav59]

Don't rule out the possibility they just do another Richards/Kluber type signing to replace Pivetta and call it a day with the rotation. Giolito and Whitlock will be the big additions!

 

Oh, trust me, that is my expectation.

 

Don't forget Henriks and Fulmer.

 

My ideas I'm posting here, are hopes not expectations or predictions.

 

I have not totally given up on the idea that one day JH will open his wallet, but I'm not going to expect it. I'll believe it when I see it, and I could understand the logic that if big spending is in the future plans, 2026 looks more likely. (That's what scares me the most: I'm sick of waiting until next year.)

[moonslav59]

I'd keep Mayer at SS probably. Story would go to 2b and mix and match with whatever else you want to put there. 3B would be a mystery. Meidroth?

 

We know we won't be signing Chapman to play 3B.

 

Does Campbell have the arm for 3B?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Don't rule out the possibility they just do another Richards/Kluber type signing to replace Pivetta and call it a day with the rotation. Giolito and Whitlock will be the big additions!

 

Don't worry, you know what's coming - our next core of sustained contenders. They should be established veterans by 2028... 2030 at the latest!

 

THAT'S when they'll spend on major league pitching -- legitimate starters for a deep rotation, and an endless supply of relievers who throw a hundred with a change-up.

[moonslav59]

The Sox rank 30th in OAA (-14) at SS and 29th in DRS (-12) and 28th in UZR/150 at -8.5.

 

Fixing this problem with Mayer or Story at SS would be a big improvement. Also, the team is last in 2B OAA (-9), so moving Story to 2B would give us a double boost at 2 key positions.

 

Moving Rafaela to FT CF helps, too. He is +9 DRS in CF and +4 OAA.

 

Up the middle D is most essential. Duran in LF and CF is a plus. Abreu has looked inconsistent in RF but has put up good numbers (5th in RF OAA at +2 and 4th in DRS at +6.)

 

Devers and Casas give us subpar D, but at least they are at positions of lower importance for D. Our catchers rank near the bottom on D.

[Bellhorn04]

Don't worry, you know what's coming - our next core of sustained contenders. They should be established veterans by 2028... 2030 at the latest!

 

THAT'S when they'll spend on major league pitching -- legitimate starters for a deep rotation, and an endless supply of relievers who throw a hundred with a change-up.

 

2025 will be another year of assessing what they have!

[Hugh2]

Despite this year's disappointments. Seattle is fairly well-positioned for the next few years.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P55um0jB8gsz4M2Q7hFeD6aFki7n74DBC1tsWXwoD5U/edit?pli=1&gid=1520401900#gid=1520401900

 

The Mariners are unlikely to undergo a full rebuild by trading valuable assets for prospects. The M's are more likely to trade prospects for an established bat.

 

Can the Red Sox manipulate the service time of Triston Casas to leave the first baseman short of two years at the end of this season? Would the Sox trade Casas for five years of Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo?

 

The Mariners and Red Sox probably don't match up for a trade.

 

 

Mariners need hitting.

 

Sox need pitching.

 

Seems like a match up to me.

[moonslav59]

2025 will be another year of assessing what they have!

 

Could be, or we could wait on starting the service time clocks on Mayer, Anthony, Teel, Fitts and others.

 

I'm not sure how much more we have to "find out" about our everyday players, except maybe Rafaela's bat and if 2024 was a fluke by Wong.

 

The pitching staff is mostly a mess, although putting a few guys into different roles could help, but that would take adding 4-5 pitchers into the top of the rotation and pen slots, from outside the organization. I don't see that happening, so it won't matter much how well the everyday players do.

[moonslav59]

Mariners need hitting.

 

Sox need pitching.

 

Seems like a match up to me.

 

He thinks every Mariner everyday player is better than every Sox player. Maybe not Devers, but he's not available.

 

Out of the top 11 batters by PAs on the Mariners, only 2 have an OPS above .690, and none are above .737!

 

Conversely, out of the top 11 Sox batters, none are below .682. The top 10 are all above .699. Seven of our batters have a higher OPS than SEA's top batter's .747:

.966 Devers

.884 O'Neill

.863 Refsnyder

.845 Duran

.836 Abreu

.826 Yoshida

.775 Wong

 

DHam's .723 would place 3rd.

 

(THis isn't even counting Casas .816 or Romy .760.)

 

Edited August 20, 2024 by moonslav59

[harmony]

You never like Sox players. No Sox players are better than Mariners, at any position, yet look at the team records.

Despite this year's anomaly, since the start of the 2020 season the Seattle Mariners have a cumulative regular-season record of 359-313, 22 wins better than the Red Sox record of 337-333 (which includes 92 wins in 2021).

 

The Red Sox should be commended for their surprising resurgence.

 

As already suggested, Triston Casas could represent a marked upgrade for the Mariners.

[Nick]

Could be, or we could wait on starting the service time clocks on Mayer, Anthony, Teel, Fitts and others.

 

I'm not sure how much more we have to "find out" about our everyday players, except maybe Rafaela's bat and if 2024 was a fluke by Wong.

 

The pitching staff is mostly a mess, although putting a few guys into different roles could help, but that would take adding 4-5 pitchers into the top of the rotation and pen slots, from outside the organization. I don't see that happening, so it won't matter much how well the everyday players do.

 

Rafaela ship has sailed, no? He's in his first year of 8 year deal. I think he's here to stay, good bat or otherwise.

 

So we have

 

#1 starter

#2 starter

#3 starter

#4 starter, Houck

#5 starter, Kutter

#6 starter, Bello

#7 starter, Giolito

#8 starter, Whitlock

 

that should be enough

 

We need 'punters' I hear.

[notin]

I'd keep Mayer at SS probably. Story would go to 2b and mix and match with whatever else you want to put there. 3B would be a mystery. Meidroth?

 

I imagine Mayer starts in Polar Park, in case Story continues his MIA streak. Grissom, like him or not, is going to get a legitimate shot someplace. They paid up on Sale to get this guy. They’re not relegating him to AAAA utility infielder after 80 PA.

 

If they deal Casas for pitching and move Devers to 1b, that does leave 3b open. Grissom?

 

Casas doesn’t match up with any Seattle pitcher on BTV. But Casas plus Abreu is roughly equal to Bryce Miller on that site. Moving Abreu frees up right field for the on oncoming Roman Anthony Express…

[moonslav59]

Despite this year's anomaly, since the start of the 2020 season the Seattle Mariners have a cumulative regular-season record of 359-313, 22 wins better than the Red Sox record of 337-333 (which includes 92 wins in 2021).

 

The Red Sox should be commended for their surprising resurgence.

 

As already suggested, Triston Casas could represent a marked upgrade for the Mariners.

 

Hardly any players on the Sox were around in 2020 or even 2021. Only a few were here in 2022. SEA has made more trades than any team in MLB.

 

I'm not sure why it matters what the records were from 2020-2023. The Sox have several everyday players that are better than yours. If you think only Casas offers and upgrade, I'd say you are selling Sox player short.

 

I do realize it is not all about being better on offense. Better D is part of the reason your team has a better record than us, over the years- that and better pitching, but let's look at fWAR, which measures O + D:

 

OF: (I think SEA would love to add Duran, Rafaela, Abreu or maybe even Ref.)

5.5 Duran

2.5 Abreu

2.2 O'Neill (FA after '24)

2.0 Julio Rodriguez

1.5 Dylan Moore (UT)

1.4 Refsnyder

1.2 Arozarena (2 teams)

1.2 Raley

0.9 Rafaela

-0.5 Haniger (371 PAs)

 

Corner IF (There will be no Devers to SEA trade.)

4.5 Devers

1.6 Rojas

0,4 Casas

(Ty France>Justin Turner) Casas would be a big upgrade at 1B.

 

Middle IF (I doubt SEA wants DHam, granted.)

1.6 DHam

1.4 Crawford

0.3 Romy

 

C (No match for trade here)

3.5 Raleigh

0.9 Wong

 

DH (Maybe Yoshida+ cash would work out.)

1.1 Yoshida

-0.5 Garver (371 PAs)

[notin]

We know we won't be signing Chapman to play 3B.

 

Does Campbell have the arm for 3B?

 

Always possible:

 

1b: Devers

2b: Grissom

3b: Story

SS: Mayer

 

Or 3b could be a free agent. Options besides Chapman include Bregman (ugh), Moncada (major health issues) or Eugenio Suarez (low BA/OBP, but solid RHH power)…

[mvp 78]

I imagine Mayer starts in Polar Park, in case Story continues his MIA streak. Grissom, like him or not, is going to get a legitimate shot someplace. They paid up on Sale to get this guy. They’re not relegating him to AAAA utility infielder after 80 PA.

 

If they deal Casas for pitching and move Devers to 1b, that does leave 3b open. Grissom?

 

Casas doesn’t match up with any Seattle pitcher on BTV. But Casas plus Abreu is roughly equal to Bryce Miller on that site. Moving Abreu frees up right field for the on oncoming Roman Anthony Express…

 

I would make sure to super two Anthony and Mayer. I'm not as concerned about Teel TBH.

 

I'd still put Story at 2B on day one with the plan of handing SS to Mayer at some point early on in the season. If Story can stick at 2B all year, great. He was great there in 22.

[notin]

I would make sure to super two Anthony and Mayer. I'm not as concerned about Teel TBH.

 

I'd still put Story at 2B on day one with the plan of handing SS to Mayer at some point early on in the season. If Story can stick at 2B all year, great. He was great there in 22.

 

What about Grissom? He isn’t dead. No reason to treat him like he is…

[moonslav59]

Rafaela ship has sailed, no? He's in his first year of 8 year deal. I think he's here to stay, good bat or otherwise.

 

So we have

 

#1 starter

#2 starter

#3 starter

#4 starter, Houck

#5 starter, Kutter

#6 starter, Bello

#7 starter, Giolito

#8 starter, Whitlock

 

that should be enough

 

We need 'punters' I hear.

 

I only mentioned Rafaela's offense may still need more evaluation. I didn't come close to writing him off. (He's one of my favorite players and reminds me of a previous fave of mine, JBJ.)

 

I'd say our rotation is more like this for 2025:

 

SP1_____

SP2_____

SP3 Houck

SP4 Bello

SP5 Giolito

SP6 Crawford

SP6 Criswell

SP7 Whitlock/Wink/Fitts/Dobbins

[mvp 78]

Always possible:

 

1b: Devers

2b: Grissom

3b: Story

SS: Mayer

 

Or 3b could be a free agent. Options besides Chapman include Bregman (ugh), Moncada (major health issues) or Eugenio Suarez (low BA/OBP, but solid RHH power)…

 

Grissom's throwing mechanics are what makes it a weird fit for 2B. It makes more sense for him to be a corner OF or 3B. He just can't turn a double play without it being Valdez-esque.

[notin]

Thoughts

 

C: Teel, Wong

1b: Devers

2b: Grissom

3b: Eugenio Suarez (free agent. Still good D using UZR and OAA. Likely to take a one year deal)

SS: Story, to start the year.

LF: Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: Anthony. If he gets a Rafaela type extension, Super Two is not a concern.

 

SP: Houck, Bello, Crawford, Bryce Miller (acquired for Casas and Abreu) and another (Pivetta?)

RP: Hendriks, Whitlock, Winckowski, Slaten, Kelly plus 3 others TBD

 

Mayer can start in Worcester and come up if Story gets hurt or a Grissom just flops…

[moonslav59]

Grissom's throwing mechanics are what makes it a weird fit for 2B. It makes more sense for him to be a corner OF or 3B. He just can't turn a double play without it being Valdez-esque.

 

So, maybe... (assuming Casas trade)

 

1B: Devers (Romy)

2B: Story (DHam-Grissom/Romy)

SS: Mayer (Story/Romy-DHam)

3B: Grissom (Devers/Romy/Meidroth)

[notin]

Grissom's throwing mechanics are what makes it a weird fit for 2B. It makes more sense for him to be a corner OF or 3B. He just can't turn a double play without it being Valdez-esque.

 

I’m ok with re-arranging the pieces. It’s a modular suggestion…