A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

@SoxProspects

Our @SPChrisHatfield reports, per an organization source, that Keller has re-signed with the Red Sox on a minor league deal after refusing the option.

 

Well, at least he's not on the 40 man anymore.

 

"Keller will be as good as any other Keller we could add if he passed through waivers," said Sam.

 

"The Keller awoke before dawn. He put his boots on. He took a face from the ancient gallery and he walked on down the hall," said Jim.

[moonslav59]

"Keller will be as good as any other Keller we could add if he passed through waivers," said Sam.

 

 

I'd rather we sign Helen Keller.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd rather we sign Helen Keller.

 

Terrible but funny.

[moonslav59]

Terrible but funny.

 

Joseph Heller might be even better, but there is a "Catch."

Edited August 13, 2024 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

I know this will surprise many and bum out many more, but Paxton is expected to miss the rest of the season with a partially torn calf muscle.

 

In other news...

Pivetta is expected to start on Thursday (Arm fatigue.)

Criswell looks close to be activated (COVID)

Slaten threw off the mound for the first time since July 9th.

O'Neill's leg infection has shown "slow progress." He has not resumed any baseball activities, so the AUG 14th eligible date will not be his return date.

Casas is rehabbing with Woo and playing tonight.

Hendriks will throw his 3rd live batting practice and may start a rehab assignment soon.

 

[dgalehouse]

Mookie returned to the Dodger lineup last night. He promptly homered and led them to victory. By the way, Mookie is not without his quirks. He stayed at an Airbnb instead of the team hotel in Milwaukee because he thinks the hotel is haunted.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Mookie returned to the Dodger lineup last night. He promptly homered and led them to victory. By the way, Mookie is not without his quirks. He stayed at an Airbnb instead of the team hotel in Milwaukee because he thinks the hotel is haunted.

 

Last time Mookie stayed there, he felt a distinct disturbance. "Who are you!" he demanded.

 

A tentative voice whooshed down the hallway. "Eye-mmmm... BlOOOOOOOOOmmmm!"

 

(the Ghost of Bizness Past)

[Randy Red Sox]

Crawford has kind of a unique short-arm delivery. It could be that hitters are starting to figure it out. I do think there are a lot of tired arms in MLB these days. And I think the pitch clock is at least somewhat to blame.

 

I have said that about Crawford before so yes I agree

[moonslav59]

We are back to tied with KCR in the loss column.

 

BAL & NYY are 70-50 (one should be a WC team)

67-52 MIN (is playing well.)

65-55 KCR

64-55 HOU (ALW leader)

 

63-55 BOS -1.0

63-57 SEA -2.0

59-60 TBR -5.5

 

Let's hope our rotation is on the path to some sort of rebound. While April sure looks like a fluke, now, I don't think it is as bad as it has looked over the last month, too.

 

The rotation is likely somewhere in between, and let's hope they do closer to April's form than July's.

 

We play TEX, tomorrow, while KCR plays MIN, again.

 

We go to BAL THU, FRI, SAT, SUN, while KCR has THU off.

MIN goes to TEX THU-SUN.

KCR goes to CIN FRI-SUN. (Cincy is still in the NL WC race.)

Edited August 14, 2024 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

MLB has really become the parity league.

 

The top 5 teams (BAL, CLE, LAD, PHI & NYY) are all within a half game of each other.

 

The next 4 teams (MIL, MIN, ARI & SDP) are within a game of each other and just 2-3 games behind the first group.

 

The bubble group of 6 teams (KCR, HOU, BOS, SEA, ATL & NYM) are all 3.5 games apart and between 1.5 and 5 games from a playoff slot.

 

Even teams like STL, SFG and TBR are hanging around- just one win streak from being in the next group up.

 

20 teams are within 5.5 games of a WC slot or division lead.

[notin]

Mookie returned to the Dodger lineup last night. He promptly homered and led them to victory. By the way, Mookie is not without his quirks. He stayed at an Airbnb instead of the team hotel in Milwaukee because he thinks the hotel is haunted.

 

Was it the Pfister Hotel? Very haunted!

 

Of course, so are most of the Airbnb’s in that neighborhood…

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS (240+ PAs)

.969 Devers

.901 O'Neill

.863 Refsnyder

.853 Duran

.833 Abreu

.793 Wong

.755 Yoshida

.715 Rafaela

.710 Smith

.704 Hamilton

 

All 10 are above .700. (Jansen is at 1.139 with BOS)

 

XBH

63 Duran

61 Devers

 

RBI

72 Devers

58 Duran & Rafaela

 

SB

30 DHam (just 4 CS)

29 Duran (just 4 CS)

17 Rafaela

 

Runs + RBI- HRs

122 Devers

119 Duran

107 Rafaela

82 O'Neill

80 Abreu

77 Wong

[mvp 78]

Amir Garrett was released by the Angels. Not sure if there's any meat on that bone.

[mvp 78]

@bradfo

Tyler O’Neil had been admitted to MGH since Saturday morning after being in KC hospital for a couple of days. Said going to run around today after being in hospital bed for five days. All due to leg infection.

 

Kansas City is a third world country.

[notin]

Amir Garrett was released by the Angels. Not sure if there's any meat on that bone.

 

5 IP this year. None since May 14th.

 

Is he even healthy?

[mvp 78]

He was pitching in AAA.

[Hugh2]

Never realized Betts was so superstitious like that.

 

Hey no one is perfect, we all got character flaws and I’m the last one to throw rocks…….and I can’t hit a 90 mph fastball

[notin]

Never realized Betts was so superstitious like that.

 

Hey no one is perfect, we all got character flaws and I’m the last one to throw rocks…….and I can’t hit a 90 mph fastball

 

 

Most ball players are superstitious to some extent…

[Randy Red Sox]

Amir Garrett was released by the Angels. Not sure if there's any meat on that bone.

 

if he agrees to a M/L deal without meal money he might be an option

[Old Red]

A 2-4 home stand that could have been 3-3, and also could have been 1-5. Now a nice little 7 game road trip where the Red Sox have played better ball. Balt, and Houston, which should be a fun trip. On the road again. I just can’t wait to get on the road again.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A 2-4 home stand that could have been 3-3, and also could have been 1-5. Now a nice little 7 game road trip where the Red Sox have played better ball. Balt, and Houston, which should be a fun trip. On the road again. I just can’t wait to get on the road again.

 

MLB.com's latest farm system rankings have Red Sox at #7, explained by the usual super position prospects, and stupor in the pitching department.

 

Houston's farm is rated dead last, #30... and yet somehow -- almost every year -- they pump out fresh regulars to replace departing mainstays (like Springer, Correa, Maldonado, etc) and find good MAJOR LEAGUE pitchers to fill in for injured arms.

 

When a team advances to the final round of the playoffs with a chance at the World Series for seven straight years, it isn't luck. Smart billionaire owners of other clubs must look less at Yale and Tampa and more towards Texas for inspiration -- and future employees -- if they're actually trying to win...

[Hugh2]

MLB.com's latest farm system rankings have Red Sox at #7, explained by the usual super position prospects, and stupor in the pitching department.

 

Houston's farm is rated dead last, #30... and yet somehow -- almost every year -- they pump out fresh regulars to replace departing mainstays (like Springer, Correa, Maldonado, etc) and find good MAJOR LEAGUE pitchers to fill in for injured arms.

 

When a team advances to the final round of the playoffs with a chance at the World Series for seven straight years, it isn't luck. Smart billionaire owners of other clubs must look less at Yale and Tampa and more towards Texas for inspiration -- and future employees -- if they're actually trying to win...

 

 

Houston also hasn't had a last place farm system for very long, up until recently they've had one of the best farm systems for years. That's because they had almost an entire decade of good higher draft picks with the height being between 2012-2015 when they had the first overall pick THREE years in a row and then the 2nd pick in 2015. Those were the farm systems yielding those reinforcements, things might look very different for the Astros going forward as their window may be closing.

 

Sox have a 5th-7th best farm according to people, and this is a new development as up until recently they've sucked.

 

Henry can certainly find a way to pinch his pennies out of a competitive team but the Sox are better positioned over the next 5 years than the Astros are.

[mvp 78]

MLB.com's latest farm system rankings have Red Sox at #7, explained by the usual super position prospects, and stupor in the pitching department.

 

Houston's farm is rated dead last, #30... and yet somehow -- almost every year -- they pump out fresh regulars to replace departing mainstays (like Springer, Correa, Maldonado, etc) and find good MAJOR LEAGUE pitchers to fill in for injured arms.

 

When a team advances to the final round of the playoffs with a chance at the World Series for seven straight years, it isn't luck. Smart billionaire owners of other clubs must look less at Yale and Tampa and more towards Texas for inspiration -- and future employees -- if they're actually trying to win...

 

Kiley McDaniel had them at 10, but explained with Campbell's rise and some promotions elsewhere, the Sox should now be 5th or 6th.

[Hugh2]

Kiley McDaniel had them at 10, but explained with Campbell's rise and some promotions elsewhere, the Sox should now be 5th or 6th.

 

The seperation in the top 10 is so small, as evidence by Campbells addition rising the Sox to the top 5.

 

Makes you wonder if someone like Perales didn't go down how much higher they could have been, maybe even top 3. But I suppose every organization has fast risers who go down and lose guys during the year.

[notin]

Houston also hasn't had a last place farm system for very long, up until recently they've had one of the best farm systems for years. That's because they had almost an entire decade of good higher draft picks with the height being between 2012-2015 when they had the first overall pick THREE years in a row and then the 2nd pick in 2015. Those were the farm systems yielding those reinforcements, things might look very different for the Astros going forward as their window may be closing.

 

Sox have a 5th-7th best farm according to people, and this is a new development as up until recently they've sucked.

 

Henry can certainly find a way to pinch his pennies out of a competitive team but the Sox are better positioned over the next 5 years than the Astros are.

 

Bloom also inflated the Sox farm system by taking more low risk position players in order to bulk up prospect quantity.

 

Houston is a great example of this strategy. Those three number one overall picks included one shortstop and two pitchers. The shortstop has been an All Star multiple times. Both pitchers were complete busts who combined for 10 IP in the majors, with those all occurring 10 years after being drafted…

[mvp 78]

The seperation in the top 10 is so small, as evidence by Campbells addition rising the Sox to the top 5.

 

Makes you wonder if someone like Perales didn't go down how much higher they could have been, maybe even top 3. But I suppose every organization has fast risers who go down and lose guys during the year.

 

A lot of the org values are about how many guys you have in the top 100 and where they are located rather than overall depth of the org.

[Hugh2]

Bloom also inflated the Sox farm system by taking more low risk position players in order to bulk up prospect quantity.

 

Houston is a great example of this strategy. Those three number one overall picks included one shortstop and two pitchers. The shortstop has been an All Star multiple times. Both pitchers were complete busts who combined for 10 IP in the majors, with those all occurring 10 years after being drafted…

 

But it's not just the 1st pick, Houston was notorious for signing guys underslot and spreading the money around. When the Astros drafted and signed Lance MCcullers Jr in the supplemental round they gave him double slot value. They did this because Correa took 1.5 million less than Bryon Buxton at #1.

 

Some of their "busts" if you want to call it that were also parts of trades for guys like Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Ken Giles.

 

They also used their farm to trade for guys like Gatis, Maldonado, as well as drafting guys like Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers Jr, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker.

[Hugh2]

A lot of the org values are about how many guys you have in the top 100 and where they are located rather than overall depth of the org.

 

Luis Perales was well on his way to being a top 100 prospect before he went down with an injury.

[moonslav59]

Houston also hasn't had a last place farm system for very long, up until recently they've had one of the best farm systems for years. That's because they had almost an entire decade of good higher draft picks with the height being between 2012-2015 when they had the first overall pick THREE years in a row and then the 2nd pick in 2015. Those were the farm systems yielding those reinforcements, things might look very different for the Astros going forward as their window may be closing.

 

Sox have a 5th-7th best farm according to people, and this is a new development as up until recently they've sucked.

 

Henry can certainly find a way to pinch his pennies out of a competitive team but the Sox are better positioned over the next 5 years than the Astros are.

 

There are a few teams that have really good farm systems OR a nice core of recently graduated young players who have proven they belong in the bigs. The Sox are maybe one of just a handful of teams that has both, despite the lack of a solid young core of pitchers to build around.

 

To me, it is so obvious what our next step should be, and the when to do it the only debatable point. We need to build up the pitching staff. Perhaps we have already begun building the farm staff, but we cannot wait to see if we've done a good job. Even if we have done a good job, the wait would be 3-6 years from now, anyway. There are two major ways to significantly build up a ML pitching staff, with waiver wire, minor league deals and Rule 5 as long shot methods.

 

1. Free Agency: We will likely have to just bite the bullet and spend more, and not just on the rotation. Just replacing Pivetta, Jansen & martin in kind, will not be nearly enough. We spent about $6-12M a year on the rotation from 2020-2023, and the $19M spent on Gio was offset by paying for Sale to play with ATL, so the "big spending" of 2024 was a mirage. We've beaten JH to death, several times over this, and deservedly so, but it will be very hard to have a better staff, next year without spending more and spending correctly. The "correctly" aspect is often quesswork, and we've done pretty poorly in this area, but this is Brez's second winter coming up, and he should have a chance to redeem himself.

 

2. Trades: Here ie where I am adamant about the need to make a big splash. We have a few very strong positions with a bottleneck of talent- young and inexpensive talent that many teams would die for. Some teams are very good at developing young pitchers, but lack solid everyday players, at low costs. We need to find those teams a strike a deal or two. We also have some useful midtier depth players, who may be weak in one area of their game (many of defense.) We could find some teams to trade us some useful pitching depth, in exchange for these limited role players. Noting fancy, but something to give us mid season depth, when we know we will need it, eventually.

 

We also need to stop counting on players returning from the IL to give us a boost. It seems like every season, we fall into the same trap. We skimp on deadline deals, because we have hopes in guys like Hendriks, Martin and Casas returning and returning to glory. It never seems to happen.

 

That being said, I do think we have a few pitchers that can fill some meaningful roles on the 2025 pitching staff, but not the ones they needed to fill, this year. If we can count on Houck to step up his IP and be a solid 2-3 SP'er, not our #1, we should be okay. We should count on Bello as a 4-5, not a 2-3. We should count on Crawford as a 5-6, not a 3-4. We should not count on Gio for much, but certainly not as our #1. Being our #2 is asking for trouble, too. We need an ace. To me, we need an ace and a solid #3, as well as 2-3 minor league SP'er depth signings like Criswell was, last winter. I know that is wishful thinking, but we could trade for one major pitcher and sign another, then make some mid-tier trades for added depth, ending up with this:

 

SP1 ____

SP2 Houck

SP3 ____

SP4 Gio

SP5 Bello

SP6 Crawford

SP7 Criswell

SP8 _____

SP9 _____

SP10 _____ (Priester, Fitts, Dobbins, Mata, Murphy)

 

Closer _____

RP2 Hendriks

RP3 _____

RP4 Slaten

RP5 Whitlock

RP6 Winckowski

RP7 Kelly

RP8 Booser, Bernardino, Fulmer, Weissert, I Campbell, Mills, Horn

 

That's 4 major additions to the staff, while losing 3 (Pivetta, Jansen & Martin.)

 

I can't see us doing much better without at least 4 major pitching additions.

[notin]

But it's not just the 1st pick, Houston was notorious for signing guys underslot and spreading the money around. When the Astros drafted and signed Lance MCcullers Jr in the supplemental round they gave him double slot value. They did this because Correa took 1.5 million less than Bryon Buxton at #1.

 

Some of their "busts" if you want to call it that were also parts of trades for guys like Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Ken Giles.

 

They also used their farm to trade for guys like Gatis, Maldonado, as well as drafting guys like Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers Jr, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker.

 

Houston built a great farm, although it’s fairly depleted now. Their most impactful rookies this year have been Joey Loperfido (since traded) and Roniek Blanco, whose been kicking around their organization for 8 years…